Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Posted Apr 26, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Donald Trump absolutely crushed Cruz after taking all five states including Pennsylvania and Maryland. Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, but Bernie may walk away with two states. The fact that Trump and Bernie are there shows that the public is really fed up with politics as it stands. It is looking more and more like Hillary v Trump. But as they say, it’s not over ’til the fat lady sings.
Who we elect for president rarely makes a difference. Obama did everything Bush did after promising he would bring “change you could believe in.” After he was awarded the Noble Peace Prize, he tried to invade Syria. Who takes the helm rarely makes a difference because it is the bureaucracy who runs everything anyway, which began with Bush, Jr. People get so fired up as if electing one career politician will really change their lives, no less the direction of the economy. The only result is government gaining more power in the end.
Who will win in November is still a coin toss for it depends on the Republican elite. If they try to deny Trump the nomination it will split the party if not destroy it. Under normal conditions excluding a third party run, the odds favor a Republican victory. However, we are a lifetime away from November and how this shakes out has not been decided. We will have only a two party run or a strong third party. Two of our models project a landslide with Republicans exceeding 60% – very rare. One shows a dead heat and the other 55% v 51% for the Republicans. So despite the fact that Hillary is the media favorite, something else may be waiting in the wings.
Our computer models project a sharp rise of anti-establishment for the 2016 election. That forecast given back in 1985 appears to be on point. We have warned that it is typically the Republican Party that always splits. Some people wrongly believe that the Republican Party can do as it likes with its rules. The primaries are electing delegates rather than a person. Yet, the Constitution created the right for the people to vote, and they cannot ignore that vote and do as they like for that would violate 18 U.S.C. § 241. The idea that government can do as it likes AFTER providing the people with the right to vote for delegates is rather absurd. It would clearly violate the § 241.
So where we go from here will be interesting. It would be far better if Hillary won for then the establishment could not blame what we face on a non-establishment candidate elected to office. On the other hand, the government forecasts that everything goes bust next year. A career politician would just sign us away, followed by much higher taxes to kill the economy. If Trump became president, would he conform to act presidential and surrender to Capitol Hill? Time will tell. It really does not matter who is elected as it all turns down anyhow.