Posted Jul 30, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: You are quite correct Mr. Armstrong. Prime minister Boris Johnson spoke that “no deal” Brexit looks like a surety and the FTSE 100 skyrocketed and the pound took a beating against ALL mostly traded pairs. Indices (excepting for a few) are going to the moon!!
REPLY: There are actually suggestions in Brussels I have received a few calls from reliable sources that a hard BREXIT means that Brussels wants to build their version of the Berlin Wall to separate Ireland all for taxes to prevent the free flow of commerce between the Irish people. All of this because of the insanity of their demands on trade. Britain will be so much better off with a hard BREXIT.
In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports). The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018. The numbers are very clear. The UK buys more from the EU than the EU buys from the UK.
A hard BREXIT will allow Britain to enter free trade deals with Asia and the USA which are the more than 50% of its trade balance sheet. The decline in the pound will make British exports even more salable overseas.