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The British Pound & The Conservative Split

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CAC40 Y 8 8 2018

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, It seems that the conservatives have split into two parties here. It is the same nonsense that they pulled to overthrow Margaret Thatcher. I really do not understand why they think we have to be part of the EU which is so obviously a sinking ship. As we always said here, when there is a good fog in the Channel, you would never know Europe was even there.

I read your piece on how France can object and prevent a trade deal for rest of the members. France is a hopeless communist country. Their stock market is not even worthy of investment. It has never made a new high since 2000. My question is simple. Does your forecast for the pound necessitate that the conservatives really mess up this Brexit escape from the EU?


British GDP Growth since 1949 1024x780


ANSWER: The basic trade numbers show that the United States received the most British export goods last year, followed by Germany and France. The top trade partner for imports was Germany, followed by the United States and China. The UK exported £31.7bn worth of products to the US. Britain has NEVER benefited from the EU. Your economic growth has declined ever since joining back in 1973. I use to have detailed conversations about this with Margaret Thatcher. Britain’s biggest trading partner is the USA yet she cannot negotiate trade with the USA as long as it remains inside the EU. It is absolute insanity.

IBEUBP Q ARRAY 8 18 2018


Now, as for the pound, unfortunately, it continues to point lower against the dollar. Interestingly, the computer pinpointed the crisis in the Euro would begin during the 3rd quarter here in 2018 where we had both a Directional Change and the beginning of a Panic Cycle. Brexit will end Friday, March 29th, 2019. Note that there is a turning point showing up in the 1st quarter next year but the big one will be the 3rd quarter 2019.

IBBPVA Q 8 18 2018 Tek for 2020


As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53, but that does not seem likely absent war in Europe.