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The British & EU Elections – A Prelude to US?

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COMMENT: Marty, I am really impressed how Socrates even had a Double Directional Change in the British pound for election day. What it shows for the US elections seems to be a critical turning point. This is the most interesting system ever created.

All the best


REPLY: There is no question that the sweeping political upset in the EU and now in Britain is a prelude to the 2024 US election. This is getting to the point that the real trend is just to throw whoever is in power out. Here, the Conservatives have lost a string of senior core MPs who have been in power in the Tory Party. This has been a historic wipeout and justly deserved. Eight Cabinet ministers have now lost their seats in the general election, beating the previous record of seven Cabinet ministerial defeats in 1997. However, when we look closely at Labour’s victory, we see it was not resounding by far. Labour’s win was not as spectacular as the headlines appear. The vote breakdown made clear that the election was really a rejection and anger towards the Conservatives rather than embracing the policies offered by Labour. That is why you saw Labour simply calling for “change” rather than a specific promise.

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Diving deeper, we see that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party only increased its vote share by a few percentage points from its dismal 2019 performance. From this perspective, it was not a landslide. Even though it may end up with almost twice as many seats, there are cracks in the foundation of Labour’s platform. Starmer won a smaller vote share than his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, did in 2017, an election that Labour had previously lost, illustrating that this was not the landslide the LEFT seeks to create. Indeed, Labour was aided by Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, which won seat after seat against the Conservatives. This illustrated that the frustration in Britain was far more serious than most wanted to admit. The Conservatives have done nothing but try to trash Nigel at every chance they get.

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They created a viral campaign against Nigel, clipping a comment he made saying: “I was asked the other day what I was going to do for the Black community? Do you know what I said? ‘Nothing, absolutely nothing. I couldn’t give a damn…’” They did everything to slander Nigel and to misrepresent what he said to the people. The full quote was:

“I was asked the other day what I was going to do for the Black community? Do you know what I said?
“‘Nothing, absolutely nothing.’ I couldn’t give a damn whether you’re black or white, you’re gay or straight. I really don’t care. You’ll be judged by your character, you’ll be judged by your ability, you’ll be judged by are you a contributor to society or a taker out…”

The problem is that this was not so much a vote for LEFTIST policies as it was to just throw the bums out. Starmer will have to govern with a powerful majority in parliament, but the public coalition he has built will not afford him a long honeymoon period. He will be opposed by both the Conservatives and Farge’s Reform. Starmer’s predecessor Corbyn, who had been expelled by the party, actually won an independent seat in Islington North and will become the face of that opposition from the far-left.

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Starmer has never enjoyed even remotely the approval ratings that Blair and Boris Johnson had. He lacks the natural charisma of important world leaders. Starmer has promised “a decade of national renewal,” but this will only further undermine Britain’s finances. The computer is showing that unemployment is going to rise, and this aligns with the Economic Confidence Model, which points to a recession into 2028. The problem with Labour, like the Democrats, is that they are never interested in reforming spending; they always insist on taxing the upper class to redistribute to others to keep their power.


As Democratic President, Grover Cleveland was a rare politician who called upon his own party to wake up. The hated “rich” can move their capital and refuse to invest. The working class cannot hoard their labor. This is why the LEFT never learns from the past because they refuse to surrender Marxist theory that has failed every time. This is the decline and fall of the West – it is just our turn since the world fell apart in 1992.  After all, it is 31.4 years later here in 2024. Our computer models for Britain showed that 2024 would be a Double Yearly Directional Change. No worries, there are no British politicians willing to even listen to what our model is saying despite the fact that it has never been wrong on politics and geopolitical changes in trend.