Posted Jan 25, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, The last few days I’ve been remotely attending the 2019 WEC Orlando. Lo and behold, now? three months hence and six days into the new wave?I am simply astounded at hearing how you describe your own amazement with the global confluence of events occurring absolutely everywhere while also curious whether there is merely one event telltale to the Jan. 18/19 hand-off. Then, the Wuhan coronavirus breaks out big today and market graphs everywhere all hop on the toboggan to end the week. How did you ever do it?! You’re truly a man of a thousand graces and I, for one, could not be more grateful.
Breaking the WEC to stay current with the latest today, it has been conspicuously absent for me to have yet encountered the term “Black Swan” regarding this Wuhan event. Then, it occurred to me: The term itself is a bit Johnny-come-lately and would not surprise me one bit it has flown the coop over maybe most could be seeking an oil of veracity through Socrates to throw on all these choppy waters.
It would be most interesting to see the traffic stats for AE and Socrates when such events as these take off.
REPLY: What you have to understand and why I am often so critical of analysis, is that real analysis does NOT begin with a predetermined conclusion. What I am trying to reveal and why I put the very sources of what I have read into books like the Manipulating the World Economy, is because the proper way of analysis is exploration. I have sought perhaps like Leonardo DaVinci to figure out how things actually work without some predetermined agenda. DaVinci dug up dead bodies to try to discover how we function.
All the research I have done is in that vein. So it is me trying to show the world, hey look at this! My opinions and beliefs have been shaped by what I have encountered. I have never looked at research to prove a predetermined idea. That is where everyone goes wrong. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was hated by Keynes and so many others BECAUSE they do not like the way the world economy functions, and they seek to manipulate it to perform as they desire. That is why economics is no longer a science but has degenerated into a political propaganda machine.
People judge me by everyone else. This turn in the Economic Confidence Model is not about me being right, wrong, smarter than everyone else, or any other personal critique. This is about how the world truly functions and everything from weather to disease plays a role right down to this coronavirus which I am running our models to try to ascertain will this be a cyclical pandemic, or an epidemic – a big difference!
All of my research has been a quest to understand how the world truly functions. It has always been:
Hey, take a look at this! Here is order hidden behind the mask of chaos!
Every single action has an equal and opposite reaction. This is why I taught Socrates how to look for patterns and how to analyze those patterns. I have warned that the 2020 election will be notorious and will mark a rise in violence. People are unwilling to accept the vote of the people. If they lose, they blamed Russia for everything. Democracy is dying along with civility. I am not interested in being right, I wish I was wrong.
We are faced with the collapse in Democracy our model forecast back in 1985 would begin 2015.75. Politicians like Adam Schiff are the poster child for absolute corruption and dishonesty. This type of behavior has never been seen and is merely an attempt to put a Democrat in the White House who will raise taxes and devastate the business community in the spirit of “progressiveness” which is the new politically correct label for Marxism.
This is all part of the decline and fall of the West and the shift in the Financial Capital of the World back to Asia. It does not matter who wins in 2020, the other side will never accept the winner.