Why Majority of Fund Managers Cannot Beat the S&P500?


QUESTION: Marty; The Mises Institute said “Martin Armstrong is one of the most famous economic forecasters alive” and others call you the legend. I have watched your numbers and timing targets. I bought the Gold Report in 2016 and to watch gold peak exactly to the day you highlighted years ago and in so many other markets, you have proved your point. This is humanly impossible so you must have discovered a model that reveals the regularity of everything showing there is no such thing as randomness. My question is simply this. The majority of fund managers could not even beat the S&P500. Many funds had their worst year since 2009.  I made more money in the account I traded using your forecast than I did in the funds I gave to managers. Would you consider publishing funds that use you so we would know who to trust since you are not interested in going back to funds management?


ANSWER: We are considering that. As 2016 began, USA Today reported that 66% of fund managers could not match the S&P500. Back in 2014, 86% of investment managers lost money. Studies back in 2013 showed the same general ratio that only 24% of active mutual fund managers outperform the market index. Last year, 2016 was the WORST year for fund managers picking stocks. The London FT reported that active fund managers last September were lagging behind the stock market. Stockpickers in their semi-annual survey found that 90% of all managers fell short of benchmark.

This is a HUGE problem. The crisis in funds management illustrates what I have been warning about. OPINION is your worst enemy. I try on this blog to cover the world range of topics. To be a good hedge fund manager. the first thing you MUST do is be on top of everything unfolding in the world ALL the time. The tsunami waves of market corrections and breakouts ALWAYS unfold from an international perspective. Even the US media never really talked about BREXIT until about 10 days before it even took place. You cannot successfully invest or manage money and be oblivious to world trends.

We will consider licensing our model to firms for public use.