Posted Aug 19, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: All energy says spike low on monthly global market watch. Now we had a correction from 52 to $39 so that qualifies but we also had a rally from 39 to 47 so does it still qualify? If Socrates uses the last data point 47 it would not be a spike low but if it accesses the low for the month its correct. So which One?
ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is purely a pattern recognition model. It is by no means perfect because the computer is still learning for we have introduced ETFs and global stocks. Therefore, it is still registering new patterns as it collects pattern development around the world. There are wilder patterns for example in agriculture compared to bonds or stocks with respect to the percentage movement.
Nonetheless, keep in mind it is looking at this extremely dynamically with respect to the last entry weekly to yearly. That means it looks at the ENTIRE range and assumes at that close what would the pattern be if that had completed that unit of time. So a weekly will assume the week if complete each day as the week moves forward. The same is true with monthly to yearly. However, it is the full range and not just the last closing price that determines the pattern. Also, introducing global stocks has implicitly introduced within any price currency. A market will typically rise to offset the decline of a currency so that real value tends to remain unless it is perceived to be a political risk to the entire country, then sell everything.
This model does not use the last data point alone. It uses the FULL range of the current session. So it knows it made a low but a “spike low” is short lived and tends to be a thrust type move. A “spike low” is different from a “temp low” or “reaction low” inasmuch as the latter two are part of a trend.
In the case of Crude Oil, it made a high in June so a “knee jerk” is just one unit of time and “spike” is short and quick but more than just one time unit.” Both types of moves are thrust types meaning sharp and swift. These are not normal actions like a bear market finally making its low gradually. Both the “knee jerk” and the “spike low” can be followed by a resumption of the trend in motion or a retest of the previous high or low. That retest would be the reaction. Often the “knee jerk” and “spike” events may also involve the slingshot type of movement.