Forecasting & Beating the Odds

COMMENT #1: Marty, Socrates just beat every polling organization out there. The bank I work at conducted its own poll and said remain has it. Gold fell and bounced off of 1206 you said was the line in the sand and screamed up and bounced off the monthly bullish reversal which was your line above. You get the numbers and the trend and you do all this without personal opinion.  This was an amazing job. Your computer is unbeatable just like the IBM machine that beat the greatest chess champions.

Well done.


Mr Armstrong,

I wanted to congratulate you and your team – plus your computers – for the great job accomplished about Brexit. You were right once again. Brexit happened.

I have to say that i don’t still understand why, as you stated, your models are “bearish on UK”. This is why you said yes Brexit should take place but no, it can’t possibly for the outcome is negative.

You were wondering if the vote will be rigged – which it had as we know but not enough – for you expected some civil unrest and an economic decline.

Curiously enough, Tony Blair’s reaction was puzzling. He stated that “nobody should rush” to effectively start the separation process voters decided upon. Frankly, it looks fishy :

You stated Cameron had to resign for he could not stay in office after what he did. Well, let me tell you, when it comes to dirty tricks, french politcians are world class contestants. In 2005, when the french referendum about the EU constitution took place, the acting president Chirac flatly said that the referendum was “not about him”. Sarkozy said that the referendeum was worthless for if elected, he could pass it through the parliament. And did. Hollande would not resign even if only 11% of voters back him.

Cameron had something left from Churchill and Maggy. Something you find in Britain, the oldest european democracy along with Swiss, that you’ll never find in France, home of Louis XIV’s absolute monarchy.

For whatever the reason, Cameron accepted to hold the scottish and EU referendum. Yes his bet was that he would win both. But he still had the “balls” to challenge his opponents. “Balls” is a word that has vanished from the french dictionary long time ago.

In Madrid, they just say a referendum in Catalonia is “illegal” and that’s it.

For the record, the former french president of the big businesses association said this morning : “Cameron decision to hold a referendum is irresponsible, Merkel and Hollande need to act quickly”. In continental Europe, even the republican system is now a complete joke, let alone democracy. The people voice is seen as the one of irresponsability.

As you said : “We know better, go back to work”.



COMMENT #3: Marty, I bought the gold at 1203 and used your 1206 as the stop for the close. I then sold it against your monthly at 1360 and reversed. You just paid off my house. Your numbers are astonishing and Socrates’ forecast for BREXIT was unbelievable. Nobody can do this. I do not know how long it will take people to open their eyes to what you have proven. You are indeed the Forecaster. Will see you in Orlando.





REPLY: It is very gratifying to see Socrates beat the odds. Yes, people do not appreciate what can really be accomplished. Analysis is still very much in the dark ages and people try to become famous for being some sort of genius with forecasts based solely upon personal opinion. Now others are trying to name a flat trading model after a Greek to pretend they have something, which is just a joke. The cost to build this system far exceeded anything imaginable. It cannot be accomplished with a few thousand and a year. It requires a vast database and the ability to create machine learning systems, which few programmers even dare to tackle.

TabletYou are right. Deep Blue was the chess-playing computer developed by IBM. It is known for being the first computer chess-playing system to win both a chess game and a chess match against a reigning world champion under regular time controls. That proved a machine can out-think humans. Socrates has accomplished the same. The forecast it has made for the long-term over the next decade will blow everyone’s mind. BREXIT is just one confirming step in that course of direction.

They closed polls early, rigged the game with mail-in ballots, and were prepared to follow Austria and stack the referendum. But the vote was too overwhelming to prevent. Now we have elections in US, Germany, and France. The world is going to look a lot different come 2017. You cannot do this with an “I think” analysis. It is far too complicated for one person to rationalize and monitor everything, everywhere, all the time. Orlando will be, perhaps, our best conference ever. It is all coming together rather nicely. We will be providing proprietary tablets this year to all attendees of the 2016 WEC with some proprietary programs.