The Real Implications of Forecasting Are More Profound Than you Think


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended the Berlin Conference and I must say, you told us to expect a move between the Benchmarks in gold, and that the first quarter looked to be a countertrend move. You seem to be able to map out the direction of markets all the time. I am still working out the best way to read the arrays. But I have to ask. Why have you not been given the Noble Prize with such a long track record that is unbeatable?



REPLY: The fact that we can forecast any event to the day PROVES that markets are by no means RANDOM. Now, let’s begin with that statement and follow it through. If markets are NOT random, then government, economics, fund management, and all social sciences are actually incorrect sciences if you lower the real meaning of that word to be just opinion. This means central bank manipulation cannot succeed. It means government cannot control society under the Marxist-Keynesian theories, and it means that, low and behold, Adam Smith was correct after all. Giving me the Nobel Prize for proving how much is seriously in error would be tantamount to a real scientific revolution. I do not think that we are ready for that. We have to crash and burn FIRST. Then perhaps in the aftermath someone will say — hey, let’s try something different. The downside of humanity is that we want someone to be in charge. That is our own careless mistake throughout history.

Those in power BELIEVE in their ability to control society by merely writing laws. This thinking is identical to the desperate goldbugs who have dedicated their lives to try to prove me wrong on anything to justify why they were wrong for 19 years from 1980 and five years from 2011. In addition, the Dow rose from 1,000 to 18,000 since 1980 and gold cannot even exceed the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. They still write their pathetic nonsense, demonstrating they will NEVER change their minds no matter what you show them. Politicians are the same. Nothing you do to show them they are destroying the economy will change their minds. Instead, they create massive unemployment among the youth and negative interest rates that are undermining pensions and wiping out the elderly. There are those who, as Smith states, are hopelessly lost to their self-interest and REFUSE to see that they are WRONG. This is why markets must crash and burn. It is the ONLY way to promote change.


GCNYNF-D FOR 2-8-2016

Now with respect to the arrays, we are in the process of preparing a workshop series. To make it as simple as possible, just focus on the top line (composite) that represents the sum of 72 models. The bars are proportional to their time frame. As time moves forward, bars may suddenly rise. This is because they are relative to the highest bar in that time segment. The highest bar may have previously been 25 hits, but as that bar passes, the plot begins with the highest count within the current segment. If the highest count becomes only 10 hits then that bar will appear at the top as did the previous array when the 25 count bar appeared. We are looking at reflecting the count so you can see this is proportional charting, which is not relative to some fixed standard.

The change in the color only reflects the direction. Here we see on February 8, that there was a change for the 9th and then again the 12th. If we break the low of February 9 and close lower, then it is likely that three-day trend will be to the downside. Exceeding the high of the 9th and closing higher would imply the risk is a three-day rally into the next target on the 12th. These bars reflect the sum of all models, which are “turning points” rather than a specific high or low given there are cycle inversions. Other models typically determine this, and it is reflected in the text written by the computer.

I have completed some video instructions that we will be adding to the site soon.