The Numbers are the Numbers

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QUESTION: Dear Marty,

You have put your numbers out there for all to see for year end. Can they manipulate the closing due to thin markets, then reverse them to try and make you look bad?

Thank you.

ANSWER: Sorry, but it is impossible. I tried myself to elect a number when I was the largest player in a market and could not. In 1998, I sold $1 billion worth of yen against the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147 on an MIT just before the LTCM collapse. I was awarded Hedge Fund Manager of the year for those trades. The market took it with no problem at my price and then collapsed.

In 1997, I stood up against all of the bankers and won when they were trying to manipulate silver. There are much bigger forces at work than you can imagine. You cannot manipulate a single market against the trend of the whole for you would have to do every market simultaneously, assuming that could even be done.

The numbers are the numbers and nobody can change that. These theories are excuses created by people who have never traded any size. It is like a man trying to write a book on how it feels to go through childbirth. Some things can only be seen or understood with experience — not BS.

The numbers are the numbers and they are either elected or not for a REAL reason. It is NEVER one single market in isolation. It is EVERYTHING collectively. Our forecast that gold peaked in 2011 was directly linked to our forecast that the Dow would take off to new highs, which also nobody believed. Barrons reported, perhaps tongue in cheek, on June 25, 2011: “The model pegged June 13-June 14, 2011, as the start of a long-term upward trend in the market, the market obliged by notching its first weekly rise since April 29.”

Yes, there are people who hate me because they use manipulation as an excuse for their incorrect forecasts. They would better serve their readers by actually trying to forecast market movements up or down rather than preaching only one direction which is more akin to what politicians do.