Can Anyone Really Save The Economy in a Crash?

1998-ltcm-contagion

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Did anyone ever save the world financial system during the 1998 Crash or the 2008 Crash? Also, you said that government will never heed the advice of anyone. You worked on Capitol Hill and testified before Congress and was called upon to form the G5. Yet you say it is impossible to prevent anything for it always crash and burn. Then anyone who claims they saved the economy or markets cannot be telling the truth. Care to comment?

ANSWER: Back in 1985 when I was called upon with the birth of the G5, it taught me a lesson; they will call people in to PRETEND they have consulted experts, but it is just a dog & pony show. They already predetermined what they will do and absolutely nobody can step up and advise them to prevent any such crash. Absolutely no government will ever take a precautionary action in such a manner. Government only responds to events – they do not prevent them.

1998-sp500-july-20

There is absolutely nobody who can save the markets or economy in the middle of a crash – NOBODY! Why? Because these type of events are global contagions. First of all, in the case of 1998, it was a contagion that began in Russia and because they could not sell Russian assets, they sold every other market to raise cash to cover losses in Russia. So I fail to see how any person or any single country could stop a crash that is a global contagion. It would require quick action by a single entity that has global power. That does not exist!

Yes, in 1985 they called upon several analysts to pretend they listened to us but nobody directed them to create the G5. I wrote to President Reagan back then detailing why the G5 would increase volatility and fail. If you want to call me a Presidential Adviser, I think that is a stretch. If you presume you give advice which is then acted upon, there is nobody who can claim to be a Presidential Adviser to prevent anything. Sure I get calls in the midst of a crash, but there is nothing anyone can do to stop a meltdown. They are short-lived and have to play out. True, the US Treasury and the Canadian Central Bank both called be in the middle of the 1989 Japan Crash. They both asked what Socrates was saying and should they intervene. I responded no, this was isolated to Japan. Did I stop them from intervening? Or was it that they would not have intervened anyhow? The markets did not press the issue so they stood down. It was just a correct forecast – not advice that saved the day.

I wrote to Robert Rubin warning about his jawboning the dollar would create the same crisis as the 1987 Crash. Tim Geithner quickly responded saying they weren’t doing that. The 1997 Currency Crash came within weeks.

Sorry, I do not believe anyone can prevent anything or save the economy in the middle of crash. Governments are just reactionary and never pro-active.