The Black Box?

Beyond AI

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; it has become expressly clear that you have created a model which beats everything out there. Your forecasts on gold that it would rally up to 1362 and then crash was impressive as was your call for new highs in the Dow back in 2011. Nevertheless, these forecasts pale in comparison to your forecast for BREXIT and then a Trump victory. Absolutely nobody correctly forecast both no less even one. In the company I work for, all our models were prepared for a Hillary victory. We were wrong. I watched the Forecaster on a plane from Europe to the USA. I can see why the government wanted your code. This is just one giant black box. Do you ever plan to reveal how you have accomplished this forecasting record? Indeed, the movie was appropriately named the Forecaster.


ANSWER: It is more than a black box. It is a complex black box that monitors the entire world. It can see trends others cannot for it processes inputs on a multiple dimensional plane that just may be beyond human capability. You have to understand that a true deep learning machine is not a linear program that a human writes IF this THEN that ELSE do this. It has taught me to see what it sees, but it is not something that is a simple formula to achieve.

We will go public so it continues, but I prefer not to allow it to be sold to some bank or government who then keeps it for themselves. When I die, my explanation will be released, but not the code.