Posted Nov 23, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Martin, I know you have your AI in Socrates, but do you really believe that entities like DARPA with teams of people have never created a classified AI system or multiple AI systems that are suppressed from public knowledge? I think you may be overlooking governments’ ability to suppress plans as they were able to keep quiet a biological warfare take down of the globe like just happened. The only entity that I know talked about a biological weapon to take us down was Alex Jones and maybe David Icke before it happened. They are no longer conspiracy theorists to those that pay attention and were dead on target. It is going to get so crazy, I agree with you….God help us!!!
ANSWER: I am aware of how the government has designed the AI systems as well as Google and IBM. They monitor all social media and look for the average political reactions to predict civil unrest. Others assume if they collect all the data possible, intelligence will just emerge. What they fail to understand is there remains a question of also the skill set you design your system around.
What Socrates does is approaches the world through the eyes of a trader. It makes no assumptions whatsoever about any relationship be it interest rates and the direction of the markets or what will even be the next generation of energy after fossil fuels. Just look at the chart of the gold/silver ratio. You cannot make an assumption that even gold and silver will rise together. During a war, even nickel becomes more valuable than silver.
Socrates has no bias. I taught it only how to analyze and then fed everything into it. For all I know, Azuki Beans in Japan could become the next energy source in 2100. The first forecast it made that astonished me was it forecast in 1980 that Britain would see its currency going to Par with the dollar going into 1985 and that its economy would invert and align with the US rather than continental Europe. By 1980, the North Sea Oil discovery of 1974 had altered the capital flows.
I had to teach language to Socrates so I could even question how in the hell did it come up with that forecast. In the early 80s, I struck a deal with Dragon systems which back then was hardware – today that is just software. Socrates then had speech.
AI is only capable of doing what its creator envisioned. AI does not simply evolve as in some SciFi Movie. You must teach it methodology or you will still end up with gibberish. IBM’s Watson was supposed to blow everything out of the water and find the cure for cancer and it has failed miserably. IBM’s Watson was simply a giant neural net. I have explained before that I toyed with that back in the 1980s and quickly saw that it would lead nowhere. Real Artificial Intelligence is something that learns and analyzes on its own to create its own conclusion. But it must be taught methodology like teaching a child to read and write. In all honesty, 99.999% of what people present as AI are simply expert systems that can be distinguished rather easily because all they are doing is looking up some subject from rule-based systems.
IBM’s Watson could search the entire internet and gather every piece of information possible. That was the easy part. What IBM lacked was the expertise in how to do research. How do you know that one piece of info is the key or more important than another? They lacked the ability to create a real analysis capability.
Neural Nets were a great hope that somehow you just throw in all this information, shake well, and out will magically appear the answer. The presumption was that our minds are just supercomputers and they ignored perhaps the critical understanding of what makes one person brilliant at math and another a brilliant artist who can’t count beyond 1,000.
I am a trader. I had to analyze markets globally to be a hedge fund manager. I had a front-row seat in observing how this all came about and clients around the world who taught me every market had to be viewed in terms of their currency. On our Business Platform, you can plat any instrument in any currency and then run the analysis in that view. This allows clients to use Socrates as they need to from a global perspective.