Posted Oct 23, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I am sure you are aware that the Chinese position just adopted was to create AI systems that would dominate the industry and surpass that lead of the USA. What is your view of how this will unfold?
ANSWER: AI can be used in so many fields and it will be much better wherever the issue involves a human opinion. Eliminating the bias and prejudice even those which are so subtle will bring huge benefits.
However, AI, even the IBM Watson, are capable of dealing with many fields. However, when it comes to forecasting the world economy and markets, the complexity is beyond even that of what these AI platforms can accomplish. The structure of AI and machine learning today is still too primitive to truly handle the global economy.
The machines cannot learn without the database. That is when Genius Failed in 1998. They won the Nobel Prize for a model that blew up the world. Why? They lacked the database and the experience of what really had to be captured.
I have been approached by a few who want to partner up to bring Socrates to the world. It is a huge task. Just have not found the right mix. Someone has to bring talent to the table, not just money.
Even with MiFID II, there is a rash of people trying to come out with an AI system to trade. The problem is they have no track record and hypotheticals do NOT cut it with the big institutions. Nobody will use such a model for if it fails, they lose their job for even letting it in the door. It’s a CYA issue.
So it is only something they can sell the average investor who is gullible. They will never even get a meeting in a major boardroom. We do ONLY because of a 40-year track record.