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A Bear Market is Not Likely in the Most Hated Bull Market in History?

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2008 Financial Crash

Well, here we go again. These people who claim to be experts are warning that it is the fallout from the global coronavirus outbreak that has caused the crash and one says this could be “worse than the financial crisis” of 2008. Another analyst claims to have forecast the 2008 Financial Crisis is now saying the idea of a major global recession “doesn’t sound too farfetched.” These people who always claim the market will crash then claim to have forecast the crash but only one out of 50 such forecasts is ever correct. They then also market themselves to please buy their newsletter because they were right.

Die Welt

The German top newspaper, Die Welt, commented on the stock market decline mentioning our perspective correctly February 28, 2020:

The crucial question for investors is now whether the stock market is drifting into a bear market, whether it is losing 20 percent or more, or whether there is a quick and strong recovery. Martin Armstrong currently believes a bear market is unlikely: “The rally that started in 2009 was the most hated rally in stock market history,” says the capital market expert from independent research firm Armstrong Economics.



Yes, I have forecast all the great crashes. That was actually the easy part. The difference in such forecasts sometimes goes over everyone’s head. The 1987 Crash I forecast even that the market would fall basis the S&P500 futures from 286 to 181 in two days. True, that impressed even me. But the fact that the crash came on October 19th, 1987 which was the very day of the Economic Confidence Model confirmed what all my other models were screaming – we would make new highs by the peak of the ECM in December 1989. Both the NewYorker and even Bloomberg News had to admit that we correctly forecast the 1987 Crash. But the important part was that the US market would make new highs from the 1987 Crash but the Nikkei would not from the 1989 event.


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That forecast may have impressed me, but what impressed the entire world was not forecasting the crash, but that the market would then make NEW HIGHS by 1989. Then what impressed our clients, even more, was the fact that the December 1989 high not merely forecast that Japanese Bubble top, but that market would NOT make new real value highs, which was SUBSTANTIALLY a different forecast from the 1987 Crash.


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As far as the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis, Barron’s commented on my forecast that the market would move back into a long-term bull market. They reported that ONLY because they thought it was nuts. Not a single US major financial newspaper would ever report this forecast because they too filter the news. The overseas press will report, but not the American press. They prefer to put forth the fake forecasts for they are giving them the news they want to print.

So to all the people who ask why the press will never report our forecasts, all I can say is that it would upset the apple-cart. They are only selling media. They need people willing to talk all the time so they are usually the people who do not really have a serious business and are in constant search for new clients.