Skip to content

The Value Decade – Revolt or Revolution

Dow Jones Earnings Book Value 1937 1982

QUESTION: Is it true that Warren Buffett used your analysis from the 1980s, a pivotal decade when he became a billionaire and a widely recognized figure, to start the whole takeover boom? And do you agree with his calls for a crash?

SD

Buffett Warren

ANSWER: I have no idea. Yes, I was presenting those charts at various conferences, from Cycle Foundation to COMPUTRAC. Granted, that was the ultimate decade for value investing. I think he began looking for value in the ’70s. He didn’t get the idea from me originally. He may have been influenced by my forecasts during the ’80s. But I cannot confirm or deny that claim.

WSJ 1983 MAA 1

 

1985EconomistAdd Full R rotated e1653066292483

 

 

The ’80s were a wild period. I was named the highest paid analyst, called in during the Plaza Accord, and the Presidential Commission on the 1987 Crash. I am sure we were both aware of each other. That is all I can say on this subject. I think his value investing began in the ’70s entirely on his own.

Buffet Buys Silver

 

I believe Buffett is more of a domestic investor, whereas I was always international. He and I came head-to-head only on the silver trade he did with Phibro.

As Europe burned, capital moved here. Louis XVI initially failed to grasp the uprising’s seriousness. According to the well-known account, on the night of July 14, 1789 (or the morning of July 15), the Duke de La Rochefoucauld-Liancourt brought the king news of the storming of the Bastille. Louis XVI reportedly asked, “Is this a revolt?” and Liancourt replied, “No, Sire, it is a revolution.”

France 10 yr M 10 21 26

Cyclically, a revolt should continue into November, since it began in France in mid-September 2026, initially triggered by student protests over poor school conditions, then escalating into nationwide violent unrest with the Yellow Vests and economic issues over fuel costs. Even the 10-yr rate showed an important turning point in September, with a Directional Change. If this continues beyond November, then Europe is in serious trouble.

Rule_of_Law_is_Silent_in_Time_of_War

We will be looking at how capital moves during times of war, but also how the rule of law goes silent during war. Nations were confiscating assets of private citizens all based on the ethnicity or nationality. Most people heard of the Japanese prison camps of 120,000 people. But they confiscated all their property, land, businesses, etc. The government “requisitioned” people to turn over the gold. This report will be part of the WEC. 99% of the people have no idea of the risks with war.