Posted Nov 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
All core markets finished lower in Asia today, with the possible exception of the Nikkei that closed almost unchanged. The Hang Seng closed small down but was Shanghai that lost -0.5% which after the data was actually not that bad! Today we saw Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Investment Spending and it was the talk for the day as it appears the government crack-down on debt is well underway. Industrial Production fell 0.1% short of expectations at 6.2%, Retail Sales at 10% and Investment from 9.2% down to just 5.6 in October. However, even given todays data releases China will comfortably meet the governments 6.5% projections. The Resources decline hindered the Australian ASX with a near 1% fall on the day. The SENSEX did open better but was pulled lower by all other markets. Eventually, after a brief attempt to rally mid-afternoon, the index closed on its days low -0.3%.
Early talk was of the declining price of cable, trading around 1.3050 (-0.5%) at one stage after UK inflation data was released. A 3% print is not matching the scare that the BOE warned may print, but I guess it saves on the price of a postage stamp! Sterling did recover towards the end of the day after rumours that BREXIT offers may require approval but also US tax delays could hinder dollar strength. The Euro traded well all day after German GDP rose 0.8% , well above the 0.6% forecast. This figure however did not help Europe’s core equity indices however, as both DAX and CAC saw declines of around -0.4%. FTSE finished almost unchanged whilst Spain’s IBEX closed the weaker of the bunch down -0.6%.
GE was again the headline conversation for US markets with an 8% decline yet again today. The days lows were hit early and the remainder a result prices actually recovered. It did look scary at one stage mid morning but the worst was over. There is still uncertainty surrounding tax proposals and its this lack of clarity that markets fear. The Producer Prices were a welcome sign and again this encourages more curve flattening.
2’s closed 1.69% (+1bp), 10’s 2.38% (-3bp), 30’s 2.83% (-4bp), Bunds 0.39% (-2bp), France 0.75% (-3bp), Italy 1.81% (-1bp), Greece 5% (+2bp), Turkey 11.98% (u/c), Portugal 1.95% (-1bp), Spain 1.52% (u/c) and Gilts 1.32% (-1bp).