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Market Talk – November 11, 2021

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ASIA:

China’s inflation problem is getting worse day by day. The cost of goods leaving China’s factories surged by another record rate last month, and there are increasing signs that consumers are starting to feel the pain. The Producer Price Index jumped 13.5% in October from a year ago, accelerating from September’s 10.7%, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Last month’s increase was already the fastest since the government began releasing such data in the mid-1990s, Reuters reported. China’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in October from a year ago, double the rate of the previous month and the fastest pace of increase since September 2020. Last week, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a notice directing local governments to encourage families to stock up on food and other daily essentials as bad weather, energy shortages and Covid-19 restrictions threatened to disrupt supplies. The sudden warning sparked panic buying among the public and frenzied online speculation.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 178.68 points or -0.61% to 29,106.78
  • Shanghai decreased 14.54 points or -0.41% to 3,492.46
  • Hang Seng increased 183.01 points or 0.74% to 24,996.14
  • ASX 200 decreased 10.30 points or -0.14% to 7,423.90
  • Kospi decreased 32.29 points or -1.09% to 2,930.17
  • SENSEX decreased 80.63 points or -0.13% to 60,352.82
  • Nifty50 decreased 27.05 points or -0.15% to 18,017.20

 

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • AUDUSD decreased 0.0045 or -0.61% to 0.73273
  • NZDUSD decreased 0.00640 or -0.90% to 0.70596
  • USDJPY increased 0.99 or 0.87% to 113.93
  • USDCNY increased 0.0078 or 0.12% to 6.39846

 

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 20.09 USD/t oz. or 1.10% to 1,851.57

Silver increased 0.370 USD/t. oz or 1.53%% to 24.650

 

Some economic news from last night:

China:

CPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.1% to 0.7%

CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 0.7% to 1.5%

PPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 10.7% to 13.5%

 

Some economic news from today:

China:

M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Oct) increased from 8.3% to 8.7%

New Loans (Oct) decreased from 1,660.0B to 826.2B

Japan:

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) increased from 71.9% to 81.5%

 

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

 

Britain’s economy risks stagnation and sticky inflation over the coming years due to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks and headwinds from Brexit, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) think tank warned on Tuesday. Inflation is on course to hit around 5% next year, while Britain’s economy looks set to grow by only 1.7% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024 after rebounding by 6.9% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022 after the COVID-19 pandemic, NIESR said. In the short term, richer households were unlikely to become more willing to spend the savings they built up in the pandemic, NIESR said.

 

The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:

  • CAC 40 increased 1.89 points or 0.03% to 7,045.16
  • FTSE 100 increased 66.11 points, or 0.91% to 7,340.15
  • DAX 30 increased 27.36 points or 0.17% to 16,067.83

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.0112 or -0.96% to 1.4808
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.0153 or -1.13% to 1.34063
  • USDCHF increased 0.0067 or 0.74% to 0.9179

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German CPI (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.0% to 0.5%

German CPI (YoY) (Oct) increased from 4.1% to 4.5%

German HICP (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.3% to 0.5%

German HICP (YoY) (Oct) increased from 4.1% to 4.6%

 

US/AMERICAS:

The push to electric vehicles is in full swing. Rivian Automotive is entering the Nasdaq at an expected value of $115 per share, marking the company’s valuation at $98 billion. That’s a 47% increase from the company’s IPO at $78 per share. Amazon currently owns a 20% stake in the company and has invested $1.3 billion in the automaker so far. Ford holds a 12% stake, and Cox  Automotive holds over 5%. Amazon has already ordered 100,000 Rivian cars to be delivered before 2030, with 10,000 vehicles becoming available by next year. The company’s fully electric pickup truck, the R1T, marks the first of its kind.

Wall Street strategists are anticipating a rate hike sooner than expected after this week’s CPI reading. The general consensus was an anticipated rate hike next September, but now analysts forecast a hike as soon as July. October’s CPI reading of 6.2% YoY marked a new high and the Fed has said repeatedly they would implement new strategies if inflation ran too high, without providing what that exact number would be. Rates currently stand from 0% to 0.25%.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 240.04 points or -0.66% to 36,079.94
  • S&P 500 declined 38.54 points or -0.82% to 4,646.71
  • Nasdaq declined 263.84 points or -1.66% to 15,622.71
  • Russell 2000 declined 37.71 points or -1.55% to 2,389.58

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 132.59 points or -0.61% to 21,461.93
  • TSX 60 declined 7.07 points or -0.54% to 1,290.78

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 432.43 points or 0.41% to 105,967.51

 

 

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a negative day today:

 

  • Crude Oil decreased 2.85 USD/BBL or -3.39% to 81.3000
  • Brent decreased 2.19 USD/BBL or -2.58% to 82.5900
  • Natural gas decreased 0.04 USD/MMBtu or -0.80% to 4.9390
  • Gasoline decreased 0.0798 USD/GAL or -3.36% to 2.2954
  • Heating oil decreased 0.056 USD/GAL or -2.23% to 2.4521

 

 

Top commodity gainers: Oat (3.32%), Corn (2.43%), Wheat (3.15%), and Palm Oil (2.67%)

Top commodity losers: Crude Oil (-3.39%), Steel (-3.33%), Gasoline (-3.36%), and Brent (-2.58%)

 

The above data was collected around 16:49 EST on Wednesday.

 

BONDS:

Japan 0.059%(+0bp), US 2’s 0.52% (+0.096%), US 10’s 1.575%(+13.57bps); US 30’s 1.9156%(+0.09%), Bunds -0.248% (+4.8bp), France 0.109% (+5.9bp), Italy 0.938% (+9.3bp), Turkey 18.55% (+20bp), Greece 1.135% (+4.9bp), Portugal 0.382% (+7.5bp), Spain 0.495% (+10.89bp) and UK Gilts 0.9250% (+10.1bp).