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Market Talk – April 13, 2022

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China’s imports unexpectedly fell in March as COVID-19 curbs across large parts of the country hampered freight arrivals and weakened domestic demand, while export growth slowed, prompting analysts to expect a worsening in trade in the second quarter. Inbound shipments fell 0.1% in March from a year earlier, marking the first decline since August 2020, customs data showed on Wednesday. That compared with a 15.5% gain in the first two months of the year and an 8% increase forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. The decline was broad-based. China’s imports of crude oil tumbled 14% in March, and gas import volumes were the lowest since October 2020. Purchases of copper fell 8.8%, as COVID outbreaks hurt manufacturing, and industrial demand for some raw materials remained soft.

India’s retail inflation accelerated to near 7% year-on-year in March, its highest in 17 months and above the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance band for a third straight month, putting pressure on it to raise policy rates. Annual consumer price-based inflation in March touched 6.95%, pushed by rising prices of fuel products and some food items. The print was higher than the 6.35% year-on-year forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, and 6.07% in the previous month.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:• NIKKEI 225 increased 508.51 points or 1.93% to 26,843.49• Shanghai decreased 26.51 points or -0.82% to 3,186.82• Hang Seng increased 55.24 points or 0.26% to 21,374.37• ASX 200 increased 25.00 points or 0.34% to 7,479.00• Kospi increased 49.73 points or 1.86% to 2,716.49• SENSEX decreased 237.44 points or -0.41% to 58,338.93• Nifty50 decreased 54.65 points or -0.31% to 17,475.65The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:• AUDUSD decreased 0.00343 or -0.46% to 0.74222• NZDUSD decreased 0.00783 or -1.14% to 0.67802• USDJPY   increased 0.229 or 0.18% to 125.687• USDCNY  increased 0.00097 or 0.02% to 6.37895Precious Metals:• Gold increased 11.53 USD/t oz. or 0.59% to 1,978.12• Silver increased 0.384 USD/t. oz or 1.52% to 25.730Some economic news from last night:China:Exports (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 16.3% to 14.7%Imports (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 15.5% to -0.1%Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) decreased from 115.95B to 47.38BJapan:Reuters Tankan Index (Apr) increased from 8 to 11Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Feb) decreased from 5.1% to 4.3%Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Feb) decreased from -2.0% to -9.8%M2 Money Stock (YoY) decreased from 3.6% to 3.5%M3 Money Supply (Mar) increased from 2,019.2T to 2,025.0TSouth Korea:Unemployment Rate (Mar) remain the same at 2.7%Australia:Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Apr) increased from -4.2% to -0.9%New Zealand:FPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from -0.1% to 0.7%RBNZ Interest Rate Decision increased from 1.00% to 1.50%Some economic news from todayIndia:Exports (USD) (Mar) increased from 34.57B to 42.22BImports (USD) (Mar) increased from 55.45B to 60.74BTrade Balance (Mar) increased from -20.88B to -18.51BEUROPE/EMEA:

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, using his first public comments on the conflict in more than a week to vow his troops would win and to goad the West for failing to bring Moscow to heel. In the strongest signal to date that the war will grind on for longer, Putin said Kyiv had derailed peace talks by staging what he said were fake claims of Russian war crimes and by demanding security guarantees to cover the whole of Ukraine.

Finland will take a decision about whether to apply to join the U.S.-led NATO alliance in the next few weeks, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Wednesday, underlining a shift in security perspectives since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland and fellow Nordic state and neighbour Sweden are close partners with NATO but have shied away from joining the 30-member alliance, founded in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Public opinion in Finland has taken a U-turn on NATO, with the most recent poll by private broadcaster MTV showing 68% of respondents in favour of joining, with only 12% against.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:• CAC 40 increased 4.73 points or 0.07% to 6,542.14• FTSE 100 increased 4.14points or 0.05% to 7,580.80• DAX 30 decreased 48.51 points or -0.34% to 14,076.44The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:• EURUSD increased 0.00397 or 0.37% to 1.08643• GBPUSD increased 0.00603 or 0.46% to 1.30617• USDCHF increased 0.00127 or 0.14% to 0.93409Some economic news from Europe today:UK:House Price Index (YoY) increased from 9.6% to 10.9%Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 5.2% to 5.7%Core CPI MoM (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 0.9%Core PPI Output (YoY) (Mar) increased from 9.9% to 12.0%Core PPI Output (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.7% to 2.0%Core RPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 8.3% to 9.1%Core RPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 1.0%CPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 1.1%CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 6.2% to 7.0%CPI, n.s.a (Mar) increased from 115.80 to 117.10PPI Input (MoM) (Mar) increased from 1.8% to 5.2%PPI Input (YoY) (Mar) increased from 15.1% to 19.2%PPI Output (YoY) (Mar) increased from 10.2% to 11.9%PPI Output (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.9% to 2.0%RPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 1.0%RPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 8.2% to 9.0%Spain:Spanish CPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 3.0%Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 7.6% to 9.8%Spanish HICP (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 3.9%Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar) increased from 7.6% to 9.8%Italy:Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) increased from -2.7% to 3.3%Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) increased from -3.4% to 4.0%US/AMERICAS:

Wednesday brought more alarming inflation news. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US rose 1.4% in March, marking an 11.2% YoY increase. These levels have not been seen since 2010. Core PPI advanced 0.9% MoM, far surpassing the 0.5% estimate, and increased 7% on a YoY basis. Producer demand rose 2.3% in March on a monthly basis, while service prices rose 0.9%. Energy expectedly experienced a sharp rise after advancing 5.7%, and food prices rose 2.4%.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow advanced 344.23 points or 1.01% to 34,564.59
  • S&P 500 advanced 49.14 points or 1.12% to 4,446.59
  • Nasdaq advanced 272.02 points or 2.03% to 13,643.59
  • Russell 2000 advanced 38.17 points or 1.92% to 2,025.1


Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced 122.61 points or 0.56% to 21,838.02
  • TSX 60 advanced 4.43 points or 0.34% to 1,319.34


Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced 635.1 points or 0.55% to 116,781.96

ENERGY:The oil markets had a green day today:• Crude Oil increased 2.14 USD/BBL or 2.13% to 102.740• Brent increased 2.52 USD/BBL or 2.41% to 107.16• Natural gas increased 0.289 USD/MMBtu or 4.33% to 6.9690• Gasoline increased 0.0904 USD/GAL or 2.87% to 3.2442• Heating oil increased 0.1186 USD/GAL or 3.42% to 3.5830The above data was collected around 11:42 EST on Wednesday   • Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (3.42%) and Natural Gas (4.33%), Orange Juice(5.81%),  Zinc (2.95%)• Top commodity losers:  Lumber(-1.40%), Coffee (-3.32%), Aluminum(-1.32%) and Oat (-1.18%)The above data was collected around 11:49 EST on Wednesday.BONDS: Japan 0.236%(-0.4bp), US 2’s 2.32% (-0.088%), US 10’s 2.6666% (-6.04bps); US 30’s 2.78% (-0.028%), Bunds 0.770% (-2bp), France 1.269% (-3bp), Italy 2.382% (-2.9bp), Turkey 22.84% (-24bp), Greece 2.842% (-1.6bp), Portugal 1.788% (+12.5bp); Spain 1.715% (-1bp) and UK Gilts 1.81% (+0.6bp).