The German election takes place tomorrow, with Chancellor Angela Merkel the favorite to defend her position against Martin Schulz for a fourth term in power. The AfD will for the first time win seats Bundestag elections. The the union parties and the SPD are losing approval while Merkel’s party, CDU / CSU, polls at just 34%, which is two percentage points less than the last election. The SPD is polling at just 21% with the left at 11% and the FDP at 9%. The AfD, according to the opinion research institute Insa, is gaining two points and comes to 13%, the Greens increase one point to 8%.
Polls currently show that Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party – with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – will be the largest party after the Bundestag election, but they will fall short of a majority once again so there will have to be coalition government with the SDP. This is what is harming Germany and Europe for it gives the impression that Merkel has a mandate when she cannot win 51% of the German vote.
Therefore, the wildcard remains the AfD and if they come in at a higher level than expected, there will be an ongoing battle that will turn against Merkel in the next two years. If the AfD come in above 15%, then the shape of the coalition government may be different than expected. As one German politician put it, you will have to drag Merkel out by the hair to get her to to leave office. Therefore, expect no change in the course of direction for Europe. As long as Merkel is still there, it will be more of the same but worse with ever increasing taxes and more deflation. You cannot reverse the course of Europe without changing the leadership.