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Armstrong Economics 101

The Economic Confidence Model & the Hidden Order Behind the Chaos

  COMMENT: Marty, I have been with you since 1987. I have watched your Economic Confidence Model blow everyone out of the water, and your critics are just...

War & Migration = Disease ALWAYS!

COMMENT: Hi Marty: Long time no see, hope you’re doing well.  I’m forwarding a short article to you.  The one virologist who’s been right about...

Second US Commerce Dept Report – GDP Stagnant

The US economy contracted by 0.2% from January through March of 2025. This is the second Q1 estimate provided by the US Commerce Department, with a third on the way...

LA Hotel and Airline Employees – Min. Wage $38 Per Hour

California routinely selects groups of minimum wage workers and decides that their skill set is now worth tenfold. The state in general increased the minimum wage...

The Theory of UNCERTAINTY

QUESTION: What is your view of Frank Knight’s view of risk versus uncertainty? HL ANSWER: Frank Knight was an influential economist and founder of the Chicago...

PRIVATE BLOG – Stocastic Advance Warnings (PRO)

PRIVATE BLOG – Stocastic Advance Warnings (PRO) Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more,...

PRIVATE BLOG – VIX & the Stochastic & Correlating (PRO)

PRIVATE BLOG – VIX & the Stochastic & Correlating (PRO) Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or...

Bessent Disagrees on US Credit Downgrade

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rebuked Moody’s lowered rating of US credit from AAA to AA1. “First of all, I think that Moody’s is a lagging...

$10 Trillion in Capital Flows to US?

President Donald Trump completed a successful tour of the Middle East that resulted in foreign investments surmounting to over $3.2 trillion. President Trump...

Moody’s US Downgrade AAA to AA1

Moody’s Investor Service downgraded the United States’ credit rating from a top-tier rating of AAA to AA1 due to rising government debt. Fitch Ratings lowered...