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Timing on CBT US Bond

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Bonds indicate a potential turning point as we move into August.

The week beginning July 29th is indicated as a “Panic Cycle” week. Panic cycles suggest the potential for an outside reversal week. If bonds trade down into this timeframe, taking out the previous week’s low, it could indicate some unexpected information will cause bonds to rally strongly, closing the week above the previous week’s high.

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Reinforcing this move, the week of August 5th is indicated as a potential turning point according to Bifurcation. See the bond chart. The week of August 5th is the point in time where the line bisects the arc. (See “Models & Methodogies” for a complete explanation of Bifurcation) .

Don’t get confused. Both the Panic Cycle and Bifurcation are undoubtedly referring to the same turning point. It is possible that a Low in Bonds takes place the week of July 29th and major part of the rebound doesn’t start until the week of August 5th.

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If this is not enough evidence for you, then you may also be interested to know that the week of July 29th is also 30 weeks down from High; a 30 week cycle has provided temporary Lows and Highs over the last few years as part of a larger 60 week cycle. Though it is not at all clear that the 60 week cycle will continue to operate in the future, it is interesting 30 weeks down from High fits nicely in time with the Panic Cycle and Bifurcation.

“YES BUT….what happens if Bonds trade up into the end of July?”….. Easy. Just reverse the direction. If bonds trade up into the end of July they should come off for a further leg down as we move into August. Our Timing Models don’t give direction, they just suggest a turning point. To know the direction you should watch bonds closely as we move closer to the end of July. Advance warning on direction is also supplied by our Reversal System (See Reversal System, How To Use The Reversal System, and Defining The Gap).