The thing you have to understand about market movement is that we can forecast two type of events depending upon the data being employed. What are turning points, is typically a common question. The timing arrays do NOT forecast a specific event be it a high or a low, it forecasts TURNING POINTS, which can be measured generally on the intraday event or on a closing event. As illustrated here, sometimes the highest closing and the intraday can be as much as 4 units of time apart in separation. So that applies on a fractal basis from Daily to Yearly level.
Keep in mind that market movement is extremely complex. You should approach this subject ONLY if you can observe everything around you and notice how things are connected. If you are expect just BUY and SELL without comprehending how everything functions, then this is not the model for you. What you are being presented with here is the tools to allow you to listen to what the markets are telling you. Oh, they do speak to us. They are by no means random walking like some drunk through the park late at night. Nothing takes place which is disconnected from the whole.
The first lesson to grasp here is that markets are indeed FRACTAL in nature. The patterns replicate through all levels of time. We designed this model so you can differentiate short-term counter-trend moves from real world changes in trend. So we look for actual changes in trend must be confirmed from Monthly to Yearly Models. The Daily level offers the greatest “noise” whereby we witness shifts bullish and bearish all the time. The Weekly level offers more of a counter-trend move which might be sustainable for a few months before resuming the long-term trend.
How to Use the Forecasting Arrays
The Forecasting Arrays are a great visual display generated by our computer models. These arrays are a composite of 72 models in total which cover trading patterns, volatility, Directional Changes, Panic Cycles, and of course the turning points from an immediate to long-term basis. There are two primary technological methods being incorporated here. First we have turning points which are cyclical based. Then we have Pattern Recognition which is reflected in the Direction Change. Our Forecasting Arrays are the sum of all models. As such, they cannot be reverse engineered since they are by no means based upon a single model or formula.
The first thing you should understand is that the charting is proportional, and not explicit. For example, lets say that January had 30 hits from 72 models. That would be the highest bar. Then January passes and May show up as the highest bar when it was previously half that of January when previously charted. The bars are plotted on a relative basis to the time frame selected. So if the highest bar has 15 hits within that 12 units of time, it will be at the top. As time moves forward and a new target enters the window with 25 hits, it will now appear at the top and the bar with 15 hits will appear as if it diminished. So the charting is RELATIVE and not explicit.
The MOST IMPORTANT bar to pay attention to for TURNING POINTS will be the top bar labeled COMPOSITE. This where we have the sum of all models. You can be declining in price as the bars are rising. They do not reflect direction, but changes in trend. Looking at the above example, a decline into May would imply a May low with June then showing a change in that trend which may be a bounce. Likewise, if the market was rallying into May, then June would imply a decline. This is a change in trend we call Turning Points which can be intraday or on a closing basis.
CYCLICAL TIMING MODELS
There are two primary types of cyclical wave formations – the Transverse Wave and the Longitudinal Wave structure containing patterns. The computer models are further divided between fixed cycles and cyclical activity determined entirely by the computer.
The EMPIRICAL (hard wired) transverse frequencies of a fixed duration are displayed in a separate line both short and long-term frequencies. Then there is the far more complex dynamic longitudinal wave frequencies which fluctuate in duration. These are entirely ascertained by the computer on its own without predetermining the frequencies. This is displayed in the second row from the top listed as Composite for here this line reflects ALL the various cycle frequencies the computer discovers without limitation. These are the two primary types of cyclical activity.
Gold Daily January 1980
The top line is the Composite, which is the sum of the cyclical models below including both Transverse and Longitudinal based cyclical timing models. As state above, this is the primary line to watch for this reflects the most important turning points which can be a high or low. You obviously know the difference as you are moving into that target date.
Pictured here in Figure #1 is an Array for gold in January 1980 at the major high compiled January 9, 1980. We can see that this picked January 21 as the high. There were two sets of back to back Directional Change targets. The first was 5 days BEFORE the high and clearly marked the breakout to the upside which the second caught the actual high on the 21st of January. That morning, Gold opened up limit at $875 on the spot closing at $850 after falling to $831. It had been just $597 at the low the week of January 7 and rallied about $300 into January 21 st. We can see that the top Composite picked the 21st as did the Empirical timing model which is Transverse in design.
The Directional Change can be by itself a very fascinating tool. The Directional Change can at times be the beginning of a breakout to a new trading level (major thrust) in one direction which the market is making a break to a new plateau in price movement up or down. However, at other times, Directional Changes can mark the high or low and the culmination of a trend. The Daily Array on gold pictured at the top showed two Directional Changes back to back which picked the major high in Gold during 1980.
The Directional Change can at times be the beginning of a breakout to a new trading level as was the case for the week of 11/02/2014 in the Dow. This was confirming that the Dow would take off to a new plateau in price movement.
Directional Changes can also mark the high or low and the culmination of a trend as illustrated at the top with the Daily gold for January 19080. Here in Figure #4 look at the weeks of 07/14/2014 and 12/22/2014. The Directional Change for the week of 07/14 was followed by a major turning point 2 weeks later both on the top Composite and the Long-Term, which produced the spike low. We see the same type of pattern where the Directional Change of 12/22 was preceded by the major turning point for 12/08 which was also the key spike low in Figure #3.
The week of 01/19/2015 produced the highest closing for that reaction with the intraday high the week before (Figure #2). Then the Dow fell into the intraday low two weeks later.
A Panic Cycle is a target that normally exceeds either one direction up or down forcefully, but it is also a target that can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL either to the upside or downside (meaning it exceeds the the previous session high and penetrates the low). Hence, a Panic Cycle can be a move either to the upside whereby it begins lower than the previous session and then exceeds the high or a outside reversal to the downside whereby it begins strong exceeding the previous high and then penetrating the previous low. This differs from Volatility which can be measured in three primary different manners (see below). Here in Figure #5 we can see that gold brokeout to the upside the week of February 8th in line with our Panic Cycle target for that wee.
Volatility Models are dependent upon how you are measuring volatility. Do you define that as close to close, from last night’s close top the morning open, or do you measure volatility as the percentage movement that day between the high and the low? Illustrated above in Figure #6 we have plotted these three main types of volatility so you can see there is a huge difference. Obviously, the definition of volatility being plotted and forecast can be correct in one manner and a non-event in another. It all depends upon your definition.
There is overnight volatility reflected in the percentage movement from the previous session closing to the current session opening. Then there is intraday volatility measured by the distance between the high and low of the trading session. Then there is closing volatility from one session to the next. We can see that these three perspectives alone provide completely different forecasts.
Here is a detailed explanation of the Forecasting Array.
The Long-Term view perspective of the 1996 forecast for Crude oil into 2007
Here is the Yearly Array for the DAX we published in 1999. You can see that even on the Yearly Level, the computer did a fairly good job in picking the years for turning points.
The May high in the Dow was on an intraday basis and this lined up with the Directional Change. The next target was August which provided the low, October was the Panic to the Upside. November was favored as we moved closer to the people for the turning point whereas here that showed up at first on the Empirical level (longitudinal or fixed frequency).