QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I recently read a book which claims that the disparity of wealth among nations is something recently unfolding post-Columbus. The thesis claims that before 1500, the income differences between nations were small. It proposes that only since the discovery of America, the interplay between geography, globalization, technological change, and economic policy has determined […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you think that Hillary can win? And if so, what would happen? Thanks RP ANSWER: Our model is not unanimous for Trump. There is technically a 25% chance that Hillary could win, which one of our four models projects a Democratic victory. However, if you look at the mainstream channels from […]

Rating Agencies Testify Before Congress for their AAA-Ratings after 2007 Standard & Poors downgraded United Kingdom (UK), which is comprised of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, from AAA to AA. This shows emotional and political bias rather than any substantial change in economics; they are making good on their political threats of 2015. S&P […]

The Nikkei could not hold the late US rally and as the cash market opened the weakness returned from the opening, especially having just seen the weaker than expected Machinery Orders. Gaping lower, we did see a small bounce but not enough energy to look for a positive close. Eventually the index closed around 1% […]

(feel free to forward this article to everyone) The Guardian headline is supporting government propaganda that 9 out of 10 economists warn of a dire future if Britain exits the EU. For a newspaper who published Snowden, I would expect a lot more integrity on this issue. The Guardian is reporting propaganda on a grand […]

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, (a) You say that the world is losing confidence in governments and I do not question that for a minute. (b) BUT you also say that the dollar will strengthen for various probable sounding reasons, which it is presently doing. (whereas many think it will collapse). For the collapse theory: it appears […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have indeed sparked my curiosity. With both the velocity of money and the trading volume declining since 1998, this seems to be a very dangerous position and your work is really eye opening. I read your Transactional Banking and it seems that this has changed everything for the worse. Your Big […]

A morning where PMI’s (Purchasing Managers Index) continue to rule the markets. China’s reaction was somewhat muted after mainland index rallied to close with a strong 1.85% performance but that was countered by the Hang Seng dropping 1.8%. The RBA surprised the markets with a 25bp cut in rates to take key rates back to 1.75%. […]

It really felt like a day of two-halves today after a lack-lustre Asian session and a weak European morning. The Nikkei was again a talking point (or at least the JPY was) but Shanghai too saw a bit of volatility as we flirted toward the 3k level early afternoon only to recover by the close. […]

After an initial opening surge in the Nikkei, briefly topping 17k, sellers appeared and drove prices lower to close the day -0.7%. The JPY was weaker throughout the morning session but had also turned stronger to balance the Nikkei swing. With the 10yr JGB having turned negative recently, this will squeeze banks and foreigners in […]