The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been honing in on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory that marks a major shift in humanity. While this may be true as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the […]

COMMENT: Marty, I began following you in 1985. That is when everyone was using the Kondratieff Wave and admitted it averaged 45 to 60 years. They were all predicting another Great Depression. You were the only one right back then as well. I remember your advertisement in the Economist saying a new Private Wave was […]

Due to the high demand and interest surrounding the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) and its history, we are offering a new educational webinar on the Economics Confidence Model (ECM) and the global business cycle. This session is suited for all people interested in the cyclical nature of the global economy. While it is certainly beneficial […]

While we took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks during July 1985 to announce the beginning of the Private Wave stating that the dollar had peaked (followed by the Plaza Accord 6 weeks later), the ECM has been remarked on around the world for its turning points. Money Week even got the […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong Thank you for this education. I’ve had to unlearn almost everything from the MBA I got. They’ll never teach this stuff in schools, it’s too dangerous. Question: If the Dow closes above the January high in Feb, would that be a cycle inversion, with the market going up when it should have […]

The economies of France and Italy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2019. There is stagnation in Europe. Negative signals are also coming from the Far East. The German auto manufacture, which is the backbone of the German export-economic model built upon the old mercantilist system (selling goods to other people), is also in a […]

COMMENT: Marty, I have to respectfully disagree with the comment made by CR in the last blog, “The Dow & the Economic Confidence Model”. In the email he said, “Marty, I have to laugh. Only those who have followed you more 20 years understand you have discovered the hidden order behind the facade.” Not all of us […]

COMMENT: Marty, I have to laugh. Only those who have followed you more 20 years understand you have discovered the hidden order behind the facade. Fantastic call on this turn in the ECM. Once again to the very day in the Dow. And people do not think your model is real? They must be idiots […]

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; Your ECM has been amazingly accurate. Not only did real estate peak, but it is now official, Germany is in a recession. Great job HW REPLY: There is an accurate business cycle that unfolds but you must step back and observe it from a global perspective. The Economic Confidence Model has a […]

QUESTION: Do you have any correlation illustrations between weather and your ECM? CG ANSWER: Yes. Here they are on a grand scale.