The Trading Money Center New York bankers did a brilliant sales job on policymakers, central bankers, and economists that the way to stabilize the world economy was to securitize everything. This combined with what they called the “Originate and Distribute Model” would lead to the promised-land in finance.  Indeed, financial intermediation has changed dramatically over […]

  Numerous emails have been coming in about what is “Big Bang” that we originally forecast at the 1985 Conference. To put this in plain cyclical terms, there has not been a trend that lasts for more than 26 years without serious change.   Originally, the depression that followed 1873 lasted for 26 years with […]

QUESTION: Many thanks again for the stream of clarifying observations posted daily — hugely appreciated. I was struck when reading that 2015.75 could be a low.Would this not permit a drop to cross 11,750? And would such a resulting chart pattern not be remarkably bullish? In effect might not the drop be an amplified echo of that […]

With each downturn in the Economic Confidence Model in this 51.6 year long-wave, the decline gets worse and the volatility rises. This is part of the process building until we reach the cataclysmic turned at the end 2032. The polls in Austria are very interesting for this has been a nation that historically represents the […]

Consumer debt rose the most in 6 years during the last quarter. Everything is pointing to a continued rally in the USA contrary to Europe and China no less Japan. Retails sales were outstanding for Christmas in the USA as they were in London. Everything still appears of track.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for all the information you provide on your blog. Looking at a chart you posted on the real estate cycle shows the peak in 2007 then a drop and a bit of a rebound into 2015, followed by a huge drop afterwards.  Am I correct in believing we will see real […]

Politicians are preparing for the worse everywhere you look. We forget so quickly that the American Revolution slogan was what – No Taxation Without Representation. Germany will not allow democratic referendums precisely the same move of King George III that set off the American Revolution, Homeland Security bought 2715 tanks for domestic use and enough […]

QUESTION: When the capital flows change direction after 2015.75, . . . .. If the inflows come to the USA after Japan & Europe implode, where does capital go after 2015.75?????? ANSWER: If we see the crisis unfold in Europe and Japan over the next 2 years, we will get the traditional Phase Transition here like Japan […]

Here is our 1996 forecast for long-term interest rates that we put out with the dollar low in 1995. We warned that interest rates would bottom on the Pi Cycle 31.4 Years from the 1981 high. That would be followed by a very sharp rally in rates into 2015.75. This was all part of the […]

QUESTION: If gold is a hedge against government, then that would explain why gold rose from 2007.15 to 2011.45, a period which your model shows lower confidence. If confidence in government is now rising, as predicted by your model, regardless of the inflation, people have confidence in QE, etc so will feel less need to […]