Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023
Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!
? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)
Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.
?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:
- Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
- Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
- Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
- WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
- Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
- Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
- Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
- Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
- Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
- Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!
Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually!
Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.
Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.
NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"
"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"
The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.
Book description:
“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.
So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.
On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.
The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.
PRIVATE BLOG – The Fed Paradox With Interest Rates
PRIVATE BLOG – The Fed Paradox With Interest Rates
Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.
France & the Prospects for Revolution
Videos circulating on social media that purportedly show French police resigning or joining protests actually date from March 2023, during demonstrations against pension reform, and are not from the 2026 student protests. Throughout the 2026 protests, French police have generally continued to carry out their crowd-control and public-order duties. Controversies have arisen—including allegations that police may have protected far-right groups during clashes in some cities—but these remain accusations that the Interior Minister has denied, not evidence that police have joined the protest movement.
What is key to a revolution is the fact that when the police/army turn against the government, then you get the revolution. That is what took place in Russia when Yeltsin stood on the tank and told the army not to fire on their fellow Russians and the stood-down causing the coup to collapse. the same took place in Ukraine and that is what brought down Yanakovich.
The risk of France seeing such a point will arrive in 2027. That is when the economic pressure will add to the mix and the opportunity for the police to switch sides will be present. It is possible this could materialize during the first quarter ’27 if energy rallies sharply into March. That could bring Le Pen to power in April 2027, this also could be the pressure that builds into a French vs Migrant conflict, but that may be waiting in the wings for 2028.
Qatar’s LNG Empire Is Being Strangled by the War with Iran

The wealth of the Gulf states depends upon their ability to export energy to the rest of the world. Qatar is a particularly dangerous case because its economy depends heavily upon liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nearly all of that export trade must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar’s LNG exports had collapsed by 96% by the end of August. The country lost an estimated $24 billion in gas sales during the first six months of the conflict, equivalent to approximately five months of its 2025 gas income. This is an extraordinary loss for a nation that has built its wealth upon supplying energy to the global economy.
The situation has become so desperate that QatarEnergy, once one of the world’s dominant LNG exporters, is now purchasing American natural gas to fulfill its international obligations. QatarEnergy has reportedly entered into a 30-year agreement with Cheniere Energy to purchase 4 million metric tons of LNG annually through 2054, with deliveries expected to begin in the 2030s. The company is also negotiating with Venture Global for another 3 million tons annually. Qatar possesses one of the largest natural gas reserves on the planet, yet it is arranging to buy LNG from its American competitors because it cannot reliably deliver its own product to customers. The country has not run out of gas. It has lost reliable access to the shipping routes necessary to sell it.
Iranian attacks have compounded the disaster. Two production trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex were damaged, removing approximately 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity. Repairs could take three years. The remaining production capacity is of limited economic value if the tankers cannot safely reach international markets. QatarEnergy has repeatedly declared force majeure on supply contracts, leaving customers in Asia and Europe scrambling for replacement shipments. Qatar had exported only 18 LNG cargoes through the end of August, compared with 509 during the same period in 2025. Those numbers demonstrate how thoroughly the conflict disrupted one of the world’s most important energy suppliers.
The geographical problem is especially severe. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess oil pipelines that can move some crude production toward ports outside the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar does not enjoy that flexibility. Natural gas cannot simply be loaded onto an ordinary tanker or pumped through an existing crude oil pipeline. LNG requires specialized liquefaction facilities, storage infrastructure, and vessels capable of maintaining extremely low temperatures. Constructing an alternative export system across Saudi Arabia or the UAE would require enormous investment, new infrastructure, and political agreements, none of which would provide immediate relief. Qatar is effectively trapped by its geography. Its principal source of national income depends upon a maritime passage that Iran can threaten at any moment.
This is precisely why I have emphasized the sovereign debt problems developing throughout the Middle East. Governments have built spending commitments around the assumption that energy revenues will continue flowing. Qatar has accumulated substantial financial reserves and overseas investments, which provide it with more protection than many other countries. Nevertheless, reserves are not an unlimited substitute for income. The government still has to finance public services, infrastructure, salaries, subsidies, and existing obligations while its principal export industry struggles to operate. The longer the disruption continues, the more pressure there will be to postpone spending, reconsider investment commitments, and conserve available liquidity.
Qatar recorded a budget deficit of approximately $5.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, its largest quarterly shortfall in nearly a decade. LNG exports fell from roughly 20 million tons per quarter before the war to less than 2 million tons between April and June. Government revenues dropped approximately 30%, while expenditures declined only 2.6%.
Nonessential construction, discretionary spending, and projects that don’t contribute directly to economic survival become harder to justify. Qatar has spent decades transforming its energy wealth into enormous infrastructure projects, international investments, and an expanding global presence. That model works exceptionally well when LNG revenues arrive without interruption. When the primary source of income is suddenly restricted, the government must reassess how long it can sustain its commitments. There is no indication that every nonessential project has been canceled, but the financial incentive to delay discretionary expenditures is unmistakable.
The consequences are also being felt throughout Asia and Europe. India, Bangladesh, and other major LNG importers have been forced to seek alternative supplies, while European gas storage remains vulnerable ahead of winter. Qatar previously supplied approximately one-fifth of global LNG trade. Removing that volume from international markets does not simply hurt Qatar. It creates competition for the remaining available gas, increases transportation and insurance costs, and places additional pressure on countries that depend upon imported energy. Europe has already undermined its industrial competitiveness through expensive energy policies and its confrontation with Russia. Another prolonged disruption to natural gas supplies will only make matters worse.
Qatar is far from bankrupt, and it possesses substantial financial assets that can help it endure this crisis. But there is a tremendous difference between possessing wealth and generating the income required to sustain an economy. A nation cannot indefinitely finance its obligations by drawing down reserves while its primary export industry remains constrained. Qatar has begun restoring some LNG shipments through Hormuz, but those voyages remain vulnerable to renewed attacks. Even a partial recovery does not eliminate the problem when the entire economic structure depends upon safe passage through one narrow waterway.
I have maintained that the Middle East War Cycle would have consequences far beyond the battlefield. Qatar demonstrates how a country can become an economic casualty of a war even when it is not the principal combatant. The government has little choice but to conserve its financial resources, protect its remaining energy infrastructure, and hope that shipping conditions improve before the damage becomes permanent. Its enormous gas reserves have not disappeared, but those reserves cannot pay the bills if they cannot reach the customer. The longer this conflict continues, the more governments throughout the region will discover that their financial security was built upon assumptions about peace and uninterrupted trade that no longer hold.
European Leaders Pick Up the Phone and Call Putin
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre have finally done something that should have been happening throughout this entire war. They picked up the telephone and spoke directly with Vladimir Putin. On October 27, the two leaders initiated a conversation with the Russian president to discuss ending the war in Ukraine and restoring some degree of stability to Europe. What makes this development particularly significant is that Finland and Norway stated explicitly that they were acting as leaders of their own nations, rather than claiming to represent Europe as a whole. Imagine that. Two national leaders recognizing that they have a responsibility to protect their own people rather than waiting for Brussels to tell them whether they are permitted to speak to Moscow.
Stubb described the conversation as “frank and substantive” and acknowledged that Finland and Norway share borders with Russia and will be directly affected by the outcome of this war. He stated that ending the conflict requires direct discussions. That should be obvious to anyone who understands diplomacy. How can Europe possibly negotiate an end to a war when so many of its leaders have refused to speak with one of the principal parties? The European political establishment has spent years announcing sanctions, military aid packages, and increasingly ambitious security commitments. Yet the basic act of maintaining communication with Moscow has become so controversial that a telephone call between heads of state is now treated as a remarkable diplomatic breakthrough.
What makes Stubb’s decision especially interesting is his own record. When he was elected president in February 2024, he declared that Finland would not restore high-level political relations with Russia until the war ended. In February 2025, he delivered a speech in Kyiv in which he argued that Putin could not be trusted and called for continued sanctions, military assistance, and pressure upon Moscow. He has been an outspoken supporter of Ukraine, Finland’s NATO membership, and stronger European security arrangements. This is hardly a politician who has spent the past several years defending the Kremlin. Yet he now recognizes that direct communication is necessary if the war is ever going to end. That change in diplomatic approach deserves attention because it acknowledges the practical limits of trying to isolate a major military power indefinitely.
Norwegian Prime Minister Støre has been more consistent on this particular issue. As far back as October 2022, he warned the Norwegian parliament that the lack of direct communication with Russia was dangerous because it reduced the prospects of a negotiated settlement and increased the risk of further escalation. Norway shares a 198 km land border with Russia, along with a much longer maritime boundary in the Arctic. These countries cannot simply relocate themselves because politicians in Brussels dislike their neighbor. In May 2026, Støre again emphasized that Norway’s relationship with Russia must balance national security with the geographical reality that the two countries will remain neighbors. His government has supported Ukraine and maintained sanctions, but it has also recognized that certain practical contacts with Moscow remain necessary.
This is the fundamental problem with the European Union’s approach to foreign policy. The European Commission is not a sovereign nation. Its president is selected through the EU’s institutional process rather than directly elected by the population of Europe. The Commission nevertheless exercises considerable influence over sanctions, economic policy, and the political positions advanced in Brussels. National governments retain important foreign-policy powers, particularly in security matters, but European leaders have increasingly attempted to present a unified position on Russia. Unity can be useful when countries genuinely share the same interests. It becomes far more complicated when governments are discouraged from pursuing diplomatic contacts necessary to protect their own populations.
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen immediately criticized the Finnish and Norwegian initiative, complaining that the two countries had acted independently rather than coordinating with the rest of Europe. She questioned what they expected to accomplish and argued that Europe should speak with one voice. Yet Stubb and Støre had consulted Ukraine before making the call and subsequently briefed Zelensky about their conversation. They were not secretly negotiating away Ukrainian territory or abandoning their commitments to Kyiv. They were attempting to communicate directly with Moscow before another round of negotiations. The objection appears to concern the lack of broader European coordination, but surely national leaders should retain the ability to speak with a neighboring government when their own security is at stake.
Finland has a particularly painful history with Russia. The Soviet Union invaded Finland in November 1939, beginning the Winter War, and Finland ultimately surrendered territory while preserving its independence. Stubb himself has discussed how his family lost its ancestral homeland as a consequence of that conflict. Finland subsequently maintained a delicate relationship with Moscow throughout the Cold War, balancing its independence against the realities of Soviet military power. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland abandoned its longstanding military nonalignment and joined NATO in 2023. Its border with Russia stretches approximately 1,340 kilometers.
The October 27 conversation followed a meeting in Oslo on October 20 involving Stubb, Støre, Zelenskyy, and American representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Witkoff subsequently met Putin in St. Petersburg. The diplomatic discussions are now directed toward another round of negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi during the first half of November.
Europe’s political leadership should recognize that diplomacy is not an endorsement of another government’s actions. Speaking with an adversary does not require accepting its demands. It is how governments determine whether compromise is possible, communicate warnings, and reduce the risk of catastrophic misunderstandings. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union maintained diplomatic channels despite possessing the ability to destroy one another. Today, European leaders have sometimes treated the simple act of talking to Putin as though it were a political betrayal.
Elections Worldwide are at Their Most Divisive in Centuries

While most of the world looks to the upcoming US Midterm elections, the polarization is worldwide. In France the stark difference between Macron and Le Pen is just one example. We have the same in Germany between Merz and the AfD. Today the election in Israel is mo different. It is so polarized that it may take even months to form a new government. Opinion polls suggest that Mr. Netanyahu’s allies and rivals are roughly tied. This is the polarization we are seeing everywhere.
In Israel, opposition leaders led by Mr. Eisenkot have called for a day of reckoning over the leadership of Netanyahu’s failure to prevent the catastrophic Oct. 7 attacks. With Egypt stating they told Netanyahu in advance and he did nothing as our computer saw the defense stocks moving in advance, has long suggested that he allowed it to happen to justify his assault on Gaza et el. Netanyahu has resisted the establishment of an independent commission to investigate the Oct. 7 attacks. Based on our computer, I can understand why.
Eisenkot has also have pledged to repair Israel’s shattered image abroad, including by cracking down on Israeli extremist violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.
Netanyahu has vowed to move ahead with overhauling Israel’s judicial system. The opposition warns this is Netanyahu’s scheme to undermine the country’s liberal democracy. Netanyahu and his allies say they will keep tightening Israel’s grip on the West Bank and Gaza despite international condemnation.
Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for decades. Recently, he repeatedly suggested that the country could face annihilation without him in charge. Israeli real estate in “real terms” is still poised for a decline into 20230.
I have warned that the 2025 US-Israeli attack on Iran was the worst possible decision. That came with the bottom of the Iranian Cycle, which means a new cycle of hostility would begin. This immediate cycle will escalate into 2032. Netanyahu will never accept peace with Iran. Wil the Democrats taking the House, they are against the Iran-Israeli War because Trump joined. So Israel will find itself more isolated and the Democrats turn to support Zelensky against Russia, which they still blame Putin for Hillary’s loss. This means or war cycle is still on track.
Israeli Elections
As I warned, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would try to start some new conflict with Iran in advance of the election. There were serious concerns he might even try to nuke the Iran nuclear facility ahead of the election if he thought he woud lose. What did happen was an unprecedented dispute erupted between Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir over a proposed military operation against Iran that could trigger an immediate confrontation, according to Israeli Channel 12.
Zamir refused to proceed without a comprehensive security assessment, legal clarification and signed authorization from Israel’s political leadership. Military officials fear Netanyahu could exploit tensions with Iran for political advantage ahead of Israel’s elections, potentially triggering a dangerous escalation all for personal gain. A senior Israeli defense official said, “History will not forget the role Zamir played in recent days.”
Exit polls by Israeli broadcasters show no clear winner in today’s elections, with one by Channel 12 indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is on track to have 50 seats, while rival Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc is on track to have 52. The Knesset has 120 seats, so a coalition needs a minimum of 61 before being approved by the president.
The vote was the first nationwide election since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, which Netanyahu has said was the deadliest day in the country’s history. But Egypt has insisted that they warned Netanyahu and hr took no action, which many have viewed was a way for him to launch his attack on Gaza.
Netanyahu is facing one of the most significant electoral tests of his decades-long political career after three years of war, crisis and global outcry over the country’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip.
Turnout was the highest in more than two decades at 77.7%, Israel’s Central Elections Committee said. Polls closed at 10 p.m. (4 p.m. ET). Netanyahu’s opposition wants peace and to end this constant warfare. Like Brazil, Europe, USA, and Canada, everywhere you look the political divisions are becoming very stark. This is all part of the path to political change coming by 2032.
There is a serious risk that a Democratic victory in November will change the relationship between the US and Israel. The computer shows that it appears to be continued war into 2028. We have a Panic Cycle in 2028 in Crude Oil so this election does not appear to signal peace ahead. I warned that the Iranian Revolution Cycle turned in 2025 with the start of this war. The United States attacked Iran on June 21, 2025 (Washington time), targeting three nuclear facilities. The strikes hit the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This became known a “Midnight Hammer.” That attack aligned with the bottom of this cycle was the WORST POSSIBLE DECISISON for this did not topple the government, but invigorated it and has been leading to unity. Our computer picked it up a week in advance also showing the rise in volatility that extended into the following week.
Here are the Arrays from July and the current from October. Both were showing a rise in volatility would come in December. However, the July array showed a Directional Change in August. The shift in Trump’s stance toward Netanyahu appears to have begun around August 2026, with the distancing becoming more pronounced by September 2026. Reports from mid-August indicate that Trump was already withholding a political endorsement and that the relationship had cooled. Axios reported that the rift had been widening over the “past three months” (pointing back to around May), but the public withholding of support became a clear signal in August. A Newsmax report from August 14 noted Trump’s reluctance marked a shift from the spring when he was expected to back Netanyahu without hesitation. The computer picked that up with the Directional Change in August.
Now turning to the current Array, here we have back-to-back Directional Changes in October and November. This most likely indicating a US Democratic victory taking the House in November, which may lead to Netanyahu fulfilling his dream trying to topple Iran. The volatility will rise significantly from December going into March, when we also see a sharp rise in diesel fuel costs as well.
So buckle up. Between Netanyahu and Zelensky, the first quarter of 2027 should bring some interesting market trades.
The Serbian Elections
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You are the only advisory firm that covers Serbia. I know you are familiar with Serbia, and you even appear on video here. Have you been advising the student rebellion? We could use your help.
DV
ANSWER: I am not at liberty to discuss such private consultations. There is no unified leadership. I have no problem advising any country if it genuinely seeks improvement. In some cases, there is genuine interest, like in Alberta, but the timing is not quite right. In the case of Serbia, this is akin to the 1848 European Revolution which began in Sicily and swept Europe and even toppled the French government. Most the flad, including that of Germany, are the flags used by the rebellions.
Serbia’s student-led movement has dealt a historic blow to long-time leader Aleksandar Vučić, turning protests over a deadly railway station accident into an electoral challenge that has shaken the country’s political establishment. Vučić conceded defeat on Sunday, October 25, after a parliamentary election that pitted his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) against the student-backed Student List. Although final official results were still awaited, Vučić acknowledged that his political camp had lost, estimating that the student-backed candidates would win between 135 and 140 seats in the 250-member parliament, while his side would secure 105.
The core complaints against Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia center on systemic corruption, democratic backsliding, and repression of dissent, which coalesced into a mass student-led movement following a deadly infrastructure collapse in 2024.
The primary catalyst for widespread outrage was the November 2024 collapse of a canopy at the newly renovated Novi Sad railway station, which killed 16 people. Critics widely attributed the tragedy to government corruption, negligence, and lack of transparency in public procurement. The students demanded accountability, but the lack of completed court proceedings and perceived impunity for officials fueled sustained protests .
Core Allegations Against Vucic
The protest movement and civil society groups have leveled several specific accusations against Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) mainly Corruption and Cronyism. The opposition and watchdogs accuse the government of ruling for private interests rather than the public, citing a clientelist model where goods and services are exchanged for political support. Transparency International recorded Serbia’s lowest score in two decades on its Corruption Perceptions Index in 2025.
Activists, students, and opposition politicians report an increasingly authoritarian environment. Allegations include police brutality against peaceful protesters, arbitrary arrests, and a campaign to silence critics. The Council of Europe’s Human Rights Commissioner noted reports of excessive force and humiliating treatment of detainees.
Serbia ranked 104th out of 180 countries in the 2026 World Press Freedom Index, its worst ranking ever. Critics accuse Vučić of verbally attacking journalists (at least 182 times in the first nine months of 2026 alone) and allowing pro-government media to operate with impunity while independent outlets face pressure.
Digital rights groups have documented the use of advanced spyware (such as Pegasus) against student movement members and high-profile opponents, with at least 14 people targeted as of September 2026.
Civil society groups warned that the October 2026 elections were held under conditions lacking “free and fair” standards, citing the misuse of public resources, intimidation, and a distorted media environment favoring the ruling party.
Vučić and the SNS have repeatedly denied all accusations of corruption, repression, and spying. He has dismissed the protests as a foreign-funded coup attempt, claiming the students are backed by foreign agents, a charge the movement denies. This is always popular Hillary blamed Putin, Romania cancelled election claiming Russian interference, and we hear the same claims from Germany and the UK. The PM of Britain has even now blamed BREXIT on Putin.
The political dynamic shifted significantly in the October 2026 elections, where the student-backed “Student List” movement mounted a historic challenge to Vučić’s 14-year rule, ultimately leading to his party’s defeat according to media reports.
Look, its going to be a difficult period going into January. As I have warned, even the EU itself is under attack and need an external enemy or the rising civil unrest in Europe will topple the EU itself.
PRIVATE BLOG – Brazil – The Coming Revolution?
PRIVATE BLOG – Brazil – The Coming Revolution?
Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.
Market Talk – October 27, 2026
AMERICAS:
US Markets:
- DJIA advanced by 15.99 points (0.03%) to 52,377.57
- S&P 500 advanced by 45.83 points (0.6%) to 7,722.6
- NASDAQ advanced by 308.43 points (1.18%) to 26,477.811
- Russell 2000 advanced by 32.45 points (1.16%) to 2,818.87
Canada:
- TSX Composite advanced by 227.33 points (0.63%) to 36,171.49
- TSX 60 advanced by 7.87 points (0.37%) to 2,147.35
Brazil:
- Bovespa declined by 898.18 points (0.51%) to 175,710.05
Japan Rates Rise to 31-Year High
Japan’s central bank has raised its main interest rate to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years, in response to rising inflation and economic pressures. This marks the sixth increase since 2024 as the Bank of Japan moves away from ultra-low borrowing costs. What is confusing to many is they are trapped in the Keynesian Economics World that even former Chairman Paul Volcker declared in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle failed in ’70s.
Japanese real estate prices have continued to rise even as interest rates climb, but the long-term idea that if rates rise, demand falls, have never quite worked as advertised. Rising rates when you are coming off a low do not have a negative impact. When the US real estate was down, I warned that it would start to rise with the first uptick. Some commented I lost my mind. They have about ZERO understanding of human nature. People are not as stupid as some pundits. When mortgage rates kept declining, there was no rush to go buy because it will be cheaper tomorrow. With the first uptick, there was a surge in mortages because they saw the trend change.
We are looking at real estate markets generally with a strong demand and supply constraints. This is unfolding in several countries including Japan. Higher borrowing costs are not simultaneously creating signs of strain, particularly in transaction volumes and buyer affordability.
Prices Are Still Rising
Official data confirms broad price growth across 2026. We will see a significant change next year in 2027.
Official Land Prices
The national average for all land-use types rose 1.5% in the 2026 benchmark land price survey, marking the fifth consecutive year of increase. The three major metropolitan areas saw a 4.4% rise, driven by a 5.4% increase in the Tokyo area.
Condominium Prices
In the Tokyo metropolitan area, the asking price for existing condominiums rose 25.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the 26th consecutive month of increase.
We have a Directional Change next year and high volatility. This could be the peak in real terms for 2026.


















