Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, marking the sharpest rise since the late 1990s.

Tariffs are certainly part of the problem. Brazil produces around 37% of the world’s coffee, but now faces a 50% tariff on coffee beans. The average price of Brazilian coffee now sits around $6 per pound. Brazil also experienced a depleted harvest in 2024-25 due to drought and unfavorable weather conditions. The harvest was 9% beneath traditional levels. Global production rose by 4.3 million bags, but was offset by lower stocks, and prices remained high. The US spent $1.41 billion last year on Brazilian coffee alone, and a 50% tariff in addition to increased prices is causing grocers and retailers to raise prices.

Brazil and Colombia primarily focus on Arabica beans, with Colombia being America’s second-highest importer. In far contrast to Brazil, Colombia’s tariff sits at 10%. Still, the US purchased $1.4 billion in coffee beans from Colombia last year and any levy will be felt by consumers. Colombia’s 2024-25 coffee harvest was extremely robust at 13.2 million bags, a 23% increase from the previous year. Farmers believe production will fall by 5.3% in the coming harvest due to weakening La Nina conditions and heavy rain.

Vietnam supplies 17% of the world’s coffee, but the US mainly relies on South America for imports. Vietnam’s tariff sits at 20% and many roasters have complained that this is affecting their bottom line. Same with Indonesia, which has a 19-32% levy.

Brazilian coffee exports to the US have fallen by nearly 46% since tariffs were imposed. While the US consumed 15% of Brazilian coffee exports, Germany was close behind at 14% and has surpassed the US to become the top buyer. It is undeniable that tariffs on Brazil have caused a spike in US coffee prices, which has been exacerbated by a weak harvest.

Albania’s new AI minister, Diella, delivered her first speech to Parliament on Thursday. “I’m not here to replace people, but to help them,” the AI entity created by Microsoft stated in a video displayed before elected human officials.

Prime Minister Edi Rama has even opened a social media platform for Diella where the public can allegedly engage with the AI Minister directly. “Hello, I am Diella, Thanks to my hard work as your assistant, I was elected Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence in the new government. My mission now is to make the government’s work easier every day,” a Facebook video-presentation on the Diella account said.

The Facebook comments show the people’s disgust. “Ahahahaha even a donkey understands what you have in mind… meanwhile the people have no work, no food, no home, no medicine, health care is for money or you die and you make fun of the people, come on state, come on live communism and dictatorship,” one user wrote. “You have found a sheep people who do not oppose you with your crazy experiments. But not anymore. Our children have the right to be elected and to choose who they know will represent them. And who will answer to the law. This step is madness,” another commented.

Parliament was in an upheaval after Diella’s speech. Opposition MPs refused to participate in Thursday’s ballot as they cannot take the words of a programmed AI entity seriously or see its presence as anything other than an utter embarrassment. “Diella is not a vision, but a virtual facade to hide this government’s gigantic daily thefts,” Opposition Democratic Party MP Gazment Bardhi rebuked. “Socialist MPs did not listen to the prime minister, nor to the ministers about their concrete objectives, nor to the opposition that might be made to them, but voted like sheep, creating an unprecedented situation in these three decades of post-communism,” Bushati said.

Traditionally, new cabinet presentations often last for hours. Lawmakers left the building after 25 minutes and nothing was accomplished. The people are furious. Diella is not viewed as a step toward ending corruption but as a mockery of the constitutional republic.

Chicago is stepping in to lend cash to its underfunded pensions so they have enough money to avoid asset sales to cover retirement checks as they wait for property taxes to come in after a computer issue delayed collections https://t.co/NjYZMGlDs7

— Bloomberg (@business) September 16, 2025

Chicago’s money trees are shedding their autumn layers with a new multi-million dollar government payout package for underfunded public pensions. City officials approved a short-term bailout of the Firemen’s Annuity & Benefit Fund to the tune of $28 million to avoid forced asset sales. That is merely the tip of the iceberg, as Chicago’s pension debt has risen 15% over the past five years to an utterly unsustainable $36 billion.

Property taxes currently fund 80% of the city’s pension fund, but are not enough to sufficiently meet payouts. The average pension fund ideally has a funding level of around 70%, and funding beneath 40% is considered nearly insolvent. In Chicago, the top four public pension funds (fire, police, municipal, and laborers), along with the teachers’ pension fund, have a backing ratio between 24% to 43%, with the combined debt now exceeding $53 billion—all of Chicago’s public pension funds have gone bust. Reform measures have been bypassed for years to the point of no return.

Chicago’s pension system carries a debt larger than that of 44 states. Seven Chicago-area pension funds are among the top 10 worst-funded plans in the country. The city already allocates up to 20% of its annual budget toward pensions. Taxpayers are expected to meet all shortfalls, but again, the current level of taxation is not enough to cover the gap.

Lawmakers claim there was a mere system error. Property tax bills were expected to be sent out in June, but will not reach taxpayers until October. The $28 million is intended to act as a temporary band-aid, but the city is almost guaranteed to ask for additional loans and bailouts because the frozen funds are NOT the problem. These funds are a Ponzi scheme, robbing Peter to pay Paul, but the jig is up.

Lawmakers recently passed a bill to provide additional pay to Chicago’s retired firefighters and police officers. Politicians are permitted to pass bills to secure votes without actually having a plan in place. The city’s pension bill will rise to $2.76 billion by 2026. There is no money for other public services. Chicago has lost its ability to remain competitive as capital is fleeing increased levies.

Chicago’s overall property tax levy more than doubled in a decade, expanding from $860 million in 2014 to $1.77 billion in 2024. Pension costs directly have risen sixfold over that ten-year span from $478 million in 2014 to $2.75 billion in 2024. The city has redirected every penny collected from property taxes since 2014 into these failing funds, but the pension obligation has surpassed 160% of the annual property tax revenue.

The blame falls on the people rather than the failed politicians. Mayor Brandon Johnson proposed increasing property taxes by $300 million for the current fiscal year, which would mark the largest spike in property taxes in the city’s history. The measure was shot down by the City Council who instead plans to generate $165.5 million with additional taxes and fees in other domains.

In 2021, Mayor Lori Lightfoot demanded a $93.9 million increase in property taxes. Johnson actually campaigned against that measure, and Lightfoot was pressured to drop the tax hike to $42.7 million in 2023. Johnson was elected over Lightfoot for pretending to care about constituents and promising to lower tax burdens.

Their approach has failed. 41% of property taxes were injected into these broken pension funds in 2014 and increased to 80% in 2024. Property taxes more than doubled in that timeframe, but it is nowhere near enough to solve this crisis. Politicians will continue to rob the people with excessive levies to maintain the Ponzi scheme for as long as possible. It is only a matter of time before the city is unable to pay retirees.

The Illinois Constitution does not permit cities to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. The state has historically blocked any cuts to payouts regardless of liquidity. The city may one day be forced to beg for a federal bailout, which would force all Americans to pay for decades of reckless mismanagement by financially illiterate politicians.

PRIVATE BLOG – The Coming Middle East War

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you had forecast that Brazil would go into another revolutionary phase in 2026. Given the recent events here in Brazil, I think that forecast you made three years ago is suddenly looking more plausible. Would you provide an update on Brazil?

Thank you

Miguel

ANSWER: Brazil’s history is notably different from many Latin American neighbors; it did not have a bloody, continent-wide war for independence from Portugal (1822), and it has not had a classic, successful popular revolution that completely overthrew the state in a single event (like the French or Russian Revolutions).

However, Brazil has experienced several major events that are officially called “revolutions” and other profound transformations that could be considered revolutionary in impact. The last was a military coup that overthrew President João Goulart in 1964, which was officially called the “Redemptive Revolution” by the generals who led it. They framed it as a necessary action to save the country from communism and chaos. However, historians today universally classify it as a coup d’état that initiated a 21-year-long military dictatorship, not a revolution in the classic sense.

The election of Lula da Silva was an act of economic suicide for Brazil. Silva was elected in 2022 to be the president of Brazil. That was a stunning comeback following a very tight run-off race that was not without controversy. His victory heralded a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country. You can see the economic consequences since the US dollar reversed direction and was projected to reach a major high in 2024. Bolsonaro was ahead of da Silva in the polls for the 2026 election, which is why Lula had him criminally charged, and the courts are too corrupt in Brazil to realize this was not a solution.

The years 2025 and 2026 are Directional Changes. So far, the dollar is an inside trading year. It appears the political uncertainty will rise in 2026, and this should carry Brazil into 2028. The risk of rising volatility will appear in March-April in 2026. The computer projections for Brazil indicate that this will NOT end nicely. Brazil has still been able to sell bonds abroad. For example, it sold $2.75 billion in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds in June 2025. This should start to change in 2026. Interest payments as a share of government revenue in Brazil are running over 30.84%. Interest payments correspond to roughly 7-8% of Brazil’s GDP in recent months.

The current president of Brazil is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is following the LEFTIST world agenda to further this idea of a LEFTIST WORLD GOVERNMENT. This is a deliberate campaign on a global scale that wages political war to inspire hatred. His prosecution of Bolsonaro is a classic example of the leftist tactic to imprison opponents. We saw that attempt with Trump, but Macron used it against Marine Le Pen, and Germany tried to outlaw the AfD.

Other countries that are prosecuting former heads of state include Argentina, Peru, South Korea, France, Israel, Chad, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Guinea. Then there is the International Criminal Court, which has also become political, charging crimes against humanity, regarding Vladimir Putin, Rodrigo Duterte, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Min Aung Hlaing.

Now, even Romania is pulling the same LEFTIST tactic at the direction of the EU because NATO is building the largest base in Romania to launch attacks on Russia. Calin Georgescu was against the war that the EU and NATO are directing, so the answer is to criminally abuse the law to again imprison your opponent. This is becoming a WIDESPREAD tactic of the LEFT, and this is all part of the computer’s forecast for 2032. They believe that after World War III, they will get to this time, institutionalize Marxism, and kill any Capitalistic and freedom once and for all.

There is concern within parts of Brazil’s military (and among political observers) about aspects of Lula’s government, but it’s a complex situation. After Lula took office, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed several government buildings in Brasília. There has been substantial evidence that some security forces, including military police and possibly elements in the armed forces, either failed to act or had persons sympathetic to Bolsonaro among them.

Lula turned to consolidate loyalty and trust (and to reduce risks of elements sympathetic to a coup or insurrection), Lula’s government has made several changes:

• • The Army’s top commander, Gen. Júlio Cesar de Arruda, was replaced by Gen. Tomás Miguel Ribeiro Paiva.

  • Some military appointments and posts have been blocked or changed, especially where there was concern over loyalty.

  • The intelligence agency, previously under military or security oversight, has come under more civilian control.

Our sources there confirm that there are many in the military who are very uneasy about being drawn into politics, about their institutional reputation, and about purges or dismissals (even if legally justified) that they see as politicized. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they uniformly oppose Lula or his policies.

Lula’s attempt to use the legal system to shut down all opposition is highly dangerous, and this will become the source of the next revolution. Brazil is DOOMED!!!! Legally, Bolsonaro’s conviction over the coup plot is NOT universally accepted—there are appeals, dissenting opinions, and charges of political motivation, especially from Bolsonaro’s supporters. Some in the military (especially those who supported him) likely see the convictions as politically motivated or unfair; others see them as a necessary response to threats against democracy. But Lula is the real threat to democracy, but the LEFT is always the most violent, for they tell their followers that they are the victims of the RIGHT, who are evil and must be destroyed.

The convictions themselves are decisions of the corrupt courts in Brazil, not the military. The military’s concern tends to be more about the implications that the corrupt legal system, like we have seen in the US with compromised judges, that manipulating the law for political uses by the judiciary has set a precedent that many are beginning to see that the only solution to save Brazil again will be a revolution.

A significant tension is the degree of civilian control over the military, and ensuring the military (and police) are neutral and professional rather than being political actors. Lula has tried to assert that, but there are risks of backlash. Then throw in the corrupt legal system of Brazil. The courts are prosecuting individuals, including military personnel. How the military handles those investigations (disciplinary, legal) matters determines whether the institution as a whole accepts the rule of law when the courts are acting as a purge for Lula. The one way to ensure a future revolution was to imprison Bolsonaro.

A significant portion of Brazil’s military is deeply concerned about political instability, the risk of being caught in political fights, and the implications of removing or disciplining personnel. But whether that counts as being “concerned about the left agenda” or “afraid of Lula imprisoning Bolsonaro” depends a lot on which part of the military, how high up, and how closely connected to Bolsonaro or his supporters they are.

Even the Telegraph has noticed that Obama is fanning the political divide in the United States, as part of an agenda to use WWIII to redesign the United States in the aftermath, similar to how Bretton Woods, the creation of the UN, and the IMF all came after WWII. Obama is blaming Trump for dividing the country as if the LEFT has nothing to do with it.

Obama is an extreme leftist player in this game. After leaving office, Barack Obama chose to remain in Washington, D.C., which some interpret as a way to maintain influence in politics. His continued presence has led to speculation about his involvement in political matters and support for Democratic candidates. Sources have long said that Obama is really a closet racist, and that has colored his leftist agenda, which he has sold quietly behind the scenes. He is the ONLY former President who has refused to leave politics in Washington. While the press loves him, he is much more of a dedicated zealot to his political philosophy than most are ever willing to put in print.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower rates by 25 bps at the September meeting, citing “that downside risks to employment have risen.” I reported in December 2024 that the computer had forecast a decline in employment during the incoming Trump Administration.

Based on the most recent data, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers remains steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000, and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in those two months.

Unemployment began to rise during the Biden Administration. In fact, not a single job in the private sector was created during the Biden Administration. People blame Trump’s deportation and DOGE efforts for a declining workforce, but that is certainly not the problem. Data indicates that citizens are beginning to rapidly fill roles once taken by migrants. Tariffs are not the problem either, as companies are not hiring for the short term.

Workforce softness often leads to lower rates as the Fed mistakenly believes that cheaper borrowing costs will ignite business investment, consumer spending, and strengthen businesses to the point that they need additional employees. Borrowing costs are not the reason why companies are not hiring. CONFIDENCE is the problem, as businesses do not foresee expansion in the near-term, as consumers are grappling with massive debt and an increased cost of living.

The number of unemployed Americans now outnumbers available job openings. Data from July show 7.24 million unemployed Americans compared to 7.18 million job openings, marking the first time that the unemployed have outnumbered the number of available jobs since April 2021. Companies are outsourcing work to places like India or places where humans work with automated AI. Rising wages and regulations, topped with inflation and ever-rising taxes, have created an unfavorable business environment.

Companies are not looking to expand when they are working to stay afloat. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future.

We have a Directional Change in 2026, which is an important near-term turning point. Look forward, and we see 2032 as a Panic Cycle with Directional Changes. The 2029/2030 period looks to be dominated by turmoil. Based on the model, unemployment will spike in the next year to nearly 7%. We are nowhere near Great Depression levels, but there will be a notable uptick in unemployment, coinciding with Panic Cycles globally in nearly every market.

The average French pensioner receives a larger payout than working-aged adults. France has one of the highest replacement rate packages of any OECD nation at around 74% of average earnings. The French government spends an astounding 14% of GDP on the unsustainable pension system.

The average pension in France is around €1,626 gross per month, and pensioners earn around 2% more than the working adults propping up those pensions. The average American pensioner earns about a sixth less than working adults, UK retirees earn about a fifth less, while Australians earn around a third less than their working counterparts, according to Fortune. The amount demanded by retirees has increased proportionally over recent years, as have taxes on the working public, who now pay 8.55% of their income into the pension system.

Widespread pension reform protests took place in 2023 when we saw protesters attempt to burn down the BlackRock office in Paris after the retirement age was raised from 62 to 64. “The meaning of this action is quite simple. We went to the headquarters of BlackRock to tell them: the money of workers, for our pensions, they are taking it,” a protestor told a CNN affiliate. The protest was organized and the message was clear. The Parisians are not allowing government mismanagement to change their retirement plans. They have been promised an easy retirement and paid into the system. The government has been unable to fulfill its promises and the people perceive any reforms as an unfair betrayal.

The deficit for pensions is estimated to grow to €15 billion by 2035 and then to around €30 billion a couple of years later. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit, aiming for 5.4% of GDP in 2025, followed by 3% in 2029.

France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.

This is why politicians want war with Russia as a diversion. They desperately need an excuse in the face of a crumbling monetary system. No one is buying government debt. The solution is to rob the pension funds to eliminate the need to issue bonds to cover expenses. That move will only undermine confidence in the EU and result in further civil unrest. Negative interest rates have robbed savers of income since 2014, but the world refuses to move away from Keynesian economics.

France and the rest of the Western world have a growing aging population paired with a massive decline in birth rates. These nations attempted to open borders to compensate for the lack of workers, but instead, the public became saddled with more debt as they were forced to pay for the newcomers.

Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.

Jair Bolsonaro will spend the rest of his life in a Brazilian prison for inciting a coup that never happened. Bolsonaro’s public humiliation ritual is far from over as the establishment is using him as an example for anyone who dares to voice a dissenting opinion. The latest ruling determined that the former president must pay R$1m ($188,435.55 USD) for insulting a hairstyle, which the courts deemed racist.

The federal court of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul examined a statement Bolsonaro made in 2021 when he insulted a black man by calling his afro a “breeding ground for cockroaches.” Insulting? Certainly. Racist? It seems to be a far stretch. The man with the afro told the courts that he did not believe it was a racist remark, and in fact, he had voted for Bolsonaro. He believed that it was a joke. I recall hearing similar sentiments about white men with long hair back in the day. People have been insulting long, “dirty” hairstyles on men for ages.

“Racial offence disguised as jocular remarks or mere jokes, linking Black power hair to insects associated with disgust and dirt, harms the honour and dignity of Black people and reinforces the stigma of inferiority of this population,” said Judge Roger Raupp Rios. The man he allegedly insulted did not feel offended. The establishment wants the people to view the remark as an insult to an entire race of people to further political division and to stifle free speech.

Again, the man did not file charges against Bolsonaro for the poorly worded joke. Public prosecutors and the public defender’s office took it upon themselves to persecute Bolsonaro for that statement and two separate remarks made during a 2021 live stream with supporters in front of the presidential palace. Prosecutors were initially seeking a R$10m fine for perceived “recreational racism.”

The Brazilian government was also ordered by the court to pay R$1m since Bolsonaro was in office at the time. The attack on free speech is global. The establishment is warning the public that they may not speak freely without severe punishment. Something said years ago could be used against you in courts today. Bolsonaro is a 70-year-old man and will likely die in prison for a crime he did not commit. The establishment behind big government is stronger than most could imagine.