Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

QUESTION: What do you think of Trump threatening to cut rates or cut off trade with everyone if the US has a trade deficit? And while you are at it, what about this deal with Putin?

BR

ANSWER: Trump is a borrower, not a lender. There are two sides to every coin and then there is the edge.  Trumps want cheap rates to borrow, but that reduces the income for the retired people and cash rich companies. If rates are so low then capital will NOT lend and you invest instead. The trailing dividend yield on the Dow Jones Industrials is about 1.83%.

AAA US Corporate Index Effective Yield: This broad index yield was 5.81% as of October 1, 2026 compared to the US Treasury rate of 5.667%. The AAA Spread (Late 2025)  spread narrowed to just 30 basis points in October 2025, compared to an average of 67 basis points from 2012 to 2019. The shift from public to private is underway thanks to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Here is a chart from the Great Depression. The spread peaked a 1.3% in 1932 at the bottom of the stock market and the Great Depression in real terms. That spread fell to .47 by 1937 thanks to FDR and the appearance of socialism.

Look, I do not blame Trump, he is operating on what we were all taught in school back then that under Keynesian Economics, the government could manipulate society by simply raising or lowering interest rates. Sorry, what they taught us in school was all propaganda. Interest rates rise in bull markets and decline in recessions. Someone needs to have a talk with Trump because this latest threat will in fact cause a serious economic catastrophe into 2028. Someone need to show him these charts. Rates rose throughout his first terms and they called it the Trump Rally. Nobody paid attention to the interest rates.

Look, it is the biggest lie that is propelled by the media who constant harp on what the Fed will do next. It is always from the borrow side, never the investor side. Rate simply rise in EVERY bull market because there is a demand for money. They DECLINE in depressions and recessions BECAUSE the demand collapses.

Lower rates are indicative of a recession and bear markets – not booming economies. It does not matter what I say or what proof I present, the press will always keep up the fakes news and never even once will they every actually investigate what they say is true or false.

CNBC and every other LEFT-SOCIALIST-MEDIA organization is bashing Trump because they can never bring them to ever write a single neutral word. CMBC wrote:

“But commentators and critics were quick to highlight contradictions between the new policy and prior efforts by the U.S. to clamp down on Russian oil sales.”

They never want to tell the truth about anything. Trump asked Zelensky not to attack refineries in Russia. He did the next day. He has said his country comes first. So while they print nothing but Neocon propaganda how they are fighting for Democracy in Ukraine when Zelensky refuses to hold elections and he refused to honor the peace agreement, Minsk Agreement, which to allow the Donbas to have a vote on Separation, while any election Russia has he claims is fake and rigged, I hope Trump passes an Executive Order that every journalist that puts out the BS should be drafted, handed a gun, and sent to the front lines in Ukraine. They are traitors to the American people and always cheer to send our boys to die for the Neocon endless war machine. If you want to lie to force people to vote they way you want them to, go get a soap box and go to Central Park and preach in NYC or Speakers Corner in Hyde Park for te Brits.

Zelensky and Europe will ensure that whatever deal Trump tries to cut with Putin they will sabotage. So get ready, this winter, we will see Heating Oil (Diesel) soar to the $6 and it could even go to $8 by next March. This disgusting fake news get their taking points from the Neocons so they will NEVER check a single fact.

Remember when the Neocons had the press actually acuse Putin of blowing up his own pipeline? Shortly after the explosions, it was primarily Western officials and media who initially pointed the finger at Russia. Ukraine also accused Russia almost immediately. That was a fake news – the real distortion of reality. Then the stupidity of politicians like the Poland’s PM who praised the man for destroying Nord Stream Pipeline showing his ignorance what that would do to Germany and the EU economy.

Germany has finally arrested the Ukrainian who blew up Nord Stream and my sources have always pointed to Zelensky. He destroyed the Germany economy and the EU, and then has the audacity to beg for endless money to continue his Neo Nazi objectives.

I use to tell my daughter if she ever brought home a prosecutor, she will never be allowed in the house again. Today, that might have to be expanded to journalists.

QUESTION: Marty, I just have to complement you on Socrates. You created the only unbiased forecast of geopolitical issues and the economy with no partisan spin. Do you see unemployment in france continuing to rise in 2028?

P

ANSWER: Yes. Moving to war will help. I suppose the climate activists are claiming all the fires in Europe are the result of Climate Change – not protests. There are serious questions concerning France and that the government desperately needs a return to strong growth if it is to contain its rapidly rising debts. This does NOT seem likely into 2028. France has too much socialistic expectations, and it has let in such a vast amount of non-French migrants, they failed to look at history whereas rising unemployment with net-immigration leads to civil unrest. The riots of 1844 was over the Sovereign Debt Defaults of states in the 1840s combined with mass immigration from Ireland. Because the Irish were Catholics, the Protestants simplyused the religion for the excuse to riot during an economic decline.

The Black Sea is rapidly becoming too dangerous for international commerce. Commercial vessels have been attacked near Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Russia within days of one another. Ships carrying agricultural products and petroleum are being dragged into a war. Politicians seem to forget that global trade depends on moving goods safely between nations. Once commercial shipping becomes a target, the economic consequences extend far beyond Russia and Ukraine. Insurance premiums rise, freight rates increase, and eventually those additional costs are passed directly to consumers who have absolutely nothing to do with this war.

On October 5, a commercial vessel caught fire and sank off Romania, killing two people. The following day, two additional merchant vessels were struck by drones inside Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, with one reportedly sinking. Another vessel carrying agricultural oil was attacked near Odesa, while an oil tanker was struck off Russia’s Black Sea coast. Responsibility for some of these incidents remains disputed, but the economic consequences do not depend on which side launched the drones. Shipping companies must now calculate the possibility of losing an entire vessel and its cargo. Insurers must price that risk, and nobody in this business operates on charity.

People do not understand how quickly the cost of war moves through the global economy. A ship owner facing increased war-risk insurance premiums will demand higher compensation to enter dangerous waters. Charter rates rise, cargo owners seek alternative routes, and ports become increasingly expensive to operate. If insurance becomes unavailable at a commercially reasonable price, vessels simply stop sailing certain routes. Every additional expense becomes part of the final price, whether that means wheat, cooking oil, gasoline, or the thousands of other products.

The Black Sea is particularly important because Russia and Ukraine are major agricultural exporters. Egypt, Turkey, and numerous countries across Africa and the Middle East depend on grain moving through this region. These governments cannot simply replace millions of tonnes of wheat overnight without paying more. We have already seen how disruptions to food supplies can contribute to political instability. The Arab Spring was not merely some spontaneous movement for democracy. Rising food prices, unemployment, and deteriorating living standards helped create the conditions for unrest. When people cannot afford to feed their families, political stability becomes impossible.

The Black Sea provides access to important oil terminals and shipping routes, fueling the energy crisis. Attacking tankers and energy infrastructure increases the cost of transporting petroleum regardless of whether the underlying supply has been destroyed. Insurance companies do not distinguish between political propaganda and the actual probability of a vessel being struck.

What makes this especially absurd is that Europe is already struggling with the consequences of its own energy policies, sanctions, and declining industrial competitiveness. Germany has watched energy-intensive industries suffer while Brussels continues demanding greater military expenditure. Now the same geopolitical confrontation threatens to increase the cost of transporting energy and agricultural commodities. The public is expected to pay higher taxes to finance the war, higher energy bills because of the war, and higher food prices as the commercial consequences spread. These people in government never seem to consider that ordinary citizens must somehow pay for all of this.

The Black Sea does not have to be formally closed for the economic damage to become serious. It only has to become dangerous enough that commercial operators begin questioning whether the profits justify the risks. Once that happens, the market will make decisions that politicians cannot reverse with another press conference. The War Cycle is intensifying, and the consequences will not remain confined to the battlefield.

At least 16 trucking, delivery, and transportation companies entered bankruptcy proceedings between late August and September 21. These filings extend across general freight, construction materials, agricultural hauling, and even an Amazon delivery contractor. Some are seeking Chapter 11 protection to reorganize; others have entered Chapter 7 liquidation. We should not pretend every filing means a company has closed, but we should certainly ask why businesses moving the goods this economy depends upon are struggling to remain solvent.

Globemaster reported between $500,000 and $1 million in assets against liabilities ranging from $1 million to $10 million. Pacer Transport listed less than $50,000 in assets against $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. FreightWaves also points to rising diesel prices and elevated operating costs. A trucker cannot pay for fuel with a politician’s speech about how well the economy is doing.

I keep coming back to the distinction between spending and prosperity. A household spending more money to obtain the same necessities has not become wealthier. Neither has a business whose revenue rises while its expenses rise faster. You can move more dollars through an economy while leaving the people doing the work with less. That is why aggregate figures can look respectable while the operator sitting at his kitchen table discovers there is nothing left after paying everybody else.

If customers resist higher freight charges, the carrier absorbs the pressure until there is no margin left. Borrowing may buy time, but another loan does not repair an operation that cannot consistently earn enough to meet its obligations. Eventually, the creditor wants cash.

Energy costs are part of this squeeze. Fuel must be paid for immediately, while payment for hauling a load may come later. A carrier can collect a fuel surcharge and still face a cash shortage before that money arrives. Add truck payments, insurance, maintenance, and wages, and there is very little room for error. If freight revenue cannot keep pace with those bills, running the truck may produce activity without producing a profit. That is how a business can remain busy right up to the day it goes bankrupt.

When smaller operators disappear, surviving businesses may acquire their equipment and customers. That can help restore balance in an overcrowded market, but the adjustment comes through lost businesses, damaged credit, and interrupted livelihoods. The man who spent years building a fleet does not experience this as an encouraging economic correction. He experiences it as the destruction of everything he worked for.

These bankruptcies alone do not prove the entire country is in recession. They do show why I would pay attention to the businesses carrying the goods rather than accept every reassuring national average at face value. An economy needs people willing to take risks and enough profit to justify taking them. Keep squeezing that profit and eventually the trucks, the jobs, and the tax revenue go with it. Washington can roll over its debts and congratulate itself on another spending package. The private businessman has to make payroll on Friday.

Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary says jet fuel is now about 50% more expensive than before the Iran war and expects those elevated costs to persist for another 12 to 18 months. Reuters reports that he has previously warned ticket prices could rise by as much as 20% next summer. These are forecasts, but the pressure on airline margins is already here. “We are all facing an enormous cost challenge next year,” O’Leary said.

People assume that once the fighting stops, everything returns to normal. A ceasefire does not repair a refinery or restore damaged infrastructure overnight. Nor does a retreat in crude oil automatically produce an equivalent decline in the price of usable aviation fuel. Airlines need the finished product, delivered where their aircraft operate. You cannot fly a plane on a press release announcing that the oil market has stabilized.

Fuel hedging can buy an airline time, but it cannot permanently insulate the business from higher costs. As those contracts expire, management must decide how much it can pass to passengers and which routes remain worth operating. Raise fares too far and customers reconsider the trip. Absorb the increase and profitability suffers. Cheap tickets depend upon the economics of providing them, however much politicians would like to pretend otherwise.

Lufthansa is facing the same squeeze. CEO Carsten Spohr expects this year’s additional fuel costs to exceed the €1.5 billion previously projected, despite extensive hedging. The airline maintained its operating profit forecast, but rising costs are weighing on its turnaround plans. You can have passengers willing to fly and still struggle to improve profitability when the cost of carrying them keeps climbing. Hedging buys time; it does not manufacture fuel or permanently remove the expense. Those who believe an airline can simply absorb every increase should try running one.

EasyJet is already responding by cutting flights. The Financial Times reports that the airline will remove another 600,000 to 700,000 seats from its winter schedule, following an earlier reduction of about 700,000, to limit spending on expensive fuel. Routes that made sense at one fuel price become less attractive at another, and management pulls back. Fewer seats mean fewer opportunities to travel, with potential consequences for the hotels, restaurants, and businesses waiting for those visitors. Governments authorize military operations, and a holiday business hundreds of miles away discovers that its customers have fewer flights available to reach it. The consequences reach well beyond the airline. That is how an energy shock works its way through an economy, taking income from one business after another.

I have little patience for governments that discuss war as though its economic consequences can be contained within the country being attacked. Energy moves across borders, and so does the damage when its supply is disrupted. The public pays through fuel bills, freight charges, food prices, and now the cost of visiting family or taking a holiday. Officials can authorize another operation with a signature. The businesses trying to remain profitable must work out how to pay for the consequences.