Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% for the month after declining 0.4% in June, bringing the annual rate down slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.2% and declined on an annual basis from 2.6% to 2.5%. Yet inflation is not one number, and anyone looking only at 3.4% is missing what is taking place underneath the surface.

The first layer is energy, and this is where the headline number becomes extremely misleading. Energy prices declined another 1.5% in July after collapsing 5.7% in June, which restrained the overall CPI considerably. Gasoline fell 2.9% for the month, but gasoline is still 24.6% higher than one year ago. Fuel oil is up an astonishing 39.1% year over year, electricity is up 4.2%, natural gas is up 4.3%, and the entire energy index remains 14.7% above July 2025. So when they tell you inflation is cooling, they are describing the rate of change from June to July while ignoring what people are actually paying compared with last summer.

This is why I have disagreed with New York Fed President John Williams suggesting that inflation has peaked. That assumes the geopolitical situation has peaked, and there is no basis for making that assumption. The United States has been cushioning the energy shock by drawing down petroleum inventories, but those inventories eventually have to be replenished. The war involving Iran has not disappeared, the Middle East remains unstable, and Trump himself said this week that one option is to hit Tehran “really, really hard.”

War is inflationary from almost every direction. It raises oil and transportation costs, increases insurance premiums on shipping, disrupts fertilizer and agricultural markets, diverts industrial production into military production, creates shortages, and forces governments to borrow extraordinary sums to finance weapons and military operations. Europe is simultaneously embarking upon its largest military buildup in generations while already struggling with sovereign debt. Those costs eventually migrate through the world economy.

Food is the second layer, and here again the headline does not tell the story experienced by households. Overall food prices rose 0.1% in July and are 3% higher than one year ago. Grocery prices actually declined 0.1% for the month, helped by a 0.7% decline in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, a 1.5% drop in pork, and an extraordinary 16.4% decline in lettuce. Fruits and vegetables remain 5.1% more expensive than last year, nonalcoholic beverages are up 4.1%, cereals and bakery products are up 2.7%, and the overall grocery basket remains 2.7% higher.

Restaurant prices increased 0.3% in July and 3.4% over the year. Limited-service restaurants, which include many fast-food establishments that people traditionally used as inexpensive alternatives, raised prices 0.4% in a single month and 3.3% over the year. Full-service restaurants are up 3.4%. This reflects labor, rent, insurance, electricity, transportation, ingredients, and financing costs moving through the entire chain before the customer ever sees the menu.

Housing is the third layer and remains the largest burden for millions of households. Shelter increased only 0.1% in July, but that accounted for roughly two-thirds of the entire monthly increase in CPI because shelter carries such enormous weight in the index. Both actual rent and owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3% during the month, while shelter remains 3.2% higher than one year ago.

Healthcare provides yet another layer that cannot simply be dismissed as “core inflation.” Medical care increased 0.4% in July. Medical care services rose 0.6%, hospital services increased 0.5%, and physicians’ services advanced another 0.2%. Prescription drugs provided some relief by falling 0.8%, but anyone who actually pays insurance premiums, deductibles, hospital bills, or elder-care expenses knows that healthcare has become one of the largest financial threats facing American families.

Transportation presents an equally distorted picture. Gasoline declined in July, but airline fares jumped 2.2% in a single month and are now 25.5% higher than one year ago. Used cars and trucks increased 0.4% in July, although they remain 1.9% lower annually, while new vehicles edged 0.1% higher. Transportation services rose 0.3% during the month. Motor vehicle insurance finally declined 0.3% after falling 2% in June, but that comes after years in which insurance became one of the fastest-rising expenses in the household budget. A few months of moderation do not return those premiums to where they were before the surge.

Then there is the inflation buried throughout ordinary life that receives almost no attention. Communication costs increased 0.6% in July, education rose 0.5%, recreation increased 0.2%, apparel rose 0.1%, household furnishings increased, and services excluding energy services remain 3% higher than a year ago. Apparel is up 3.9% annually, recreation 2.6%, and household furnishings and operations 2.2%. These increases may appear small individually, but households pay all of them simultaneously.

This is where the entire political discussion about inflation becomes dishonest. Inflation falling from 3.5% to 3.4% does not mean prices fell 0.1%. It means the overall price level is still rising, only at a slightly slower annual rate. Actual deflation would be required to return the price level to where it was before.

There is also a fourth layer that CPI cannot adequately measure, which is asset inflation. A house, farmland, stocks, gold, and other tangible assets can rise because capital is moving away from government debt or because the purchasing power of money itself is declining. Someone who already owns assets can become wealthier during an inflationary period. This is how inflation widens the gap between classes even when the official statistics suggest conditions are improving.

The Federal Reserve will now debate whether 3.4% inflation and 2.5% core inflation justify holding rates steady or eventually easing policy. The Fed’s benchmark rate remains between 3.50% and 3.75%, and before today’s report markets were assigning roughly a 46% probability to a September increase. Yet the Fed is attempting to steer an economy whose largest inflation risks are increasingly geopolitical and fiscal rather than purely monetary. Washington is running massive structural deficits while the world is simultaneously increasing military expenditures and preparing for additional conflict. Interest rates cannot correct fiscal irresponsibility, nor can they negotiate peace in Ukraine or the Middle East.

Taiwan began seriously examining Ukraine’s battlefield experience after Russia invaded in 2022. Taipei has since partnered with Auterion, the American-German drone software company whose systems have been tested under actual combat conditions in Ukraine. Auterion CEO Lorenz Meier stated, “What we offer has been battle-tested in Ukraine to deter aggression and destroy tanks, naval vessels, and other truly expensive equipment.” That is precisely the lesson Taiwan needs. A smaller nation does not defeat an industrial giant buying program. It survives by dispersing thousands of inexpensive weapons that can remain hidden, move quickly, operate after command systems are damaged, and continue killing an invasion force when the conventional military structure begins to break down.

Taiwan is studying Ukraine because Ukraine has become the testing ground for how the next major war will be fought. The battles are no longer determined simply by who owns the most tanks, fighter jets, or aircraft carriers. Cheap drones are destroying equipment worth millions, mobile missiles are forcing fleets away from coastlines, electronic warfare is disabling sophisticated weapons, and factories must replace losses faster than the enemy can destroy them. Taiwan knows it cannot match China ship for ship or missile for missile. It must make the Taiwan Strait so costly, chaotic, and bloody that Beijing hesitates before giving the order to invade.

Taiwan introduced two domestically produced medium-range attack drones during its latest Han Kuang exercises. They were integrated into coastal combat operations alongside fast missile boats, special forces, and Coast Guard vessels. The drones resemble the loitering weapons Ukraine has used to reach behind Russian lines, attack supply routes, destroy equipment, and force Moscow to defend targets hundreds or even thousands of miles from the battlefield. Taiwan wants to apply the same principle to Chinese landing ships, command posts, ammunition vessels, radar systems, fuel depots, and troops attempting to establish a beachhead.

Taipei is considering NT$210 billion, approximately $6.6 billion, for surveillance and attack drones through 2031, while an alternative legislative proposal would authorize NT$240 billion. Broader plans call for purchasing as many as 200,000 aerial drones and 1,000 unmanned surface vessels, with an industrial goal of producing 100,000 drones per month by 2030. Taiwan also intends to expand its anti-ship missile arsenal beyond 1,800 weapons by early 2029. Many will be placed on mobile launchers that can hide in tunnels, under bridges, inside warehouses, and throughout Taiwan’s mountainous terrain before moving immediately after firing.

The timing should not be ignored. The computer’s international War Cycle identified 2026 as a Panic Cycle, with the cycle building into 2027 and a critical Taiwan and China period emerging around 2029. That does not mean China must invade on one predetermined day. Cycles identify the period when pressure, political miscalculation, capital movement, military preparation, and international conflict begin converging. We have already entered the expansion phase. The Ukraine conflict has spread deeper into Russia, the Middle East has erupted, Europe is militarizing, Japan is abandoning its postwar restraints, and Taiwan is transforming itself into a heavily armed island fortress. These are not isolated stories. They are symptoms of the same global turn toward war.

The 2029 target is particularly disturbing because military preparations now being announced are scheduled to mature around that same period. Taiwan wants more than 1,800 anti-ship missiles by early 2029. Drone production is being pushed toward enormous capacity by 2030. China is expanding its navy, missile forces, nuclear arsenal, amphibious capabilities, and converted drone fleet now. Governments do not spend these sums because they expect eternal peace. They see the same horizon even if they refuse to tell the public what they are preparing for.

Taiwan is also attempting to create a “non-red” drone industry that does not depend upon Chinese components. This is essential. A nation cannot claim to possess an independent defense industry when the motors, batteries, circuit boards, magnets, cameras, communications equipment, and navigation systems inside its weapons come from the country it expects to fight. Ukraine discovered that supply chains are weapons. Taiwan understands that Beijing could restrict critical components before firing a single missile, crippling production while Chinese factories continue operating at full capacity.

Taiwanese companies have reportedly sent more than 100,000 drones to Ukraine through intermediaries since 2025. Some Taiwanese systems have been submitted to Ukrainian forces for battlefield testing, where they face electronic jamming, GPS denial, broken communications, extreme weather, and an enemy that adapts within days.

Taiwan has even begun teaching civilians how to fly drones manually without depending on GPS or automated navigation. Civil-defense organizations are training ordinary people in reconnaissance, communications, first aid, emergency response, and drone operation. This is gritty preparation because Taiwan understands that if China attacks, there will be no safe rear area. Ports will be hit, power may disappear, cellular networks could fail, hospitals could be overwhelmed, and civilian infrastructure will become part of the battlefield almost immediately. There will be no time to learn these skills after the bombs begin falling.

The difference between Ukraine and Taiwan remains enormous. NATO can move artillery shells, fuel, vehicles, medical supplies, and replacement weapons into Ukraine across a long land border with Poland and other European states. Taiwan has no Poland. It is an island surrounded by water, sitting barely 100 miles from mainland China. Once Beijing imposes a naval and air blockade, the weapons Taiwan failed to stockpile beforehand may never arrive. Every missile, drone, spare part, generator, medical kit, and barrel of fuel needed to survive must already be on the island, protected and dispersed before the first strike.

This is why all the talk about treating Taiwan like Ukraine is dangerous nonsense. The United States cannot wait until an invasion begins and then debate arms packages for six months. A Chinese blockade could prevent those weapons from ever reaching Taiwanese forces. CSIS concluded that there is no real “Ukraine model” for Taiwan because Taiwan must begin the war with nearly everything it expects to use. If the stockpiles are insufficient on the first day, Congress cannot repair that failure by holding another press conference.

A war with China would be the most dangerous conflict the United States has encountered since World War II, and Washington is not remotely prepared for the scale of destruction. China is not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Serbia. It is a nuclear power with the world’s largest navy by hull count, a massive missile inventory, extensive cyber and space capabilities, and an industrial base that can manufacture ships, drones, electronics, and munitions on a scale the United States abandoned years ago. America outsourced manufacturing to China, enriched its future adversary, depleted its weapons in peripheral wars, and now talks as though victory in the Pacific would be quick and painless.

CSIS ran 24 simulations of a Chinese invasion. The United States and its allies usually prevented China from occupying Taiwan, but the supposed victory was horrific. The United States lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, thousands of troops, and normally two aircraft carriers within a few weeks. Taiwan’s navy was destroyed and its economy was devastated. Japan lost ships and aircraft as its bases became targets. China also suffered enormous losses, but that does not make the destruction disappear. A victory that leaves carriers at the bottom of the Pacific, thousands dead, and Taiwan reduced to rubble is not the clean triumph politicians will sell to the public.

Another CSIS assessment found that the United States could exhaust some critical long-range precision-guided munitions within the first week of a Taiwan conflict. One week. Washington has spent years handing weapons to allies while pretending inventories are infinite and production lines can be restarted with the stroke of a pen. Ships take years to build. Missile factories cannot multiply output overnight. Skilled workers, machine tools, microelectronics, propellants, and specialized components cannot be summoned because Congress approves another trillion dollars.

China could also strike American bases in Japan, Guam, and elsewhere across the Pacific. Supply networks, satellites, ports, fuel storage facilities, communications cables, and power systems would all become targets. Americans have not experienced a major-power war in the modern age and have been conditioned to believe conflict is something watched on television from a safe distance. That illusion would disappear the moment ships were sunk, bases destroyed, communications disrupted, and thousands of casualty notifications began reaching American homes.

The War Cycle is not moving toward stability. It is moving toward greater confrontation as we approach 2027 and the critical 2029 period for Taiwan and China. Taiwan is preparing because it sees what happened to Ukraine when diplomacy failed and politicians assumed war could be controlled. Washington continues pretending it can fight Russia indirectly, wage war in the Middle East, defend Europe, confront China, and finance the entire operation with endless debt.

Europe has spent years talking about “de-risking” from China while the physical infrastructure connecting European consumers to Chinese production continues expanding in the opposite direction. The latest development is in Kazakhstan, where construction is underway on the new Beineu-Saksaulsk highway that will dramatically shorten the overland route connecting China with Europe. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport says the project will eliminate almost 1,000 kilometers from existing transit routes, cut delivery times by as much as three days, and could increase cargo volumes along the route by 2.5 times. This is unquestionably good news for China because Beijing does not need Europe to embrace China politically when economics keeps pulling the two together.

The project involves roughly 800 kilometers of new highway running through Kazakhstan’s Mangystau, Aktobe, and Kyzylorda regions toward the Caspian ports of Aktau and Kuryk, with completion scheduled for 2029. From there, cargo can cross the Caspian into Azerbaijan, continue through Georgia and Türkiye, and enter European markets without traveling through Russia. This is part of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, better known as the Middle Corridor, which already stretches more than 4,000 kilometers from western China into Europe. What was once discussed as an alternative trade route is steadily becoming a serious piece of Eurasian infrastructure.

China benefits enormously from this development because transportation is one of the hidden costs determining whether manufacturing remains competitive. Saving nearly 1,000 kilometers does not merely shorten a line on a map. It reduces fuel consumption, driver time, equipment utilization, warehousing requirements, and potentially the amount of capital trapped inside goods while they are traveling between manufacturer and customer. If Kazakhstan succeeds in cutting three days from the journey while increasing capacity 2.5-fold, Chinese exporters gain another commercially viable route into one of the world’s wealthiest consumer markets.

This comes at exactly the right moment for Beijing. Western governments have spent the past several years trying to reduce their dependence on Chinese manufacturing, yet China remains extraordinarily difficult to replace because it possesses something politicians cannot recreate by legislation: an industrial ecosystem built over decades. China produces the machinery, batteries, electronics, chemicals, solar equipment, components, consumer goods, and increasingly the automobiles that foreign markets demand. Tariffs can make those products more expensive, but improving transportation networks work in the opposite direction by reducing friction between Chinese factories and foreign consumers.

The Middle Corridor has already undergone a remarkable expansion since the Ukraine conflict disrupted the traditional northern trade route through Russia. Cargo volume across the Caspian portion of the corridor increased more than 63% in 2024 alone to approximately 4.1 million tons, compared with roughly 500,000 tons before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other estimates indicate freight traffic along the broader corridor has increased nearly tenfold since 2022. The countries along the route are now targeting 600 container trains originating in China and traveling through Kazakhstan during 2026. That is no longer some theoretical Belt and Road project sitting on a planning document. Commerce is already moving.

Kazakhstan may emerge as one of the largest beneficiaries because geography has become an economic asset. The country sits between China, Russia, the Caspian Sea, and the European market, giving it the ability to become a logistics bridge between East and West. Kazakhstan has established seven international road corridors and is investing heavily in railways, ports, highways, terminals, and digital infrastructure. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s government clearly understands that controlling the roads through which international commerce moves can be almost as valuable as producing the goods themselves.

Europe is also pouring money into this corridor because Brussels wants transportation routes that bypass Russia. Kazakhstan and European partners announced another $462 million in Middle Corridor agreements in June, while EU investment in Kazakhstan has already exceeded $200 billion and bilateral trade reached $45.1 billion during 2025. Brussels sees this as strategic diversification away from Moscow, but China can use precisely the same infrastructure to deepen commercial access to Europe. The Europeans may believe they are constructing strategic autonomy, while Beijing sees another road leading directly from Chinese manufacturing centers toward European customers.

Beijing’s Belt and Road strategy was never merely about owning ports or financing foreign construction projects. The larger objective has been connectivity. Every additional railway, highway, pipeline, terminal, and logistics hub increases China’s access to markets while reducing dependence on maritime routes vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. China remains heavily dependent upon ocean shipping, and any confrontation involving Taiwan or the South China Sea would expose that vulnerability immediately. A functioning network of Eurasian land corridors therefore has strategic value extending far beyond the price of transporting another container of electronics to Germany.

There is also a lesson here for those who believe tariffs alone can reverse China’s manufacturing advantage. Europe can impose duties on Chinese electric vehicles and politicians can announce another investigation into Chinese subsidies, but European consumers will continue looking at price. If a Chinese manufacturer can produce an electric vehicle, battery, solar panel, or industrial component substantially cheaper than its European competitor and the transportation network becomes faster and more efficient, Brussels will find itself fighting economics with regulations. That becomes increasingly difficult when European industry is already burdened by high energy prices, taxation, environmental mandates, labor costs, and regulation.

China does not need to conquer Europe to increase its influence. Trade has always been far more powerful than political speeches because supply chains create relationships that governments eventually find difficult to unwind. The Middle Corridor is gradually constructing another economic artery across Eurasia, and Kazakhstan’s new highway removes nearly 1,000 kilometers from that system while potentially multiplying its cargo capacity. Europe may celebrate because the route bypasses Russia, Kazakhstan will profit because it becomes the bridge, but China gains something even more valuable: another faster road into the European marketplace.

QUESTION: Marty, do you have the video they took down from YouTube because it showed John McCain advocating revolution in Ukraine? You said the US overthrew the elected Iranian government and installed the Shah which is why they call the US the Great Satan.  You also posted that video with the former NSA head admitting the US interferers in other people’s elections. Do you have any idea how many?

Rich

ANSWER: Here is the banned McCain Video promising peace when they instantaneously then installed an unelected government and the instructed it to attack the Russian in the Donbas starting this civil war. Here is the infamous recording of Victoria Nuland selecting who should be president of Ukraine.

Between 1947 and 1989, the U.S. is estimated to have carried out 64 covert operations aimed at subverting foreign governments. This includes actions like the 1953 overthrow of Iran’s Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, which is the source of the term ” Great Satan ” for the USA. They also pulled off the 1954 coup in Guatemala.

I believe that Hillary blamed Putin for her loss in 2016 because she was behind the attempt to rig the Russian 2000 election. She then fabricated evidence to try to grab the presidency from Trump.

Mueller’s Report is what was expected. The entire proposed Russian hack was really simply gained by a fake email saying reset your password known as a phishing email. The report does conclude that the Trump campaign did not conspire with Russia during the 2016 election, according to the letter from Barr to Congress. It notes that Mueller’s investigation found the campaign was given “multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign” but no one within the campaign or “anyone associated with it” conspired with Russia.

I am not surprised by the statement that there has not been a true election free of some trying to rig the outcome. Stalin was right about elections. It is always those who count the votes who decides, not the voters. To think that the United States is any more honorable than any other nation is delusional.

I never considered myself an academic economist. I was a trader. That distinction has led me around the world with a front-row seat all because the floating exchange rate was born on August 15th, 1971 and even then it was supposed to be just temporary. Foreign Exchange futures just began trading in 1972. That only emerged when it was becoming obvious that what was intended to be temporary was becoming permanent. Consequently, none of this was ever taugt in school. When the first bank failure took place in 1974, Franklin National Bank, I knew a senior man in the bank and he knew I understood this new thing of floating currencies. This was all before hedging or understanding currency risk. The bank failed on a 10% move of the Italian lira. There were no academics to call in back then. After I looked at the problem, thereafter, whatever currency crisis that developed it came down to get the guy that did the Franklin National Bank one.

This book is about how the world economy really functions. I have been called in from the Middle East even being on the phone in an OPEC meeting to being called by by the central bank of China during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. I have attended many board meetings of major multinational corporations and restructured companies to survive the new age of international capital flows.

I have tried my best to relay what I have experienced and learned over more than 50 years. I have witnessed the evolution of the world economy from every side and it has been a fascinating journey. This is a text book on how the world really functions with just over 600 pages fully illustrated in color.

It is also time to abandon domestically confined analysis and theories and understand how the world truly functions, for everything is interconnected.

Understanding the World Economy

The world seems to have learned absolutely nothing from COVID. Governments destroyed supply chains through lockdowns, shortages spread from semiconductors to automobiles, freight rates exploded, inflation followed, and politicians then acted surprised when consumers could no longer afford the same standard of living. We are now watching another supply-chain shock develop, except this time the source is not government lockdowns. It is WAR, and the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly becoming the choke point through which the economic consequences will spread.

Reuters reported that only SIX vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. That compares with an average of about 11 during the previous 10 days, which is already disastrous when you understand what normal traffic looked like. Before this war, roughly 130 to 140 ships crossed the Strait every day.

The Strait of Hormuz is not merely about crude oil. The Persian Gulf is an artery connecting the global economy to oil, LNG, LPG, refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, fertilizers, aluminum, industrial materials, and countless products whose manufacturing costs depend upon cheap energy. Reuters reported that of the mere six vessels crossing Monday, four commodity vessels entered while only two departed. The outbound ships were carrying liquefied petroleum gas and residual fuels. This is becoming a bottleneck at the very foundation of industrial production.

Oil exports through Hormuz have already been severely reduced. Reuters reported separately that weekly oil exports through the Strait recently fell to about 3 million barrels per day from 4.4 million. Brent briefly touched $90.03 on Tuesday before pulling back, while WTI reached $84.61. Markets are still trading every rumor concerning negotiations between Iran, Oman, and the United States as if politicians can simply announce peace and everything instantly returns to normal. That is not how supply chains function.

Everything moves through transportation. Companies compensate by carrying additional inventory, which ties up capital. Manufacturers pay more for inputs and ultimately pass those costs downstream. Governments will blame corporations for “price gouging” because admitting that geopolitics created the inflation would require admitting responsibility for the policies that helped create the crisis.

Then there is LNG. Europe spent years destroying its relationship with Russia and restructuring its energy supply under the assumption that replacement energy could simply be purchased somewhere else. Qatar became critically important to that strategy, particularly for LNG. Japan and other Asian economies are likewise heavily dependent upon imported energy. If Gulf LNG shipments remain constrained, Europe and Asia will increasingly compete for alternative cargoes, and that competition does not magically create additional natural gas. It simply raises the price.

The economic consequences extend far beyond gasoline. Natural gas is critical to fertilizer production. Petrochemicals feed plastics, packaging, pharmaceuticals, textiles, electronics, construction materials, and manufacturing. Energy is embedded in virtually everything you purchase. A sustained disruption therefore moves through the economy in waves. First energy. Then transportation. Then industrial inputs. Then manufacturing. Then food. Finally consumer prices.

This is why wars become economic events regardless of whether the fighting occurs thousands of miles away. There is also another major problem that few politicians understand. The world never truly rebuilt resilient supply chains after the pandemic. Corporations diversified some suppliers and governments suddenly discovered the phrase “supply-chain security,” but the fundamental structure remains dependent upon enormous volumes of goods moving through a handful of maritime choke points. Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, Malacca, and Panama are arteries of globalization. Disrupt one and costs rise. Disrupt several simultaneously and globalization itself begins to fracture.

Bab el-Mandeb remains operational for now. Reuters reported 25 vessels crossed there Monday, close to its 10-day average of 24. That does not eliminate the danger. The Houthis have already demonstrated that commercial shipping in the Red Sea can become a military target. We therefore have instability surrounding TWO critical maritime corridors connected to the Middle East while the Ukraine war continues disrupting another major source of energy, grain, fertilizer, and commodities.

This is precisely why the War Cycle matters economically. War is never isolated to the battlefield. Politicians calculate military objectives while capital calculates RISK. Capital does not care about patriotic speeches. Insurance companies do not insure vessels because some politician promises everything will be fine. Businesses do not invest billions based upon diplomatic rhetoric. Capital retreats when uncertainty rises, and once it retreats, governments discover that restoring confidence is considerably more difficult than destroying it.

The preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement reached in June has already broken down. Iran is demanding sanctions relief and compensation. Trump has responded with demands that Iran itself pay compensation for deaths arising from wars, attacks, and protests. Meanwhile, commercial vessels are disappearing from Hormuz while politicians negotiate over who owes whom money.

The world should be paying attention to the ships, not the speeches. When normal traffic is 130 to 140 vessels per day and suddenly we are counting SIX, something is profoundly wrong. If this persists, inventories will tighten and shortages will emerge unevenly across industries and countries. The public will probably not recognize the connection immediately. They will simply notice that another product takes longer to arrive, another manufacturer announces a surcharge, another utility bill rises, another airline increases fares, another food producer raises prices, and another government statistic claims inflation is somehow under control.

The next supply-chain crisis does not need to resemble 2020. There does not need to be empty toilet-paper aisles for the economic damage to be severe. This version can manifest through energy shortages, freight bottlenecks, fertilizer prices, industrial inputs, shipping delays, insurance costs, and another wave of inflation hitting households that have never recovered from the last one.

Watch Hormuz very carefully. Six ships where there were once 130 to 140 is not normal commerce. It is a warning.

I find these newly released messages because they expose once again how differently these people spoke privately compared with the absolute certainty projected upon the public. Senators Ron Johnson and Rand Paul have now released an initial batch of messages recovered from Anthony Fauci’s government-issued iPhone, reportedly containing more than 34,000 texts. In January 2021, while officials were discussing vaccination during pregnancy, Fauci himself raised a concern about the second dose and wrote that it “theoretically could be associated with miscarriage in the 1st trimester.” That is Fauci’s language, not mine.

Fauci said the second jab specifically raised fever and what he called a “cytokine storm.” Vivek Murthy responded that Fauci had raised “a really good point” and said it was worth examining. Fauci also noted that more than 10,000 pregnant women had already received the vaccine without apparent “red flags,” but these women and unborn children were used as test subjects. Behind closed doors these officials were discussing uncertainty while the public conversation increasingly became one in which anyone asking difficult questions was treated like an idiot.

Pregnant women deserved to know precisely what government officials knew, what they did not know, and what they were privately debating. In January 2021, nobody possessed five or ten years of pregnancy data for these vaccines because that data could not possibly have existed. Instead, “the science” mandated these vaccines and insisted they were safe and effective for everyone from newborns to unborn babies in utero.

By July 30, 2021, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine were recommending vaccination for pregnant women, with ACOG saying there was evidence of “safe and effective use” during pregnancy. On August 11, the CDC went further and issued a statement literally titled “New CDC Data: COVID-19 Vaccination Safe for Pregnant People,” recommending vaccination during pregnancy after citing surveillance data showing no increased miscarriage signal.

By September, ACOG declared that its message “cannot be stronger or clearer” and described vaccination during pregnancy as “safe and effective.” In January, Fauci was privately discussing a first-trimester miscarriage concern surrounding the second dose; months later, America’s most powerful health organizations insisted upon vaccinations. The public deserved to understand how officials went from one position to the other, but asking questions during the COVID madness era was not permitted. You were to blindly follow “the science” and condemn anyone who dared to inquire.

A federal study was published in April 2021 depicting the miscarriage rate at around 12.6% for pregnant women exposed to the mRNA vaccine. The science decreed that remaining unvaccinated was a far deadlier risk to pregnant women and their unborn children. We know now that the vaccine failed to prevent against infection or transmission. FAR WORSE: the federal study actually documents a MISCARRIAGE RATE OF 82% for women who took the toxin in their second or third trimester. The study showed that the vaccination had the exact same rate of miscarriage as the abortion pill. WOMEN WERE MISLED TO ABORT THEIR CHILDREN. How is there not an absolute uproar over these findings?

Johnson and Paul say these messages are only an initial release from more than 34,000 recovered texts. Paul has already sought answers from Fauci concerning other aspects of the government’s pandemic response, while Johnson says additional records should be examined. Release them ALL. Stop protecting bureaucracies, pharmaceutical companies, politicians, Republicans, Democrats, or anyone else. The government spent years demanding transparency from ordinary Americans while treating its own internal deliberations as something the public had no right to see.

Health agencies across the world reiterated the “SAFE AND EFFECTIVE” messaging and actively targeted pregnant women in marketing campaigns.

The greatest scandal of COVID may ultimately be the destruction of trust. People were told to trust government officials because they possessed information ordinary citizens did not. Now, years later, internal emails and texts continue showing something much more human: officials debating uncertainties, questioning evidence, worrying about risks and sometimes disagreeing among themselves. That is actually how science is supposed to work. What was unacceptable was pretending before the public that such uncertainty barely existed.

People were making decisions about their bodies, pregnancies, livelihoods and families. They had every right to know what their government was discussing. Anything less was an abuse of public trust.

Zelensky is once again complaining that Russia is receiving ballistic missiles from North Korea. The Kyiv Independent reported that he accused Moscow of preparing to receive additional North Korean ballistic missiles, declaring that Russia cannot continue the war without Pyongyang’s assistance. North Korean missiles have reportedly been used in attacks that killed Ukrainian civilians, and that deserves condemnation. But there is an obvious hypocrisy: Ukraine has spent years shopping the world for missiles, ammunition, aircraft, artillery, intelligence, and financing. Apparently, foreign missiles become an unacceptable internationalization of the war only when they are pointed in the opposite direction.

Ukraine has received British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, French SCALP missiles and American ATACMS, and Western restrictions governing their use have progressively changed during the war. Kyiv is now reportedly purchasing another 70 American-made ATACMS missiles from Turkey, subject to U.S. authorization. Zelensky cannot demand additional foreign missiles capable of reaching deeper into Russia and simultaneously act astonished that Russia went shopping for foreign missiles of its own.

The missile does not care what flag was painted on the shipping crate. This is how politicians play the war game. Britain supplies missiles and calls it defense, France supplies missiles and calls it defense, America supplies missiles and calls it defense. North Korea supplies missiles and suddenly everyone screams that the war is being internationalized. Moscow is guilty of precisely the same hypocrisy when it condemns NATO weapons while accepting North Korean missiles and ammunition. Every government has invented a moral exemption for its own escalation while condemning identical behavior from the other side.

Ukraine is developing longer-range weapons and celebrating strikes thousands of kilometers inside Russia while condemning Moscow for expanding its own foreign weapons supply. Support from North Korea can hardly be compared to support from the entirety of NATO.

The civilian deaths are the tragedy buried beneath all this political hypocrisy. Ukrainians die from Russian and North Korean missiles. Russians have also died during Ukrainian long-range attacks and drone strikes. Those civilians did not decide which country should manufacture the weapon that eventually landed near them.

QUESTION: You said Iran is playing 3-D Chess while we are playing checkers. That Iran is also using tactics to disrupt the Israeli and US elections. Can you provide any details to that assessment?

Jeb

ANSWER: There is never anything new under the sun. When the infighting with a country is dominant, an adversary can use that to prevent a unified decision of defense as they argue among themselves. This is the position the United States finds itself in and within Israel, the resistance toward Netanyahu is significant.

This tactic has been adopted through history in military confrontations. I remember I discussed that with the Citadel Military College of South Carolina back in the ’80s when the wanted to teach the ECM to their students. I am not certain if they ever taught this at West Point.

The example is Philip II of Macedon, Alexander the Great’s father. Philip brilliantly used this precise tactic to undermine Athens, which allowed him to conquer Athens and all of Greece. The political infighting in Athens significantly undermined its ability to respond to the rising threat of Macedon.

Iran is employing the same tactic today, knowing that the Democrats will champion their cause simply because Trump is the opposition. Fanning this division prevents any cohesive response to Iran as took place during the conquest of Greece by Philip II.

This polarization of politics within ancient Athens contributed directly to its loss of independence at the Battle of Chaeronea in 338BC. The city’s democratic system, while a source of strength, proved vulnerable to a combination of internal factionalism and the strategic exploitation of these divisions by Philip II of Macedon.

While Philip’s son, Alexander the Great, is famous for his military genius, his approach to conquering the vast Persian Empire was adopting this tactic. He primarily relied on decisive military force, but he was also highly strategic in cultivating political factions within conquered territories to secure his rule.

Alexander’s primary strategy was to decisively seek a military confrontation to shatter the enemy’s power. His goal was to bring the Persian King, Darius III, to battle and defeat him in a way that would make him the uncontested ruler of Asia. By winning decisive victories like those at Granicus and Gaugamela, he made himself the de facto King of Kings, which led to major cities like Babylon and Persepolis surrendering to him without a fight.

Julius Caesar is closely associated with the “divide and conquer” (“divide et impera”) strategy, he adopted in his strategy during the Gallic Wars (58–50 BC). He faced a significant challenge: the Gauls were numerous and possessed formidable cavalry, but they were organized into dozens of small, independent, and often rivalrous tribes. Caesar brilliantly exploited this disunity. He actively sowed discord among the Gallic tribes, forming strategic alliances with some (like the Aedui and Remi) to help him defeat others.

Exploiting the division between Democrat and Republican is the key strategy to drag this out to undermine the Trump Administration and embarass it precisely as they did to Jimmy Carter. This is a well establish strategy to employ against an adversary. This seems to go over the heads of those in media because they are too busy reading the scripts written for them by the Neocons like the Institute Study for [Perpetual] War.

COMMENT: Marty, your report “Is It Time to Nuke Kiev?” really brings things into focus. The U.S. ended World War II by using nuclear weapons on Hiroshima, and Russia might be driven down a similar path—largely because of this current idiot in charge. I’m genuinely stunned that he’s attempting to interfere in Russian elections. What a reckless move.

PA

ANSWER: He is a puppet. The Neocons always think of just taking some action that is in front of their nose without ever thinking through what comes next. Zelensky’s attacks are more likely to ensure that the Hawks gain the majority, and they want Putin to get serious. They have also forced a change in the definition from a “special operation” to “war with Ukraine.” The Neocons think they are righteous and everyone else is evil or inferior. They seem to believe their own propaganda. I have actually heard that if they overthrow Putin, the people will rise up and cheer. They said the same about Iraq and Iran not to mention Vietnam and Afghanistan. The last I checked, I do not recall the people cheering them or giving them their mythical tickertape parade.

While everyone is paying attention to Iran, this is far more serious.