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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

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Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

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The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Canada’s Military Recruitment Boom – Poverty or Patriotism?

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The Canadian government is trying to sell the public a fairy tale about patriotism, NATO, and defending democracy, but the recruitment surge inside the military has far more to do with economic decay than national pride. Whenever governments cannot provide economic opportunity, they suddenly rediscover the virtues of military service. This has happened throughout history because when civilian economies begin breaking down, the military becomes one of the last remaining employers offering stability, housing, benefits, and a paycheck that arrives on time.

Canada’s Armed Forces just recorded their strongest recruitment numbers in more than 30 years. Over 7,300 Regular Force members enrolled during fiscal year 2025–2026, surpassing official targets while applications reportedly exploded from roughly 21,700 to more than 40,000. The politicians immediately rushed out claiming young Canadians were responding to threats from Russia, China, Trump, or global instability.

Youth unemployment in Canada has climbed toward 14% to 14.6%, levels not seen consistently since the aftermath of the 2008 financial collapse outside the pandemic distortions. Full-time employment has been deteriorating while temporary and part-time work increasingly dominate the economy. Canada lost more than 111,000 full-time jobs during just the first four months of 2026. Entire generations are now graduating into an economy where the old social contract no longer exists.

Young Canadians cannot afford homes. Many cannot even afford rent without multiple roommates despite holding degrees that were sold to them as tickets into the middle class. In Toronto and Vancouver, housing prices have become completely detached from reality. The average young worker understands they may never own property under the current system no matter how hard they work. Meanwhile, food costs rise, debt burdens climb, taxes increase, and wages fail to keep pace with the actual cost of living.

Then the government acts confused when military recruitment suddenly surges. This pattern is as old as history itself. Recruitment rises when economic opportunity collapses. Government never admit this publicly because it destroys the heroic propaganda surrounding enlistment. During economic booms, militaries struggle to recruit because young people have alternatives. During periods of economic stress, enlistment rises because the military offers something increasingly rare in the modern economy: predictability.

The military now offers stable income, subsidized education, housing assistance, healthcare, pensions, and long-term career structure. For many younger Canadians, that has become more attractive than trying to survive inside an economy increasingly dominated by contract work, inflated housing, and financial insecurity.

Ottawa continues flooding the country with immigration to artificially maintain labor force growth because domestic demographic trends have collapsed. The government itself has admitted immigration now accounts for nearly all labor force expansion. That places enormous downward pressure on younger workers already struggling to compete for jobs, housing, and wages in oversaturated urban markets.

The establishment refuses to discuss this honestly because the entire economic model has become dependent on population growth masking structural weakness. Canada’s GDP numbers may look respectable on paper, but GDP per capita growth has stagnated while living standards deteriorate for large parts of the younger population. That distinction matters enormously because governments manipulate aggregate statistics to conceal declining individual prosperity.

Politicians created one of the least affordable housing markets in the developed world while simultaneously producing a labor market where stable employment is disappearing. Then they celebrate military enlistment as if it were some spontaneous wave of patriotism instead of a warning sign that civilian economic opportunity is deteriorating.

When younger generations lose faith that hard work will produce home ownership, financial security, or upward mobility, societies begin changing structurally. Family formation declines. Birth rates collapse. Private debt rises. Institutions like the military then become economic escape valves for populations that increasingly see fewer alternatives.

The Canadian government wants the public to believe this recruitment surge reflects patriotism. The truth? Large numbers of young Canadians are turning toward the military because the civilian economy is no longer providing the stability that previous generations once took for granted.

They Are LYING About Inflation

inflation

The government will never tell the truth about inflation because if they did, confidence would collapse. They always alter the formulas, revise the definitions, and pretend the economy is improving while the average person knows damn well something is seriously wrong. The April producer price numbers are simply confirming what anyone running a business already knows. Costs are rising across the board again and this time it is working through the production side of the economy where the damage becomes far more dangerous.

Producer prices jumped 1.4% in April, the largest monthly increase since 2022, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 6.0%. That is not some isolated blip the talking heads on television can explain away with clever slogans. This is the type of inflation that bleeds through the entire economic chain because producers cannot absorb rising costs indefinitely. Eventually they pass everything directly onto the consumer because survival comes first.

This is what people fail to understand about inflation. It does not begin at the checkout counter. By the time consumers notice prices exploding, the inflationary wave has already moved through energy, transportation, raw materials, warehousing, financing, and manufacturing. The disease starts deep inside the production structure itself.

Energy was once again the primary culprit. Gasoline prices surged over 15% during the month while diesel fuel climbed sharply as tensions in the Middle East continue escalating. Every war in the Middle East eventually becomes an economic event because oil remains the lifeblood of industrial civilization no matter how many politicians pretend otherwise. You cannot sanction major producers, threaten shipping lanes, attack fossil fuels, and simultaneously expect stable prices. That is fantasy economics taught by people who have never run anything except deficits.

Everything depends on energy. Food prices rise because transportation rises. Construction rises because machinery rises. Manufacturing rises because production costs rise. Diesel fuels the trucks moving goods across the country. Once energy spikes, inflation infects the entire system like a cancer.

The report showed rising costs in trucking, storage, wholesale trade, and machinery production. That is where this becomes serious because it proves inflation is spreading structurally through the economy rather than remaining isolated inside one sector. This is exactly how inflation behaved during previous monetary crises. It starts gradually and then becomes embedded.

At the same time, governments continue borrowing with complete abandon as if debt no longer matters. Washington is issuing debt at a pace that historically only appeared during major wars, yet politicians continue promising more spending programs while pretending deficits are irrelevant. Central banks are trapped by their own policies. Raise rates further and sovereign debt servicing begins spiraling out of control. Lower rates too quickly and inflation erupts again. There is no painless solution because the entire system has been mismanaged for decades.

People sense this instinctively even if economists refuse to admit it publicly. Families know their standard of living is collapsing. Insurance premiums continue rising. Grocery prices remain elevated. Utility bills climb. Housing costs are becoming impossible for younger generations. Yet the media continues celebrating tiny changes in manipulated inflation statistics as if the crisis has passed.

The real problem is that this inflation is no longer merely monetary. The world economy itself is fragmenting. War risks are disrupting trade routes. Sanctions are distorting commodity markets. Europe’s energy suicide has raised industrial costs globally. Governments are desperately trying to maintain welfare states and military spending simultaneously while drowning in debt. This is not normal cyclical inflation. This is systemic deterioration.

Once inflation enters the production chain, it tends to become persistent because businesses restructure prices permanently to survive. That is when inflation becomes politically dangerous. Small businesses disappear first because they cannot absorb financing and energy costs indefinitely. Consumers reduce discretionary spending. Economic confidence declines. Capital begins searching for safety elsewhere.

The politicians will continue insisting inflation is under control because admitting reality would expose the scale of the financial mismanagement. But the April producer price report is another warning sign that the underlying pressure inside the economy is building once again. The crisis never ended. They merely stopped reporting it honestly.

Half a Million Waiting in Libya to Invade Europe

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Europe is sleepwalking straight into another migration catastrophe, and the politicians responsible for destroying the continent still refuse to admit what they have done. Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris has now openly warned that roughly 550,000 migrants are currently waiting in Libya for the opportunity to cross the Mediterranean into Europe. Half a million people are sitting there like a pressure bomb waiting to explode while Brussels continues babbling about “humanitarian values” and “European solidarity” as if slogans can replace borders.

The insanity of this entire crisis is that Europe created it with its own foreign policy disasters and then criminalized anyone warning about the consequences. The destruction of Libya under NATO was one of the greatest acts of geopolitical stupidity in modern European history. Before the overthrow of Gaddafi, Libya maintained control over migration routes across North Africa. The moment NATO decided to impose its fantasy version of democracy through bombs and regime change, the entire region collapsed into chaos. Militias, traffickers, criminal gangs, and smuggling networks filled the vacuum immediately. Europe shattered the gate and now pretends shocked outrage every time millions begin pouring through it.

Libya became the primary staging ground because there is no functioning state left capable of controlling the coastline. Estimates now place the migrant population inside Libya somewhere between 700,000 and 2.5 million people depending on the source. Think about the madness of that situation. Libya itself only has a population of roughly 7 million. Entire regions are now controlled by trafficking operations making fortunes moving people into Europe while European taxpayers fund the NGOs picking them up offshore like ferry services.
And still the European establishment refuses to secure the borders because migration was never simply about humanitarianism. It became an ideological project tied directly into the destruction of national identity, sovereignty, and social cohesion. Anyone objecting was immediately smeared as “far-right,” “racist,” or “extremist” while governments ignored the obvious reality visible to ordinary citizens walking through their own cities.

The 2015 migration crisis permanently changed Europe politically because populations realized their governments had completely lost control. Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Austria, the Netherlands, Britain, all saw nationalist and anti-establishment movements surge because the public understood something fundamental. Once a government cannot control its borders, it ceases functioning as a sovereign state.

The establishment constantly tries reducing this to economic statistics and labor shortages because admitting the truth would destroy the entire political narrative. Migration at this scale transforms societies structurally. It impacts housing, crime, wages, healthcare systems, education systems, cultural identity, and political stability simultaneously. Europeans increasingly see entire neighborhoods transformed beyond recognition while governments lecture them about tolerance from behind gated security barriers.

Greece is once again standing directly on the frontline while Brussels contributes little beyond speeches and empty promises. Greek islands and coastal regions were overwhelmed during the last crisis, yet nothing was actually fixed afterward. Europe merely buried the problem temporarily under media management and political intimidation. The infrastructure was never secured. The smuggling routes were never dismantled. The political divisions were never resolved.

Europe is amid a sovereign debt crisis, industrial decline, energy instability, collapsing birth rates, rising unemployment, housing shortages, and falling living standards all at the same time. Then governments intend to dump another massive migration wave directly into that environment and somehow expect social cohesion to survive. These people are completely detached from reality.
What makes this even more infuriating is the hypocrisy. The same elites demanding open borders for Europe surround themselves with private security, gated communities, and insulated political districts while ordinary citizens deal with the consequences. The political class never pays the price for its own policies.

Europe’s leadership still believes this crisis can be managed through censorship, propaganda, and media manipulation. It cannot. Once populations lose faith in the state’s ability to enforce borders and maintain order, political radicalization accelerates rapidly. History is filled with examples of governments collapsing because they ignored public anger until it was too late.
Half a million migrants waiting in Libya is not just another headline. It is another warning sign that Europe is heading deeper into fragmentation, instability, and political confrontation because the people running the continent are either too arrogant or too incompetent to reverse course.

The COVID Cover Up- Is The New Virus A Sequel?

The rumors are that both the EU and India are contemplating using this new virus for lockdowns to force the price of oil back down. Oil during COVID fell to $6.50. Is this the new agenda to deal with an energy crisis?

Market Talk – May 13, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 529.54 points or 0.84% to 63,272.11
• Shanghai increased 28.083 points or 0.67% to 4,242.572
• Hang Seng increased 40.53 points or 0.15% to 26,388.44
• ASX 200 decreased 40.30 points or -0.46% to 8,630.40
• SENSEX increased 49.74 points or 0.07% to 74,608.98
• Nifty50 increased 33.05 points or 0.14% to 23,412.60
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00217 or 0.30% to 0.72618
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00183 or -0.31% to 0.59347
• USDJPY increased 0.266 or 0.17% to 157.889
• USDCNY decreased 0.00411 or -0.06% to 6.78665
The above data was collected around 13:45 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold decreased 22.86 USD/t oz. or -0.48% to 4,692.27
•  Silver increased 1.428 USD/t. oz. or 1.65% to 87.974
The above data was collected around 13:47 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 28.05 points or 0.35% to 8,007.97
•  FTSE 100 increased 60.03 points or 0.58% to 10,325.35
•  DAX 30 increased 181.88 points or 0.76% to 24,136.81
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.00332 or -0.28% to 1.17051
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00274 or -0.20% to 1.35123
• USDCHF increased 0.00179 or 0.23% to 0.78245
The above data was collected around 13:55 EST.

AMERICAS:

US Markets:

  • DJIA declined by 67.36 points (-0.14%) to 49,693.2
  • S&P 500 advanced by 43.29 points (0.58%) to 7,444.25
  • NASDAQ advanced by 314.14 points (1.2%) to 26,402.344
  • Russell 2000 advanced by 1.102 points (0.04%) to 2,843.933

Canada:

  • TSX Composite declined by 249.3 points (-0.73%) to 34,041.43
  • TSX 60 declined by 16.04 points (-0.81%) to 1,969.07

Brazil:

  • Bovespa declined by 3,324.28 points (-1.84%) to 177,018.05
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 0.876 USD/BBL or -0.86% to 101.304
•  Brent decreased 1.905 USD/BBL or -1.77% to 105.865
•  Natural gas increased 0.0324 USD/MMBtu or 1.14% to 2.8754
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0698 USD/GAL -1.89% to 3.6279
•  Heating oil decreased 0.1832 USD/GAL or -4.41% to 3.9756
The above data was collected around 13:58 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Platinum (3.14%), Palladium (2.52%), Sugar (2.53%) and Aluminum (2.20%)
•  Top commodity losers: Cocoa (-3.74%), Oat (-2.03%), Heating Oil (-4.41%) and Gasoline (-1.89%)
The above data was collected around 14:08 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.5930% (+4.89bp), US 2’s 4.00% (-0.002%), US 10’s 4.4820% (+2.5bps); US 30’s 5.05 (+0.020%), Bunds 3.0917% (-0.49bp), France 3.7490% (+2.17bp), Italy 3.8240% (-4.66bp), Turkey 31.850% (+39bp), Greece 3.812% (+0.5bp), Portugal 3.460% (-2.5bp); Spain 3.509% (-3.1bp) and UK Gilts 5.0580% (-4.9bp)
The above data was collected around 14:14 EST.

Americans Drown in Debt While Washington Pretends the Economy Is Strong

Debt Burden

Americans now owe roughly 1.3 trillion dollars in credit card debt, and the average household carrying balances owes more than $11,000. People are no longer using credit cards for luxury spending. They are using them to survive.

A recent survey found that 42% of Americans believe they will carry credit card debt until they die. Think about what that means psychologically. Nearly half the country no longer sees debt as temporary. They see it as permanent. That is not a sign of prosperity. That is a sign of systemic economic decline.

This is exactly what happens when inflation outpaces wages for years while governments continue pretending the economy is healthy because stock indexes remain elevated. The average person does not live off the S&P 500. They live off monthly cash flow, and that cash flow has been destroyed by rising costs across every category, housing, food, insurance, transportation, and energy.

What is especially dangerous is that interest rates on many credit cards are now above 20%, with some consumers paying closer to 25–30% once penalties and fees are included. At those levels, debt compounds faster than many people can realistically pay it down. The system effectively traps consumers into permanent repayment cycles where they are covering interest rather than principal.

I have warned many times that once society shifts from productive borrowing into survival borrowing, the economy enters a completely different phase. Borrowing to build a business or buy productive assets creates future growth. Borrowing to buy groceries or pay utility bills simply delays the collapse temporarily while making the eventual outcome worse.

The broader numbers are staggering. Americans are simultaneously carrying roughly 1.7 trillion dollars in auto debt, over 12 trillion in mortgage debt, and trillions more in student loans and personal borrowing. Household debt across the board has reached historic highs.

This is why the middle class is disappearing. People are working simply to service debt obligations while the purchasing power of their income continues to decline. That creates enormous social frustration because the official narrative claims unemployment is low and the economy is expanding, yet people feel poorer every single year. Both things can technically exist at the same time if inflation and debt servicing consume real disposable income.

We are already seeing early signs of that stress emerge. Delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans have been rising sharply, especially among younger borrowers and lower-income households. Once defaults begin climbing broadly, banks tighten lending standards, which then reduces liquidity throughout the consumer economy.

The irony is that Washington itself is operating exactly the same way as the average overleveraged consumer. The federal government now runs trillion-dollar deficits routinely while interest payments on the national debt are approaching levels historically associated with sovereign debt crises. The population simply mirrors the behavior of the state.

This is why confidence becomes the key issue going forward. Once consumers lose faith in their financial future, spending patterns change. People stop planning long-term. They delay families, home purchases, investment, and entrepreneurship because survival overtakes expansion. That transition slowly erodes the entire economic structure from underneath.

Credit card debt at 1.3 trillion dollars is not just a statistic. It is evidence that millions of people can no longer maintain living standards through income alone.

Europe Is Helping Zelensky Rebuild His Human Supply for War

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European governments are now hiding behind the word “humanitarian” while quietly assisting in the demographic reconstruction of a country being consumed by war. Switzerland has joined the international coalition for the return of Ukrainian children, and politicians are presenting this as some noble moral mission detached from politics. That is nonsense. The timing exposes exactly what this is really about. Ukraine is running out of people.

Volodymyr Zelensky has turned Ukraine into a machine that now depends on trapping, pressuring, and reclaiming human beings to sustain the war. Millions fled after the conflict began, and Kyiv quickly responded by banning most military-age men from leaving the country. Men between 18 and 60 were effectively turned into state property overnight. Then the government escalated further by restricting passport renewals and consular services abroad, targeting Ukrainian men who escaped the draft.

The Western media continues portraying Zelensky as some symbol of democracy while ignoring the authoritarian reality unfolding behind the curtain. Videos have circulated for months showing Ukrainian conscription officers grabbing men off the streets, dragging them into vans, stopping them in gyms, restaurants, shopping malls, and subway stations. Families live in fear of draft notices while frontline troops openly complain about exhaustion, horrific casualties, and endless rotations into death zones.

Now Europe suddenly wants to “repatriate children” while Zelensky repeatedly signals that every person with Ukrainian blood belongs back in service to the state. Zelensky stated clearly that ALL Ukrainians must return to the motherland to die in his war.

“As regards young people who are currently not in Ukraine, but abroad. First of all, there are different groups of young people. I agree with you regarding those of conscription age who left Ukraine. They left temporarily but ended up staying away for years,” Zelensky stated, oblivious to the reason so many fled their homes. “And many of them left in breach of Ukrainian law. The relevant authorities in both countries should address this issue.

Most would renounce their citizenship if possible, but here’s the catch: Zelensky has made it ILLEGAL to renounce citizenship during wartime. A person must already have another citizenship approved or guaranteed before they can give it up, and the process requires presidential approval and can take up to a year or more. The unelected president will not permit anyone to renounce their citizenship, but the press frames it as widespread patriotism as only a handful have managed to escape Zelensky’s claws.

Ukraine’s demographic collapse is catastrophic. Millions of women and children fled to Europe. Hundreds of thousands of military-age men escaped before the borders tightened completely. Birth rates were already collapsing before the war began, and now entire regions have been emptied out. Ukraine is not just losing soldiers. It is losing its future population.

Wars eventually stop being about territory and become wars over demographics themselves. Ukraine cannot sustain endless erosion indefinitely because the country is bleeding population faster than it can replace it. Infrastructure can eventually be rebuilt. Human beings cannot.

This is why Zelensky’s government has become increasingly obsessed with repatriation, citizenship restrictions, and controlling Ukrainians abroad. Kyiv understands perfectly well that if too many refugees permanently integrate into Europe, Ukraine may never recover economically or militarily. The country risks becoming a hollow shell dependent entirely on foreign aid and military support.

At the same time, European governments are exposing their own hypocrisy completely. These are the same politicians who lecture the world endlessly about human rights and democracy while now openly discussing mechanisms to return Ukrainian men to a war zone. Poland and Lithuania have already signaled support for helping Kyiv reclaim draft-eligible citizens.

The truth is becoming uglier by the day. Ukraine’s government needs more bodies. Casualties continue mounting. Recruitment is increasingly unpopular. Frontline troops are exhausted. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers has steadily risen because younger men are either dead, injured, hiding, or gone.

The entire narrative surrounding this war has become deeply dishonest. Western leaders keep pretending Ukraine is defending democracy while supporting policies that trap men inside the country, restrict citizenship rights, pressure refugees, and increasingly militarize society at every level. That is not what free societies look like.

Zelensky keeps demanding more money, more missiles, more sanctions, more escalation, and now implicitly more people. Every solution proposed by Kyiv requires sacrificing another generation of Ukrainians while European elites sit safely behind podiums speaking about “values.”

The horrifying reality is that this war is consuming Ukraine’s population itself. The country is being hollowed out economically, demographically, and socially while politicians continue pretending victory is just one more weapons package away.

Taiwan Is Becoming the Trigger Point for a US-China Confrontation

The decision by Taiwan to deploy U.S.-supplied HIMARS missile systems to islands sitting directly off the coast of China is one of the most dangerous escalations we have seen in the region so far. These launch systems are reportedly being positioned less than 30 miles from the Chinese mainland in an effort to create what officials are calling a defensive “dead zone.”

The HIMARS systems are capable of launching ATACMS tactical missiles with ranges approaching 300 kilometers, meaning they could strike military bases, logistics hubs, naval staging areas, and infrastructure deep along China’s southeastern coast within minutes. Some reports estimate missiles launched from islands such as Dongyin could reach PLA targets in roughly seven minutes.

I have warned repeatedly that war with China is becoming one of the primary geopolitical concerns moving into this period ahead. The economic relationship between the United States and China has already deteriorated into technological warfare, sanctions, tariffs, and military positioning across the Pacific. Taiwan is becoming the focal point where all of those tensions converge.

The numbers alone show how rapidly this situation is escalating. Taiwan has already acquired 11 HIMARS launchers from the United States, with dozens more expected as part of broader military packages worth billions of dollars. Additional sales include hundreds of ATACMS missiles and guided rocket systems. At the same time, the U.S. continues pressuring Taiwan to increase military spending dramatically, with discussions around supplementary defense budgets exceeding 40 billion dollars.

What many fail to understand is that China views Taiwan not as a distant geopolitical issue, but as a core national sovereignty question. Every new weapons deployment near the mainland strengthens the nationalist position inside China and makes compromise politically impossible. Instead of reducing the risk of war, these deployments increase domestic pressure on Beijing to respond aggressively.

The United States believes creating heavily armed island chains throughout the Pacific will deter China militarily. But from Beijing’s perspective, this looks like encirclement. Historically, great powers do not tolerate hostile missile systems positioned directly off their coastline indefinitely. The United States itself nearly went to nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis over Soviet missiles positioned near Florida. Yet Washington now appears shocked that China reacts aggressively to missile deployments near its own territory.

China has already been conducting increasingly large military exercises around Taiwan involving warships, fighter aircraft, drones, and simulated blockades. PLA aircraft now enter Taiwan’s air defense zone almost continuously, and Chinese military drills have repeatedly simulated strikes on infrastructure and energy facilities.

At the same time, China is rapidly advancing military technology specifically geared toward a Taiwan conflict, including AI-powered drone swarms, amphibious assault preparation, and missile systems designed to overwhelm island defenses.

Meanwhile, the economic consequences are barely being discussed. Taiwan sits at the center of global semiconductor production and critical shipping routes. Any military conflict in the Taiwan Strait would send shockwaves through global supply chains far beyond anything seen during previous disruptions. The world economy is already under pressure from debt, inflation, and energy instability. A Pacific conflict involving China would magnify all of those problems simultaneously.

The more the United States militarizes Taiwan, the more China will feel compelled to respond militarily itself. Once both sides lock into that trajectory, reversing course becomes extremely difficult. History shows that major conflicts are often not started intentionally. They emerge gradually through escalation, positioning, and miscalculation until neither side can politically afford to back down.

Is Peace Really Possible in Middle East?

IRAN ECM

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your computer forecast the collapse of Russia. You even forecast a war would begin in Ukraine. Your computer did the same in Romania and Syria. You even forecast that this war with Iran would not be quick but drawn out. The word is you know the Middle East because you have been there for decades and you managed money for the counter-revolutionary movement in Iran. You have said you were called in by the central bank of Lebanon. They say you attended OPEC meetings and managed money for Kaddafi. In London I was told you taught the Arabs how to trade gold futures. Is any of that True? If so, why does major media avoid you? I listened to the 60 Mimutes interview of Netanyahu and they staid nobody has ever forecast these wars. They glassed over his claims that Iran was developing a nuke and could strike the US, but admitted they did not have a missile to go 6,000 miles. The one they did shoot at the US base 2,000 away was shot down.

If this is all true, then nobody is more qualified than you on the Middle East. You said in a recent interview you had offices in Dubai. Very strange how mainstream media does backflips to avoid you and your computer. What do you see for peace in the Middle East?

FB

FT June 27 1998 Rouble

ANSWER: Yes, the computer has done  fantastic job. It was the Russian collapse that cause all the Trouble, That’s when the CIA wanted the model. I offered to run any study they wanted, but they said they had to own it. That’s when I learned we do not live in a free society. You say no to the government, and they could care less about the constitution.

Contempt requitrement

Feb 7 2000 No list or order for contempt

They held me in civil contempt without any charges or even an order. You are supposed to have a clear directive do this or you go to jail.  The judge did whatever the government wanted and publicly was shocked when he found out they never produce such an order. Legally, he should have released me, but did not. I was NEVER given any order to make sure I could never comply. The media never reported the truth, especially Bloomberg.

Then when the bank pled guilty and was given a deal return all the money they stole and nobody would go to jail, so there were no remaining victims. In the end, I never had any restitution. But then the government outright lied, violated my civil rights openly in front of the world and the press remained silent. They then claimed there was another fraud decades before and they kept me in contempt for another 5 years admitting there was no description of such a crime, but kept me in jail with not even a Theory.

Contempt No Description of fraud 1

I believe mainstream media was part of the scam and kept up the fake news to cover up the Neocons/Bankers failed attempt to pull off a regime change in Russia, which is why I believe Hillary concocted the whole RussiaGate fake news.

Lebanon_1985 WEC

As far as the other issues, yes I advised the counter-revolutionary movement in Iran for they were trading futures to buy arms to overthrow the Ayatollah back then. Yes, it was the central bank of Lebanon that asked us to make a model on their currency and that opened the door where I came to discover how the computer was forecasting war. As far as attended OPEC meetings, I was being put on speakerbox not actually attending. Yes I did manage money for Kaddafi, twice, but unknowingly.

Well you must be talking to people who have been around for a long time in London. Yes, I taught the Arabs how to trade gold futures to make interest when they could not earn interest religiously. I gave the liquidity to get the gold futures off the ground. We were buying gold and then selling it forward, which in reality is the interest for carrying the trade. But it was not outright interest so religiously it worked. I restructured Middle East banks in similar ways.

Turkish Lira 1985

One of my more creative endeavors was the furst synthetic natural hedge I had to manufacture. I was called in by a major Middle East Bank who hired a top German banker to run the bank. The board was religious and said that they should open a branch in Turkey. The Turkish lira was in a steep bear market and they had to put up $10 million in escrow for one year until the license would be granted. They would have lost 90% of the money. The Turkish lira was not tradable in cash or futures. That’s why they called me in. I had to create a synthetic natural hedge to map the expected decline of the lira. I created a basket of other instrument to create a synthetic natural hedge – the first ever such instrument created.

I did ny first billion deal in 1982 with a Saudi. As my client put it, we were dealing in billions when Goldman was still in diapers. That’s also when the bankers were always afraid of me.

Yes, I too listened to the 60 Mimutes interview of Netanyahu. They indeed glossed over his claims that Iran was a threat to the USA.

iranian Rial M Array 4 12 26

The computer is showing that we may have a serious change in the politics in Iran come Jan/Feb 2027. Nonetheless, we still see that something will shift going into June after Trump gets back from China.

AP 4 27 2000 Closed Court

Yes the media does backflips because they cannot report the truth about what took place in my case and the failed regime change without also admitted that they dropped the ball intentionally or were incompetent. A former Executive VP of one of the NY major newspapers tol me when the judge threw the press out in April 2000, they knew I was innocent. But he explained the government calls you and asks for a “favor” spin a story this way or kill it. If you do not, they come after you for anything from taxes to whatever else they make up. That is why it may seem very strange how mainstream avoids our computer which is the only AI system in the world with nearly a 50 year track record.

As far as peace in the Middle East or even Ukraine, in both cases you are looking at deep seated hatreds on both sides. That is not negotiable with any permanent outcome. My sources have said that Iran still retains about 70% of its missile stockpile from before the war.

Market Talk – May 12, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 324.69 points or 0.52% to 62,742.57
• Shanghai decreased 10.532 points or -0.25% to 4,214.489
• Hang Seng decreased 58.93 points or -0.22% to 26,347.91
• ASX 200 decreased 31.10 points or -0.36% to 8,670.70
• SENSEX decreased 1,456.04 points or -1.92% to 74,559.24
• Nifty50 decreased 436.30 points or -1.83% to 23,379.55
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00341 or -0.47% to 0.72154
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00278 or -0.47% to 0.59362
• USDJPY increased 0.552 or 0.35% to 157.739
• USDCNY increased 0.00366 or 0.05% to 6.79546
The above data was collected around 12:53 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold decreased 65.11 USD/t oz. or -1.37% to 4,670.61
•  Silver decreased 1.727 USD/t. oz. or -2.01% to 84.363
The above data was collected around 12:55 EST
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
•  CAC 40 decreased 76.46 points or -0.95% to 7,979.92
•  FTSE 100 decreased 4.11 points or -0.04% to 10,265.32
•  DAX 30 decreased 395.35 points or -1.62% to 23,954.93
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.00554 or -0.47% to 1.17279
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00927 or -0.68% to 1.35179
• USDCHF increased 0.004 or 0.51% to 0.78199
The above data was collected around 12:59 EST.

AMERICAS:

US Markets:

  • DJIA advanced by 56.09 points (0.11%) to 49,760.56
  • S&P 500 declined by 11.88 points (-0.16%) to 7,400.96
  • NASDAQ declined by 185.922 points (-0.71%) to 26,088.203
  • Russell 2000 declined by 27.809 points (-0.97%) to 2,842.831

Canada:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 151.85 points (0.44%) to 34,290.73
  • TSX 60 advanced by 7.87 points (0.4%) to 1,985.11

Brazil:

  • Bovespa declined by 1,566.54 points (-0.86%) to 180,342.33
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•   Crude Oil increased 3.491 USD/BBL or 3.56% to 101.561
•  Brent increased 3.047 USD/BBL or 2.92% to 107.257
•  Natural gas decreased 0.1 USD/MMBtu or -3.44% to 2.8100
•  Gasoline increased 0.0779 USD/GAL 2.16% to 3.6777
•  Heating oil increased 0.1411 USD/GAL or 3.56% to 4.1097
The above data was collected around 13:02 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Crude Oil (3.56%), Heating Oil (3.56%), Wheat (6.90%) and Orange Juice (4.74%)
•  Top commodity losers: Natural Gas (-3.44%), Oat (-2.66%), Silicon (-3.79%) and Methanol (-3.38%)
The above data was collected around 13:11 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.5440% (+1.91bp), US 2’s 4.00% (+0.036%), US 10’s 4.4600% (+4.7bps); US 30’s 5.02 (+0.033%), Bunds 3.1010% (+5.77bp), France 3.7390% (+7.5bp), Italy 3.8730% (+9.18bp), Turkey 34.320% (+48bp), Greece 3.804% (+7bp), Portugal 3.487% (+7.8bp); Spain 3.531% (+5.8bp) and UK Gilts 5.1110% (+9.3bp)
The above data was collected around 13:14 EST.