Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Earlier this year, as the energy crisis sent gasoline prices soaring, Washington began waiving the very fuel regulations it had insisted were necessary. The government relaxed summer-blend requirements, expanded the ability to sell ethanol blends, and eventually acknowledged that the country faced “extreme and unusual” fuel supply circumstances. Now diesel has surged to around $6.50 per gallon, and suddenly Washington is scrambling again, this time allowing broader use of dyed diesel that is normally restricted to farms, construction equipment, and other off-road uses.

The EPA acknowledged in August that U.S. operable refining capacity was about 800,000 barrels per day LOWER than in January 2020. Refinery utilization ran above 96%, meaning there was very little spare capacity when something went wrong.

Diesel is far more economically dangerous than expensive gasoline because it is embedded in virtually everything you buy. The consumer may never personally purchase a gallon of diesel, but he pays for it every time something has to be grown, manufactured or transported.

There is already confusion over what dyed diesel actually means. The red dye itself is not some inferior fuel that will suddenly destroy a diesel engine; it is primarily a marker used so authorities can identify fuel that was sold without the highway taxes normally imposed on road diesel. If the underlying fuel meets the same ultra-low-sulfur specifications, the dye itself is not the problem. If government can suddenly waive restrictions when diesel becomes scarce and expensive, how much of the barrier was absolutely necessary in the first place, and how much was simply another layer of taxation and regulation that consumers were forced to pay for when energy was plentiful?

Now we have “blue diesel,” as if another government classification somehow creates more fuel. Red, blue, taxed, untaxed, renewable, off-road, the bureaucracy has turned diesel into a regulatory maze. When an energy crisis hits, they suddenly waive their own rules because trucks still have to move and farms still have to operate. You cannot regulate energy into existence. You either have the fuel or you don’t.

That is why this feeds directly into stagflation. A trucking company paying dramatically more for fuel does not simply absorb that cost forever. Neither does the warehouse, construction company, farmer, or distributor. Those costs work their way through the economy until they eventually appear in groceries, building materials, deliveries and virtually everything else consumers purchase. Meanwhile, businesses facing higher transportation and financing costs begin postponing investment and hiring.

Washington’s answer is now to change the rules again. President Trump has expanded access to dyed diesel and allowed federal excise taxes on its highway use to be deferred through the end of the year. Several states had already begun relaxing restrictions, suspending fuel taxes or changing transportation regulations in an effort to get more fuel into the system. The G7 has also announced plans to release 100 million barrels of diesel.

The government even temporarily relaxed hours-of-service restrictions for fuel truck drivers in September, allowing them to operate longer in an effort to move gasoline and diesel through the system faster. Think about what that tells you. The government is now dismantling regulations one by one because the energy infrastructure does not have enough slack to withstand geopolitical disruption.

There is also something almost comical about watching government waive its own regulations whenever the consequences become unbearable. If these rules can suddenly be suspended because fuel is too expensive, then perhaps someone should ask how much those regulations were costing consumers before the emergency. Government imposes the cost when energy is plentiful, then takes credit for temporarily removing part of that cost when the system begins breaking down.

The energy crisis is exposing something far larger than the price displayed outside the gas station. America has lost refining capacity while geopolitical instability is increasing and governments continue assuming that regulation can substitute for production. It cannot. You can manipulate taxes, blending requirements and trucking rules all you want, but eventually somebody has to produce the fuel.

First, Washington watered down the gasoline regulations because the system was under stress. Now it is scrambling to find diesel wherever it can while prices sit near record levels. The politicians can change the rules overnight, but they cannot repeal supply and demand, and every time they are forced to abandon their own policies in an emergency they are admitting what the free market has been telling them all along: you cannot regulate scarcity away.

Germany’s own intelligence service is now warning that the confrontation with Russia is entering a far more dangerous phase. Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s BND foreign intelligence service, told parliament on October 5 that Germany risks becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia. He described what is taking place across Europe as a Russian “shadow war” that has entered a “new, more dangerous dimension.”

October 5, on that very date, Germany’s intelligence chief is warning that the confrontation with Russia is moving beyond Ukraine. Germany points to drones, cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage and attacks against infrastructure throughout Europe. German authorities have accused Russia of involvement in an attempted drone attack against a Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig airport. Moscow denies conducting such a campaign and insists it has no intention of attacking NATO.

Jäger declared that “Russia is our most dangerous adversary.” He said the danger of attacks against German targets remains “real and imminent” and accused Moscow of testing Germany to see how far it can push. Perhaps most alarming was his warning about what comes next: “Russia could engage in low-intensity military activities, particularly in the Baltic states.” Germany is openly talking about a conflict that could creep across NATO’s borders without beginning with some formal declaration of war.

What concerns me most is that Jäger openly discussed the possibility of Russia conducting limited operations against the Baltic states to test NATO. Not necessarily thousands of tanks rolling across a border, but something deliberately ambiguous enough to determine whether NATO actually has the political courage to respond. What constitutes an attack today? A drone entering NATO airspace? A commercial vessel destroyed in the Baltic? The lines that once separated war from peace have become dangerously blurred.

Germany’s military is issuing much the same warning. Major General Christian Freuding, who oversees Germany’s support for Ukraine, has warned against assuming Europe has years before a confrontation with Russia. He said the question of when Russia might be capable of attacking NATO is becoming almost irrelevant because Moscow already possesses forces and weapons that could be used against the alliance today. “Russia already has the capabilities to attack NATO territory now,” Freuding warned. That does not mean Germany believes Putin is preparing to invade tomorrow, but this constant rhetoric matters. German intelligence warns of a shadow war, its generals say Russia can attack NATO now, and Berlin is simultaneously rearming at a pace not seen in generations. The danger is that Europe is no longer preparing for some theoretical war in 2029. Its own military leadership is telling the public that the confrontation could come much sooner.

Europe helped create this situation by pretending it could wage an unlimited proxy war against a nuclear power while keeping everything neatly contained inside Ukraine. Germany supplies weapons to Kyiv and has become one of Ukraine’s largest supporters. Poland is rapidly militarizing. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. Lithuania sits beside Kaliningrad and is moving to remove its prohibition on nuclear weapons. Russia responds by strengthening its own defenses, and Europe then points to that response as evidence that Moscow is preparing to attack.

The Baltic is becoming perhaps the most dangerous pressure point. Russia has already warned that any attempt to attack or isolate Kaliningrad could produce a response involving nuclear weapons. Jäger is now warning NATO not to simply wait for 2029, the timeframe often discussed for when Russia could become capable of a larger confrontation with the alliance. Something smaller could happen first.

The War Cycle does not mean someone declares World War III on a particular day. It marks periods when geopolitical pressure intensifies and governments become increasingly aggressive. Europe says it is preparing for war to prevent war. Russia says precisely the same thing. Eventually, with this many weapons, drones, troops and intelligence operations rubbing against one another, all it takes is one mistake to set off something nobody can control. Germany’s intelligence chief is effectively admitting we are getting dangerously close to that point.

We have been watching October 5 on the War Cycle, and what has unfolded around that date deserves attention. This is no longer simply Russia and Ukraine trading artillery across a battlefield. The geographical footprint of this war is expanding, commercial shipping is being hit in the Black Sea, NATO aircraft are being scrambled, air defense is being moved closer to the front, and Europe is openly discussing nuclear deterrence. Nobody needs to invent World War III or exaggerate every drone that crosses a radar screen. What matters is the trend, and the trend is moving in precisely the wrong direction.

On October 5, a commercial vessel caught fire and sank outside Romanian territorial waters after leaving the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Two people died. Zelensky attributed the event to “a horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel,” although Romanian authorities did not confirm the cause. Then on October 6, two more commercial vessels were attacked by drones inside Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. One sank and another caught fire, forcing the evacuation of 18 crew members, two of whom were seriously injured. Bulgaria has NOT established where those drones came from. These attacks cannot honestly be called deliberate Russian attacks on NATO territory based on the evidence presently available. Nevertheless, civilian shipping is now being dragged directly into the military confrontation around NATO’s Black Sea flank.

“This is an unacceptable attack in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. It is a blatant violation of international law and maritime law,” Prime Minister Rumen Radev said.

At the same time, NATO aircraft are being forced into action. Two Spanish F-18s stationed in Romania under NATO command were scrambled after radar detected aerial targets operating in Ukrainian airspace close to the Romanian border. They did not enter Romanian airspace and there was no interception, but Romanian authorities issued warnings to civilians because of the danger of falling objects. These incidents are becoming routine, and that is precisely the problem. Wars expand through mistakes, miscalculations, and reactions to events that politicians insist nobody intended.

Ukraine has meanwhile launched an extraordinary drone assault deep into Russia. Russian authorities claim nearly 900 Ukrainian drones were intercepted overnight across Russia, occupied Crimea, and the Sea of Azov. Moscow’s mayor said 650 drones were directed toward the capital region overnight, followed by dozens more during the day. Two people were killed, while reports emerged that a major fuel installation in the Moscow region was burning. The fuel strike has not been independently confirmed. Zelensky is now warning that intelligence indicates Russia is preparing a massive retaliatory aerial attack. Each side responds to the last attack with something larger, and eventually somebody crosses a line that cannot be uncrossed.

Sweden announced that it will send Patriot air-defense systems and roughly 100 troops to Poland to protect the Rzeszow logistics hub, the primary artery through which Western military aid reaches Ukraine. Lithuania has now advanced a constitutional amendment that would remove its prohibition against nuclear weapons and foreign military bases. Lithuania borders both Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. This does NOT mean American nuclear weapons are suddenly being stationed in Lithuania, and another parliamentary vote is required. But Moscow has already warned that moving NATO military infrastructure and potentially nuclear weapons closer to Russia will be regarded as escalation.

Then France test-fired its new M51.3 submarine-launched ballistic missile on October 6. The missile carried no nuclear warhead, and the test was part of the certification of France’s strategic deterrent, so this should not be falsely portrayed as France preparing to attack Russia. Europe is increasingly talking about deterrence, nuclear capability, military readiness, and preparing populations for confrontation rather than negotiating an end to this madness.

Wars do not require somebody sitting in a room deciding that Tuesday morning would be a wonderful time to start World War III. The First World War emerged from alliances and mobilizations that transformed a regional crisis into a continental catastrophe. Politicians create commitments they believe will deter the other side, the other side responds with commitments of its own, and eventually everyone becomes trapped by the very deterrence system they created.

There is much concern over recent developments in the Black Sea. Commercial shipping cannot continually be attacked without consequences. Romania and Bulgaria are NATO members. Poland is becoming increasingly fortified as the principal logistics corridor supporting Ukraine. Lithuania is reconsidering restrictions on nuclear deterrence. Europe is pulling every move to prepare for war.

The War Cycle was never about predicting that politicians would formally declare World War III on a particular day. Cycles identify periods when geopolitical pressure and the probability of conflict rise. What has emerged around October 5 is therefore worth watching very closely. We have commercial vessels sinking, an unprecedented drone assault aimed deep into Russia, NATO fighters launching in response to approaching aerial targets, Patriot batteries moving into Poland, Lithuania opening the door to expanded NATO deterrence, and Russia warning that the continued movement of Western military infrastructure toward its borders will have consequences.

Watch the Black Sea. Watch Poland and Lithuania. And above all, watch what Russia does in response to this enormous Ukrainian drone attack. If the next retaliation spills deliberately onto NATO territory or kills NATO personnel, we will have moved into an entirely different phase of this war.

Merz does not care about the fate of Germany or its people. Here we are on precisely the week of October 5th and Merz is saying that Russia staged some armed attack on Leipzig airport. He is publicly stating that Germany is effectively at war with Russia. The EU is crumbling and the AfD has beaten Merz to a pulp, so its now time to go out with a bang and declare war has already begun.

Here is Merz declaring that Brussels is indeed very concerned about the rise of of what they call far-right parties that are anti-EU with the common thread being their migrant policies. The nature of that concern has also now shifted significantly. The current anxiety in EU institutions is not just about the imminent “exit” threat, but also I hear they fear a growing strategic objective by these parties to weaken and obstruct the EU from the inside.

They don’t worry the exit scenario, since they are pros at manipulating elections as they did in Italy, UK, Hungary and Romania or use the courts to block separatists as in Barcelona. They are now also examining the draft strategy document from AfD lawmakers, which shifts away from calling for an immediate German withdrawal from the EU and eurozone. Instead, it proposes prioritizing the reform of the EU into a “union of sovereign nations,” and advocates for a membership referendum only if those reforms fail. In other words – take back power like over migration.

This shift is partly pragmatic. The AfD is currently isolated in the European Parliament, and more moderate right-wing parties, like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, have openly criticized the AfD’s “anti-European” stance. Dropping the exit demand makes the AfD a more palatable ally for these larger far-right groups.

This strategic change creates a more difficult problem for the EU than a simple exit campaign that they can fight with rigged elections. Here, a referendum requires a party to convince a majority to take a radical step. In contrast, internal disruption only requires enough power to block, dilute, and redirect policy from within the system. The EU’s existing tools, which were designed to reassure citizens about the benefits of membership, are ill-suited to counter this kind of internal gridlock. This is why they rigged both the Romanian and Hungarian elections.

Parties like the AfD and Hungary’s Fidesz can exploit unanimity rules to veto EU-wide decisions. For example, Hungary has blocked crucial sanctions and loans for Ukraine, and the far-right Patriots for Europe group has worked to dilute the Green Deal and the Migration Pact. This dysfunction then becomes campaign material for these parties, who position themselves as defenders of national interests against a “paralyzed” Brussels. This was why the Hungarian government has repeatedly accused Ukraine of interfering in its elections to remove Orban. Sources in Washington reveal that Ukraine is also interfering in US elections funding the opposition of anyone in Congress who is against sending money to Ukraine. Israel has been doing the same.

The European Commission is aware of the broader threat posed by anti-Brussels movement. Its response has focused on security and rule of law, rather than direct political confrontation. Through Europol and the EU Knowledge Hub, the Commission is coordinating cross-border efforts to combat anti-EU protests and sharing information on proscribed groups.

The Commission has proposed reforms to its next long-term budget that would make EU funding conditional on member states respecting the rule of law. This is designed to impose financial costs on governments allowing the people to vote for organizations like the Afd. This is a very anti-democratic position but this is what governments do to retain power.

In short, Brussels’ concern is focused on a more subtle and persistent threat of a coordinated effort by these anti-EU parties to hollow out the EU’s ability to function from within its own institutions.

This is why the EU faces a rising threat that will dissolve the centralized government returning sovereignty to individual member states, or start World War III with Russia not just as a distraction, but to forge a unity bond with the classic rally around the flag.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) was trying to create the one-world government some call globalization, where the pandemic some believed would create the unity to create this globalization. However, the manufactured pandemic actually accelerated pre-existing trends toward deglobalization, nationalism, and the “balkanization” of technology. WEF discussions acknowledged that globalization was “already under attack before COVID” and that the pandemic posed new questions about nationalism that were exactly opposite of the expected unity. The WEF’s stated concern was that a retreat from globalization and that multilateralism damaged their efforts to create their communistic form of government where you own nothing and you’ll be happy.

Here war is being used to create the UNITY with the Rally around the flag in an effort to defeat the agenda of AfD and others and in the process solidify the EU as a permanent European federal government.

I warned from the start when Zelensky pretended to be elected, that this was the man the Neocons hand-selected to start World War III. At every possible oportunity, he has been desperately creating false flags, lying, and promoting even nuclear war where NATO should nuke Russia before Russia nukes Europe. Zelensky is claiming a commercial ship was sunk by Russia in NATO waters and therefore he wants the world to destroy Russia now. Any world leader you agrees with this nut-job, belongs in the same padded cell with him for life imprisonment. That is far worse than the death penalty.

This very week of October 5th that the computer has been targeting for geopolitical tension to begin to rise especially involving Russia, a commercial ship was sunk Tuesday the 6th after an apparent coordinated air-and-sea drone attack off NATO member Bulgaria coast, according to Zelensky. Of course, he blamed Russia and is insisting Moscow is preparing a “massive strike.” He advocates World War III with every breath he takes. The world should be destroyed all for he personal ethnic hatred of Russians.

Zelensky claims that a second vessel was also attacked inside Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone He is insisting that Russia is preparing a dangerous escalation and possible “larger invasion posture.” Sources say he is advocating an immediate NATO attack to wipe out Moscow.

I cannot express how dangerous this guy is and the press keep cheering World War III. The only solace is that Ukraine will be destroyed and Zelensky will not survive to count his millions/billions. I strongly urge to get out of any investment whatsoever that has anything to do with Ukraine. NATO and the EU are desperate for war with the rising anti-war positions in Germany and France. They are ratcheting up tensions hoping for Russia to make the first move for if the trend in motion succeeds, then war will be off the table. They are trying so hard to beat the war drums before they lose power.

Professor Sergey Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and academic supervisor at the School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow, has publicly come out now and stated that as tensions with NATO rise, Russia MUST reinforce nuclear deterrence and remain ready to use its arsenal only as a last resort.

Our ECM model on this war directly turned in June 2026 warning that this would become more aggressive. In June 2026, the most significant event regarding Ukraine was a major escalation in Russian aerial attacks in response to Zelensky attacking inside Russia, which included a massive strike on Kyiv that damaged a UNESCO World Heritage site, followed by a European Council summit where EU leaders met with President Zelensky to discuss continued support.

The attack came two days after our model turned on the 13th. It was on June 15, 2026, when Russia launched one of its largest missile and drone bombardments of the war against multiple Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. This was when in response to the ongoing war, EU leaders gathered in Brussels for a two-day European Council summit on June 18-19, 2026, with President Zelensky attending in person. Europe went all in for world war III demonstrating that they never learned anything from World Wars I and II. No European leader is interested in peace and have no problem seeing Europe destory a third time.

The next critical turning point will be July 2027 following another Panic Cycle in May next year. We see this escalating into January and our Panic Cycle in Russia will be June of 2027. The computer has shown Ukraine flatlining. It does not appear to survive beyond the Pi target 2029-2030.

France is burning again, and at some point we have to stop pretending this is normal. As many as 500 high schools are closed or partially closed because the government cannot guarantee their security. Twenty-four schools have reportedly been burned or ransacked and 78 education employees injured. In Paris, hooded individuals piled combustible material against the entrance of a school and set it on fire. When masked thugs are setting schools on fire, you are watching the breakdown of civil society.

The radical left has helped turn legitimate frustration into another excuse for confrontation with the state. What began with complaints about teachers and education spread through disadvantaged Paris suburbs before exploding into a nationwide movement, with authorities saying violent groups infiltrated demonstrations. This is the same political sickness we keep seeing across Europe: every grievance becomes justification for occupying something, smashing something, burning something, or attacking the police, while politicians are terrified to call it what it is because they have spent years romanticizing radicalism whenever it serves their political interests.

Then there is the immigration crisis that the French establishment has spent decades refusing to discuss honestly. France permitted large-scale immigration while failing miserably at integration in parts of the country. It allowed segregated suburbs to develop where poverty, unemployment, crime, alienation and distrust of the state became entrenched across generations. Immigration does not make someone violent, and the government has not established that migrants are responsible for all these attacks, but denying the enormous integration crisis surrounding many French banlieues has become absurd. You cannot import people indefinitely without ensuring they become part of the society they are entering and then act surprised when parallel communities emerge.

France has already seen where this road leads. The 2005 riots spread across the country as thousands of vehicles were burned and public buildings attacked. The 2023 riots produced another wave of arson, looting and destruction after the police killing of Nahel Merzouk. Now we are watching schools burned and hundreds more closed because authorities fear additional violence. How many times does the same country have to erupt before politicians admit there is a structural problem?

France is also running directly into the financial wall. The country has one of Europe’s largest welfare states, persistent deficits, enormous public debt, and rising borrowing costs. Yet every social failure produces demands for still more government spending. More teachers, more housing, more welfare, more policing, more subsidies, more integration programs and more reconstruction after the next riot. Nobody ever asks where the money comes from because the political class has spent generations pretending debt is free.

This is where uncontrolled immigration and sovereign debt eventually collide. Every additional person requires housing, schools, healthcare, transportation and infrastructure. A successful immigration policy expands the productive economy alongside the population and integrates newcomers into the nation. A failed policy increases demands on systems that are already strained while refusing to acknowledge capacity limits. France chose ideology over arithmetic and is now discovering that calling critics names does not create another classroom, apartment or hospital bed.

The radical left will blame capitalism, inequality, the police, austerity or whatever slogan is fashionable this week, but burning schools will not produce another teacher. Destroying public property will not improve education. Setting fire to the institutions your own community depends upon is not resistance. It is self-destruction.

Now children cannot even go to school because these idiots think they have some God given right to burn, smash and destroy an entire community whenever they are angry. They torch a school, destroy a bus stop, smash a storefront or burn somebody’s car and somehow imagine they have punished “the government.” The government does not reach into its own pocket and clean up the mess. The TAXPAYER does. The shopkeeper whose windows were smashed pays. The worker whose car was burned pays. The parents whose children are sitting at home because their school is closed pay. Then the same fools who destroyed their own neighborhoods complain that there are not enough teachers, services, or opportunities, as if money magically falls from the sky to rebuild everything they just burned. This is not protest and it is not some noble rebellion against the system. It is sheer stupidity, and the innocent people trying to work, raise families and send their children to school are being forced to pay for it.

Chile is back in the streets, and this is how it always begins. More than 20,000 students, teachers, workers and union members marched through Santiago against President José Antonio Kast’s 2027 budget. Then came the rocks, bottles, tear gas, arrests, and water cannons. Everyone will argue about who threw what first and whether the police overreacted, but they are missing the point. The government created a system of promises, the economy can no longer comfortably carry all of them, and now people are furious because politicians suddenly discovered arithmetic.

Chile’s unemployment rate is already 9.6%, and Kast came into office promising to cut the fat from government. His proposed budget increases overall spending by only 1.5%, the smallest expansion in two decades outside the post-COVID adjustment. His government reviewed 632 programs across 23 ministries and effectively asked a question that should have been asked decades ago: what are taxpayers actually getting for this money? Naturally, everyone receiving the money suddenly believes civilization will collapse if they remove one peso.

This is the insanity of government. Politicians create programs when times are good because buying votes with somebody else’s money is the easiest profession on earth. They hand out benefits, subsidies and promises without ever asking how they will be financed 10 or 20 years later. Eventually those temporary political gifts become permanent RIGHTS. Then somebody finally looks at the books and realizes the numbers do not work, and suddenly there are 20,000 people marching through the capital demanding that the money continue flowing.

Kast has already backed away from some of the reductions and insists free higher education for more than 600,000 students will remain. The government says the structural education budget is not being destroyed. It almost does not matter anymore because confidence is the real issue. The students do not trust the government, the government does not trust the previous spending structure, and everybody believes somebody else should pay the bill.

Chile should know where this road leads because it lived through 2019. That explosion supposedly began over a small increase in Santiago metro fares. It was never really about the metro fare. That was merely the match tossed onto years of accumulated frustration over pensions, wages, education, inequality, and the cost of living. Once the psychology changed, people were not arguing about thirty pesos anymore. They were burning metro stations.

This is what the academics never understand about civil unrest. They sit there looking for some neat mathematical explanation after everything is already on fire. People tolerate deteriorating conditions for years until suddenly they don’t. One tax, one price increase, one spending cut, one police incident or one stupid statement from some politician becomes the spark, and everyone acts surprised when decades of resentment explode at once.

Politicians created this mess because they NEVER tell people the truth when they make these promises. They do not say, “We can give you this benefit today, but there may not be enough money to maintain it forever.” They pretend government possesses some magical bottomless bank account. Then the economy turns, unemployment rises, tax revenues disappoint, debt costs increase, and suddenly the same government tells everyone sacrifices must be made.

Sacrifices by whom?

Certainly not the political class. The people are always told they must accept less, pay more taxes, retire later, surrender another subsidy, or watch another public service deteriorate. That is when confidence begins to crack because people realize government spent the money years ago and left them with the bill.

The civil unrest we are seeing around the world is not occurring in a vacuum. Governments are running into fiscal constraints at precisely the same time younger generations are struggling with housing, employment and the cost of living. These people are being handed debts they did not create and promises governments can no longer afford to honor.

The Economic Confidence Model is about precisely this transition in human behavior. Civil unrest does not begin because somebody publishes a bad GDP number. It begins when enough people finally conclude that the people running the system have absolutely no idea what they are doing. Once that confidence breaks, every tax increase, spending cut and political decision becomes another potential match.

Chile is back in the streets because government once again made promises without considering tomorrow. Now tomorrow has arrived, the arithmetic no longer works, and politicians are discovering that taking away what government once handed out is far more dangerous than giving it away in the first place. This is how political systems begin to fracture, not because everyone suddenly becomes a revolutionary, but because the people finally realize the promises were written by politicians who never intended to be around when the bill came due.

QUESTION: I just watched Genius on Albert Einstein. Beyond the fact that I can see why people compare you to him—driven by your research and curiosity rather than money, which is also why you don’t sell advertising or flood inboxes with 50 solicitation emails a day—what also struck me was how obsessed J. Edgar Hoover was with bringing Einstein down. He even carried out illegal searches and used what he found to manipulate both judges and the press against him. They manipulated the press during COVID too. Is there any way to ever get an honest government?

KL

ANSWER: Historians and researchers who have examined the declassified FBI files describe J. Edgar Hoover’s campaign against Albert Einstein as a personal vendetta or a “secret war” fueled by ideological suspicion. While there’s no evidence of a personal slight between the two men, Hoover’s deep distrust of Einstein’s politics drove a two-decade effort to discredit him.

Hoover used the FBI for his personal para noia. He maintained a massive file on Einstein from his arrival in the U.S. in 1933 until his death in 1955, eventually reaching over 1,400 pages. Hoover personally ordered investigations and the Bureau employed aggressive tactics, including tapping his phone, opening his mail, and searching his trash.

Hoover’s obsession was rooted in Einstein’s outspoken activism against war, not just his science. The FBI director labeled him an “extreme radical” and Hoover suspected him of being a communist or even a Soviet spy as he also maintained files of just about every member of Congress and presidents. This suspicion was driven by Einstein’s public stances against racism, nationalism, and nuclear weapons, as well as his friendships with controversial figures like Paul Robeson.

Hoover was desperate to deport or discredit him. Hoover’s personal war against Einstein was extremely intense and was revealed by its objectives. Hoover tried for years to link Einstein to a Soviet espionage ring, hoping to have him arrested or deported. In 1950, he launched an intensified effort to gather “derogatory information” specifically to discredit Einstein at all costs where he acted no different than a communist state he pretended to hate so much. Hoover ignored all rights of Einstein and ignored all constitution restraints on his power.

The allegations the Hoover pursued were often absurd, including claims that Einstein was plotting to kidnap the Lindbergh baby, had invented a “death ray,” or was the mastermind of a Communist plot to take over Hollywood. Ultimately, Hoover failed to prove any of these claims or limit Einstein’s public influence during his lifetime.

I was personally told years ago by member of Congress that he would assemble a file on a politician, walk into his office, say this is what they found, your opponent could use this. He would claim to bury it and then you owed him a favor.

This is the prosecutor I faced who kept me in contempt desperate to find anything. They knew I advised on many takeovers and investigated even my family assuming I had to have some hidden account somewhere for inside trading. His #2, Brian Code, wanted to go after the bank, but someone did not let him. He told my lawyer “we know he didn’t take anything.” At that reverse proffer, Owens told me he would not drop any changes, and just said you are “one smart” SOB because they could find anything.

They never got it. When you have offices arpund the world, you have to comply with the laws around the world. The lawyer said plainly, the only way I could possibly comply worldwide was I could not even have a stock account. I was paid big bucks BECAUSE I had no conflict of interest. People in such positions seem to have to assume everyone is guilty and rotten to the core just so they can look at themselves in the mirror and pretend they are defending society. I have seen this pattern not just in my case, but so many.

There should be an independent panel of PRIVATE lawyers that rotate. No indictment should ever be allowed to be the product of a single prosecutor. Their personal ego and career get wrapped up it. They all look to take down a famous person like Rudy Guiliani took down John Gotti of the NY Mafia and used that to become Mayor. Just look at how many politicians were former prosecutors right down to Christopher James Christie the governor of New Jersey.  Until the authority to craft a charge against anyone is put before an independent panel, there will never be true honest government.

The Rule of Law is everything. Without it, there can be no investment and no economy.

We have to start there or all is lost.

Economists keep pointing to consumer spending as proof that the American economy remains strong. Americans spent 0.9% more in August, and naturally this is being celebrated as the resilient American consumer. But real disposable income did not increase AT ALL, while the personal savings rate fell to just 4.1%. Americans are spending more while their inflation-adjusted income is going nowhere and savings are being depleted to maintain their standard of living.

The cost-of-living crisis is showing up in the numbers. Consumer spending can rise during inflation simply because everything costs more. If your grocery bill rises from $150 to $200, you increased consumer spending by 33%, but you did not become wealthier or eat 33% more food. You simply handed over more dollars for the same necessities.

Personal consumption expenditures increased by $190.8 billion in August while personal income increased only $66.6 billion. Real consumer spending rose 0.6%, but real disposable income was flat. You can maintain that imbalance temporarily by reducing savings or borrowing, but you cannot maintain it forever.

This is what Washington never understands about inflation. They tell people inflation has fallen because the RATE of increase is lower than it was at the peak. That does not mean prices went back down. Consumer prices are roughly 30% higher than at the end of 2019. Something that cost $100 then costs roughly $130 today. Lower inflation merely means prices are rising more slowly from an already elevated level.

This is why consumer confidence can collapse while spending remains strong. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading since 2014. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell to 48.1 and is now 15% below January. People are continuing to spend because they must continue living, but they are increasingly worried about what comes next.

The University of Michigan reports that consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year climbed to 4.6% in September, up from 3.4% in February. Consumers’ assessments of both their current and expected personal finances also deteriorated. The paycheck may still be coming in, but it simply does not stretch as far as it once did. Americans feel the conditions of the economy daily.

Even if inflation fell to 2% tomorrow, today’s elevated price level would remain. Prices would simply continue increasing from that higher base. This is how inflation quietly destroys the middle class. Savings decline, debt rises, homeownership becomes harder, young people delay families, and retirees discover that their savings purchase far less than expected.

The American consumer has kept this economy moving, but there is a limit to how long households can spend faster than their real incomes grow. You cannot raid savings forever, increase credit-card balances forever, or finance your standard of living indefinitely.

Strong consumer spending therefore does not necessarily mean the consumer is strong. Sometimes it means the consumer is paying substantially more simply to remain in the same place. Americans are still spending, but real disposable income has stalled, savings are falling, confidence has collapsed, and prices remain roughly 30% above where they stood before the pandemic-era inflation surge. Washington can call that resilience if it wants, but ordinary people know the difference between spending more because they are becoming wealthier and spending more because life itself has become more expensive.