Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Germany spent decades building one of the most productive workforces in the world. It trained engineers, scientists, technicians, physicians, and business leaders under the assumption that education, sacrifice, and hard work would provide a better standard of living. That social contract is now breaking apart. The people who followed the rules are discovering that the government regards their success as taxable property.

Euronews reported that more than 288,000 German citizens moved abroad within a single year. Germany recorded roughly 97,000 more German citizens leaving than returning, the largest net loss since 2017. This is no longer limited to retirees looking for sunshine. The skilled and productive are searching for an escape from a system that increasingly punishes them for working.

An Indeed survey found that 54% of respondents with household net income of at least €6,000 had applied for jobs abroad or investigated the international labor market during the preceding 12 months. Two-thirds said they generally considered taking employment abroad, while 77% of those interested in leaving expected to remain outside Germany for several years or permanently.

The politicians will pretend that this is about the weather or some desire to experience another culture. The survey tells a very different story. Around 51% cited higher income, another 51% wanted a better quality of life, and 42% were seeking a lower burden of taxes and social contributions. Seventy percent said Germany’s tax burden was too high relative to income and that personal commitment at work did not pay sufficiently.

This is precisely what happens when government destroys the connection between effort and reward. A person working full-time at Germany’s 2026 minimum wage of €13.90 per hour earns approximately €2,409 gross per month. Depending on personal circumstances, that can leave around €1,700 to €1,800 after deductions. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that worker earning a living wage. The disgrace is what happens to the person who spends years obtaining an advanced degree and accepts greater responsibility.

A single employee earning approximately €70,000 gross annually may retain only around €3,500 per month. That income places the worker somewhere around the upper 15% to 20% of individual earners, depending on the population and measurement used. Yet the take-home pay is barely twice that of someone earning the statutory minimum.

The professional may have spent five or six years at university, accumulated debt, delayed starting a family, and accepted a job requiring specialized knowledge and long hours. The government then steps in and compresses the reward until the difference becomes almost meaningless. At some point, people begin asking why they made the sacrifice.

Official figures demonstrate just how low Germany’s salary ceiling has become. The median full-time employee earned €54,066 gross in 2025. The threshold for entering the top 10% was €100,719. Employees with academic qualifications earned a median of €5,916 gross per month in 2024, which might produce roughly €3,500 to €3,700 net for a single worker. Someone considered highly successful on paper may therefore live like an ordinary middle-class employee after taxes, housing, energy, transportation, and food.

Germany has created one of the heaviest tax wedges in the industrialized world. Euronews noted that an average single employee retains only €50.70 from every €100 spent by the employer on labor. The remainder disappears through income taxes and the social contributions paid by both employer and employee. The OECD placed Germany’s tax wedge for an average single worker at roughly 49.2% in 2025, compared with an OECD average of 35.1%.

This is not capitalism. Capitalism rewards productivity and permits individuals to accumulate capital. Germany has constructed a bureaucratic redistribution machine in which the state consumes nearly half the economic value of labor before the worker can save a single euro. Then the same politicians express surprise when skilled Germans cannot afford homes, delay having children, and begin looking abroad.

The United States remained the most frequently searched foreign destination in the survey, accounting for 14.4% of queries, although interest declined from the prior year. Britain and Switzerland each represented 13.6%. Searches involving the United Arab Emirates and India increased by 24%, while interest in Britain rose by 38%.

Switzerland offers higher compensation in numerous professional fields and generally lower taxation, although the burden varies by canton. The United Arab Emirates offers something European governments can barely comprehend: no general tax on personal employment income. The United States is not universally a low-tax country, since federal taxes apply and state burdens differ, but it still offers a deeper labor market and a far higher salary ceiling for technology, finance, medicine, engineering, and entrepreneurship.

Merely obtaining a remote job from an American, Swiss, or Dubai-based company will not solve the problem if the employee continues living in Germany. German tax residency normally means German taxation regardless of where the employer is located. To escape the system legally, the individual generally must establish genuine tax residency elsewhere. This is not simply remote work. It is the physical migration of productive people, their families, their spending, their knowledge, and eventually their capital.

Germany’s remaining attractions reveal the problem. Sixty percent of survey respondents cited the social environment as an advantage, 47% mentioned employment protection, and slightly under 35% named the welfare system. Those are benefits built around security, but security cannot substitute for opportunity forever. A country that protects people from failure while removing the rewards of success eventually produces stagnation.

Brussels has compounded Germany’s domestic mistakes. The European Union has imposed layers of regulation, climate mandates, compliance costs, and energy policies that make European workers and businesses less competitive. Germany destroyed its access to dependable Russian energy, abandoned nuclear power, embraced Net Zero, and watched major industries reduce production or move investment elsewhere. The worker is expected to pay higher taxes while the employer pays higher energy, labor, and regulatory costs. Both sides are being squeezed to finance a political experiment that is failing in plain sight.

This is how a nation enters economic decline. The welfare state requires an expanding base of productive taxpayers, but the state treats those taxpayers as an inexhaustible resource. Germany recorded net immigration of more than 200,000 non-German citizens while simultaneously losing a net 97,000 German citizens. Immigration by itself cannot replace the departure of experienced professionals, entrepreneurs, and highly productive taxpayers.

Capital and labor always migrate away from hostile conditions. Politicians can erect barriers around money, but they cannot force ambitious people to remain where their efforts are treated as a public resource. When more than half of the country’s higher-income households are already looking abroad, this is not a warning for some distant future. The productive class has begun examining the exits, and once families establish new lives elsewhere, they rarely return merely because Berlin promises another tax reform.

There was a time when America’s industrial titans built railroads, steel mills, and oil companies. Today, influence is measured in data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, media, and information. Few families illustrate that transformation better than the Ellisons.

Larry Ellison built Oracle from a small software company into one of the world’s largest technology firms. His background and rags-to-riches story are quite interesting. Today Oracle is one of the dominant providers of enterprise databases and cloud infrastructure, serving governments, financial institutions, healthcare providers, defense contractors, and many of the world’s largest corporations. Oracle’s software touches enormous portions of the global economy. When governments collect taxes, hospitals manage patient records, banks process transactions, or corporations analyze data, Oracle systems are often operating behind the scenes.

Larry Ellison’s personal fortune has placed him among the wealthiest individuals in the world for decades. His influence extends well beyond technology. He has invested billions in real estate, owns nearly all of the Hawaiian island of Lanai, has backed medical research, invested heavily in artificial intelligence, and has maintained relationships with political and business leaders from both parties. The TikTok debacle this year was solved when the power was handed over to Ellison’s conglomerate. The sheer data this family has access to is staggering. Wealth at that level naturally provides access to decision makers across government and industry.

Then we come to his son, David Ellison, who founded Skydance Media in 2010. The company produced or co-produced major franchises including Mission: Impossible, Top Gun: Maverick, and Star Trek, before expanding into television, animation, gaming, and streaming. This was never merely a wealthy man’s son playing Hollywood producer. Skydance became the vehicle through which the Ellison family entered the machinery of American culture.

The Skydance takeover of Paramount for $8 billion brought CBS, CBS News, Paramount Pictures, Paramount+, Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central, BET, Showtime, and decades of film and television rights into the Ellison orbit. The father built an empire around the storage and processing of information. The son moved into the business of selecting, packaging, and distributing information to the public. That combination should concern everyone, regardless of politics. Oracle occupies a critical position within the technological infrastructure used by governments and corporations, while Paramount reaches millions of people through news, entertainment, sports, children’s programming, and streaming. One side of the family empire helps manage the data. The other side can help shape the narrative.

This is how oligarchies emerge in the modern world. They do not need to abolish elections or openly seize control of government. They acquire the infrastructure, the platforms, the studios, the databases, and the channels through which society communicates. Politicians then come begging for access, favorable coverage, campaign support, or technological assistance.

I have written extensively about the growing surveillance state because data is the new instrument of political control. Oracle does not merely sell office software; its databases and cloud systems sit beneath governments, banks, hospitals, corporations, and defense institutions, processing information on countless individuals. This does not mean Larry Ellison personally searches through anyone’s private records, but it does mean his empire occupies a powerful position within the infrastructure where that information is stored and managed. Governments no longer need to kick down every door when they can pressure a handful of technology companies to surrender the data voluntarily or obtain it through the courts. Now his son controls a media empire capable of influencing what millions of Americans see, hear, and believe about that very system. The father’s world helps store the information while the son’s world can shape the public narrative, and anyone who cannot see the danger in combining those two forms of power is refusing to understand how a modern surveillance state is constructed.

Some will say there is no evidence that the Ellisons have committed any crime merely by owning these businesses. That misses the entire point. A concentration of power does not become dangerous only after somebody is convicted. The problem is creating a structure in which a handful of unelected families can exercise more economic, technological, and cultural influence than entire governments. America once feared monopolies because people understood that concentrated economic power eventually becomes political power.

The Ellisons did not invent this system, but they have become one of its clearest examples. Larry Ellison built the technological empire. David Ellison extended the family’s reach into media and culture. When one family can occupy both the infrastructure of information and the institutions that distribute it, we are no longer discussing ordinary entrepreneurial success. We are looking at the architecture of modern power.

QUESTION: You mentioned that the S&L Crisis of the 1980s was caused by the Democrats winning Congress in 1984 and changing the tax code on commercial real estate. Could you explain that connection? Was the banking and real estate crisis primarily driven by Democratic policies at that time?

DD

ANSWER: Oh, most definitely. But there were TWO insolvency waves. Because of the OPEC oil shock of the ’70s, that set in motion a cost-push inflation, which Paul Volker raised interest rates to 14% trying to reverse an inflation that had NOTHING to do with DEMAND.  Drastically higher interest rates resulted in about one third of S&Ls becoming insolvent, which was the first wave of failures in 1981–1983. The number of insolvent S&Ls did not peak until 1985 that year with 21.7% of the industry in trouble.

As I have warned many times, that the solution to a problem adopted by politicians always becomes the problem for the next solution. S&Ls were being crippled by high interest rates of Volcker trying to stop cost-push inflation. Their business model, funding long-term, fixed-rate mortgages with short-term deposits, meant that when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation, they had to pay higher rates on deposits but were still earning low rates on their old mortgages, leading to massive losses that the politicians would always blame on the private sector.

Congress responded passing the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980. This began the process of deregulation, primarily by removing the caps on the interest rates S&Ls could offer depositors (phasing out Regulation Q), but it didn’t yet give them new lending powers. This tried to allow them to compete with Commercial banking.

Failing to solve the problem, Congress passed the critical legislation that allowed S&Ls to make commercial and commercial real estate loans. This was the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982. This act was specifically designed to help S&Ls earn their way out of the crisis by expanding their asset powers to include commercial real estate and construction loans abandoning the restriction on exclusive residential mortgages. The hope was that the higher returns from these new ventures would offset their losses from residential mortgages.

The primary piece of legislation was the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984 (DEFRA), which included several provisions that directly impacted real estate. The act increased the depreciation schedule for real property from 15 years to 18 years. This change meant that investors could not write off the cost of a building as quickly, reducing a key tax benefit for real estate investment. The law introduced new rules targeting “imputed interest,” particularly concerning below-market loans provided by sellers to buyers. These rules made it harder to use creative, seller-financed deals that lowered the buyer’s interest rate in exchange for a higher purchase price. Congress and the Treasury Department viewed this as a tax loophole that allowed sellers to convert ordinary income into lower-taxed capital gains and gave buyers a higher depreciation basis. The new rules were expected to curtail such transactions, which were seen as tax shelters. As if this attack on the Democrat’s hated “rich” imposed restrictions on industrial development bonds and a reduction of tax benefits for property leased by tax-exempt entities. It created a one-way market with an avalanche of sellers and no buyers. Savings and loans, or thrifts, began in the private sector with the first institution of this kind was the Oxford Provident Building Association, founded in 1831 in Frankford, Pennsylvania. The idea was for a group of people to pool their money so members could buy homes, and this model spread across the country.

It was the Great Depression when the Democrats stuck their finger into the pie. The Federal Home Loan Bank Act was signed into law to provide a stable source of funds for mortgage lending trying the resurrect the real estate market. This established the Federal Home Loan Bank System to support S&Ls with low-cost funds for real estate. This was followed by the Home Owners’ Loan Act authorized the creation of federally chartered S&Ls, establishing a national framework for these institutions. The next year saw the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) created to insure deposits at S&Ls, similar to what the FDIC did for banks, which helped restore public confidence. The following year, 1935, is often noted in this history because it marked the completion of this initial regulatory framework and usurped the independence of the Federal Reserve branches as Roosevelt installed a Chairman of the Fed replacing the Secretary of the Treasury. The Home Owners’ Loan Act was further amended in May 1935 to allow existing state-chartered S&Ls to convert more easily to federal charters, a trend that grew significantly that year.

The Democrats never saw a dollar they did not want to tax. They never once consider the implication of their endless greed for taxes and how that alters economic behavior. For decades, the primary function of S&Ls was taking in savings deposits and originating residential mortgages, and their powers to make other types of loans were limited.

The critical shift happened with deregulation in the early 1980s. The Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 expanded S&L powers significantly. For the first time, they were explicitly given authority to make commercial loans, consumer loans, and other non-residential investments. This move enabled them to make commercial real estate lending. The the greed of the Democrats altering the tax code on commercial real estate set in motion a bear market and when the commercial real estate crashed, they blamed the S&Ls for the crisis.

In the wake of the crisis, the government fundamentally reversed course in 1989. The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) was specifically designed to push thrifts back to their traditional role. It did this through a key mechanism called the Qualified Thrift Lender (QTL) Test requiring S&Ls to hold 70% of their portfolio assets in “qualified thrift investments,” which were almost entirely housing-related assets like residential mortgages. This was a dramatic increase from the 60% requirement before FIRREA and was implemented with the explicit intent of “pushing thrifts back towards their traditional housing role.”

FIRRE was designed to prevent the commercial and non-housing lending that had bankrupted the industry thanks to the Democrats’ greed for taxation targeting commercial real estate. They always think they can just grab money and never consider any influence and how it will alter society.

The Democrats created the S&L Crisis since they are ignorant of how the economy functions. I NEVER met a single Democrat, and most Republicans for that matter, with the exception of Bill Archer (1928-2026), who actually understand how the domestic economy functions no less the world economy. The only politician who understood was Bill Archer. Of course, nobody listened that altering the tax code on commercial real estate would result in a crash. When Bill became Chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee, Bill invited me to testify on the dollar and taxation.

Like Mandami in NYC thinks he can just grab money from whomever he pleases. Mayor Mamdani has taken actions targeting landlord misconduct, and various specific eviction pauses or restrictions have been proposed or implemented at different levels of government .

The city helped secure a moratorium on over 300 eviction cases at the Flatbush Gardens complex in Brooklyn. A bill has been introduced in the City Council that would raise fines for unlawful evictions from a maximum of $10,000 to $20,000 per violation, and would bar landlords found guilty of such evictions from receiving city tax breaks for five years.

In Berlin, Germany, a proposal to seize rental properties from large corporate landlords created significant political and legal uncertainty in the real estate market. There was NO BID. Prices did not “crash” because nobody would buy such properties in the face of confiscation. The leader of the Berlin parliamentary group Werner Graf ,
publicly pushed the Green agenda for expropriation “to achieve a housing market that is mostly oriented towards the common good.” It is always the same story, rob the rich and give it to me.

The expropriation proposal, stemmed from a 2021 referendum pushed by socialists, that created considerable uncertainty. The debate alone was seen as a risk that deterred investment and brought to a halt any construction of new housing, as the market relies heavily on private capital. No bank would even lend into such a market when the property could be confiscated as if it was the 1917 Communism Revolution all over again.

Finally, with massive economic damage being inflicted, a federal law was passed only in 2026 to prohibit such expropriations by state governments. This was seen as a key move that neutralized the political risk for property companies, providing them with much-needed legal certainty. The uncertainty contributed to a significant decline in large-volume transactions that collapsed by 82.3% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. That was proof that this insanity of the LEFT taxing every dollar they can find to fill their own pockets always results in an economic collapse.

California has become the #1 state people are fleeing from and Newsom wants to become president? These people never look at the track record and how their constant attempt to just steal from people who have more than them to achieve a higher living standard by reducing that of others without having to work for it. The LEFT always tell the people they are the victims of the rich and count on the majority oppressing the minority, which is precisely against the founding principles of the United States, which had Constitutionally prohibited direct taxation to prevent this sort of legal persecution. The Marxist seized power toward the end of the 19th century and then pushed for a 16th Amendment to the Constitution to be allowed to engage in class-discrimination.

When the Socialists passed the Income Tax engaging in class-discrimination, by World War II, they instituted the Payroll Tax and today nobody escapes. Once the socialist seized control of the government, they ensured that the United States will suffer eventually the same fate as China and Russia.

The greater the Marxist agenda, the lower economic growth, and eventually the country will collapse and split just as Rome did as well as the USSR. Maximinus I was to declare that all wealth belonged to the emperor in a communistic fashion. What took place, however, was the complete breakdown of society. Wealth was driven underground, and money was hoarded, causing VELOCITY to collapse as cash flow in circulation vanished and hoarding prevailed. This caused the economy to implode as commerce ceased, fostering an economic depression that naturally reduced tax revenues.

Maximinus I did not stop with simply private wealth. Maximinus I ordered the wealth of all temples to be confiscated as well. Countless died in defense of their religious beliefs. Not even the gods were respected by Maximinus I, whose view was that they never answered prayers because they did not exist.

Where there had once been golden statues of former Emperors, Maximinus ordered their seizure so they could then be melted down. The Rule of Law collapsed, and Historia Augusta tells us that he -“condemned all whoever came to trial” and that he “reduced the richest men to utter poverty.” The LEFT has been the curse of humanity. They always present the dark side of the human race.

The books have arrived. I autographed them for handouts at this seminar. They are 606 pages, but are extensively illustrated.

Vice President JD Vance is clearly beginning to separate himself from the disastrous foreign policy that has dragged the United States into another Middle East war. The BBC reported that Vance has accused members of the Israeli government of trying to manipulate American public opinion against diplomacy with Iran. He is no longer speaking in the timid language traditionally used in Washington whenever Israel is involved. He is openly telling Israeli officials that the United States cannot continue financing every military ambition dreamed up in Jerusalem.

Vance asked Israel’s critics of the proposed Iran agreement a question they apparently cannot answer: “What is your exact proposal? You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.”

That is an extraordinary statement from an American vice president. Washington has spent decades pretending that every Israeli military operation is automatically in the national interest of the United States. No one is permitted to question Israel and blind loyalty is required on both sides of the aisle, which is perhaps the only aspect Dems and Republicans can agree upon.

Vance also said, “I find this whole freakout in Israel a little bit odd because I think that it comes from a place of mistrust, and I think that America has earned the trust of that region of the world.” He urged Israel to “give a little bit of credit to the United States of America, which I think has been an incredible partner for the Israeli government for a long time.”

Vance can see 2028 coming, and he understands that the MAGA base did not vote for endless war. Trump campaigned against the neocons, condemned the Iraq disaster, and promised to prevent World War III. Yet the United States is now bombing Iran, defending Israel, protecting Gulf shipping, and spending money that Washington does not have.

The Pentagon says the Iran war has already cost the United States $37.5 billion. The administration is seeking nearly $90 billion more in supplemental funding. At least 18 Americans have reportedly been killed and approximately 430 injured. Trump is now threatening to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. This is no longer a limited operation to eliminate a nuclear facility. It is precisely how every forever war expands: one retaliation requires another retaliation until nobody remembers the original objective.

Trump is surrounded by people whose loyalty to Israel is greater than their concern for the long-term interests of the United States. Netanyahu has repeatedly pushed Washington toward regime change in Iran, while Trump has allowed the Israeli government to shape the boundaries of American policy. Netanyahu himself recently said that he and Trump remain aligned on the “big things.” That is precisely the problem. The American people elected Trump to put America first, not to place the United States military at the disposal of another government.

Yet nobody should mistake Vance for some independent farmer who wandered into Washington carrying only a copy of the Constitution. Vance also has a patron, and his name is Peter Thiel.

Thiel gave Vance his start in the elite world of venture capital. Vance worked at Thiel’s Mithril Capital, and Thiel later helped finance Narya Capital, the investment firm Vance co-founded. When Vance entered politics, Thiel contributed $15 million to the super PAC supporting his 2022 Senate campaign. Trump’s endorsement delivered the voters, but Thiel’s money built the runway.

Thiel is also the co-founder and chairman of Palantir, the data-analytics company that has embedded itself throughout the American military, intelligence, immigration, health, and law-enforcement systems. Palantir is not simply selling accounting software. It builds platforms capable of bringing enormous quantities of government and private information together, identifying relationships, tracking individuals, and turning scattered records into operational intelligence.

The U.S. Army awarded Palantir an enterprise agreement worth up to $10 billion over ten years, consolidating 75 separate software and data contracts. ICE awarded the company a $30 million contract associated with ImmigrationOS, a system designed to help identify and track immigration cases. Palantir’s federal contract awards nearly doubled in 2025 to more than $970 million, with most of that business connected to the Department of Defense.

Thirty members of Congress wrote to ICE and the Department of Homeland Security in April 2026 warning that Palantir-developed systems could contribute to a “mass surveillance ecosystem.” Civil-liberties organizations have raised concerns that combining medical, immigration, tax, employment, travel, location, and law-enforcement information could produce a centralized digital profile of millions of people.

This is where Vance’s anti-war positioning becomes complicated. He may oppose Netanyahu’s desire to bomb every regional adversary, but the political network that launched his career is deeply connected to the construction of the American surveillance and national-security state.

Trump has become politically bound to the Israeli alliance and to donors and officials who treat unconditional support for Israel as a test of loyalty. Vance owes his extraordinary rise in no small part to Thiel, whose company profits from government intelligence, military AI, policing, and mass data integration. One man is pulled toward a foreign-policy establishment centered on Israel. The other emerged from a technology establishment that wants to manage society through data.

Vance may sincerely believe that the Iran war must end. His criticism of Israel is justified, and his warning that a nation cannot “kill your way out” of every security problem is correct. Netanyahu’s strategy has produced endless retaliation, wider regional conflict, disrupted energy markets, and another enormous bill for American taxpayers. Someone inside the administration had to say it.

If Vance wants to become the genuine anti-war candidate in 2028, he must oppose more than Israel’s effort to prolong the Iran war. He must confront undeclared warfare, intelligence-agency abuse, military contracting, warrantless surveillance, centralized databases, and the companies that profit from turning every citizen into a collection of searchable data. Otherwise, 2028 will offer America another carefully manufactured choice: Trump’s war state or Thiel’s surveillance state. Neither represents the constitutional republic the Founders intended.

Every recovery eventually reaches a point where the official statistics no longer resemble reality. Politicians point to stock market records, economists celebrate another quarter of GDP growth, and central bankers congratulate themselves because inflation has moderated. Then you look at Main Street, where the people actually creating jobs are quietly closing their doors.

Small business bankruptcies continue climbing at an alarming pace. Total U.S. bankruptcy filings reached more than 310,000 during the first six months of 2026, a 12% increase from the same period last year. Commercial bankruptcies continue rising alongside consumer filings, reflecting financial pressure spreading across the entire economy rather than remaining isolated to one sector.

The most revealing figure involves Subchapter V bankruptcies, the streamlined Chapter 11 process created specifically for small businesses. According to Epiq AACER, those filings jumped 67% during the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Overall commercial bankruptcies increased 14%, while traditional Chapter 11 filings surged 37%. Those are not numbers associated with a booming economy. They describe an economy where business owners are fighting simply to stay alive.

Small businesses employ nearly half of the American workforce and account for roughly 44% of U.S. economic activity. They do not have the luxury of issuing corporate bonds, raising billions through Wall Street, or borrowing indefinitely from investors willing to overlook losses. They survive on cash flow. When customers stop spending, interest rates rise, insurance premiums double, payroll costs increase, and suppliers demand higher prices, there is nowhere left to hide.

Many commentators continue blaming one issue in isolation. Some point to inflation. Others blame tariffs, labor shortages, or higher interest rates. The reality is that business owners are being hit from every direction at once. COVID relief programs have disappeared, borrowing costs remain the highest they have been in years, operating expenses continue climbing, commercial insurance has become another major burden, and consumers themselves are increasingly stretched by record credit card debt and the highest cost of living many have experienced in decades. A business cannot prosper when its customers are financing groceries with credit cards.

This is what sovereign debt crises look like before governments admit they exist. The public often expects a dramatic collapse similar to 1929 or 2008. More often the deterioration begins slowly. Restaurants disappear from neighborhood shopping centers. Family-owned manufacturers quietly liquidate equipment. Local retailers announce closing sales. One bankruptcy rarely attracts national attention, but thousands occurring across the country reveal something much larger taking place beneath the surface.

The government continues spending at extraordinary levels while expecting the private sector to absorb the consequences. Federal debt continues approaching $40 trillion, yet Washington keeps borrowing because debt has become the preferred solution to every political problem. At the same time, small businesses are expected to refinance loans at interest rates two or three times higher than they became accustomed to only a few years ago. Governments borrow with virtually no limits. Small businesses face the full discipline of the marketplace.

There is another reason these bankruptcies deserve attention. Small businesses have historically been one of the primary engines of upward mobility in the United States. Large corporations create employment, but small businesses create ownership. They allow ordinary families to build wealth independent of financial markets. Every small business that disappears represents another piece of the middle class slowly being transferred into larger corporate hands.

Our computer has consistently warned that periods of declining confidence eventually concentrate economic power. Large institutions generally survive because they possess access to capital, political influence, and financial flexibility unavailable to independent operators. Smaller firms, despite often being more innovative, are forced to close because they simply cannot absorb years of rising costs while customers reduce spending.

The headlines continue celebrating resilient stock indexes and moderating inflation. Main Street is delivering a very different report. The real strength of an economy has never been measured by the performance of its largest corporations. It has always been measured by whether an ordinary citizen with determination, skill, and hard work could build something of lasting value. When those businesses begin disappearing one after another, the foundation underneath the economy begins weakening long before Wall Street notices.

India’s imports from China reached a record $79.41 billion during the first six months of 2026, a 21.8% increase from a year earlier. Bilateral trade climbed to $91.72 billion, up 23.6%, putting the two countries on pace to exceed the record $155.6 billion in trade achieved in 2025. India’s exports to China did rise an impressive 37.5%, reaching $12.31 billion, but that only pushed the trade deficit even higher. India still recorded a staggering $67.1 billion trade gap with China in just six months.

The politicians love to frame geopolitics as though nations simply choose their trading partners based upon ideology. Reality has always been dictated by economics. India and China continue competing for influence across Asia, clashing over border disputes, and expanding their respective militaries, yet Indian factories continue relying upon Chinese components because modern supply chains were built around efficiency rather than national security.

China remains deeply embedded in India’s industrial base. Electronics, machinery, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, pharmaceutical ingredients, industrial components, and solar equipment continue flowing into India because replacing that manufacturing capacity cannot be accomplished by passing legislation. Politicians can declare economic independence whenever they like. Building an alternative industrial ecosystem requires decades.

Many people continue speaking about “decoupling” from China as though it were simply a political decision. If anything, the numbers demonstrate precisely the opposite trend. While governments around the world discuss diversification, commerce continues moving toward China because that is where the manufacturing infrastructure already exists. Capital does not relocate because politicians give speeches. Capital follows efficiency, profitability, and production capacity.

China’s exports surged far beyond expectations in June, rising 27% from a year earlier. Artificial intelligence infrastructure, computing equipment, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, and advanced manufacturing are driving a new export wave that extends far beyond low-cost consumer products. The world continues talking about containing China while simultaneously purchasing more Chinese technology than ever before.

New Delhi has encouraged domestic manufacturing through its “Make in India” initiatives, expanded infrastructure spending, and sought to attract foreign investment away from China. Yet manufacturing itself requires enormous quantities of intermediate goods that still originate inside China. Even as India develops its own industrial capacity, much of that expansion depends upon importing Chinese machinery and components.

Modern economies function through integrated supply chains where one nation’s exports become another nation’s manufacturing inputs. Disrupt one link in that chain and production costs rise everywhere.

The broader geopolitical landscape only reinforces this trend. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping routes, increased insurance costs, and created uncertainty across global energy markets. India’s own trade deficit widened in June as exporters faced weaker global demand and shipping disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz. When transportation becomes more expensive and supply chains become more fragile, countries naturally gravitate toward suppliers capable of delivering at scale. China remains uniquely positioned to fill that role.

Our computer has always distinguished between political headlines and long-term capital trends. Governments may continue discussing strategic competition, tariffs, and economic realignment, but businesses still require dependable suppliers, functioning infrastructure, and competitive prices. Until another nation can replicate China’s manufacturing ecosystem on a comparable scale, trade will continue flowing toward Beijing regardless of diplomatic tensions.

“We need diplomacy between West and East. Therefore, if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) enters the government, we will seek peace in Ukraine and advocate for peace negotiations so that this senseless bloodshed finally ends. We do not want to unilaterally take sides. That is not the path to peace—it is the path to war. We must not be ‘ready for war,’ but ‘peace-seeking.’ Therefore, we will stop all aid to Ukraine. No more German taxpayer money for Ukraine, no more weapons, and no more German soldiers. Under our leadership, Ukraine’s accession to the European Union or NATO is out of the question.”

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m a new subscriber and just wanted to say thank you. Your work has given me a real understanding of how time and price interact, and it’s remarkable how your forecasts avoid the bias that pervades everyone else’s predictions. Even with all the geopolitical noise, gold dropped into June just as you forecasted at the start of the year. It just proves that everything hinges on what people believe.

Thank you for the education.

Shane

REPLY: What I have always found is that TIME is more important than PRICE. You have a finite amount of time and that dictates the trend. PRICE is secondary. You can have a price objective, but if you run out of TIME, the game is over.

TIME and PRICE are two entirely separate forecasts that must align to confirm a major market turning point. PRICE alone is meaningless without the correct timing.

The Primacy of Time
TIME is the dominant and more important factor . It is the “fabric of the universe,” not just a component of market analysis. The central idea is that a market move reaching a specific price level is not significant unless it occurs at a predetermined point in time.

Price as a Secondary Objective
Price targets are determined by patterns and reversals, but they are always secondary and must be “earned” by the market. In the Dow, I had provided multiple price objectives (e.g., for the Dow: 18,500, 23,000, 40,000, 55,000, 65,000). The key is that reaching one objective before the TIME target signaled the next price level becomes possible.

Markets are seen as a series of connected events (a “wave of contagion”). By understanding the “hidden order” within this apparent chaos, one can define scenarios to navigate the market, rather than trying to predict it with one-dimensional certainty. Those who argue Random Walks are incapable to seeing both PATTERNS as well as TIME. As Einstein said, God does not play dice with the universe.