Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Everything will crash and burn in 2032. A client approached me at the latest World Economic Conference to ask if the asteroid heading for Earth in 2032 could potentially become the catalyst for the global event our computer has been forecasting.

Back in 2013, asteroid 2013 TV135 was briefly flagged with a tiny probability of impact in August 2032, but further observations slashed that risk and NASA eventually removed it from the official watch list. More recently, the press has latched onto asteroid 2024 YR4. Early estimates put the impact probability around 3% for a possible 2032 encounter, which, of course, produced the usual sensational headlines. As additional data came in, that risk collapsed to roughly one-thousandth of a percent (0.001–0.0017%), with NASA and the European agencies now treating it as a negligible threat to Earth.

This is not “we all die in 2032,” as the math they publish is a tiny risk. Historically, as more observations come in, those probabilities tend to fall even further, as we saw with 2013 TV135.

My models are not built on asteroids, earthquakes, or any one event in isolation. They are built on the observable cyclical behavior of capital, confidence, and human nature. The 8.6-year wave is just the smallest visible unit of a much larger fractal structure: 8.6 years, 51.6 years, 309.6 years, and so on.

We are currently in what I have called the grand Public Wave, a 309.6-year cycle that peaks in 2032.85. That is the equivalent in time to the wave that marked the peak of the Roman Empire around the reign of Marcus Aurelius, which marked the moment when the political system crested and began its long, irreversible decline

2032 will be the culmination of the current 51.6-year wave of the ECM, and the peak of the larger 309.6-year wave. The fact that these asteroid windows keep clustering around the very same year the model has been projecting for decades as the peak of the grand Public Wave is, at minimum, an intriguing coincidence. The arrival of such a threat in 2032 “may simply be destiny and part of the universe’s timing.

Socrates is not screaming “asteroid!” and telling everyone to hide in bunkers. When people asked if 2032 meant “Armageddon” or the end of all life, I said no. The last comparable Sixth Wave picked the peak of Rome; it did not vaporize the planet. Instead, the financial capital of the world migrated over centuries from Rome to Constantinople, then to Europe, Britain, America, and after 2032, it will shift toward Asia and eventually back again.

Retailers are predicting a slight decline in Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales, an early indication of holiday-season spending and Q4 sales. Total sales in the US alone are expected to exceed $1 trillion, with growth between 3.7% and 4.2%, a bit beneath last year’s 4.8% growth. However, individual shoppers are expected to spend 4% less.

Dive Research found that 70% of American consumers cited the rising cost of living as their reason for cutting back this holiday season. Groceries, in particular, have 57% of shoppers reconsidering their gift purchases. Consumers spend when they believe it will be more expensive tomorrow, leading 88% of respondents to say they will participate in Black Friday/Cyber Monday, though 12% admit Cyber Week is a marketing gimmick for most items.

Deloitte research also found that 82% of respondents plan to shop this week, up from 79% in 2024. The average person is expected to spend $622, down 4% from 2024. Yet, two-thirds of those surveyed (64%) admitted they plan to use financing options to complete their purchases at a time when household debt is at a record high in America. Around 69% of respondents said they will spend less due to the increased cost of living, while 43% will pull back on spending due to financial constraints. Deloitte also found that those who plan to use financial options will spend 12% more than those paying outright.

Most shoppers plan to rack up their credit cards without setting foot in a store. Online shopping has dominated the holiday sales seasons, and a number of studies show that consumers are more likely to spend more when shopping online. Drive’s study found that 81% of consumers will use AI this year to find the best deals and compare past prices. Over 30% of consumers will ask AI to compile gift options for specific relatives and friends. Not so coincidentally, the majority of AI platforms have introduced e-commerce features over the past year. Walmart, Alibaba, and Amazon each offer company-provided AI tools to assist shoppers. ChatGPT implemented a new feature this year that combines chatting with consumerism. Mention a need, and the system will conveniently provide you with links to a list of products. Marketing to the masses has never been easier.

Consumers will continue to consume, albeit slowly sinking further into debt and exacerbating the private debt crisis.

In the first image, you see an Australian MP wearing a burqa in Parliament to debate banning the burqa for women.
In the second image, it’s me and my friend, two women who have actually lived under the reality of forced burqas and hijabs imposed by the Taliban and the Islamic… https://t.co/HwD12SiPzj pic.twitter.com/Bi1KTO5R2T

— Masih Alinejad ?️ (@AlinejadMasih) November 25, 2025

Australian Senator Pauline Hanson attempted to implement a burqa and full-face covering ban. Rejected, Hanson showed up to Parliament donning a burqa to showcase the “radical” roots of the garment. Her peers labeled her a racist and reprimanded her with a one-week ban from the government.

“If Parliament won’t prohibit it, I will showcase this oppressive, radical, non-religious head garment that threatens our national security and the mistreatment of women right here on the floor of our parliament,” Hanson declared.

Twenty-four nations, including Muslim nations, have banned the burqa. One of the first measures Islamic extremists implement is mandated coverings for women (see: Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc.). Women are treated as sub-humans who may not participate in society or even show their faces. “Let me make it quite clear and imam clerics have actually said the burka is not a religious requirement. They wear it because they choose to or they are forced,” the Australian senator added.

Australia refuses to acknowledge “women” as a protected class. I suppose anyone could wear a burqa, and what a protest that would be—hundreds of conservatives covered up and demanding that their Western country protect Western rights. One could not walk into a bank or an airport with a helmet or ski mask. Public safety is at-risk.

Islam is not a race and protecting Western values is not racist. Islam is not compatible with Western ideology, as history has repeatedly shown. The same liberals demanding equal rights refuse to recognize the oppressive roots of hiding women from society.

Women who have lived under Islamic extremism are backing Hanson. The Australian government refuses to allow these women to speak — how ironic.

As activist Masih Alinejad wrote in the X post above:

“In the first image, you see an Australian MP wearing a burqa in Parliament to debate banning the burqa for women. In the second image, it’s me and my friend, two women who have actually lived under the reality of forced burqas and hijabs imposed by the Taliban and the Islamic Republic appearing in an American TV. Now I learned that the debate on Banning the burqa wasn’t even allowed onto the floor of the Australian Senate. I understand these issues can feel politically risky. But let’s be honest: for us women of Iran and Afghanistan who lived under forced hijab and burqa, this is not an abstract political debate, it is the reality we survived. We were suffocated by it.

I was beaten by Iran’s morality police for showing my hair. Afghan and Iranian girls have been lashed, even killed, just for talking about their rights. And even thousands of miles away, we face assassination plots for the “crime” of asking for a debate on forced hijab. This isn’t culture. It’s oppression, exported globally.

What some call “culture,” we recognize as gender apartheid enforced by the Taliban and the Islamic Republic. This is why I want to extend an invitation to you , and members of the Australian Parliament: Open your Parliament to those of us who lived under forced hijab and burqa. Let Afghan and Iranian women share the truth directly with you, to offer a clearer and more human understanding of what millions of women face today. Australia has a proud democratic tradition of hearing voices, not silencing discussion. Including us would honour that tradition. We don’t ask to be spoken about. We ask to be heard.”

PRIVATE BLOG – Why Trump is Wrong on Interest Rates

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

No one blinked when Venezuela declared itself at war with the US. President Trump said he would not bother declaring a war against the drug cartels, opting to simply kill any potential smugglers. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was labeled a terrorist by US intelligence agencies this week. The West showed no concern over the matter, but it turns out Maduro has friends in low places.

Chinese President Xi Jinping published a birthday message to Maduro, declaring the two nations “intimate friends” and promising to “safeguard their sovereignty and national security, the dignity of the nation, and social stability.” Xi did not mince words or ask a party member to speak on his behalf. “China resolutely opposes the meddling of external forces in Venezuela’s internal affairs under any pretext,” Xi wrote in direct opposition to the US.

Russia also chimed in on the discussion, with Putin calling Maduro a “dear friend” and “strategic partner.” China has accused the US of violating the United Nations Charter by threatening Venezuela’s sovereignty and security. Venezuela is now a formidable opponent, a potential launching point for yet another proxy war.

The model had been targeting the week of August 18, 2025, as the beginning of heightened tensions and a turning point on the Panic Cycle. Not only did we see an unexpected meeting between Russian and American leaders, but the US began to encircle Venezuela, and Israel called up its reserve troops to continue its attack on Gaza. At the time, I questioned whether Putin had given Trump the green light to surround Venezuela, as Russia was its primary protector.

Remember that Venezuela was one of the wealthiest, most powerful nations in the world before it turned to socialism. In 1950, Venezuela ranked near the top globally in terms of income per person, and the oil boom boosted the nation before everything imploded in the 1980s.

China is currently one of Venezuela’s top trading partners. Moreover, China does not want the West to have unilateral power to impose regime changes without pushback. Now, China has condemned the attack on Venezuela, but that is quite different than pledging direct support. The cards have been laid on the table, and the leaders of the game are prepared to fight on a new front if needed. Stretching the West’s military to the brink, fighting on so many global fronts, may be a strategic long-term play.

Donald Trump sees the economy through the lens of a borrower. He does not understand the perspective of lenders, no less the central bank. Trump recently mocked that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had “some real mental problems” and is “grossly incompetent.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent came forward on Tuesday and said there is a good chance that Powell will step down as chair before the year ends.

“The only thing Scott is blowing it on is the Fed because the Fed — the rates are too high, Scott. And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass, okay?” Trump said at a recent rally. “‘Sir, don’t fire him. Sir, please don’t fire him. He’s got three months to go,’” Trump said, imitating Bessent in a pleading tone. “‘Please, he’s a voice of reason.’”

The Federal Reserve is independent of Washington. Trump would have fired Powell years ago if he had the authority. They attempted to pin the expensive new Fed headquarters as a foul on Powell’s part, but it’s clear they don’t have a leg to stand on. The only possible way Trump could push Powell out would be if he conducted a Marjorie Taylor Greene-style attack and forced his resignation. Powell has been battling it out with Trump since 2018—he could hang on for three more months.

Trump, unfortunately, does not understand that lower rates do not equate to a booming economy. I met with the Treasury in 1981, when I was new to the game and naive about government. They had raised rates to around 14% and I explained that they were looking at doubling the national debt. “Yes Marty, but we will be paying it back with cheaper dollars.” They simply do not understand how the global economy functions and are unwilling to listen.

Interest rates are not going to significantly drop, no matter how much Trump screams and yells. When you have a sovereign debt crisis on the horizon, coupled with war, rates tend to rise.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its delayed jobs report on December 16, nearly a week after the Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss rates. The latest ADP data suggest that payrolls are continuing to contract. Private companies have shed an average of 13,500 employees per week over the past four weeks.

The last update showed a running average of 2,500 weekly job losses. American companies are rapidly downsizing amid this wave of stagflation. If the Fed were looking at the BLS September release, nonfarm payrolls were around 119,000 with unemployment in the 4% range.

In other data, the September CPI headline inflation rate was 3%, a 0.3% monthly rise. Core PCE is running a bit under 3% on a 12-month basis. Inflation is allegedly easing, but above the 2% target.

The preferred GDP gauge was not released for Q3, but the Atlanta Fed believes it is around the 4% annualized range, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis placed it at 3.8%.

The current federal funds rate is at 3.75%-4.00%. Washington is ready to throw Powell into the fire if he does not cut rates. But QE has failed, and Powell has been steadfast.  The Fed does not control the fiscal side of the budget and cannot prevent government from perpetual borrowing. If the Fed does nothing, then the money supply is increasing because it’s the debt side and merely currency that gains interest. The models show heightened volatility coming out of 2025, but no long downtrend in interest rates that Trump would like to see.

Trump’s proposal for peace in Ukraine has been met with an overwhelming condemnation from the world’s neocons. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reemerges from the shadows whenever he hears word that a war may be winding down. He played an instrumental role in persuading Zelensky not to negotiate a peace treaty with Russia when it was apparent that Ukraine could not easily win, and now, Johnson is urging Ukraine to continue the war.

“Imagine that you are Vladimir V. Putin and you are spending a calm Saturday in the Kremlin… You casually watch the television news, and you cannot help but smile at the incompetence of your opponents, at the astonishing weakness of the West. You have lost more than a million soldiers, killed and wounded, in your attempts to subdue Ukraine. You have still failed to capture more than 20 percent of the country’s territory. Your economy is faltering. And now they are talking about some new 28-point plan to end the war – and it could have been written entirely by the Kremlin,” Johnson warned.

In typical neocon fashion, Johnson wants to paint the proposal as a victory for Russia. He acknowledges millions have died, but since they are Russian, their lives do not matter. Continue the slaughter at the expense of the people.

Johnson declared that Britain was in a proxy war with Russia back in November 2024. “It has been pathetic… Let’s face it: We’re waging a proxy war but not giving our proxies the ability to do the job. For years now, we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs, and it has been cruel,” he admitted one year ago. Why would Britain feel threatened by Russia? Why would any sane leader thrust their people into a battle that is not theirs to fight?

The head of M16, Sir Richard Moore, also came out in November 2024, admitting British intelligence was discreetly fighting on behalf of Ukraine. “We cherish our heritage of covert action, which we keep alive today in helping Ukraine resist the Russian invasion,” Moore commented.

Moore and Johnson know that Russia has no incentive to invade Europe, especially Britian. There is absolutely nothing for Putin to gain. Europe, on the other hand, has everything to gain through conflict with Russia. They see Ukraine as the ultimate entryway into Russia

War is a great way to default on debts. You get to form a new government, and they always disavow the debts of the previous government. Europe has been committing economic suicide. Between the COVID-19 Lockdowns, the NET-ZERO Climate Change, and then the sanctions on Russia that doubled their fuel costs, you could not ask for a more brain-dead group of politicians who have ZERO comprehension of even how the economy functions.

Plain and simple—Russia invaded due to the West’s failure to honor the Minsk Agreement. The neocons disregard the proposal entirely and conveniently disregard the original signed agreement when discussing conceding territory.

“The document offers Ukrainians not only to give up any attempts to reclaim Crimea or Donbas, but also to cede vast territories, including about 250,000 Ukrainians whom the Russians do not even control. Of course, you knew your negotiators would try something like that. But you never believed anyone would take this seriously. You can’t believe that President Trump would back this plan, because it is a complete betrayal of Ukraine,” Johnson continued in his recent writing.

LET THE PEOPLE VOTE! The ethnically Russian people living in Ukraine have been unable to decide on their leadership. Zelensky outlawed their religion and language. Everyone believes they are protecting the people in these regions from the other side, but only one side is open to learning the people’s wishes. The 28-point plan saves the PEOPLE of both Russia and Ukraine. Russia cannot abandon the war without guarantees that NATO will back down and Ukraine is merely an EU puppet. Zelensky now has two days to decide whether he is willing to destroy his nation for the neocons.

Around 29% of low-income American households are currently living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new study by the Bank of America Institute, up from 23.5% in 2024. Spending on necessities such as groceries, utilities, housing, autos, and credit cards now exceeds over 95% of household income for over a quarter of Americans.

The poor are getting poorer; low-income households are naturally more inclined to report a rise in financial hardship, while high and middle-income earners have not seen a notable increase in paycheck-to-paycheck financial situations.

Inflation remains beneath the 2022 high of 9.1% but has not met the Fed’s 2% target. Again, I do not have faith in the figures provided by government agencies. Prices simply have not notably declined since the pandemic and this is the new normal. The essentials that a household cannot survive without are likely to never retreat to 2019 levels. Shelter alone accounted for 36% of CPI in 2024, rising 5.2% throughout the year. Baseline shelter costs were around 30%–yes 30%–lower in 2019.

Grocery items have been highly volatile, and government data suggests they have increased 12% since the pandemic, but anyone with access to a grocery store can dispute this claim.

Companies are cutting costs, beginning with entry-level and low-level work. Lower-income positions have seen only around a 1% rise in wages this past year and have not kept up with inflation in the least. Job openings are declining as companies scale back, outsource, or automate.

Is it any wonder that the welfare state continues to multiply? The government spends billions each month on supplementing income and its never enough. State budgets are suffering as cracks begin to appear in the system. They found the funds to support millions of migrants and now voters are wondering why the government is unable to step in for them. Naturally the government still demands taxes from the lowest earners and will never drop rates because they too are living on debt.

Those with the least are the first to feel the impact, but it vibrates throughout the entire economy. A separate poll by Harris found that three-quarters of Americans earning over $100,000 annually live paycheck to paycheck and rely on credit for necessities. Bank of America also noted that countless people living in poverty are unbanked and were not accounted for in their study. Consumers are the backbone of America’s economy. The red warning signs are everywhere: the system is crumbling.