Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

FOX Business reported that the average monthly payment for a new vehicle reached a record $770 during the first quarter of 2026, according to LendingTree’s analysis of Experian data. Lease payments climbed to $619 per month, while used vehicle payments reached $531. The average amount financed for a new vehicle rose to $43,925, and outstanding auto loan debt surged to a record $1.685 trillion, exceeding the nation’s total student loan debt for the first time. This is not merely an automobile story. It is another warning that the purchasing power of the average American continues to deteriorate.

The average family is financing nearly $44,000 just to buy a depreciating asset because wages have failed to keep pace with the real cost of living. Government tells us inflation is under control, yet Americans are borrowing more money than ever simply to drive to work. If inflation were truly only 2%, car payments would not have doubled over the past generation while household budgets continue to buckle under the weight of necessities.

The debt statistics are becoming alarming. Auto loan balances have risen from $1.071 trillion in 2016 to $1.685 trillion today, an increase of more than 57% in just ten years. Auto debt now represents roughly 9% of all consumer debt, narrowly surpassing student loans. Americans originated another $182.1 billion in auto loans during the first quarter alone. We are borrowing at record levels to finance assets that lose value the moment they leave the dealership.

Borrowers with credit scores between 601 and 660 actually carried the highest average monthly payment at $811, while even subprime borrowers averaged $792. The system is trapping the middle class in perpetual debt. The better your credit, the lower your payment. Those already struggling financially are paying the greatest monthly burden, making it even harder to escape.

Edmunds found that the average financed amount for new vehicles reached another record of nearly $44,000, while average monthly payments climbed to approximately $773. One out of every five financed new vehicles now carries a monthly payment of at least $1,000. Buyers are responding the only way they can. Down payments are shrinking while loan terms continue stretching to seven and even eight years. Nearly one-quarter of new-car buyers are now taking loans lasting 84 months or longer. It is financing transportation like a mortgage.

Negative equity is becoming another hidden crisis. Edmunds reported that nearly 31% of trade-ins involved owners who owed more than their vehicles were worth, with the average underwater balance exceeding $7,100. Consumers are rolling debt from one vehicle into the next. They are not buying newer cars because they are wealthier. They are borrowing more because they have no alternative.

This is precisely what happens during the late stages of a debt cycle. Governments celebrate rising consumer spending while ignoring that it is financed with ever-larger amounts of borrowed money. The economy appears healthy because credit continues expanding, not because the average citizen has become more prosperous. Eventually there comes a point where consumers simply cannot borrow any more. That is when demand collapses, defaults accelerate, and politicians inevitably look for someone else to blame.

View this post on Instagram

Europe’s housing market is not recovering, it is becoming unlivable. Eurostat reported that in Q1 2026, EU house prices rose 5.1% from Q1 2025, while rents increased 3.0%. Compared with Q4 2025, house prices rose another 1.2% and rents increased 0.7%. Between the 2025 average and Q1 2026, house prices climbed 2.9% and rents 1.8%. Wages do not keep pace with this, and young families are being priced out of the future.

A house is no longer a home, it has become a political and financial instrument. Europe buried its people under taxes, regulation, Net Zero costs, energy insanity, and mass migration pressure on housing supply, then acts surprised when people cannot afford to live. The state creates the crisis, then demands more power to solve it.

The worst house-price increases between 2025 and Q1 2026 were in Portugal at 10.3%, Bulgaria at 9.4%, Slovakia at 9.1%, Croatia at 8.4%, Spain at 7.5%, and Lithuania at 7.4%. France fell 0.5% and Finland fell 1.8%, but that does not mean affordability has returned. It means confidence is collapsing in places where the economy is already under strain.

Rents increased in almost every EU country. Croatia was the disaster, rents exploded 21.9% in just that comparison period. Bulgaria rose 6.4%, Greece 5.0%, Romania 4.5%, Czechia 4.1%, Slovakia 3.5%, and Portugal 3.3%. Slovenia was the only country where rents fell, down 0.9%, while Finland was basically flat.

This is the consequence of centralized planning. Brussels wants open borders, climate mandates, expensive energy, endless regulation, and then wonders why the average person cannot rent an apartment or buy a home. The private citizen is being squeezed from every side while governments protect bondholders, banks, and their own failed social experiments.

The sovereign debt crisis and housing crisis are connected. Governments need rising asset values to keep the illusion of solvency alive. They tax property, they borrow against inflated economies, and they pretend rising home prices mean prosperity. But when housing becomes unaffordable, birth rates collapse, civil unrest rises, and capital begins to flee. That is where Europe is heading. This is not a housing boom, it is another warning sign of a system that is breaking apart.

Canada’s latest defence procurement is becoming impossible to ignore. The CBC reports that Ottawa is now looking beyond simply purchasing Saab’s GlobalEye airborne early warning aircraft. NATO itself has now selected the same Swedish system to replace its aging Boeing E-3 AWACS fleet, making GlobalEye the alliance’s future airborne surveillance platform. This is no small contract. NATO intends to acquire up to 10 aircraft in a program worth roughly $4.5 billion, while Canada is expected to purchase six of its own. The significance extends well beyond military hardware. It represents another major boost for Canada’s aerospace industry and another step toward integrating Canada’s economy deeper into the expanding military-industrial complex.

What many fail to appreciate is that this is not simply Sweden selling aircraft to Canada. GlobalEye is built around Bombardier’s Global 6500 business jet, manufactured in Canada. Every NATO aircraft ordered means additional work flowing into Canadian aerospace, engineering, maintenance, supply chains, and long-term servicing. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte himself emphasized that this is a multinational program involving European, Canadian, and American industries. Canada is no longer merely buying equipment. It is positioning itself as part of the production network supplying NATO’s future surveillance capability.

This follows precisely the trend we have been watching unfold. Canada recently selected Saab over Boeing for its own airborne early warning fleet, citing Arctic sovereignty, domestic industrial development, and reduced dependence on American suppliers. Saab has openly stated that the program will provide skilled work for Canadian industry, while Bombardier becomes an integral supplier to NATO’s next-generation surveillance fleet. These are not isolated procurements. They are laying the industrial foundation for decades of defence spending.

Canada already has the industrial base to profit from this shift. Ottawa’s own 2026 aerospace review found that the Canadian aerospace industry contributed C$34.2 billion to GDP in 2024 and supported 225,000 jobs, while remaining the top R&D performer in Canadian manufacturing. The broader defense industry added another $11.1 billion to GDP and supported 81,800 jobs. Canada also exported nearly C$27 billion in aerospace goods to 166 countries in 2024, with over 70% of aerospace manufacturing revenue tied to exports. This is why the GlobalEye decision matters. It is not just a plane. It plugs Bombardier and Canada’s aerospace supply chain directly into NATO’s rearmament cycle.

Canada is steadily transforming from a country known primarily for natural resources into one playing a much larger role within NATO’s defense production network. Whether one supports that direction or not, investors should recognize what governments themselves are signaling through their spending priorities. The expansion of aerospace, surveillance technology, advanced manufacturing, and military infrastructure is no accident. It reflects a world that is preparing for a far more dangerous geopolitical future than politicians are willing to admit publicly.

PRIVATE BLOG – Ukraine Beware of September

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

The Ukrainian currency has been a perpetual short since 1998, and nothing has changed since. The central bank tried to fix the currency in 2022 when the war began. Our models could easily forecast precisely when the war would begin, for there was a massive outflow of currency in advance. Yet, I posted that the war cycle turned up in 2014, which marked the beginning at the 2011 World Economic Conference, and later I posted that the model had targeted Ukraine in 2013.

Zelensky actually confessed to the Washington Post that he knew when Russia would invade but refused to warn the people, claiming it would have cost him $7 billion because capital would have fled.  Our models clearly picked up massive capital outflows ahead of the start of the war confirming that advance knowledge existed. It appears that was the money of  Zelensky and friends moving money out based on inside information while he refused to tell the people on advance. That would have been a crime in the United States.

There is evidence of a significant financial and economic exodus from Ukraine in the lead-up to February 24th, 2022. While comprehensive data on capital flight is not available insofar as identifying the specific individuals without searching accounts in offshore havens. Zelensky purchased a $5 million property in Egypt under his mother-in-law’s name, Olga Kiyashko. His aids apparently stole $75 million from US funds.

The weeks before the invasion saw several distinct forms of capital and asset flight. For example, on February 13th, 2022, a reported 20 private jets and charter planes departed from Ukraine, carrying some of the country’s wealthiest businesspeople and oligarchs. This was a clear, visible sign of the wealthy moving their assets and themselves out of the country on insider information.

The flight of capital was also evident in the global financial markets. The prospect of war led to a “flight to safety,” where investors moved money out of riskier assets into safer havens like the U.S. dollar. Specifically, Ukraine experienced investor flight, its currency (the hryvnia) came under severe pressure, and its central bank’s reserves were being rapidly depleted as it tried to stabilize the currency.

In the days before the invasion, dozens of Western diplomats and their families were EVACUATED from Kiev. This was accompanied by international insurance companies announcing they would stop covering flights over Ukraine from February 14th, which led to a near-total closure of Ukrainian airspace as commercial airlines canceled flights. This made it physically difficult for anyone to leave the country, accelerating the panic. If you had a private jet, that was the only way out of town.

This pre-war flight of capital and talent contributed to a rapidly growing financial crisis for Ukraine. The European Commission noted that the financial “financing gap” for Ukraine, the amount of money it needed to function, more than doubled from €2.5 billion to €5 billion due to the investor flight and economic pressure caused by the Russian troop buildup before the invasion even began.

The capital controls were implemented on February 24th, 2022, to prevent any citizen from doing what Zelensky and friends were doing on inside information. Zelensky admitted to the Washington Post that he knew in advance and did not warn the people. The capital controls were implemented only when the war began.

Their primary purpose was to stop a complete financial collapse by preventing the remaining capital from fleeing the country as the full-scale war began. The operation of the foreign exchange market was suspended, except for the sale of foreign currency by customers. They also implemented a moratorium on Cross-Border foreign currency payments, effectively preventing money from being transferred abroad.

Cash withdrawals from client accounts were limited to UAH 100,000 per day, and the release of cash in foreign currency was prohibited entirely. Even the National Securities and Stock Market Commission also introduced restrictions on transactions on capital and organized commodity markets starting at 11:00 a.m. that same day to prevent market collapse.

People who were skeptical about how we could forecast where and when the war would begin simply have to comprehend that someone ALWAYS knows in advance and money and assets as ALWAYS moved in advance. We may not be able to nail it down to a specific person without access to the accounts where the money is transferred, but we can forecast such events with capital flows in addition to our cyclical models. There were multiple indicators pointing to a sharp increase in capital leaving the country before the invasion.

The establishment continues to dismiss the growing support for socialism among young people as nothing more than college indoctrination. That is only part of the story. If we refuse to understand why an entire generation is losing faith in capitalism, then we are destined to repeat the very mistakes that gave rise to socialism throughout history. The Fox News analysis citing Heartland Institute and Rasmussen polling noted that 53% of Americans aged 18 to 39 said they would support a Democratic Socialist for president, while 76% favored nationalizing industries such as health care, energy, and big tech. The overwhelming motivation is not ideology, it is economic despair.

Young Americans have entered adulthood during one of the most distorted economic periods in modern history. Housing has become unattainable for millions. According to the same polling, 74% of young voters believe America is facing a housing crisis, 62% say the economy is unfair to young people, and 36% describe themselves as struggling financially or in outright crisis. When asked why they supported democratic socialism, the most common answer was simple: housing costs. This is precisely what governments never want to admit. People do not abandon free markets because they suddenly become Marxists. They lose faith when the system no longer appears to reward hard work or provide a realistic path toward owning a home, raising a family, or building wealth.

This is hardly unique to the United States. Across Europe, Canada, Australia, and much of the developed world, younger generations face soaring rents, stagnant real wages after inflation, enormous student debt, and some of the weakest housing affordability on record. Many graduates cannot find careers matching their education, while others remain trapped in temporary work or are forced to live with their parents well into adulthood. Governments spent decades inflating asset prices through endless debt expansion and artificially low interest rates. Those who already owned homes and financial assets became wealthier, while those entering the workforce found themselves permanently priced out. That is not capitalism functioning properly. It is the direct consequence of governments manipulating markets and accumulating unsustainable debt.

The politicians will blame corporations. Universities will blame capitalism. The socialists will promise that government ownership is the solution. They all conveniently ignore that governments created much of this crisis themselves.

History demonstrates that socialism gains support not when capitalism succeeds, but when governments corrupt free markets until ordinary people no longer recognize them. The Roman Empire followed the same path, debasing its currency while expanding state control until confidence collapsed. Every sovereign debt crisis eventually creates demands for greater redistribution because people become desperate. We are watching that cycle unfold once again. The danger is that socialism will not solve the underlying problems of debt, declining productivity, or demographic collapse. It merely transfers more power to the same governments whose reckless policies created the crisis in the first place.

All are welcome to attend the upcoming seminar I am hosting on July 25, Understanding the World Economy. I’ve spoken to a number of people who said they are bringing their kids or nieces/nephews. If you have teenagers or young adults in your family, bring them along. Schools teach theories, but they rarely explain how the real world economy actually functions. Understanding capital flows, debt, history, and the cycles that shape society is knowledge that can benefit every generation. The sooner young people learn how the world truly works, the better prepared they’ll be for the future.

The Federal Reserve minutes from the June 16–17 meeting showed policymakers divided over where interest rates should go next. The official minutes admit the problem plainly. Inflation had “increased further and remained well above” the Fed’s 2% objective, while officials blamed tariffs, supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and demand from the AI boom. That is not a normal business cycle. That is government-created chaos colliding with war, energy, trade barriers, and capital flows.

The Fed voted 12–0 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but unanimity on the vote hides the split underneath. The minutes state that “a few participants” saw a case for raising rates immediately, while others thought policy was already “slightly restrictive.” That is central-bank language for confusion. They do not know whether inflation will fade or accelerate, because this is not simply consumer demand. The old Keynesian playbook does not work when prices are being driven by tariffs, war risk, energy shocks, and government deficits.

The minutes also said “many participants” believed elevated commodity prices and supply disruptions could persist longer than expected. That is the key. They keep pretending inflation will return to 2% if they wait long enough. But confidence is collapsing in government itself. Rates are not rising merely because the Fed wants them higher. Rates rise when capital demands a higher return to buy government paper. That is the part the academics never understand.

The Fed even admitted the ownership of Treasury securities has shifted away from “price-insensitive official-sector holders” toward “more price-sensitive private investors.” That is a major warning. Foreign central banks are not absorbing U.S. debt the same way they once did. Private capital wants compensation. This is why rates can rise even with a weakening economy. It is the sovereign debt crisis creeping into the room while everyone stares at CPI.

Warsh is now trapped. Trump may want lower rates, Wall Street may want lower rates, and politicians always want cheap money. But if inflation reaccelerates, the Fed will be forced to raise because Keynesian economics is the only model they have. They will not admit the real problem is fiscal. They will not admit Washington’s endless borrowing, tariffs, war spending, and regulation are creating the very inflation they claim to fight.

The minutes removed the prior easing bias and said the Committee “will deliver price stability.” That sentence is important. It means the Fed is preparing the public for the possibility that cuts are not coming. The split is no longer between hawks and doves. It is between those who still believe inflation will magically fade and those who can see that the system has changed.

This is what I have explained many times. The Fed does not control the entire yield curve. It can influence short-term rates, but it cannot command global capital. If capital begins to distrust government debt, rates rise. If war escalates and capital flees Europe, the dollar can rise with gold. If inflation comes from energy, tariffs, food, and supply shocks, crushing small business with higher rates will not solve the problem. It will only expose how fragile the debt system has become.

Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Greece are projected to exceed NATO’s new 3.5% core-defense spending target this year, nearly a decade ahead of the 2035 deadline. Lithuania is projected at 5.33% of GDP, Estonia 5.1%, Latvia 4.92%, Poland 4.68%, and Greece 3.65%. These are not small accounting changes. This is the militarization of Europe before the people have even been asked whether they want this future.

NATO pretends this is about “security.” Governments always use that word when they want unlimited money and no debate. The old 2% target was once treated as unbearable. Now they have moved the goalpost to 5% of GDP, 3.5% for core military spending and another 1.5% for cyber, infrastructure, and anything else they can stuff into the war budget.

The nations closest to Russia are spending first because they know Brussels and Washington have turned Ukraine into the excuse for a permanent war economy. Poland and the Baltics are not waiting until 2035 because they understand where this is going. But the real question is never asked: who benefits? The average European cannot afford housing, food, energy, or basic living costs, yet suddenly there is endless money for weapons.

Reuters reported that total NATO defense spending is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion in 2026, with the United States still accounting for nearly 57% of the alliance’s military expenditure. So even after all the lectures about Europe stepping up, America remains the piggy bank. This is why I have said the United States should get out of NATO and let Europe deal with Russia if that is the future they want. America’s real strategic threat is China, not financing another endless European war.

Germany, France, and Britain remain below the new 3.5% benchmark, while smaller nations on Russia’s border are racing ahead. That tells you the whole story. The countries that feel exposed are arming. The larger European powers are talking. Brussels wants a European army, NATO wants more money, and the people get the bill.

I have received numerous requests to host a technical training conference similar to those I conducted in the 1990s. Those sessions were intensive—and at $5,000 per seat, they were not inexpensive. By today’s standards, however, that would be a bargain. Consider that DAVOS currently charges between $27,000 and $35,000 per attendee. I am giving this serious consideration, particularly because I recognize that the need for such training has become urgent as we approach 2032. That said, it is a monumental undertaking. I would need to author an entirely new textbook to accompany the program. Let me reflect on it.

PS Thanks for the photo of my badge from New Orleans