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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

2014 War Cyclew 2011 Conference 300x173

Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

The Plot to Seize Russia_3Dmockup_2 300x225

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Costs Up, Wages Down – Inflation Prevails

Quote of the Week | Milton Friedman Do you agree that inflation acts like a hidden tax? #miltonfriedman #inflation #tax #taxation #economics #freemarket #libertarian #chicagoschool #centralbank

Consumer prices in the USA rose 0.4% in August, four times July’s 0.1% increase, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. The politicians will point to that 3.4% number and pretend inflation has somehow stabilized. But look beneath the surface and you see an entirely different economy. Energy rose 2.1% in a single month and 16.3% from a year ago. Gasoline jumped 3.9% in August alone and is now 27.4% higher than a year ago. Other motor fuels, including diesel, surged 9.6% in one month and 44% annually. This is precisely why reducing inflation to one government statistic is absurd.

The August Producer Price Index already rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% annually, while processed goods for intermediate demand jumped 1.8%. Diesel prices at the producer level surged 24.1% in August. Those costs work their way through the entire economy. Businesses either raise prices, reduce margins, cut workers, or close. There is no fifth option.

Food increased only 0.1% for August and grocery prices were unchanged, but that does not mean Americans suddenly received relief. Food prices remain 2.7% higher than a year ago. Eggs rose another 2.9% during August. Eating at restaurants continues to rise, and households are still paying the snowballing increase from the inflation that already occurred. Government economists speak as though a lower rate of inflation means prices went back down. They did not. If something rises from $100 to $120 and then increases another 3%, you are not recovering purchasing power. You are simply being robbed more slowly.

Shelter increased 0.3% in August and remains 3% higher annually. This is where the Federal Reserve has created its own nightmare. Raise rates to fight inflation and mortgage payments become unaffordable. Lower rates and you risk reigniting asset prices and inflation. Meanwhile, the federal government continues borrowing trillions regardless of where rates stand. There is no monetary policy that can cure fiscal irresponsibility.

Core CPI supposedly looks better because it excludes food and energy, precisely two things people cannot choose to stop buying. Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, stronger than expected, although the annual rate eased from 2.5% to 2.4%. Airline fares rose 2.7%, hotel and motel prices jumped 2.4%, mobile phone costs surged 5.9%, and new and used vehicle prices also increased. So while economists debate whether 2.4% core inflation is encouraging, the person trying to pay the bills sees something entirely different.

Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings declined 0.3% from a year earlier. Real wages have now fallen for five consecutive months. THAT is what people actually feel. It does not matter what Washington tells them about GDP or employment when the paycheck buys less every month. People know inflation from their bank account, not from some economist sitting in Washington manipulating a basket of goods.

This is also why the Fed is trapped. Markets are now overwhelmingly expecting another rate hike. But raising rates will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, produce another barrel of oil, lower diesel prices, or end geopolitical conflict. You cannot cure an energy shortage with interest rates. The Fed will nevertheless raise rates because that is the only tool it has, and then everyone will blame the Fed when mortgages, auto loans, business credit, and government interest expense rise again.

This inflation is increasingly geopolitical and fiscal rather than merely monetary. War drives energy higher. Tariffs alter supply chains. Government borrowing keeps expanding. Defense spending is exploding throughout NATO. Europe is constructing a war economy while sovereign debt continues to rise. Then central banks are expected to somehow neutralize all of this by moving an overnight interest rate up or down 25 basis points.

The CPI is telling us something far more important than whether inflation was 3.3% or 3.4%. The structure of inflation is changing. The easy post-pandemic explanation is finished. We are entering an environment where geopolitical instability, energy, sovereign debt, and declining confidence in government increasingly dictate capital flows and prices.

That is precisely the environment where the old economic theories begin to fail. The Fed cannot control war. It cannot control Congress. It cannot control the national debt. It cannot control global capital flows. Yet everyone will demand that it somehow control the consequences.

Free Cash for Drugs – Vote Democrat

Homeless

For years, anyone who dared question the integrity of the election process was treated as some conspiracy nut. We were told election fraud was virtually nonexistent, that safeguards were more than adequate, and that demanding tighter controls was somehow an attack on democracy. Well, take a walk through Skid Row in Los Angeles and explain this one. Federal prosecutors have now charged three people in an alleged operation that paid people on Skid Row to sign California ballot petitions using the stolen identities of registered voters.

They pulled the identities of actual registered voters from a database, handed those identities to people on the street, paid them to copy the information onto petitions, and had them forge the corresponding signatures. That is precisely the type of manipulation we were repeatedly assured should not concern us.

James Brass, known as “Lord,” has been arrested and charged along with Courtney Price and Jateisha Herron. Prosecutors say the operation ran from February through August 2026. Brass allegedly received approximately $41,600 from coordinators associated with one petition-management company, while false declarations were signed claiming the circulators had personally witnessed the supposed registered voters signing the petitions.

Skid Row contains some of the most vulnerable people in America. Homelessness, mental illness and drug addiction are everywhere. Earlier reporting from undercover investigations described people being offered cash, cigarettes and marijuana for petition signatures.

And this is not even the first federal case to emerge from Skid Row this year. Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong (no relation) agreed to plead guilty after admitting that she paid people, including homeless individuals, to register to vote. She normally received money for petition signatures only when the signer was a registered voter, so prosecutors say she began offering people money to complete voter registration forms as well. Some homeless people had no address, so she supplied her own former Los Angeles address for them to use. California automatically mails ballots to registered voters, meaning ballots associated with some of those registrations potentially could have been sent to an address where those individuals did not live or receive mail. How many warning signs does government require before admitting that vulnerabilities exist?

Twain Mark If voting made any difference they would not let us do it

What particularly infuriates me is the exploitation of the homeless. Politicians parade around pretending they care about these people while Los Angeles has allowed human misery to become part of the landscape. Then along comes a political signature industry where every valid signature has monetary value. Suddenly the homeless person is valuable, not because anybody intends to get him off the street, treat his addiction or restore his dignity, but because his hand can produce a signature worth money. That is how sick politics has become.

There is a financial incentive behind this entire petition business. California requires hundreds of thousands of signatures to qualify statewide initiatives, creating an industry in which petition management companies pay circulators and signatures themselves acquire economic value. Once government creates a system where political access is measured by hundreds of thousands of signatures and each signature can generate money for somebody in the chain, do not act shocked when people attempt to game it.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said the defendants allegedly used members of Skid Row’s vulnerable homeless population to “cover up their tracks.” This is why identification and verification should never have become partisan issues. If someone tells me that requiring safeguards somehow “suppresses democracy,” I ask the obvious question: whose democracy are we protecting?

We have created a society where government knows virtually everything about YOU. Flock cameras can track your automobile. Banks report your transactions. Your phone knows where you sleep. The IRS knows what you earn. Government databases know where you live. Yet somehow when it comes to protecting the political process, asking that identity actually be verified becomes controversial. They can track an ordinary citizen across a city with cameras, but ensuring that one human being corresponds to one legitimate political identity is suddenly an unbearable burden.

Enough. We are destroying confidence in our institutions because politicians refuse to acknowledge weaknesses until federal prosecutors put somebody in handcuffs. Nobody should exploit a homeless addict for a political signature. And nobody should be afraid to demand that the system be secured simply because some political hack will call them an “election denier.”

Democracy cannot survive without confidence. Confidence cannot survive without transparency. If these allegations are proven, prosecute everyone involved regardless of party or ideology and follow the money wherever it leads. Stop pretending that fraud cannot happen. The federal government itself is now prosecuting people precisely because it can.

Normalizing Constant Surveillance

How to Disable LG TV's 'ACR' System to Stop Data Harvesting and Recording

This is completely unacceptable. We have reached the point where you can purchase a television for your own home, pay for the television with your own money, put it in your living room, and discover that the damn thing may be capable of collecting information about you, your network, the devices around you, and what you are watching. An investigation by Gamers Nexus, Level1Techs, and independent security researchers found LG televisions scanning local networks for phones, smartwatches, computers, and other devices, collecting information about nearby Wi-Fi networks, location and IP information, and using Automatic Content Recognition to identify what appears on the television, including content coming through HDMI. Researchers also reported finding evidence of microphone audio being captured while a television was in standby and stored locally while offline.

LG acknowledges that its televisions can scan for compatible devices on the same network, describing this as ordinary smart-TV functionality, and says its ACR advertising feature is opt-in. Researchers nevertheless demonstrated just how much information modern televisions are technically capable of seeing around the household. LG Ad Solutions boasts of reaching hundreds of millions of “addressable secondary devices,” and LG advertising executives have used phrases such as “we own the glass” when describing the company’s relationship with the television screen. Excuse me? You sold me the glass. YOU DO NOT OWN IT AFTER I BUY IT. That mentality is precisely the problem with the modern technology industry. You think you are purchasing a product. Increasingly, corporations look at the product as a permanent doorway into your life.

I have written extensively about Flock cameras and the government’s expanding surveillance machinery. I have written about commercially available location information, license-plate databases, facial recognition, and the gradual destruction of privacy. Now look around your own house. Your television, refrigerator, doorbell, phone, smart gadgets, laptop, and any other device connected to the internet is capable of watching you.

LG smart TVs constantly spy on users, logging Wi-Fi networks and recording  microphone audio even when offline or on standby. A joint investigation by  YouTube channel Gamers Nexus and security researchers has

People need to STOP accepting this as simply the price of modern life. That attitude is how freedom disappears. “Well, that’s just how smart TVs work.” NO! Why should it be? Why should a television need to know what other devices are sitting on my network? Why should an advertising business need to understand the entire “household” rather than simply display the program I selected? Why should I need to dig through privacy agreements and obscure settings to determine whether the screen sitting in my living room is analyzing what I watch? The burden has been reversed. Instead of corporations proving why they absolutely require information, citizens are expected to discover how to stop them from collecting it.

The argument that everyone agreed to this somewhere inside a terms-of-service agreement is equally absurd. Nobody reads 40 pages of legal garbage before turning on a television. That is not meaningful consent. It is a legal shield written by lawyers to protect corporations. If a device is going to monitor viewing behavior, identify devices throughout a household, process voice information, or transmit information for advertising purposes, the consumer should be told in plain English exactly what is happening and should have to deliberately turn those features ON. Privacy should be the default. Surveillance should require permission.

This becomes infinitely more dangerous when government enters the equation. Data collected for advertising today can become enormously valuable to government tomorrow. We have already seen government agencies purchase commercially available information rather than obtain it through the traditional warrant process. We have seen police departments construct enormous searchable networks of license-plate cameras. We have watched the line between corporate data collection and government surveillance become thinner and thinner. The government does not need to install a microphone in every living room if citizens voluntarily purchase internet-connected microphones themselves.

That is why the argument “I have nothing to hide” is so incredibly foolish. Privacy is not about hiding criminal behavior. Privacy means government and corporations have no inherent right to know everything about you. What books you read, where you drive, who visits your home, what you watch, what websites you visit, what political programs you consume, and what you say inside your own living room are nobody’s damn business.

The frightening part is how quickly people have been conditioned to accept this. Twenty-five years ago, tell someone that their television might scan the devices inside their house, analyze what they watch for advertising, connect that information to other devices, and contain microphones capable of responding while the screen appears off, and people would have called it Orwellian. Today they call it a “smart home.”

Corporations should not be permitted to turn products people purchase into permanent surveillance platforms buried beneath unreadable agreements. Government should not be permitted to obtain information indirectly that the Constitution would require it to justify collecting directly. Privacy protections need to catch up with technology because technological capability is advancing far faster than the laws written to restrain its abuse.

We should not accept a surveillance state as an inevitable fact of modern life. We should not accept that everything must collect data because everything now contains a computer. We should not accept cameras following our cars, phones following our movements, algorithms following our purchases, and televisions monitoring our homes simply because somebody tells us this is the future. If that is the future they are offering, then we have every right to reject it.

The Next Documentary

World_War_III_The_Documentary R

The Middle East – The Cyclical View

172 Year Revolution Cycle

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find your analysis refreshing. You back up everything with facts, and your computer is amazing. No wonder the CIA wanted your source code. You warned that this Middle East War would spread, and it was not going to be over in a few days, as they told Trump. You warned that the 2020 election would be rigged but from a global perspective. I believe you said that was COVID that justified the mailin ballots.

2024 Middle East Cycle of War

Yet you wrote in your 2024 Middle East report about the rise of war with Israel: “Why is this one different? This is 72 years from the rebirth of Israel. However, this local cycle also aligned with 2020 on the major 172-year Revolutionary Cycle which has inspired the rise of the LEFT.”

I think it is time you update that report since everything has played out as your computer forecast.

CP

PS Maybe you need a cyclical geopolitical assistant. Things do not look like they are calming down.

Israel Cycle of War

ANSWER: The Cycle of War on Israel was spot on. The operation Midnight Hammer began on the night of June 21, 2025 (US time), with strikes concluding by June 22. The model turned May 8th, 2025. We do know that it was Jared Kushner who set up and attend meetings with Netanyahu in 2025. He served as an informal, unpaid adviser to President Trump, focusing primarily on Middle East peace negotiations. Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the billionaire NYC real estate developer, met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem to push for a Gaza ceasefire deal. They were later invited to join an Israeli cabinet meeting to help approve the agreement. Because they are NOT government employees and off the record from any official government status, they are using the same tactic as Hillary with her Private Server. The FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) would require the disclosure of everything, but only if they were government employees. Hillary used her private server to circumvent the FOIA requirements and then destroyed her emails to cover up her dealings. So we will never know the fi=ull story with Netanyahu.

Middle East

I know that people are claiming the Strait of Hormuz is not really that important and oil will decline. They are ignoring two wild cards. The swift offensive by the Iran-backed Houthis who have positioned themselves to seize control of a vital Middle East waterway on the other side disrupting Saudi Arabia. This presents a significant new challenge for not just President Trump as his conflict with Iran, but will further put a floor on crude. The other lunatic is Zelensky attacking the refineries and attacking Iranian ships to Russia. The real crisis is in refined products and this is showing up as a Panic Cycle for 2027.

The Houthi fighters have pushed south along Yemen’s coastline, capable of disrupting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the “Gate of Tears” at the entrance to the Red Sea. This is expanding Tehran strategy to bring the West to its knees. They took Perim Island, situated in the center of the strait between Yemen and Africa. This is especially troubling for Saudi Arabia, which has been exporting much of its oil from Red Sea ports.

I will add this to the list of things to get to.

As far as finding a cyclical geopolitical assassitant, that us easier said than done.

Ukraine Coming to a Head

Zelensky Government Fracturing

QUESTION: Mr. A, do you see any chance of peace between Russia and Ukraine?

RL

ANSWER: War ends in only one of two ways. Either a knockout punch with total defeat, or surrender due to military or economic exhaustion. Trump has effectively cut off the military funding for Ukraine. For perspective, Russia’s military budget was $66 billion. By the end of 2025, $175 billion was wasted in Ukraine with no accountability.

This is where it becomes a coin flip. Any Neocon dream of defeating Russia will be suicidal for the West. So let’s look at the practical side. With aid cut off from the USA, that means NATO and the EU must step up and fund the war. Italy is already screaming. The only deal would be that Russia surrenders regions it has taken in exchange for the regions in the Donbas that Ukraine still holds, and, in reality, the Minsk Agreement is finally executed, and the Russian people in the Donbas are at last free from Zelensky.

Churchill on Truth

But Zelensky won’t hold an election because he knows he will lose. He and the Duma have been stuffing their pockets unbelievably. They have no personal incentive to hold agree to peace for they will be voted out and the West is so indoctrinated to claim they are fighting for democracy when the entire Minsk Agreement was to allow the Donbas to vote. When Crimea voted to join Russia, they claimed the vote was rigges. Yet the people in the Crimea are Russian. The West refuses to tell the truth about anything.

Normally, this war would be over on sheer attrition and exhaustion. But Europe is desperate for war and they have been selling this to their people. My concern is that they will create some false flag to keep this war going and to justify spending money they do not have to retain power in Brussels. If Ukraine takes the peace, Brussels fears they will fall as the state turn inward.

Beware of October. This is coming to a head.

 

 

PRIVATE BLOG – The Energy Crisis for 2027 – Fill Up

PRIVATE BLOG

PRIVATE BLOG – The Energy Crisis for 2027 – Fill Up


Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

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Does Anybody Know What They Are Doing Anymore?

Confused Man

QUESTION: Marty, I believe you said the war in Ukraine has completely changed warfare. Drones are the new weapon, and both sides are using NVIDIA chips. Former US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said he thought the war has reached a turning point and that technological superiority will give Ukraine a chance to defeat Russia.

Would you comment on that given your computer and geopolitical expertise?

Ben

terminator R

merchant of deathANSWER: This is starting to resemble the movie Terminator. There is a kill zone between both sides where you stick your head up, and you are killed by a drone. I know Driscoll has joined Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and now head of the US defense company Perennial Autonomy, which operates in Ukraine. Schmidt has become the Merchant of Death (published 1934) for World War III like DuPont was for World War I. He claims he is defending democracy profiting from every kill, yet Russia has elections and Ukraine does not. Interesting how you look the other way when the money keeps rolling in.

I believe they both share the same ideas and both seem oblivious to how this war started and who has been pulling the strings. The very idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia is really absurd. Putin just warned the EU not to send troops to Ukraine. The EU & NATO want this war. Just like Iraq, there was never any planning for what came next after removing Saddam. Nobody even asks if Russia is defeated, what would happen? There is no consideration that a coup could take place and the old hardliners grab power and they too are like NATO and would love to even the score.

Pressing Nuclear Button

These people seriously lack any sense of history or geopolitics. They are too busy admiring themselves in the mirror as they spout Neocon propaganda without checking the facts. This idea that Russia can be utterly defeated is as absurd as proposing that the USA can be defeated. Propose that to the US military and high generals will quickly say they would nuke the adversary in such a condition.

China has warned Trump they will cancel any summit if the US sends military supplies to Taiwan. If you are a completely linear thinker, incapable of seeing the world as a whole, they are pushing us into World War III with this nonsense. China would join Russia and North Korea, to mention just two, because they KNOW that if Russia were destroyed, they are next. China is preparing for “national total war” – America is the enemy named in the Pentagon report.

So we now have drone wars with machines flying around using NVIDIA chips to decide autonomously who to kill. Nobody seems to think beyond the end of their nose. We have FLOCK cameras targeting people and some police departments are also engaging in tracking financial activity and using it as a pretext to pull people over. Britain has more people in prison than Russia for what they wrote on something like Facebook. Welcome to the world gone completely nuts as we head into 2032.

AMSTRONG x MARIO NAWFAL: Pickaxe Mountain, Trump’s Next Move, and Oil Over $100