Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your services and I attended the Tampa Conference. You have opened my eyes to see the world as a whole. A famous analyst just said and it is becoming a glaring issue that they are only domestically focused as you said blind to everything outside the United States. ________ said:

“We want long-term interest rates to go lower, but that’s only gonna happen if we can get inflation under control by reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s a tall order,” _______ said. “The Treasury Department’s attempts to get this under control I think have only made investors more nervous.”

My question ia with Trump’s tariff war and his war against Iranand we have Bessent imposing sanctions on Iran while trying to support the bond market, your track record record and computer puts everyone to shame. I am not an international hedge fund manager as you were. But I can see that they are trying to defend a view on tariffs, sanctions, and bonds that are a losing ticket. Why doesn’t Bessent call you in?

EK

ANSWER: Besides the Neocons who try to keep me away from Trump and I believe are now intercepting my letters to him, then there is the old rumor that those who lost big on the Russia collapsed and the failed regime change blackmailing Yeltsin and expecting the IMF would never allow Russia to collapse, are the ones who blamed me and told the CFTC we had to be shut down. I wrote to Bessent, but got no response. They say beware a woman scorned for she knows no limit to fury, that appears to apply to sore losers in high-stake finance. They never believe in my forecasting. They always claimed I had too much influence which was greater than all the influence that they could bribe for their guaranteed trades. When the forecast that Russia would collapse made the front page of the London Financial Times, that was the icing on the cake. It wasn’t that my computer was correct, it was I had too much influence and had to be taken down so they could manipulate markets without interference.

In August 1998, during Russia’s financial crisis (ruble devaluation and debt default), George Soros’s Quantum Fund / Soros Fund Management group lost approximately $2 billion in Russian markets. Contemporary reports (including The New York Times) attribute this to the fund under chief investment strategist Stanley Druckenmiller. The positions were described as mostly equities, with some exposure to Russian GKOs (short-term ruble Treasury bills) and dollar bonds. Druckenmiller publicly acknowledged the losses at the time.
Bessent’s role at Soros

Bessent joined Soros Fund Management in 1991 and worked there through roughly 2000 (first stint), including as head of the London office. He is well-documented as a key member of the team on the famous 1992 Black Wednesday trade that shorted the British pound and generated roughly $1 billion in profits for Soros. I was advising the British government them and warned them what the club war doing. So I believed in free markets, they believed in manipulating markets. Bessent later returned as Chief Investment Officer (2011–2015) and is credited with profitable trades such as shorting the Japanese yen.

The danger here is that after stepping in and doubling the purchases, the risk is that new lows will shatter the confidence in Bessent and the ability of the government to manipulate the bank market. As I hace said before, in February 1987, there was the Louvre Accord where they said that the dollar had fallen enough. When it continued to make new lows, that was it. Confidence in the central banks collapsed and that led to the 1987 Crash. That is the risk we now have. Rate will rise thanks to geopolitical chaos and there will be no way to prevent long-term rates from rising.

His latest sanctions on Iran and going after any bank that has contact with Iran will fail. It just makes hom look authoritative. Sanctions have NEVER worked even once the same as Marxist Communism/Socialism, which tries to eliminat the business cycle and create utopia void of any recession or depression. The US put sanctions on Cuba in 1960, they are still there. The sanctions on Russia did not even the Ukraine War against Russia.

Our computer has been projecting rising long-term rates since 2020. With the rising trend in geopolitical insanity with this need for war, there is no possible way that rates would decline long-term. This is far more that the Strait of Hormuz. The Madman Zelensky has attacked Russian energy to the point that they now must import refined products. Zelensky and Netanyahu belong in prison. Neither cares about the world and they only look at their own personal hatreds and to hell with the world.

“When we correlate the US 30-year bonds we see volatility rising in 2022 and building into 2030. Here the strongest turning point is 2023 and a Directional Change came here in 2021. Clearly, this does not look good for the future of the debt markets.” id/page 27

The opening line in 2020 WEC Bond Bubble Report had forecast that 2020 would be the low and from there on into 2032 we will be looking at a bond crisis – not a stock crisis.I find it humorous how people are claiming the stock market will crash the biggest in 150 years but remain clueless of the real crisis – debt.  The report began:

“he markets have always one major objective in mind – prove that the majority is wrong be it at the top or bottom of major turning points. Now that we are drawing near the conclusion of this Economic Confidence Model 8.6-year Wave #938, we are facing the mother of all debt crises from a 5,000-year low that will probably go down in the financial history books as to why governments should be prohibited from borrowing at any time in the future”

ID/page 8

Tariffs are a Marxist philosophy to protect jobs. This flies in the face of David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage. You can grow lettuce in the desert probably at a cost of $10 when you can buy it from someone else for 50 cents. Tariffs are a tax, plain and simple. They result in making the consumer subsidize higher labor costs. This is why union are just socialist organization. They began about working conditions. After that, they became extortion operatings for excessive pay.

The shift of shipping from New York City to New Jersey and other ports wasn’t a single event, but a decades-long process driven by new technology and labor unions that thought they could make any demand. While the change began in the late 1950s and accelerated in the 1960s, the labor unions simply became abusive.

Major strikes, like the 1951 dock strike, prompted shippers to consider other ports like Boston and Philadelphia to avoid disruptions.

The introduction of container shipping favored large, open, modern facilities. The Port Authority invested heavily in Port Newark and the new Elizabeth, N.J., terminal, which opened in 1962.

Shippers like United States Lines moved operations to New Jersey for practical reasons, leading to tension with the ILA union over job losses in Manhattan.

A pivotal event was in 1968 when United States Lines decided to berth its new flagship container ship, the American Lancer, in Elizabeth, NJ, rather than at its Manhattan piers. This was due to the modern facilities required. The move sparked a union strike in protest.

The unions chased ships out of NYC, labor costs and issues became a major factor turning into a war between employees vs management. Frequent wildcat strikes and complex work rules demand by unions in the 1950s made NYC a less reliable and more expensive port for shippers.

Tariffs operate the same way. Making America Great does not mean bringing back overpriced labor. Also ignored in this equation are TAXES! The City of Detroit may have been the place where auto manufacturing began, but the stupidity of the Democrats and this presumption that they can always just rob the rich and business, resulted in chasing out every auto-manufacturer and the city then went into bankruptcy by 1937.

Putting tariffs on products does NOT make America great, it reduces the standard if living for Americans. It is not just the labor costs. I have worked on restructuring multinational companies in my career. I know why they move. Most is regulation and taxes. They do not move simply to pay someone $2 less and hour. The cost of moving is far greater than such a savings. This is not just about labor costs, it is also about taxes and regulation at the city, state, and national level.

A bank does not actually have everyone’s money sitting in a vault waiting to be returned. The entire system functions because everyone assumes they will not demand their money at the same time. Once that confidence begins to crack, the numbers on a balance sheet become secondary because people want CASH.

That is what we must now watch in Russia. Russians have been pulling billions out of the banking system, with demand for physical cash accelerating dramatically this summer. According to Russian Central Bank data cited in the press, nearly $3.4 billion was withdrawn during just the first two weeks of August after approximately $7.3 billion in July and more than $4.5 billion in June. The Central Bank itself reported that cash in circulation increased by roughly 700 billion rubles during July, compared with about 500 billion in June.

This does not mean the Russian banking system is collapsing tomorrow. Nevertheless, something much more important is taking place beneath the surface. Russians are becoming nervous about leaving their money inside the financial system. Rumors have circulated that the government could eventually freeze or commandeer private deposits to help finance the war, and once people begin questioning whether they will retain unrestricted access to their own savings, government assurances become increasingly meaningless. Fear of possible seizure has become one factor driving the movement into cash, alongside drone attacks, economic uncertainty, and disruptions to electronic payments.

This is always the danger with capital controls. Russia has already demonstrated that it will restrict access to money when the state believes national interests require it. Foreign-currency withdrawals remain restricted, and accounts belonging to various foreigners from so-called “unfriendly” nations have faced controls since the war began. Putin recently relaxed some restrictions affecting foreign depositors.

People forget that money is ultimately a question of confidence in government. You can raise interest rates to 20%, offer attractive deposits, and tell everyone that the banking system is perfectly safe, but none of that matters if people begin fearing that the state itself may change the rules. The greatest threat to a banking system is not necessarily bad loans. It is the realization among depositors that their money exists inside a political system whose rules can change overnight.

Russia is also confronting a growing liquidity problem inside its banking sector. The structural liquidity deficit reportedly exceeded 2.7 trillion rubles by August 13, the highest level since the crisis surrounding the invasion in March 2022. The Russian Central Bank argues that this particular measure should not be confused with the availability of deposits or credit and says the deficit remains manageable. That distinction is valid, but the fact that liquidity conditions are attracting attention at precisely the same moment people are increasing their demand for cash should not simply be dismissed.

The war is becoming increasingly expensive, and this is where the economic pressure begins to matter politically. Defense spending has absorbed enormous resources while high interest rates have squeezed the civilian economy. Russian businesses have also reportedly made hundreds of billions of rubles in so-called voluntary contributions to the federal budget. Whenever governments use the word “voluntary” when asking businesses for money during a war, everyone understands what that really means.

Whenever government becomes desperate for revenue. They begin with taxes. Then come special assessments, forced loans, restrictions on capital, controls over foreign exchange, and eventually increasingly creative definitions of what property actually belongs to the individual. Governments rarely wake up one morning and announce that private wealth no longer exists. They change the rules one piece at a time because the fiscal demands of the state continually expand.

This is why the rumors concerning Russian deposits are potentially more damaging than the actual withdrawals themselves. There does not have to be an official plan to confiscate deposits for the rumor to affect behavior. If enough people believe there is even a possibility that their savings could become trapped, converting a portion into cash becomes perfectly rational. Then your neighbor sees you withdrawing money and begins wondering what you know that he does not.

The Russians have been through this before. They remember the collapse of the Soviet Union, the destruction of savings through inflation, the 1998 financial crisis, repeated currency devaluations, and the banking panic surrounding the invasion in 2022. Western analysts often look at Russia through spreadsheets and completely ignore that historical memory. Russians understand from experience that governments and currencies can change far faster than politicians promise.

There is also a geopolitical consequence that the Europeans should think very carefully about. Europe froze hundreds of billions in Russian sovereign assets and openly debated using those assets to finance Ukraine. Whatever moral justification Brussels offers, every government in the world watched what happened. Russia responded with its own restrictions and seizures involving Western assets. The result is that both sides have demonstrated that property rights can become conditional when geopolitical conflict becomes severe.

Capital will always seek safety, and safety does not simply mean the highest interest rate. It means confidence that you can retrieve your money when you want it. This is precisely why capital controls always backfire over the long term. The moment government tells people they cannot move their money, it teaches everyone else to move theirs before the same restriction reaches them.

We should therefore watch Russia carefully through September. This is not merely about whether a few hundred billion rubles leave bank accounts. Russia is heading toward its September elections while the economic burden of the war is becoming increasingly visible domestically. The real question is whether these withdrawals stabilize once the immediate demand for cash subsides or whether Russians continue pulling money from the banking system because confidence itself has changed.

The government claims unemployment stands at 4.1%, yet a new analysis cited by CBS News found that 24.9% of American workers were functionally unemployed in July. Functional unemployment includes those who cannot find employment, people forced into part-time work because full-time jobs are unavailable, and workers earning less than $26,000 annually before taxes. Washington can call these people employed, but try paying rent, food, insurance, utilities, transportation, and medical expenses on barely $2,000 per month before the government takes its share.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not measuring whether people are prospering or even surviving. If you worked as little as one hour during the survey period, you can be classified as “employed.” If you have searched for months, become discouraged, and finally stop looking, the government simply removes you from the labor force. You did not find a job and your circumstances did not improve, but you cease to exist statistically. Politicians then point to the lower unemployment rate and claim their policies are working.

Functional unemployment has now risen for four consecutive months while workforce participation has moved lower. Employers reportedly eliminated 23,000 jobs in July, consumer prices rose 3.4% year over year, and wages increased only 3.2%. Therefore, the average worker lost purchasing power even after receiving a nominal raise. This is why people become angry when politicians lecture them about a strong economy. The statistics say they are employed, inflation is under control, and everything is wonderful, yet the paycheck no longer covers the monthly bills.

This is how the political establishment disguises economic decline. Inflation statistics do not reflect the actual cost of maintaining a household, GDP rises when government borrows and spends money it does not have, and unemployment declines when people surrender and stop searching for work. Every major statistic has been constructed to make government appear competent while the standard of living steadily deteriorates. They measure whether money changed hands, not whether society became wealthier.

Americans have been forced to replace income with debt. They have depleted savings, increased credit-card balances, postponed major purchases, and begun cutting necessities because discretionary spending was already eliminated. Consumer spending may represent roughly two-thirds of the economy, but consumers cannot continue spending indefinitely when prices rise faster than wages and employment becomes increasingly unstable. Credit can postpone the reckoning, but it cannot replace real economic growth.

Functional unemployment explains why Washington can proclaim prosperity while millions of Americans feel trapped in a personal recession. The economy has produced millions of positions that satisfy the government’s definition of employment but cannot provide an independent life. The political class counts the number of people receiving paychecks while refusing to ask what those paychecks can actually buy. That is poverty disguised by statistics.

COMMENT #1: Masterpiece! Many thanks Marty! Crystal clear!
RK

COMMENT #2: Marty, you must have spent your entire Sunday putting that together—and it shows. You’ve once again demonstrated exactly why your firm has offices worldwide and the largest institutional following in the business.

As for those so-called experts who brag about “calling” the 2007 crash? Please. All they did was predict a collapse would happen someday, then patted themselves on the back when it finally did. It’s almost comical.

I was on the floor in 2007. I remember when your model called the exact day—and everyone was calling it “Armstrong’s Revenge.” The reason they ignore you now? Because you make the rest of them look amateurish.

Thank you so much. That was beyond amazing.

MI

REPLY: Thank you. The real funny thing they will put in the movies, was they had me on contempt claiming $1 billion is missing from a bank when it is impossible to get that kind of money out of a bank without a wire and then you would know where it went. Not a single member of the press ever noticed that absurdity. I told Alan Cohen, the receiver and his lawyer Tanc Shiavonni,  to their face the bank stole the money. Cohen said, we believe the bank. It became clear they were trying to shut down our forecasting because the banks and hedge funds were trying to bribe their way to guaranteed trades. They invited me to the dinner they put on for the IMF to show me that they had the IMF in their back-pocket. They rented the entire Nationsl Gallery in Washington and everyone was there. I told them Russia would default and I did not care who their bribed.

To do that movie on me The Forecaster, they need insurance against possible false statements. Lloyds of London insured the film, but they had to review all the documents to prove that the whole thing was a sham. Clients came forward and offered to rent our company to keep the forecasting going. They refused and wanted the source code. Larry Edelson made that clear. That was even in writing .

People ask me why didn’t I just hand over the source code.  These people lie. If you think they would release me just turning over the source code, then they will simply kill you and call it a suicide. Philadelphia mobster Louis Turra died supposedly by suicide at the MCC.  If you have a high profile case that would expose the government, they are the ones that end in suicide like Epstein. Do you think he would get a trial calling Bill Clinton to the stand? This is why all you hear about is justice for the girls, not that they were paid in a blackmail scheme. The number of people who supposedly commit suicide in NYC are never honestly investigated.

If I gave them the source code they would have suicided me without question. This was a stand-off. There was no way. I couldn’t give in and survive. Besides that, I was not about to hand them the source code and they then share that with the bankers.

In my case, I got into the Supreme Court and they ordered the government to explain. They tried to kill me, but I survived, and then released me from contempt and told the Supreme Court I was no longer in contempt so the case was moot.

Many assume that near-death experiences completely alter a person’s views regardless of how devout they may have been. I can say after the attempt on my life that I survived, to their dismay, when I awoke from a coma days later; it did change me, but not in the way people assume. In my case, it took the fear of death from me rather than making me more afraid of death. But it also strengthened me as I knew my purpose was to stand up and fight.

There has been a recent review of the research into near-death experiences. The most common result seems to be a loss of fear of death, a reinvigorated sense of purpose, and increased compassion for others. Where I had restricted our services mainly to institutional pre-1999, it did make me realize that to create world change for the better; I had to share what I had learned and try to demonstrate to the world that there is a better way if we live with the cycle instead of trying to manipulate it for political gain.

During the 2007 Crash, I was in contact with the House Financial Services Committee. I believe the banks/hedge funds had me thrown in the hole to cut off my communications with Congress because I was the only one they could turn to since I had the same level of experience and knew the game. Congress sent a letter demanding who and why I was thrown in the hole and they freaked out and took me out in the blink of an eye.

The movie people filed a FOIA to get records of all the banks and hedge funds that went to them to have us shut down. They replied that they didn’t have any records on me anymore.

My Battle Against the Market Manipulators Has never ended

I wrote when Epstein was thrown in the hole, the only question was would he commit suicide before or after a plea. Jeffrey Epstein was in league with Robert Maxwell. The two men were deeply connected. Robert Maxwell, a British media tycoon, was the father of Ghislaine Maxwell, who became Epstein’s close associate and is accused of recruiting girls for him.

Why would your girlfriend solicit girls to have sex with your boyfriend? Believe that one and aliens constructed the Pyramids. The connection goes beyond family ties. Robert Maxwell, was working in Israeli intelligence, and recruited Epstein himself. The whole girl thing was to blackmail “clients” for they were all people who had some political advantage. Epstein was connected to powerful figures solely for a honey trap.

Maxwell was part of the manipulation club. According to Epstein, he was killed for blackmailing Israel to cover his losses. Maxwell funded the coup against Gorbachev led by Valdimir Kryuchlov. The deal was that all the Jews in the old USSR would be free to migrate to Israel. There was no way they could let Epstein go to trial. This is why they cannot peruse any client because then the entire sham would be exposed and what they did in this blackmail scheme.

The coup failed, Yeltsin stood on the tank and the army stood down. Then the Neocons tried to blackmail Yeltsin. They wanted me to put in $10 billion promising I would get back $100 billion after they installed Berezovsky as the new president and all commodities would then trade through the NY dealing desks. I refused, Yeltsin turned to Putin and his last words were. “Protect mother Russia.” Yeltsin was besieged by the Neocons blackmailing and over the Bank of New York wire, and the Communists were filing impeachment motions to seize control of Russia.

This why the Neocons hate Putin so much because he stopped their takeover of Russia. The company they wanted me to fund was Hermitage Capital Management. That is the company formed by Edmond Safra and Bill Browder. That is the company that Putin seized. This is why Putin wanted to question Bill Browder and why Bill Browder runs around and claims Putin in the richest man in the world and all the other propaganda aside from being anti-Trump because he won’t invade Russia.

We are all connected. You have to see the world as a whole. Trying to forecast anything in isolation is a recipe for disaster.

China and Egypt had their second joint air force exercise, “Eagles of Civilization 2026,” running from mid-August into early September. The exercises include air combat tactics, air superiority operations, combat search and rescue, and force employment. This follows their first joint air exercise in 2025, so this is no longer some ceremonial visit between two countries posing for photographs. China is establishing a military relationship with Egypt at the same time that the economic relationship between the two nations is expanding rapidly.

This is what Washington never seems to understand. Trade and geopolitical influence go hand in hand. China does not need to invade countries to expand its influence. It builds ports, factories, railroads, industrial zones, financial relationships, and trade routes. Military cooperation naturally begins to follow economic cooperation because countries tend to develop strategic relationships with the nations upon which their economies increasingly depend.

Egypt is particularly important because of the Suez Canal. You cannot look at this merely as China conducting another military exercise in Africa. Egypt sits at the intersection of Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East while controlling one of the most important commercial waterways in the world. China understands geography. The Suez Canal is critical to the movement of Chinese goods into Europe, and Beijing has spent years developing its economic presence around the canal.

China and Egypt conducted roughly $16 billion in bilateral trade in 2024, and Egyptian officials say more than 2,800 Chinese companies are operating in the country with investments exceeding $8 billion. The China-Egypt TEDA cooperation zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone has become an important industrial base, with Chinese companies manufacturing inside Egypt rather than simply shipping Chinese goods through the canal. Half of the roughly $11.6 billion attracted to the Suez Canal Economic Zone over the previous three and a half years reportedly came from China.

This is where China is outmaneuvering the West. The United States looks at Egypt primarily through military aid and Middle East geopolitics. Europe sees Egypt through migration and the Mediterranean. China looks at Egypt and sees a commercial gateway connecting three continents.

Chinese companies are already producing goods in Egypt for export throughout the Middle East and Africa. Xinxing, for example, began operating a factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone and quickly signed tens of millions of dollars in export contracts covering projects in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, and Tunisia. China is effectively using Egypt as a manufacturing platform to reach markets far beyond Egypt itself.

That is the Belt and Road strategy in practice. It is not simply lending money to poor countries to build roads, as Western critics constantly portray it. China is attempting to establish commercial infrastructure along the arteries of world trade. Once companies, factories, ports, financing, and supply chains become interconnected, political influence follows.

The financial relationship is also moving in a direction Washington should be paying attention to. Egypt and China have signed agreements promoting greater use of the yuan, including connecting financial institutions operating around the Suez economic zone with China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. Egypt has also issued Panda bonds in China. China is playing the long game.

Now military cooperation is following the economic relationship. The first Eagles of Civilization exercise in 2025 was unprecedented. Conducting it again in 2026 demonstrates that both sides want this relationship to continue. Beijing says the exercises are intended to increase mutual trust and deepen military cooperation. Egypt gains access to another major military power while reducing its dependence upon any single foreign supplier or security relationship.

Can you blame Egypt? The United States has spent decades turning foreign policy into a loyalty test. Governments are expected to choose Washington or Beijing, Washington or Moscow, Washington or Tehran. Egypt does not have to make that choice. It can maintain military relations with the United States while conducting exercises with China and trading with everyone.

Egypt’s geographic position makes such diversification entirely rational. It sits beside Libya, Sudan, Gaza, Israel, and the Red Sea while the Middle East has entered another period of tremendous instability. Why would Cairo place its national security entirely in the hands of Washington when American policy changes every four years depending upon who occupies the White House?

China offers Egypt something different. Beijing has generally built these relationships through commerce first, financing infrastructure, developing ports, establishing factories, expanding trade, and creating financial connections that gradually deepen the economic relationship. Diplomatic and military cooperation can then follow naturally where their interests overlap. China does not need to demand allegiance when it can make itself commercially valuable.

The West increasingly takes the opposite approach, arriving with sanctions, political conditions, lectures about domestic affairs, demands over foreign policy, and threats to withdraw assistance when governments refuse to comply. Nations are then treated as adversaries simply because they choose to pursue their own interests rather than those of Washington or Brussels. This is a major reason the geopolitical landscape is changing as developing nations discover they have alternatives and no longer need to accept every condition imposed by the West.

Egypt controls one of the greatest trade arteries on Earth while China is the world’s manufacturing giant. Their expanding relationship is hardly an accident, and it will become increasingly important as the old geopolitical divisions between East and West continue to fracture.

The West suddenly discovered that Brazil is sitting on one of the most strategic mineral reserves in the world. The Associated Press reports that Brazil has the second-largest known rare-earth reserves behind China, and foreign interests are now rushing into the country as governments desperately attempt to break China’s grip on the supply chain. More than 86% of Brazil’s rare-earth exploration applications were filed within the last three years, and over 40% have foreign financial backing. This is what happens when governments wake up decades too late to the importance of commodities.

China understood long ago that control of natural resources and their processing is a form of geopolitical power. The West abandoned mining and manufacturing, imposed endless environmental regulations, and outsourced production to Asia because politicians assumed globalization would last forever. China was happy to take the business. Today it controls roughly 90% of global rare-earth processing, and Beijing has already demonstrated that it is prepared to use that position when geopolitical tensions rise.

Rare earths are essential for electronics, automobiles, aerospace, robotics, energy technology, and modern weapons systems. Washington suddenly realizes that depending on China for materials necessary to manufacture military equipment is a national security problem. American and Australian interests are therefore pouring into Brazil, while Brazil’s only commercial rare-earth producer, Serra Verde, has been acquired by a U.S.-backed company. The West is now scrambling to recreate supply chains it voluntarily surrendered.

Brazil would be foolish not to recognize the tremendous leverage it now possesses. President Lula has made clear that he does not intend to allow foreigners simply to extract Brazil’s resources and take the valuable processing elsewhere. Brazil wants the refining, technology, and industrial development to remain inside the country. That is precisely what China did successfully. China did not become powerful simply because it possessed minerals. It built the processing capacity and then moved up the industrial chain until everyone else became dependent upon it.

This is where Brazil has an opportunity that commodity-producing nations have repeatedly squandered. Digging something out of the ground and exporting it creates revenue, but processing it and converting it into finished products creates industry. The British Empire understood that distinction. So did the United States during its rise as an industrial power. The countries that merely supplied raw materials remained dependent upon those that controlled manufacturing and finance.

The AP found that roughly one-quarter of the exploration applications overlap with or are located within about 10 kilometers of protected areas and Indigenous territories. Rare-earth production can create serious environmental problems involving toxic waste and water contamination. These are legitimate concerns, particularly around the Amazon, but the same Western governments that spent years lecturing Brazil about environmental protection are now desperate for alternative sources because they allowed China to dominate the industry.

The green movement never wanted to discuss where all these materials would come from. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, batteries, computers, and virtually every technology promoted under the so-called energy transition require enormous quantities of raw materials. Politicians pretended they could shut down mines and industry at home while simultaneously transforming the entire energy system. They merely exported the environmental consequences to other countries and then claimed they had become environmentally responsible.

Brazil is now caught directly between Washington and Beijing, but it does not have to choose either side. This is what the geopolitical establishment in Washington constantly fails to understand. Brazil should deal with China when that benefits Brazil and deal with the United States when that benefits Brazil. It is not Brazil’s responsibility to sacrifice its economic interests because Washington decided China is suddenly an adversary after spending decades encouraging American companies to move production there.

The rise of BRICS is part of this broader shift. Many emerging nations possess the commodities, energy, agricultural capacity, and growing populations that the developed world increasingly needs. They are no longer willing to accept the old arrangement where the West dictates policy while expecting unrestricted access to their resources. Brazil has food, energy, minerals, and an enormous domestic market. That gives it negotiating power that will only increase as the world fragments into competing geopolitical blocs.

China’s dominance of rare earths did not happen overnight. It was the result of decades of Western policy mistakes combined with deliberate Chinese industrial planning. Now Washington is spending billions attempting to reverse something it helped create. Brazil should certainly welcome investment, but it should not simply become America’s replacement mine for China.

The world is moving away from globalization and back toward economic nationalism. Governments are discovering that access to energy, food, metals, and strategic minerals cannot simply be assumed. Brazil happens to possess something everyone suddenly needs, and that places it in an extremely powerful position between China and the West. The question is whether Brazil will simply sell its resources or use this opportunity to build the industrial capacity that could transform its position in the world economy for decades to come.

Tens of thousands of people in northwest Indiana have been living without electricity for more than a week, yet this disaster received little national attention until residents had already entered what they described as “survival mode.” The blackout began after an August 11 derecho produced winds approaching 99 miles per hour, destroying power lines, transmission equipment, and utility poles across the region. More than 300,000 NIPSCO customers initially lost service, representing over 60% of the utility’s system and the largest outage event in its history. As of August 20, approximately 68,000 customers reportedly remained without power, with parts of Gary warned that full restoration could take until August 25.

This is not merely an inconvenience caused by a summer storm. Schools have closed, businesses have lost inventory and revenue, families have thrown away spoiled food, and people who depend upon refrigerated medicine or electrically powered medical equipment have been placed at risk. Traffic signals stopped working, communications were interrupted, and residents were forced to line up at community centers for hot meals and a place to charge their phones.

The national media will discuss an outage when it affects an airport, Wall Street, or a wealthy neighborhood. When working-class communities in Gary and Lake County lose power for more than a week, the story remains largely local until the suffering becomes impossible to ignore. There has been reporting, but the scale of the national response bears no relationship to the severity of what happened. If 68,000 customers in Manhattan had remained without electricity for nine days, every network would be broadcasting live from the streets and Congress would already be demanding hearings.

NIPSCO says the damage was unprecedented and that crews must replace or repair approximately 300 distribution poles and 44 transmission poles in Gary alone. More than 600 line workers have reportedly been involved in restoration efforts. Nobody should diminish the severity of a derecho with hurricane-force winds, nor blame crews working in dangerous conditions. The problem is that a natural disaster has exposed how little redundancy exists in the system. When a single series of storms can knock out electricity to most of a utility’s customers and leave tens of thousands disconnected for more than a week, the grid has become a single point of failure for the entire community.

America has built an economy in which virtually nothing functions without electricity. Food cannot be preserved, fuel pumps cannot operate, electronic payments fail, mobile phones eventually die, and many modern appliances become useless. Hospitals and emergency facilities possess backup generators, but ordinary households and small businesses are expected to fend for themselves. The government promotes the electrification of vehicles, heating, cooking, and transportation while the grid required to support this dependence remains vulnerable to trees, flooding, aging poles, overloaded transformers, and severe weather.

The American Society of Civil Engineers has repeatedly identified the country’s energy infrastructure as requiring massive investment. Much of the national transmission and distribution network was constructed decades ago for a completely different economy. Demand is now increasing from data centers, electric vehicles, manufacturing, air conditioning, and the attempt to electrify still more activities. The government cannot simultaneously increase dependence upon electricity and ignore the physical system that distributes it. That is not an energy transition; it is building society around a vulnerability.

Wealthier households can purchase whole-home generators, battery systems, hotel rooms, and replacement food. A low-income family may lose hundreds of dollars in groceries and have no money to replace them. An hourly worker may lose wages because a workplace or school is closed. Parents must choose between remaining home with children and reporting to work. Insurance deductibles can exceed the value of the property destroyed, while public assistance often arrives after the immediate crisis has passed.

Governor Mike Braun declared a statewide disaster emergency, deployed the Indiana National Guard, and requested federal assistance after the storms caused deaths, flooding, displacement, and widespread infrastructure damage. Those measures are necessary, but emergency declarations address the aftermath rather than the underlying vulnerability. The political system operates from crisis to crisis because preventive investment requires planning beyond the next election. Money is found instantly after disaster strikes, but routine maintenance is treated as an expense to be postponed.

This blackout should also raise serious questions about accountability. Regulators must determine whether maintenance, vegetation management, emergency staffing, spare-equipment inventories, and system redundancy were adequate before the storm. That inquiry should not become an attempt to scapegoat line workers or pretend that no storm should ever cause an outage. The relevant question is why restoration for an urban area can require nearly two weeks and whether the system was prepared for an event that severe-weather models have long treated as possible.

Ancient cities protected their wells because water represented survival. Industrial society must treat electricity with the same seriousness. A power grid is not merely another corporate service. It is the infrastructure supporting food, health, banking, transportation, communications, public safety, and employment. When it fails for days, civilization quickly contracts to generators, canned food, cash, and neighbors helping one another.

Indiana was struck by an extreme storm, but the prolonged blackout is a warning to every American city. The country is increasing electricity demand while its transmission and distribution systems remain fragile, centralized, and expensive to repair. Politicians speak endlessly about creating the grid of the future while residents in Gary are waiting for the grid of the present to turn their lights back on. The storm caused the blackout, but years of neglect determined how difficult it would be to recover.

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