Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Britain has become a textbook example of what happens when politicians believe capital is imprisoned by geography. Billionaire hedge fund manager Chris Rokos is leaving the UK and moving his tax residency to Greece. This is a man who reportedly paid about £330 million in British taxes last year, ranking him among the country’s largest individual taxpayers. He also pledged £190 million to Cambridge University. Britain should be asking how to keep people like this. Instead, government keeps looking at successful people as if they are nothing more than an ATM that cannot walk away.

Greece understands something London has apparently forgotten. Capital goes where it is treated best. Greece offers qualifying wealthy newcomers a flat €100,000 annual tax on foreign-source income for as long as 15 years, provided they satisfy the requirements, including a substantial investment in Greece. Foreign assets can also receive favorable inheritance-tax treatment. Athens has now gone even further to attract the financial industry, introducing a 5% tax on bonuses and carried interest for qualifying private-equity and hedge-fund executives who relocate as part of substantial Greek operations. Britain has been moving in precisely the opposite direction.

This is not some abstract economic theory. Rokos reportedly paid himself £477 million last year and handed roughly £330 million to the British taxman. Now Greece gets the wealthy resident, potentially an Athens office, employees, spending, investment, property purchases, and all the economic activity that follows capital. Britain gets to congratulate itself for being “fair” while watching one of its largest taxpayers leave. Politicians never understand that the objective should be to expand the tax base, not destroy it.

Foreign income and gains become exposed to UK taxation after the new four-year window, and longer-term residents can also bring worldwide assets into the inheritance-tax net. Meanwhile, Britain already has a 45% top income-tax rate in England, and carried interest is taxed far above Greece’s new preferential 5% rate for qualifying executives. Then politicians float wealth taxes and wonder why wealthy people start calling Athens, Milan, Dubai, and Switzerland.

This is exactly how capital flight begins. It does not require people loading gold onto ships in the middle of the night. Today capital is electronic and international. A hedge fund manager can change residency, establish another office, move key employees, redirect investment, and eventually move an entire ecosystem around him. Governments remain trapped in this medieval idea that because somebody became wealthy in Britain, Britain somehow owns that person forever. It does not.

The socialists always imagine they can make the rich “pay their fair share.” Fine. Rokos paid approximately £330 MILLION in one year. How much more constitutes his fair share? According to one estimate raised in Parliament, replacing that tax contribution would require the income taxes of roughly 38,000 average workers. When somebody paying hundreds of millions leaves, government does not magically collect the same money from an empty chair. The burden ultimately shifts toward everyone who cannot leave.

Greece is doing what governments SHOULD do when they need investment: compete for it. Athens wants these people to actually establish operations there, which is why the new financial sector incentives include requirements intended to ensure that firms have a genuine economic presence.

Britain is suffering from the same disease spreading throughout Western Europe. Debt keeps rising, government refuses to seriously reduce itself, and therefore politicians constantly need another source of revenue. They raise taxes because reforming government is politically difficult. When revenues disappoint, they raise taxes again. Eventually confidence breaks and productive capital begins leaving. Then the remaining taxpayers must carry an even greater burden.

Greece was the poster child of the European sovereign debt crisis not long ago. Now Greece is standing at the door welcoming capital while Britain is effectively showing it the exit. That should embarrass every politician in Westminster. You cannot tax a nation into prosperity, and you cannot confiscate capital that has already bought a ticket to Athens.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has now suggested that Germany could provide Kyiv with information on Ukrainian men of military age living inside Germany. His words were revealing: “We know who lives here.” Of course they do. The government knows who receives benefits, who has registered an address, and who holds a residence permit. These men escaped Ukraine believing Europe was offering them sanctuary from a war. Now Germany is openly discussing using the information collected on those refugees to help Zelensky’s government find them.

Wadephul claims nobody should be sent back “under coercion.” Wonderful. Then why does Kyiv need their information? Ukraine already prevents most military-age men subject to mobilization rules from simply leaving the country, subject to various exemptions, because Zelensky desperately needs bodies for the front. We have all seen reports of the forced mobilization confrontations inside Ukraine. Men have been stopped in public places and confronted by recruitment officers while videos of violent encounters have circulated for years. Kyiv has repeatedly tightened mobilization because it cannot manufacture young men the way Europe can manufacture another billion euros.

Now the net may be expanding beyond Ukraine. The European Commission has already proposed that Ukrainian men who were not legally permitted to leave because of military obligations should not automatically receive temporary protection if they arrive in the EU. Think about what that means. Europe spent years proclaiming that Ukrainians were fleeing for their lives and that Europe had a moral obligation to protect them. Apparently that promise comes with an expiration date if Zelensky needs more men.

This is why I have called them cannon fodder. Zelensky is not going to the front. The politicians in Brussels are not going to the front. Their sons are not being grabbed and sent into trenches. They sit behind desks talking about defending democracy “for as long as it takes” because somebody else’s children are doing the dying. Ukraine has a manpower problem that another weapons package cannot solve. You can print money. You can manufacture artillery shells. You cannot print another generation of Ukrainian men.

Wadephul was simultaneously complaining that Ukraine was not buying enough weapons from German manufacturers. Germany sends billions to Ukraine, Ukraine buys weapons, and now Germany discusses helping Kyiv locate military-age Ukrainian men. The defense industry gets another customer, politicians get another speech about democracy, and some Ukrainian kid gets a rifle and a trench. This is what war looks like when the people running it have absolutely no personal risk whatsoever.

Many of these men went to Germany precisely because they wanted nothing to do with this insanity. They were promised safety in Europe. They established homes, found jobs, registered with governments, and trusted that the information they provided would be used to administer their residency rather than potentially assist Kyiv in contacting them over military service. Now those same databases could become useful to the government they escaped. You cannot call yourself a sanctuary and then start discussing handing over information on the refugees when their government needs more soldiers.

The neocons wanted their proxy war against Russia, and Europe went along with it like obedient fools. Every failed strategy required another weapons package. Every battlefield setback required another billion. Every shortage of soldiers required another mobilization. Nobody in government ever admits the policy itself has failed. They simply demand more money, more weapons, and eventually more human beings.

Europe should be demanding negotiations before another generation of Ukrainians is destroyed. Instead, politicians who promised to save Ukraine are reaching the point where they may help Zelensky locate the very Ukrainian men who fled the slaughter. Today Wadephul tells us there will be no coercion. Fine. Remember those words. Governments always begin by saying something is voluntary. The moment the manpower crisis becomes desperate enough, the definition of “voluntary” has a remarkable tendency to change.

This is no longer about saving Ukraine. You do not save a nation by bleeding its young men dry. You do not defend freedom by trapping men inside their own country and then looking abroad for those who escaped. Zelensky needs bodies because this war has consumed an entire generation, and the European political establishment refuses to admit that its strategy has failed. They promised these men refuge. Now they know their names, they know where they live, and they are discussing helping Kyiv reach them. If that does not disturb you, then you have learned absolutely nothing from history.

Marine Le Pen has finally said what European leaders are terrified to admit: there must be an end to this perpetual blank check for Ukraine. She has called for France to stop further military and financial aid to Kyiv if she comes to power and return to what statesmen were once supposed to do when wars became catastrophic: negotiate. Le Pen has called for a “major peace conference” aimed at bringing a diplomatic conclusion to what she rightly calls “this horrific war.” Naturally, the establishment immediately screams that stopping the money means helping Putin. That is their answer to everything. Anyone who dares suggest peace has suddenly become an agent of Russia.

France has absolutely no obligation to finance this war indefinitely while its own people are being told that government finances are collapsing and sacrifices must be made at home. France has provided roughly €26 billion in overall support to Ukraine since 2022, while Paris continues committing itself to Ukraine’s military buildup. The French government itself says more than €471 million has gone specifically toward humanitarian assistance as of July 1, 2026.

The establishment insists that Ukraine’s security is France’s security. Édouard Philippe attacked Le Pen’s position and claimed ending aid would mean “serving Russia.” This is the childish mentality that has prevented any serious discussion of peace. There are only two choices in their world: keep paying for the war or you love Putin.

This is where these people have lost all sense of humanity. What good has perpetual war done for the Ukrainian people? Cities have been destroyed, families scattered across Europe, millions displaced, and an entire generation of men has been fed into a conflict that political leaders refuse to bring to an end. Ukraine has been forced to continually tighten mobilization because there are not enough men willing or available to keep this going forever. Men subject to military obligations have faced restrictions on leaving the country. Europe is now even debating how military-age Ukrainians abroad should be treated while Germany’s foreign minister has suggested sharing information that could allow Kyiv to contact Ukrainian men living there regarding military service.

You do not save a country by wiping out its youth. You do not save a nation by destroying its demographic future. You do not defend democracy by telling Ukrainian men they cannot leave while politicians safely sitting in Paris, Brussels, London, and Berlin demand that the war continue. Every Ukrainian killed is somebody’s son, father, husband, or brother. Yet these politicians discuss human beings like inventory. Another weapons package. Another mobilization. Another billion. Another year.

National Rally MP Laurent Jacobelli put it plainly: “We stand with Ukraine, but not at the expense of France’s financial health (…), of our debt and the taxes paid by the French people,” RN MP Laurent Jacobelli said on Saturday. “At a time when the French are being asked to make sacrifices on pensions and healthcare, when France is on the brink of bankruptcy, we cannot put our country’s future at risk.”

The European political establishment has spent years pretending that peace means surrender because admitting otherwise would require acknowledging the catastrophic consequences of its own policies. They believed sanctions would collapse Russia. They believed endless weapons would produce victory. They believed economic warfare would force Moscow to its knees. Instead, the war continues, Ukraine continues needing enormous outside financing, and Europe continues digging deeper into its own pockets.

Now Ukraine says it needs another €27 billion just to close a defense-funding gap in 2026, while it is also securing around 1,000 Patriot missiles with allied support and an EU loan. Where does this end? That is the question nobody wants to answer. Another €27 billion? Another thousand missiles? Another hundred thousand men? Another five years? At what point is someone permitted to say that perhaps diplomacy deserves as much effort as finding the next weapons package?

Le Pen is right to demand that France change course. France should be using whatever influence it possesses to drag both sides toward a negotiating table, not endlessly writing checks that perpetuate the battlefield. That is not pro-Russian. It is pro-French and, frankly, far more humane toward the Ukrainian people than pretending another generation can simply be sacrificed until politicians finally get the outcome they promised years ago. Peace is not weakness. The refusal even to pursue it while other people’s children die is cowardice.

QUESTION: I know you have said you disagree with the whole tariff war. I believe you also said when you were here in Calgary, there was no way even Alberta could or should become the 51st state. Would you comment on this latest post of Trump draping the American flag over all of North America?

EP

ANSWER: This whole 51st state nonsense is just unrealistic. If Alberta became the 51st State, it would disrupt politics for then they would get two senators and untold congressmen. The Democrats would demand Puerto Rico and Guam be allowed to become states along with Washington DC. If somehow all of Canada and Mexico became part of the United States, who knows what that would disrupt politically. I suspect it might benefit the Democrats more than the Republicans. I could threaten to flee to Aruba anymore.

So, is Trump just poking fun at Carney? If he spoke to the State Department, they would surely be screaming are you insane! I’m not sure this could be serious even on Trump’s part. The process for a territory to become a state is established by the U.S. Constitution and granted specifically to Congress, not the president.

The specific authority is found in Article IV, Section 3 of the Constitution. This section is often referred to as the “Admissions Clause” and states that “no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State…without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.”

Therefore, Trump I believe is having fun and he has to know that his meme is absolutely impossible. It seems to be more of a dig at Carney, but it was Trump’s rhetoric of making Canada the 51st State that got Carney elected in the first place. This tariff war is absurd and there is NO RESOLUTION that will benefit both sides anymore. We do not know the demands that actually broke the deal since both sides point at the other. I can say that Carney’s claim that the deal would restrict Canada’s sovereignty by limiting its ability to strike trade deals with other countries is really dodgy. That is the #1 way people circumvent tariffs and trade restrictions. You cut off trade with a given country so they cut a deal with Canada and the products appear to then be Canadian.

Chinese companies have been setting up plants in Mexico, and this strategy is widely seen as a way to circumvent U.S. trade barriers. Mexico’s location and its trade agreement with the U.S. make it an attractive “nearshoring” destination for Chinese manufacturers. I helped Japan to reduce its trade surplus buying gold in NYC, exporting to London to resell and this revolving door worked.

If Carney really killed the deal claiming this impeded on Canada’s sovereignty, I cannot believe he really believed that when in fact that is the #1 way to circumvent trade issues used by everyone.

If we examine the numbers, Canada did have a trade deficit in 2025. The data shows that its merchandise trade deficit widened significantly over the course of the year. For 2025, the annual merchandise trade deficit was C$31.3 billion. This was the largest annual shortfall since 2020 and a substantial increase from the C$7.2 billion deficit recorded in 2024. Focusing on just the USA & Canada, in U.S. dollar terms, Canada had a trade surplus with the USA in 2025 of about $50 billion. This implies that others are importing goods into Canda creating their trade deficit overall, but are then selling then to the USA creating the trade surplus with the USA.

Chinese-made goods are shipped to Canada, relabeled as Canadian, and exported to the United States without sufficient processing to change their country of origin. This is customs fraud if it is done to evade U.S. tariffs. U.S. and Canadian authorities have both acknowledged that this occurs, although its overall scale is difficult to measure. Recently, U.S. officials have stepped up scrutiny of alleged transshipment. The White House has claimed that rerouting goods through third countries—including Canada—is costing billions of dollars in lost tariff revenue, and U.S. Customs has increased enforcement efforts using AI and other investigative tools.

Carney may think he is defending Canada on this issue, but an all out trade war with the USA will also reduced the imports from other countries to circumvent trade restrictions. This is part of the problem.

Trump’s taunting Canada as the 51st State does not help matters when it is impossible anyway. Then there is the very issue of tariffs and jobs. This is a Marxist philosophy but overpaying people to keep jobs means the people are subsidizing jobs overpaying people who should get another job. You do NOT grow a head of lettuce in the Saudi desert importing war and top soil so the cost is $10 a head when you can buy it from someone else got 50 cents. You do NOT make American Great Again by bringing back overpaid jobs.

Detroit destroyed its auto industry like Mandami assuming they had endless revenues that they could tax. Not one auto manufacturer was left by 1937 in Detroit. They did not leave because of cheaper labor. They left because of taxes.

NYC was once the largest port in the USA. Between taxes, regulation, and corrupt unions, they chased everyone out to other ports. Until we look at the REAL reasons manufacture left, you cannot bring these back to America and they are exploited by progressives like Mandami. JP Morgan now employs more people outside of NYC and the financial Wall Street is abandoning NYC all because of Mandami. NYC will be a shadow of itself by 2030.

COMMENT: Marty, you’ve been saying on these podcasts that Iran won’t wave the white flag, because they see a chance at reverse regime change with the midterms and Netanyahu in October. Trump has just admitted that gas prices won’t come down before the midterms and that Iran won’t surrender. He’s changed his tune. Somebody in the White House is listening and got him to change his tune.

You do have more influence than you realize.

GD

REPLY: Perhaps. I can’t believe nobody figured this out months ago.

QUESTION: Marty, Bessent is plainly no trader. As you’ve pointed out, he’s spent far too long in the company of market manipulators. I remember your warning that rolling debt into shorter maturities only deepens future fragility. And as you put it, it’s Groundhog Day on repeat. So the question is: does this bring us closer to Socrates’ prophecy of even higher rates?

SK

ANSWER: This is a dumb move. With war circling around like vultures waiting for the carcas to die for a free meal, the Bessent announced that the federal government will buy back up to $6 billion of its bonds this week three times its normal operations, which is really stupid, in a braindead theory that it will rein in longer-term borrowing costs.

This is OpEd I wrote for the Wall Street Journal back on April 19, 1995, was about the same gimmick where President Clinton (1993-2001) was able to balance the budge was (1) the economy recovered in 1994 with capital pouring into the United States as it fled South East Asia resulting in the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997, (2) US Interest rates rose sharply in 1994 attracting huge capital inflows including those from Japan, and (3) he shortened the maturity of the debt funding it short-term to cut interest expenditure.

The National Debt rose from $4,064.6 billion in 1992 to $5,807.5 billion by 2001. The rate of growth was slowed by the shift in funding. Interest rates at the Fed dropped by 6.5% in 2000 to 1.75% in 2001. When Clinton took office the Fed Discount Rate stood at 3.5%. The rise began in 1994 that helped to attract foreign capital, especially from Japan, and it peaked in 2000 with the Dot Com Bubble on the heels of the 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle that followed the collapse of Russian debt.

Based on the most recent data available, the amount of long-term U.S. Treasury debt (20-year and 30-year bonds) outstanding was approximately $5.5 trillion as of July 31, 2026. This is little more than 13% of the total. Here is the problem. The more you shift the debt short-term, it becomes much more volatile and with war, the rates can explode and this will send the interest expenditures up dramatic crowding out other spending and when the Democrats get back in, they will demand raping anyone who earns more than the poverty level with higher taxes as if that is ever a long-term solution.

The debt instruments outstanding are:

Treasury Bills (T-Bills): Short-term securities with maturities of one year or less (e.g., 4, 8, 13, 26, and 52 weeks). They are funded by being sold at a discount to their face value; the investor’s return is the difference between the purchase price and the face value received at maturity, meaning they do not pay a periodic coupon. (outstanding $6.99 trillion).

Treasury Notes (T-Notes): Medium-term securities with maturities from 2 to 10 years (e.g., 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years). They are funded by paying a fixed interest rate (coupon) every six months until maturity. (T-Notes represent about 52% of all outstanding debt about $30.2 trillion).

Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds): Long-term securities with maturities of more than 10 years, currently issued as 20-year and 30-year bonds. They are funded by paying a fixed interest rate (coupon) every six months. (outstanding $5.5 trillion).

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): These are medium to long-term securities (5, 10, and 30 years). They are funded differently, as their principal is adjusted based on inflation (CPI-U). They pay a fixed interest rate twice a year, but the payment amount changes with the inflation-adjusted principal. (outstanding $39.8 billion).

Floating Rate Notes (FRNs): These are 2-year notes whose interest rate is not fixed. Their funding mechanism involves a variable interest rate that is reset weekly, based on the most recent 13-week Treasury bill auction rate plus a fixed spread. (outstanding $600 billion).

The Buy Back

Look, the buy back of $6 billion amounts to .001%. This is again a CONFIDENCE game attempting to manipulate the market with a lot of hot air. As I have said, the 30-year has formidable resistance at 5.5%. A failure to close about that level warns we can have a knee-jerk reaction to the down side, but this will be caused by a rush of capital inflows because of war as capital flees the geopolitical epic-centers. However, that will not last beyond 2027. Inflation will rise because the real crisis is not in crude oil but in the refined products thanks to the madman of Ukraine, Zelensky attacking Russian refineries. As debts become exponential post 2027, rate will rise and the prospect of war becomes a reality and governments NEVER have any intention of ever paying off what they borrow. Shifting debts short-term make the roll costs exceptionally higher. We do we borrow with no intention of paying anything back? This is the way ALL governments function with no rational reasoning behind this stupidity. The press loves to bash the US and ignore the sovereign crisis which has reach about $350+ trillion worldwide. This is what 2032 is all about.

QUESTION: Marty, care to comment of your old adversary Bessent and his latest boast “I am the house” warning traders not to bet against him? They called you Mr. Yen and Milton Friedman called you the World’s Ambassador. Socrates seems to take issue with Bessent. They never learn.

K

ANSWER: He is trying to use his position to manipulate markets as usual. This is why these people hated me because they judged me by themselves. I would say they would lose, and when they did, they claimed I had greater influence than all the bribes they could pay. They even had the CFTC file a subpoena demanding I turn over a list of all my clients so they could prove I was manipulating the world economy. My lawyer asked where is the statute that says I could not manipulate the entire world? The judge laughed and threw that out of court. They lobbied to to try to shut down our forecasting because they try to bribe everyone for the guaranteed trade when I was the only real trader.

The dollar has risen against the yen for 15 years. Bessent thinks for trade purposes that he can talk the dollar down. Well, they tried that in 1985 and blew the world up when the G7 stood up and claimed that was it, the dollar fell far enough. As soon as the dollar fell lower, the world saw that the G7 could NOT dictate to the world what value a currency should be. When they even came out at the Plaza Accord, the trend had already turned on the dollar. They did NOT change its direction.

I wrote to President Reagan and I warned that they would cause a crase within 2 years. They laughed because they had the power, or so they thought. When the crash came in 1987, they were forced to call me in. I had to keep the staff late so we could have advice for President Reagan and what to say. The capital flows went crazy and the Japanese dumped dollar assets when the dollar continued lower after the Louvre Accord pronouncement that the dollar had fallen far enough. They were wrong, and we got the crash.

Robert Rubin was doing the same thing in 1997. I wrote to him on May 28th, 1997 and warned him he too would cause a crash. At least he responded to me. I wrote to Bessent but old grudges never die. He did NOT respond. They refuse to admit just maybe I created a computer that actually works and it was not my personal influence. Admitting that means they have been wrong for decades.

The Asian Currency Crisis began on schedule a few weeks later. While they do not like me because they always prove to be wrong, China called me in and I flew to Bejing to meet with the central bank. They respected my computer and announced that they have adopted “capital flow analysis.” When I got back, people from the Treasury and the Fed called and wanted to know my opinion since I was the first American to be called in by the People’s Bank of China. I said it was interesting. Everyone I had met were TRADERS who had been sent to work on dealing desks in NY, London, Tokyo, and returned to run the bank. My comment was, they ONLY hired people with experience.

So here we go again. The support on the yen for the close of 2026 lies at 154.20 while closing resistance stands at 160. The yen can move to 366 against the dollar by the Panic Cycle for 2030. The mere fact that Bessent is trying to talk the dollar down against the yen PROVES the underlying trend in motion. Like the Louvre Accord, making a public statement like this when you are the Treasury instead to manipulating markets with a herd of hedge funds back then is substantially different. When he is proven wrong, the world will lose confidence in his or any government’s ability to manipulate society, which is why they are all at least worship Marx in the closet who knighted them as the mover and shakers of the world at will endorsed by Keynes.

A 3rd Time Will Not Be the Charm

How desperate must a government become before it considers taxing pornography to purchase drones for a war it cannot win? Ukraine is now reportedly considering legalizing parts of its adult entertainment industry to generate additional tax revenue for the war against Russia. Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak estimates legalization could bring around $25 million annually into the government’s coffers, enough, he claims, to purchase up to 30,000 drones. The legislation has already passed its first reading in parliament and awaits further consideration. Zelensky has agreed that parliament should consider the proposal after a petition supporting reform attracted more than 25,000 signatures.

You cannot make this stuff up. Ukraine requires around $120 billion annually for defense, according to reporting on the proposal, and the government is scrambling everywhere it can for money. Its budget deficit exceeds $32 billion as Kyiv simultaneously negotiates with the IMF over additional financial assistance and new taxes. Europe and the United States have poured hundreds of billions into keeping this war machine operating, yet five years into the conflict Kyiv remains financially dependent upon outsiders.

The situation is even more outrageous because the government created this absurdity itself. Producing and distributing pornography remains illegal in Ukraine and can carry years in prison, yet tax authorities began demanding money from Ukrainians earning income through adult platforms. Pay the taxes and you effectively provide the government with evidence that you participated in an activity it criminalized. Refuse to pay and they can prosecute you for tax evasion. Zhelezniak himself described it as a “tragicomic situation.”

You cannot legislate human nature out of existence. Prostitution has survived emperors, kings, dictators, democracies, communism, religious prohibitions, and every law politicians have invented. The Romans tried regulating how prostitutes could be paid and people simply devised ways around the restrictions. Make an activity illegal and government frequently creates an underground market with multiple exploiters.

That is government in its purest form. First it declares something immoral and sends the police after you. Then it discovers you are making money, demands its percentage, and eventually considers changing the law because it desperately needs the revenue. Ukraine has simply added the insanity of war to the equation.

There is only desperation in reaching the point where politicians are calculating how many battlefield drones can be purchased from taxes on sex work. Every additional scheme to extract another dollar, euro, or hryvnia demonstrates the same underlying reality: this war has consumed Ukraine economically, financially, demographically, and socially. At some point, someone has to admit that destroying what remains of the country to finance an unwinnable war is not defending Ukraine.

Germany’s industrial empire is dying before our eyes. Volkswagen’s Osnabrück auto plant may be converted into a defense-production hub, with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems serving as the anchor partner. A factory that once manufactured vehicles for the civilian economy may soon produce components for air-defense systems as Germany abandons commercial prosperity for a war economy.

The Osnabrück plant employs roughly 1,800 people. The proposed arrangement involving Aurelius Capital and the state of Lower Saxony may preserve approximately 1,400 jobs, but the plans have not yet been finalized. The politicians will celebrate this as a victory because they measure success by whether a worker remains attached to a payroll. They ignore the far more ominous transformation taking place. Germany can no longer compete effectively in the auto market, so it will borrow money to manufacture weapons for wars its people never demanded.

Volkswagen possesses enough excess capacity in Europe to produce approximately 500,000 more vehicles annually than it can sell. The company has approved another 50,000 job reductions, on top of roughly 50,000 already underway, bringing total planned cuts to around 100,000. That is nearly 15% of its global workforce of approximately 650,000 people. VW also intends to cut its model lineup in half and is considering alternatives for four German factories as production programs expire.

The Osnabrück conversion is therefore not some isolated modernization project. It is a potential blueprint for recycling the remains of Germany’s automobile industry into the machinery of war. Volkswagen is shrinking because demand is weak, costs are excessive, and Chinese manufacturers are taking market share. Berlin will now redirect idle factories and skilled workers toward defense because military demand can be manufactured politically and financed without regard to profit.

VW’s after-tax earnings reportedly fell 30% during the first half of 2026. First-quarter net profit declined 28% to €1.56 billion, while revenue slipped 2% to €75.7 billion. Sales in China dropped around 20% during the first quarter as companies such as BYD continued taking market share from the German manufacturers that once dominated the Chinese market.

Germany surrendered that advantage through arrogance and political interference. The country built its postwar prosperity upon affordable energy, engineering, chemicals, machinery, automobiles, and exports. Berlin destroyed access to dependable Russian energy, closed its nuclear plants, imposed Net Zero costs, and allowed Brussels to suffocate industry beneath environmental regulations. The same politicians then expressed shock when production moved abroad and German goods became uncompetitive.

The numbers show a structural decline that can no longer be concealed. Energy-intensive industrial production fell 15.2% between February 2022 and March 2026. Total industrial output declined 9.5% over the same period. German industrial production in July 2026 fell another 1.1% from June and stood 1.6% below the level recorded one year earlier. Automotive production collapsed 9.2% in a single month, while capital-goods production declined 3.4%.

Germany suffered two consecutive years of recession, with GDP contracting in 2023 and 2024. The economy managed growth of only 0.2% in 2025, supported partly by household consumption and government spending rather than a genuine industrial revival. Germany may post stronger numbers in 2026, but even that recovery is increasingly dependent upon massive government expenditure.

The private economy is being replaced by the state. Berlin plans to spend approximately €649 billion on defense over five years. Military expenditure is expected to rise toward 3.5% of GDP for core defense, while the government has also established a €500 billion infrastructure fund and relaxed constitutional borrowing restraints. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil now argues that Germany cannot defend itself without new debt. The government is preparing to borrow hundreds of billions because its productive base can no longer finance the ambitions of its political class.

They will count this military spending as economic growth. A missile manufactured at Osnabrück will increase GDP just as a vehicle once did, but the accounting disguises the economic difference. A car transports a worker, supports commerce, and provides years of civilian use. A missile consumes steel, electronics, chemicals, energy, and labor before being fired and destroyed. It creates no continuing stream of productivity. The taxpayer finances the weapon, pays interest on the debt, and receives nothing capable of repaying the obligation.

Germany was once feared because it could outproduce its competitors. Its automobiles, machinery, chemicals, and engineering were demanded throughout the world. That power came from productivity, not speeches in Brussels or military appropriations in Berlin. Today, Chinese electric vehicles can compete at price points European manufacturers cannot approach, German chemical plants face crushing energy costs, and the country’s largest automaker has half a million vehicles of unused capacity.

Volkswagen itself demonstrates the failure of Germany’s forced electric transition. Berlin and Brussels attempted to dictate the future of transportation through emissions rules and deadlines rather than consumer demand and technological competition. German manufacturers were compelled to invest enormous sums into electric vehicles while China controlled crucial supply chains, refined key materials, and built cheaper cars. Germany provided the regulations while China developed the industrial advantage.

Now the same government will direct capital into defense. It will promise guaranteed orders, subsidize facilities, relax debt restrictions, and call the conversion a strategic success. Yet shifting workers from unwanted cars to taxpayer-funded weapons does not repair the underlying economy. It merely conceals the decay beneath military spending.

The decline in civilian industry and the rise of defense production are not separate developments. They are the same event. Germany can no longer generate sufficient growth through the sectors that once made it prosperous, so the state is becoming the buyer of last resort. The government borrows, places the order, counts the expenditure as GDP, and hands the debt to the public.

Germany is not rebuilding its economic empire. It is stripping the machinery from its factories, borrowing against future generations, and preparing the production lines for war.