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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

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Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

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The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

European Parliament Accelerates DIGITAL EURO

The European Parliament has now thrown its support behind the creation of a digital euro, marking a significant political step toward introducing a central bank digital currency across the eurozone. While the project has been under development for several years at the European Central Bank, this vote signals that lawmakers are increasingly prepared to move the concept from theory toward reality.

Members of Parliament approved amendments endorsing a digital euro that would function both online and offline, effectively aligning with the European Central Bank’s vision for a publicly issued digital form of money. The vote passed with a strong majority, signaling broad political backing for the idea that Europe should create a digital currency controlled by its own monetary institutions rather than relying entirely on private payment networks.

The move reflects growing concern within Europe about the structure of global payment systems. A large portion of digital transactions within the European Union currently run through networks such as Visa and Mastercard, companies headquartered outside the EU. European policymakers have become increasingly uncomfortable with this dependency, arguing that payment infrastructure is no longer just a technical system but a strategic asset tied to economic sovereignty.

euro digital electricImage

Officials have openly framed the digital euro as a way to regain control over the “rails” of Europe’s payment system. If payments are moving steadily away from cash and toward electronic platforms, central banks want to ensure that sovereign currency continues to play a role in that environment rather than being displaced by private payment systems or foreign financial networks.

Under current proposals, the digital euro would complement cash rather than replace it immediately. Citizens would access the currency through digital wallets provided by banks or financial institutions, allowing them to send and receive payments electronically using money issued directly by the central bank. Supporters argue this would preserve public access to central bank money in an economy where physical cash is used less frequently.

Yet the broader implications extend beyond convenience. A digital currency issued by a central bank changes the architecture of the financial system itself. For the first time, individuals could potentially hold digital money backed directly by the central bank rather than commercial bank deposits. That raises complex questions about the relationship between central banks, commercial banks, and the public.

The project remains in its legislative and technical stages. EU governments agreed on a negotiating framework in late 2025, and the European Parliament’s vote now signals that lawmakers are prepared to move forward with the next phase of legislation. If the regulatory framework is finalized in the coming years, the European Central Bank hopes to begin pilot testing around 2027, with a potential public rollout later in the decade.

Lines in the Sand – Iran War

Iran, China and Russia Sign Strategic Pact, Deepening Alignment Against Western Pressure - GV Wire

The conflict now unfolding with Iran is beginning to expose a series of geopolitical lines that had been quietly building for years. What is striking about the current situation is not simply the military confrontation itself, but the reaction of various nations. The world is no longer responding as it did in earlier conflicts where alliances moved almost automatically behind Washington. Instead, governments are drawing their own lines in the sand.

The United States and Israel are presently the two nations directly engaged in military operations against Iran. While Washington has access to bases throughout the Middle East, most of those countries are not actively participating in combat. Gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates host American military infrastructure, but their involvement largely reflects long-standing defense agreements rather than enthusiastic participation in a new regional war. These nations find themselves caught between two competing pressures: their security arrangements with the United States and the geographic reality of living within missile range of Iran.

What has been particularly revealing is the response in Europe. Spain openly refused to allow the United States to use its bases at Rota and Morón for operations against Iran, sparking a diplomatic confrontation with Washington. That decision has highlighted the growing divide inside NATO. During the Cold War and even in the early post-Cold War era, European governments generally aligned themselves with U.S. military policy. Today that unity is no longer automatic. European leaders increasingly calculate their own political and economic risks before committing themselves to American military campaigns.

Who are Iran's allies in a potential conflict with the United States? - ABC  News

The reluctance to join the conflict reflects deeper concerns about escalation. Many European governments are already facing fragile economies, political fragmentation, and rising social tensions. Opening another military front in the Middle East while the war in Ukraine continues would add another layer of uncertainty to an already unstable geopolitical environment. As a result, several governments are publicly urging diplomacy rather than military expansion.

Iran does not stand entirely alone. Its support network is less conventional than traditional state alliances but still significant. Groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias operating in Iraq form part of a regional structure that Tehran has cultivated over decades. These organizations are not merely political sympathizers; they possess their own military capabilities and can operate across multiple fronts simultaneously. This creates a form of distributed conflict that complicates any direct confrontation with Iran itself.

What we are witnessing is the emergence of a fragmented geopolitical landscape where alliances are no longer rigid. Countries are evaluating their interests in a far more transactional way. Some governments provide logistical support while avoiding direct involvement. Others refuse cooperation altogether. Meanwhile, regional actors pursue their own strategic agendas independent of traditional Western alliances.

When crises arise, the difference between formal alliances and genuine strategic alignment becomes visible. The current situation with Iran is exposing those differences in real time. Nations are making calculations not only about military risk but also about energy markets, economic stability, and domestic political pressures.

The phrase “lines in the sand” has long been associated with the Middle East, yet today it applies equally to the diplomatic landscape surrounding the conflict. Countries are defining the limits of their involvement, sometimes publicly and sometimes quietly behind the scenes. These decisions reveal a world where geopolitical loyalties are becoming far more fluid than they once appeared.

Existing US Home Sales Collapse Despite Falling Mortgage Rates

 

TIME to Buy Time to Sell

Existing home sales just delivered one of the clearest signals yet about the true state of the housing market in 2026, and it is not the rebound narrative the mainstream keeps promoting. The latest data shows that existing-home sales fell 8.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 3.91 million units, the steepest monthly decline in nearly four years and the slowest pace in over two years. Sales were also down 4.4% compared to the same month last year, and declines occurred across every region of the United States.

The median existing-home price rose to $396,800, marking the 31st consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, indicating that prices remain historically elevated even as transaction volume collapses. Inventory stood at roughly 1.22 million units, representing just a 3.7-month supply. Yet, this is still well below historical norms needed for a healthy market turnover.

What makes this particularly significant is that the drop took place even as mortgage rates eased to their lowest levels since 2022. In a normal liquidity-driven market, lower borrowing costs should stimulate demand. Instead, the opposite occurred. Even though affordability has technically improved for several consecutive months, buyers are not returning in force. That disconnect is critical. When affordability improves, but sales still fall, it means the restraint is psychological and economic, not purely financial.

Regional data reinforces the structural weakness. The West experienced the sharpest decline, down over 10%, while the South and Midwest also fell notably, showing that this is not a localized slowdown but a nationwide contraction in transaction activity. First-time buyers accounted for only about 31% of purchases, far below the historical norm of nearly 40%, indicating that entry-level demand remains severely constrained.

Real estate does not turn on interest rates alone. Real estate factors in confidence, taxation, job stability, and the long-term economic outlook. Existing-home sales have now been stuck near a roughly 4 million annual pace since 2023, well below the historical norm of about 5.2 million, confirming that the housing market has been in a prolonged structural slump rather than a cyclical boom-bust phase.

What we are witnessing is a frozen market, not a crashing one. Homeowners remain locked into ultra-low legacy mortgages and are unwilling to sell, while buyers face high prices, economic uncertainty, and long-term affordability concerns despite slightly lower rates. The result is reduced turnover rather than forced liquidation. The real estate market remains cautious and tied to the broader economic confidence cycle.

Market Talk – March 5, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 1,032.52 points or 1.90% to 55,278.06
• Shanghai increased 26.093 points or 0.64% to 4,108.567
• Hang Seng increased 71.86 points or 0.28% to 25,321.34
• ASX 200 increased 39.10 points or 0.44% to 8,940.30
• SENSEX increased 899.71 points or 1.14% to 80,015.90
• Nifty50 increased 285.40 points or 1.17% to 24,765.90
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00887 or -1.25% to 0.69867
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00634 or -1.07% to 0.58766
• USDJPY increased 0.677 or 0.43% to 157.738
• USDCNY increased 0.02092 or 0.30% to 6.91593
The above data was collected around 11:23 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold decreased 73.48 USD/t oz. or -1.43% to 5,062.85
• Silver decreased 2.192 USD/t. oz. or -2.62% to 81.314
The above data was collected around 11:26 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
• CAC 40 decreased 121.93 points or -1.49% to 8,045.80
• FTSE 100 decreased 153.71 points or -1.45% to 10,413.94
• DAX 30 decreased 389.61 points or -1.61% to 23,815.75
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.0069 or -0.59% to 1.15646
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00703 or -0.53% to 1.33036
• USDCHF increased 0.00354 or 0.45% to 0.78287
The above data was collected around 11:28 EST.
AMERICAS:

US/AMERICAS:

  • Dow declined by 784.67 points (-1.61%) to 47,954.74

  • S&P 500 declined by 38.79 points (-0.56%) to 6,830.71

  • NASDAQ declined by 58.50 points (-0.26%) to 22,748.986

  • Russell 2000 declined by 50.44 points (-1.91%) to 2,585.574

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined by 332.89 points (-0.98%) to 33,609.97

  • TSX 60 declined by 13.82 points (-0.71%) to 1,946.23

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined by 4,562.82 points (-2.46%) to 180,803.62

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a green day today:
• Crude Oil increased 4.507 USD/BBL or 6.04% to 79.167
• Brent increased 3.194 USD/BBL or 3.92% to 84.594
• Natural gas increased 0.0056 USD/MMBtu or 0.19% to 2.9226
• Gasoline increased 0.0928 USD/GAL or 3.66% to 2.6308
• Heating oil increased 0.2454 USD/GAL or 7.45% to 3.5392
The above data was collected around 11:31 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (7.45%), Crude Oil (6.04%), Brent (3.92%) and Gasoline (3.66%)
• Top commodity losers: Methanol (-4.05%), Orange Juice (-2.67%), Palladium (-2.71%) and Oat (-6.04%)
The above data was collected around 11:42 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.1580% (+3.95bp), US 2’s 3.60% (+0.045%), US 10’s 4.1460% (+4.2bps); US 30’s 4.76 (+0.017%), Bunds 2.8442% (+9.83bp), France 3.4690% (+12.11bp), Italy 3.570% (+14.57bp), Turkey 30.505% (+186.5bp), Greece 3.488% (+6.1bp), Portugal 3.240% (+11.5bp); Spain 3.303% (+9.7bp) and UK Gilts 4.4730% (+9.68bp)
The above data was collected around 11:46 EST.

Economic Warfare – US v Spain

Trade War

Trade has increasingly become the weapon of choice for politicians who cannot resolve disputes through diplomacy. Now we see tensions erupting between the United States and Spain after Madrid refused to allow American forces to use joint bases for operations related to Iran. Washington responded by threatening to cut off trade entirely with Spain. This type of reaction illustrates the dangerous trend that I have warned about for years where politicians increasingly treat trade as a geopolitical weapon.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly condemned Israel and the US for “playing Russian roulette with millions of lives” and called the strikes “unjustifiable.” “Spain has absolutely nothing that we need,” President Trump responded, noting he told the Treasury Secretary to “cut off all dealings with Spain.”

Trade was originally intended to bind nations together economically so that war became less attractive. Adam Smith understood this centuries ago. When nations rely upon each other economically, they have a strong incentive to maintain peace. The moment governments begin using trade as a punishment tool, the entire framework collapses. We saw this repeatedly in the 20th century when sanctions and trade barriers escalated conflicts rather than resolving them. History shows that once trade becomes weaponized, it rarely stops with a single country.

Spain’s refusal to allow its bases to be used reflects Europe’s growing discomfort with the escalation of conflicts abroad. Yet responding with threats to sever trade does nothing to solve the dispute. Instead, it drags the entire European Union into the matter since Spain cannot be isolated from the EU’s trade system.

Trade is tied directly to capital flows. When capital moves into the United States seeking safety or investment opportunities, the trade deficit expands automatically as a balancing mechanism. Attempting to manipulate trade through threats or sanctions does not change the underlying economic forces driving capital movement around the world.

Weaponizing trade also accelerates fragmentation in the global economy. Nations begin forming blocs, bypassing one another with alternative financial systems, payment networks, and supply chains. We have already seen this process unfolding as countries search for ways to avoid sanctions and political interference in commerce. The more trade is politicized, the faster this fragmentation accelerates.

What we are witnessing is not simply a dispute between Washington and Madrid. It is part of a broader shift where governments are increasingly willing to use economic systems as tools of coercion. The problem is that once this door is opened, every nation eventually adopts the same strategy.

Europe Is Building a Digital Identity System for 450 Million People

The European Union is quietly constructing what may become one of the most sweeping digital identity systems ever attempted. Under new legislation, every EU member state must provide citizens with a government-approved “European Digital Identity Wallet” by 2026. This system will allow people to store official documents, verify identity, access government services, sign legal contracts, and potentially interact with financial institutions through a single digital platform. It is being marketed as a modernization effort designed to make life easier for citizens navigating an increasingly digital economy.

Supporters claim the digital wallet will simply replace physical paperwork. Instead of carrying passports, driver’s licenses, or other credentials, individuals will be able to verify their identity online with a government-issued digital key. The European Commission argues that this will streamline bureaucracy and allow citizens to interact with both public and private services more efficiently across all 27 member states.

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Yet the implications extend far beyond administrative convenience. Once identity becomes centralized within a digital framework controlled or approved by government authorities, participation in everyday life increasingly depends on that system. Access to banking, employment verification, healthcare services, travel documentation, and legal contracts can all be integrated into the same identity infrastructure. What begins as a convenience quickly becomes a gateway through which access to modern society is managed.

Governments have always maintained population registries in one form or another. What makes digital identity systems fundamentally different is the speed and scale at which they operate. When identification becomes digitized and interconnected across borders, the ability to monitor economic and social activity expands dramatically. Identity verification can occur instantly, records can be updated in real time, and information can be shared between institutions with unprecedented efficiency.

This development becomes even more significant when viewed alongside other technological initiatives currently underway in Europe. The European Central Bank continues to explore the creation of a digital euro, a central bank digital currency that would exist entirely within electronic financial systems. If digital identity platforms and digital currency systems eventually intersect, financial activity and identity verification could become closely linked within the same infrastructure.

Proponents emphasize security and convenience, but critics argue that centralized identity systems create vulnerabilities of their own. Large databases containing personal information become attractive targets for cyberattacks. More importantly, the consolidation of identity into a single digital framework gives authorities significant influence over how individuals interact with economic systems. Access to services, verification processes, and regulatory compliance can all be mediated through the digital identity network.

Europe’s digital identity wallet represents a major step toward integrating identification, financial systems, and digital services across an entire continent. Whether it ultimately functions as a tool of convenience or evolves into something far more intrusive will depend on how these systems are governed and how widely they are integrated into everyday life. What is clear is that the infrastructure for a new form of digital administration is being built now, and its long-term implications will extend well beyond simplifying paperwork.

Biometric Databases: Governments Building the Infrastructure of Surveillance

biometricData

Governments around the world are rapidly expanding biometric identification systems, quietly building databases that contain some of the most personal information a human being possesses. Fingerprints, facial scans, iris patterns, and even voice recognition are increasingly being collected and stored in centralized systems. What was once limited to criminal investigations is now becoming a standard feature of everyday identification.

Biometric systems are attractive to governments because they tie identity directly to the human body. Unlike passwords or identification cards, fingerprints and facial features cannot be forgotten, lost, or easily changed. Authorities argue that this makes biometric verification more secure and more efficient for everything from border control to banking access. Airports already rely heavily on facial recognition technology, while banks and financial apps increasingly require biometric verification for account access.

Border control is one of the fastest-growing areas of biometric expansion. The European Union has begun implementing its Entry/Exit System, which replaces traditional passport stamps with biometric records. Travelers entering or leaving the Schengen Area will have their fingerprints and facial images recorded and stored in a centralized database. These systems are designed to track travel movements more accurately and identify individuals who overstay visas.

Mexico recently approved plans for a national biometric identity card that will include fingerprints and iris scans stored in a central database. Authorities say the program will help combat crime and identity fraud. Critics argue that such systems concentrate enormous amounts of personal information in government-controlled databases that could be misused or accessed without proper safeguards.

The expansion of biometric systems is occurring alongside the development of digital identity frameworks and increasingly digitized financial infrastructure. When biometric verification becomes the standard method of confirming identity, access to banking services, government programs, employment verification, and travel documentation can all be tied to the same authentication systems. Identity verification shifts from something you carry in your wallet to something embedded in your physical characteristics.

Large biometric databases introduce their own risks. They become highly valuable targets for cyberattacks, as breaches could expose sensitive personal information that cannot be replaced like a password or credit card number. Unlike traditional identification methods, biometric traits cannot simply be reset once compromised. A stolen fingerprint or facial recognition template could theoretically be misused indefinitely.

As biometric identification systems expand, governments gain the ability to track individuals across multiple aspects of life. Border crossings, financial transactions, employment records, and access to services can all be tied to a single biometric identity profile. When these systems are interconnected, they create an infrastructure capable of monitoring activity on a scale that would have been unimaginable only a few decades ago.

Technology itself is not inherently oppressive, but its implementation often determines its consequences. Biometric identification may improve efficiency in certain situations, yet the rapid expansion of centralized biometric databases raises fundamental questions about privacy, autonomy, and the balance of power between individuals and the institutions that manage these systems.

Market Talk – March 4, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 2,033.51 points or -3.61% to 54,245.54
• Shanghai decreased 40.202 points or -0.98% to 4,082.474
• Hang Seng decreased 518.60 points or -2.01% to 25,249.48
• ASX 200 decreased 176.10 points or -1.94% to 8,901.20
• SENSEX decreased 1,122.66 points or -1.40% to 79,116.19
• Nifty50 decreased 385.20 points or -1.55% to 24,480.50
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00361 or 0.51% to 0.70720
• NZDUSD increased 0.00415 or 0.70% to 0.59319
• USDJPY decreased 0.778 or -0.49% to 156.947
• USDCNY decreased 0.02832 or -0.41% to 6.89025
The above data was collected around 11:50 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold increased 57.9 USD/t oz. or 1.14% to 5,146.75
• Silver increased 1.692 USD/t. oz. or 2.06% to 83.672
The above data was collected around 11:52 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
• CAC 40 increased 63.89 points or 0.79% to 8,167.73
• FTSE 100 increased 83.52 points or 0.80% to 10,567.65
• DAX 30 increased 414.71 points or 1.74% to 24,205.36
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00239 or 0.21% to 1.16386
• GBPUSD increased 0.00147 or 0.11% to 1.33693
• USDCHF decreased 0.00221 or -0.28% to 0.77980
The above data was collected around 11:54 EST.
AMERICAS:

US/AMERICAS:

  • Dow advanced by 238.14 points (+0.49%) to 48,739.41

  • S&P 500 advanced by 52.87 points (+0.78%) to 6,869.50

  • NASDAQ advanced by 290.79 points (+1.29%) to 22,807.484

  • Russell 2000 advanced by 27.66 points (+1.06%) to 2,636.012

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 157.92 points (+0.47%) to 33,942.86

  • TSX 60 advanced by 9.10 points (+0.47%) to 1,960.05

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced by 2,261.57 points (+1.24%) to 185,366.44

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
• Crude Oil decreased 0.451 USD/BBL or -0.61% to 74.109
• Brent decreased 0.333 USD/BBL or -0.41% to 81.067
• Natural gas decreased 0.1384 USD/MMBtu or -4.53% to 2.9156
• Gasoline increased 0.0129 USD/GAL or 0.52% to 2.4861
• Heating oil increased 0.0447 USD/GAL or 1.40% to 3.2316
The above data was collected around 11:58 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Milk (10.60%), Platinum (4.08%), Silicon (3.86%) and Orange Juice (4.22%)
• Top commodity losers: Lithium (-4.35%), Bitumen (-2.30%), Natural Gas (-4.53%) and Oat (-5.91%)
The above data was collected around 12:06 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.1180% (-1.49bp), US 2’s 3.53% (+0.019%), US 10’s 4.0730% (+0.1bps); US 30’s 4.72 (+0.009%), Bunds 2.7570% (-1.82bp), France 3.3480% (-3.54bp), Italy 3.4290% (-4.73bp), Turkey 31.180% (+236bp), Greece 3.424% (-6.5bp), Portugal 3.147% (-3.5bp); Spain 3.198% (+1.2bp) and UK Gilts 4.3760% (-3.15bp)
The above data was collected around 12:10 EST.

Great Nations Do Not Fight Endless Wars

Neocon Endless Wars

“Great nations do not fight endless wars,” Donald Trump said during his campaign when highlighting his “Americas First” message. Trump explicitly promised to maintain peace and keep American troops out of foreign wars. American blood has been shed in the Middle East once more amid Operation Epic Fury. Could this escalating war cause MAGA to fracture?

“We are not going to war with Iran. We are going to make sure they never have a nuclear weapon,” Trump once said. I’ve mentioned that I was particularly impressed with Donald Trump after visiting Mar-a-Lago. He was the first politician to voice genuine concern over American lives lost fighting endless wars. “After 19 years, it is time for them to police their own country. Bring our soldiers back home but closely watch what is going on and strike with a thunder like never before, if necessary!” he posted in 2020. Trump later vowed to bring our troops home by Christmas of that year.

The man who once remorsefully spoke of dreading watching mothers mourning their sons and daughters has been compromised, infiltrated by the neocons. He admitted that the US should have never been in Iraq or Afghanistan. He did not troops in Syria. Trump clearly acknowledged that the Middle East has endless generations of feuding and rivalry that cannot be stopped. “Peace in the Middle East” cannot be attained through warfare, and truthfully, it simply cannot be attained because of the deep rooted ideology that has been passed on throughout thousands of years.

The neocons fantasized of a 6-week war in Iraq back in 2003, but US troops remained on the ground until December 2011. The strike on Iran is expected to last “four to give weeks,” according to Washington officials who say they are on a “clear, decisive mission.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said it will take “some time” but “not years…not an endless war.”

Americans voted for peace and nationalism after four years of globalist policies. Trump has shot himself in the foot. Exactly on target with the ECM, 2026 is emerging as a major geopolitical turning point. The model has been warning that this year would mark a shift into a broader phase of instability. What we are witnessing is not is cyclical.

The computer is indicating that pressures will intensify into 2027, where we face a Panic Cycle that historically coincides with sudden escalation or an external shock event. Panic Cycles do not require full-scale world war but they dramatically increase the probability of geopolitical confrontation and capital flight. The risk is that regional conflicts merge, drawing in larger powers either directly or through proxies.

That escalation phase then carries forward into 2028, which stands as a Yearly Panic Cycle, which is a far more significant inflection point. When Panic Cycles align at both the shorter and longer time frames, the probability of systemic disruption rises sharply. This is where sovereign debt stress, currency instability, military confrontation, and political realignment can converge.

The key takeaway: 2026 is the pivot. 2027 introduces volatility and escalation risk. 2028 represents the potential systemic break.

Iran’s Geography – Mountain Fortress And Deserts

Topographic map of Iran with the main topographical features ...

When analysts talk about Iran, they too often reduce it to politics, nukes, or ideology. But any real understanding of the strategic challenge must begin with geography. Iran is not Iraq; it is not Afghanistan. It is a vast land mass defined by mountain ranges that have shaped its history, defense, and resistance to outside powers for millennia.

Iran covers roughly 1.65 million square kilometers, making it more than three times the size of Iraq and significantly larger than Afghanistan. Its internal geography isn’t open plains, but a series of rugged, interconnected mountain systems with high interior basins and plateaus wedged between them. The two dominant ranges, the Zagros in the west and the Alborz in the north, surround the country’s heartland, rise above 3,000 meters, and in places top 4,000 meters, creating what military theorists have called a mountain fortress

Afghanistan is frequently cited as the quintessential “graveyard of empires,” and its Hindu Kush mountains create an extraordinarily hostile combat environment. But even Afghanistan’s mountains are more accessible valleys and corridors. Iran’s mountains differ in scale and in their relationship to population centers. Iran’s population is concentrated in mountainous basins, not distant from the terrain that conceals them. Cities like Tehran, nestled under the Alborz, and countless towns embedded in the Zagros foothills, are naturally insulated. This gives defenders the ability to move, regroup, and conceal logistics under terrain that challenges air and ground surveillance.

Contrast that with Iraq, where the terrain quickly transitions to flat plains like the Tigris-Euphrates basin, which historically have facilitated rapid warfare. Iraq’s internal highlands exist, but they are limited and do not envelop critical centers. That is why during the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion, coalition forces could maneuver long distances rapidly. In Iran, such maneuver corridors are constrained by elevation, narrow passes, and terrain that favors defensive preparations and ambush.

Terrain matters because it dictates strategy. In Afghanistan, invaders struggled precisely because the rugged landscape broke lines of communication and allowed insurgents to melt into valleys and mountainsides. Iran’s mountains are broader and more extensive, giving defenders even more strategic options: natural choke points, deep interior lines of retreat, and countless niches for irregular or asymmetric resistance. Iran’s military planners understand this well, which is why defensive tunnel networks and surface-to-air missile sites have been deployed to exploit the topography.

Historically, the mountains of Iran have served as a barrier to sovereignty. They helped defend against Arab, Mongol, Ottoman, and Russian incursions over centuries. They served as the backbone of resistance during the Iran–Iraq War, where Iranian forces leveraged rugged terrain to negate some of Iraq’s technical advantages.

So when policymakers today speculate about quick strikes and a six-week regime decapitation, they are ignoring a fundamental constant: mountains favor the defender.