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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

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Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

The Plot to Seize Russia_3Dmockup_2 300x225

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Market Talk – June 12, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 1,802.77 points or 2.81% to 66,020.04
• Shanghai increased 44.498 points or 1.12% to 4,031.513
• Hang Seng increased 468.81 points or 1.93% to 24,718.10
• ASX 200 increased 170.80 points or 1.98% to 8,804.00
• SENSEX increased 1,695.40 points or 2.30% to 75,527.95
• Nifty50 increased 461.30 points or 1.99% to 23,622.90
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00009 or -0.01% to 0.70479
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00052 or -0.09% to 0.58318
• USDJPY increased 0.302 or 0.19% to 160.223
• USDCNY decreased 0.00019 or 0.00% to 6.76321
The above data was collected around 14:14 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 15.21 USD/t oz. or 0.36% to 4,227.96
•  Silver increased 0.809 USD/t. oz. or 1.20% to 68.148
The above data was collected around 14:16 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 150.07 points or 1.83% to 8,350.87
•  FTSE 100 increased 167.84 points or 1.63% to 10,471.72
•  DAX 30 increased 425.59 points or 1.76% to 24,635.30
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.00036 or -0.03% to 1.15748
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00019 or -0.01% to 1.34150
• USDCHF increased 0.00175 or 0.22% to 0.79659
The above data was collected around 14:24 EST.

AMERICAS:

US Markets:

  • DJIA advanced by 353.51 points (0.70%) to 51,202.26
  • S&P 500 advanced by 37.16 points (0.50%) to 7,431.46
  • NASDAQ advanced by 79.18 points (0.31%) to 25,888.844
  • Russell 2000 advanced by 22.96 points (0.79%) to 2,943.992

Canada:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 266.39 points (0.77%) to 34,937.85
  • TSX 60 advanced by 13.43 points (0.66%) to 2,050.45

Brazil:

  • Bovespa declined by 364.58 points (-0.21%) to 171,132.66
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 2.903 USD/BBL or -3.31% to 84.807
•  Brent decreased 3.141 USD/BBL or -3.48% to 87.239
•  Natural gas increased 0.0326 USD/MMBtu or 1.06% to 3.1196
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0504 USD/GAL -1.63% to 3.0510
•  Heating oil decreased 0.115 USD/GAL or -3.27% to 3.3981
The above data was collected around 14:27 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Zinc (2.40%), Copper (3.07%), Platinum (3.00%) and Palladium (3.44%)
•  Top commodity losers: Oat (-2.53%), Heating Oil (-3.27%), Brent (-3.48%) and Crude Oil (-3.31%)
The above data was collected around 14:33 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.6370% (-4.77bp), US 2’s 4.08% (+0.011%), US 10’s 4.4790% (+0.7bps); US 30’s 4.97 (+0.009%), Bunds 2.9966% (-2.91bp), France 3.647% (-3.97bp), Italy 3.727% (-7.82bp), Turkey 33.820% (+187bp), Greece 3.681% (-5.4bp), Portugal 3.370% (-5.1bp); Spain 3.448% (-4.1bp) and UK Gilts 4.8360% (-7.5bp)
The above data was collected around 14:34 EST.

STUDENT DISCOUNT NOW AVAILABLE!

UWE.Logo_

One of the goals of our upcoming Tampa event is to help educate and inspire the next generation of independent thinkers. That’s why we’re excited to announce a new Student Discount for our upcoming in-person event:

Understanding the World Economy with Martin Armstrong

Tampa Marriott Water Street
Tampa, Florida
Saturday, July 25, 2026
2:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Students can now receive 50% OFF admission. Simply select “Student” during registration and complete the required field. The discount will be applied automatically at checkout. No coupon code is required.

This event is designed for anyone who wants to better understand how the world really works. We will explore the cyclical nature of history, geopolitical trends, societal behavior, economic fundamentals, capital flows, and the forces driving change around the globe. Whether you are a student, business owner, investor, professional, retiree, or simply someone seeking a deeper understanding of current events, this seminar is for you.

At just four hours, this unique summer event is designed to deliver a tremendous amount of insight while leaving plenty of time to enjoy everything Florida has to offer. It is also the perfect opportunity to introduce friends, family members, colleagues, and students to Martin Armstrong’s work and the concepts behind the Economic Confidence Model.

With growing uncertainty around the world, there has never been a more important time to understand the larger forces shaping our future.

In-person seating is limited and tickets are sold online only. Tickets will not be available at the door.

We look forward to seeing you in Tampa this July 25!

Register today:
https://armstrongeconomics.ticketspice.com/understanding-world-economy

Wholesale Inflation Confirms Energy Crisis

inflation

The Producer Price Index for May came in far hotter than expected, rising 1.1% for the month and 6.5% year-over-year, the largest annual increase since late 2022. What is important here is that nearly 80% of that increase came from goods, and energy was the driving force behind the move. Gasoline prices at the wholesale level surged more than 23% in a single month. Diesel fuel, jet fuel, natural gas, industrial chemicals, plastics, and transportation costs all moved sharply higher. This is exactly why I have repeatedly stated that energy is the lifeblood of the economy. Everything must be manufactured, transported, and delivered. When energy prices rise, they eventually work their way through the entire system.

The press continues to focus on consumer inflation, but wholesale inflation is often the more important indicator because it reveals what businesses are paying before those costs are passed on to the public. Companies absorbed much of the inflation shock over the past several years because consumers had reached their breaking point. That cushion is disappearing. Businesses cannot continue absorbing rising fuel, transportation, and raw material costs indefinitely. The result is that the inflation consumers are experiencing today is likely only the first stage of a broader wave working its way through the economy.

Energy Crisis Cover

The politicians will blame corporations, speculators, or anyone else they can find, but the source of this inflation is staring everyone in the face. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping routes, threatened the Strait of Hormuz, and created uncertainty throughout global energy markets. Oil remains the foundation of modern civilization whether governments wish to admit it or not. The dream that governments could simply regulate away fossil fuels while simultaneously fighting wars was always detached from reality. Energy shortages and rising costs are now exposing the consequences of those policies.

What concerns me is that we are entering a period where inflation, war, and sovereign debt problems are converging at the same time. The Federal Reserve cannot solve an energy shortage with interest rates. Raising rates will not create more oil, open shipping lanes, or end geopolitical conflict. Meanwhile, governments continue spending as though debt no longer matters. The May PPI report is not simply another inflation statistic. It is a warning that the energy crisis is spreading through the economic system and that the inflation battle is far from over. As we move deeper into this Panic Cycle year, volatility in commodities, interest rates, and global capital flows should surprise no one.

BRITAIN CANNOT AFFORD ITS EMPIRE

The Decline of the UK Over the Last 100 Years | by Adam Kuro | Medium

UK Defence Secretary John Healey suddenly resigned because the government cannot find the money to fund military commitments. In his resignation letter, he openly accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to commit the resources needed to defend the country at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. When a defence minister quits claiming the government cannot adequately fund national security, that is a warning sign far beyond politics. It is a signal that the financial reality has finally collided with political promises.

Britain’s economic condition is far worse than many appreciate. Government debt has climbed above £3 trillion, exceeding 100% of GDP. Interest payments on that debt have become one of the largest items in the national budget. The tax burden is at its highest level in decades, yet the government still cannot balance the books. Economic growth has been stagnant for years. Productivity growth has virtually disappeared. Manufacturing continues to shrink as a percentage of the economy while energy costs remain among the highest in the industrialized world. Britain now spends more servicing debt than it does on many essential public services. The government talks about expanding defence spending, expanding social programs, funding green initiatives, supporting Ukraine, and maintaining the welfare state, yet the numbers simply do not add up.

UK Defence Secretary John Healey has unexpectedly resigned over Prime  Minister Starmer's defence spending plan. In his letter to the PM, Healey  said the “Treasury has been unwilling to commit the resources

The dispute centers around Britain’s Defence Investment Plan. Healey reportedly wanted at least £18 billion in additional military funding through 2030, while military officials have warned of a £28 billion shortfall over the next four years. Instead, the proposed spending plan would only raise defence spending to roughly 2.68% of GDP by 2030, well below what military planners believe is necessary given the commitments Britain has made around the world. The government delayed the plan for months because the Treasury could not find the money.

Britain is trying to maintain global military commitments on an economy that has been steadily weakening for years. Governments always expand obligations during periods of prosperity and then discover during economic decline that they cannot afford the promises they have made. Britain wants to project military power from Eastern Europe to the Middle East, lead NATO initiatives in the Arctic, support Ukraine indefinitely, and modernize its armed forces, all while carrying massive debt burdens and facing weak economic growth.

The resignation of Healey exposes a much deeper problem. Britain is no longer debating how much it wants to spend. Britain is confronting the reality of how much it can afford. As we move deeper into the sovereign debt crisis unfolding across the Western world, more governments will face this same dilemma. They will discover that geopolitical ambitions are ultimately constrained by economic reality, and economic reality is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Bill Gates Invests in Lab-Grown Baby Formula

People have become so conditioned to thinking in partisan terms that they miss the larger issue entirely. The question is not whether Bill Gates is a good person or a bad person. The question is why one individual continually appears at the center of industries that later become critical during periods of crisis.

Bill Gates became one of the most influential private figures in global vaccination programs long before COVID. Through the Gates Foundation, billions of dollars have been directed into vaccine development, distribution, and organizations such as Gavi. The foundation has committed more than $4 billion to Gavi alone over the years and remains one of the most influential private actors in global vaccine policy. During COVID, the Gates Foundation committed hundreds of millions more toward vaccine development, manufacturing, and distribution worldwide. Nobody can seriously dispute that Gates became one of the most powerful private forces in the vaccine industry. Yet when a global pandemic arrived, suddenly vaccines became one of the most profitable and politically protected industries on earth.

Then there is agriculture. Bill Gates spent years quietly acquiring farmland across the United States until he became America’s largest private farmland owner, accumulating roughly 250,000 to 275,000 acres spread across numerous states. While many dismissed concerns by arguing that farmland is simply another investment, the timing remains extraordinary. Food inflation exploded. Supply chains broke down. Fertilizer shortages emerged. Farmers found themselves squeezed from every direction. Food security suddenly became a national discussion. Once again, one individual sat at the center of a strategic industry during a period of crisis.

Now consider infant nutrition. Gates-backed investment funds supported BIOMILQ, a startup attempting to produce human breast milk in laboratories using cultured cells. This was not science fiction. It was a real venture designed to create lab-produced breast milk as a commercial product. Around the same period, America experienced one of the worst baby formula shortages in modern history. The shortage stemmed from manufacturing disruptions and supply chain failures coincidentally tied to COVID.

Vaccinate Baby

Gates infamously speaks on controlling the population. “If we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that [population growth] by perhaps 10 or 15 percent,” he stated. When an influential billionaire who funds vaccine programs and bankrolls the World Health Organization buys vast amounts of farmland, finances alternative food technologies, and speaks about managing population growth all at the same time, people are going to ask questions. You cannot expect the public to ignore those connections.

Gates Health Monopoly

The establishment immediately labels anyone who notices these patterns a conspiracy theorist. That is how debate is shut down before it begins. Yet concentration of power has always been a legitimate concern. When banking became concentrated, governments eventually regulated it. When railroads became concentrated, governments intervened. When media became concentrated, concerns emerged over influence and control. Why should food, medicine, agriculture, and biotechnology be treated differently?

The same people who finance vaccines finance health policy. The same people buying farmland finance agricultural innovation. The same investors funding synthetic food products dictate the future of nutrition. All distinction between private influence and public policy has disappeared.

What concerns me is where this trend leads. We are moving toward a world where food production, healthcare, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, digital identity systems, and financial systems are increasingly controlled by a shrinking circle of institutions and individuals. That concentration creates systemic risk. If they are wrong, everyone suffers. If their interests diverge from the public’s interests, society has few alternatives.

History warns that whenever too much influence accumulates in too few hands, the public eventually pays the price. The issue is the system that allows any private individual to become influential across so many strategic sectors at the same time. That is the lesson people should be paying attention to, because concentration of power has never ended well, regardless of who holds it.

Market Talk – June 11, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 38.00 points or 0.06% to 64,217.27
• Shanghai decreased 6.211 points or -0.16% to 3,987.015
• Hang Seng decreased 158.67 points or -0.65% to 24,249.29
• ASX 200 decreased 20.10 points or -0.23% to 8,633.20
• SENSEX decreased 150.63 points or -0.20% to 73,832.55
• Nifty50 decreased 53.35 points or -0.23% to 23,161.60
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00013 or 0.02% to 0.70001
• NZDUSD decreased 0.0012 or -0.21% to 0.57850
• USDJPY decreased 0.126 or -0.08% to 160.419
• USDCNY decreased 0.00453 or -0.07% to 6.77754
The above data was collected around 13:29 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 58.76 USD/t oz. or 1.44% to 4,130.68
•  Silver increased 2.196 USD/t. oz. or 3.46% to 65.592
The above data was collected around 13:32 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 38.97 points or 0.48% to 8,200.80
•  FTSE 100 increased 49.07 points or 0.48% to 10,303.88
•  DAX 30 increased 14.40 points or 0.06% to 24,209.71
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00248 or 0.21% to 1.15600
• GBPUSD increased 0.00306 or 0.23% to 1.33990
• USDCHF decreased 0.0026 or -0.33% to 0.79719
The above data was collected around 13:41 EST.

AMERICAS:

US Markets:

  • DJIA advanced by 929.97 points (1.86%) to 50,848.75
  • S&P 500 advanced by 127.31 points (1.75%) to 7,394.30
  • NASDAQ advanced by 640.16 points (2.54%) to 25,809.660
  • Russell 2000 advanced by 86.03 points (3.03%) to 2,921.492

Canada:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 516.92 points (1.51%) to 34,668.24
  • TSX 60 advanced by 25.53 points (1.27%) to 2,036.84

Brazil:

  • Bovespa advanced by 2,877.96 points (1.71%) to 171,497.22
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a negative day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 3.325 USD/BBL or -3.69% to 86.705
•  Brent decreased 3.602 USD/BBL or -3.87% to 89.498
•  Natural gas decreased 0.1076 USD/MMBtu or -3.38% to 3.0774
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0401 USD/GAL -1.29% to 3.0698
•  Heating oil decreased 0.1501 USD/GAL or -4.15% to 3.4625
The above data was collected around 13:43 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Silver (3.46%), Copper (1.75%), Coffee (2.66%) and Palladium (2.73%)
•  Top commodity losers: Methanol (-5.43%), Heating Oil (-4.15%), Brent (-3.87%) and Crude Oil (-3.69%)
The above data was collected around 13:49 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.6850% (+0.26bp), US 2’s 4.09% (-0.071%), US 10’s 4.4790% (-8bps); US 30’s 4.97 (-0.065%), Bunds 3.0333% (-3.53bp), France 3.687% (-4.35bp), Italy 3.809% (-3.85bp), Turkey 34.940% (+260bp), Greece 3.741% (-4.2bp), Portugal 3.419% (-3.7bp); Spain 3.489% (-3.9bp) and UK Gilts 4.9140% (-3.1bp)
The above data was collected around 13:53 EST.

Fiat

FIAT The Truth About Money – 2nd Edition (unedited)

$59.95

At last, the real truth about money.

This book on FIAT is perhaps the most definitive work on this subject, tracing the origin of this theory of FIAT and why it has become so distorted. The lack of understanding of what even constitutes FIAT, that all paper currency is just FIAT because it is not backed by some commodity, prevents us from comprehending not merely what money is, but its role within the global economy. Coins over the century could be struck in gold, silver, bronze, or some copper-alloy, and if their value was decreed to be worth far more than their metal content. FIAT is by no means just paper money. There were people who proposed issuing a platinum coin with a value of $1 trillion to pay off the debt? That too would be FIAT.

Then there is the questionable Elastic Money used by central banks creating inflation combined with discredited Keynesian Economics assuming society can be manipulated with interest rates. But is money exclusively the product of a central bank? Has debt become money that just pays interest? Are we blaming the gun for a murder rather than the person who pulls the trigger? Is debt a part of the monetary system? Does bank lending create money privately? Where does BITCOIN fit into this quagmire of trying to define what is actually money?

Fiat_Currency 2nd Ed Index

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China’s Greatest Crime Is Competing Too Well

The Pentagon has added over a dozen Chinese companies including Alibaba,  BYD, Baidu, Unitree and Nio to a list of entities it says have ties to the  Chinese military. https://t.co/YeNjQxjVK0

The Pentagon has now added BYD, Alibaba, Baidu, and dozens of other Chinese firms to its list of companies allegedly linked to China’s military establishment. Washington wants the public to believe this is about national security. China’s greatest crime is not that it has a military. Every major power has a military. China’s greatest crime is that it competed too well.

China is building electric vehicles that are taking market share from Western automakers. Suddenly it becomes a national security concern. China develops world-class battery technology. National security concern. China advances artificial intelligence. National security concern. China dominates solar manufacturing. National security concern. China expands semiconductor capabilities. National security concern. At some point people need to ask whether the issue is military activity or economic competition.

The United States spent decades shipping factories, manufacturing, technology, and investment capital to China. Wall Street and consumers rejoiced after receiving cheaper products. The assumption was always that China would remain a low-cost manufacturing platform while the West retained financial and technological dominance. That has never been what our computer indicated, and although it may not have made sense decades ago, every indicator shows China on the rise.

China took the capital, the technology, the expertise, and the industrial capacity and built an economic machine that now challenges the West across nearly every major strategic industry. BYD now sells more electric vehicles than many Western competitors. China produces the overwhelming majority of the world’s battery components. Chinese companies have become major players in artificial intelligence, robotics, telecommunications, and advanced manufacturing. The problem is not that China failed. The problem is that China succeeded.

What would happen if BYD were headquartered in California? Politicians would celebrate it as proof of American innovation. If Baidu were based in Silicon Valley, every financial network would praise its technological achievements. If China’s battery industry belonged to the United States, politicians would be holding press conferences celebrating industrial leadership.

Instead, these companies are Chinese. Yes, there have been instances of technology theft as both nations play dirty to compete. Every success achieved by the rival nation is portrayed as a threat. Governments begin redefining ordinary commerce as strategic warfare.

Washington is finally admitting what China understood from the beginning. Beijing never separated economics from national strategy. China viewed industrial development as national power. The West viewed industry as something to offshore in pursuit of quarterly profits. Now policymakers are discovering that surrendering industrial capacity has consequences.

We are rapidly approaching a world where every Chinese company is viewed as a military company and every American company operating abroad is viewed as an instrument of Washington. Once governments start treating commercial competition as military competition, the distinction between economic warfare and actual warfare begins disappearing.

The public should understand what is taking place. This is not merely about BYD, Alibaba, or Baidu. This is another step in the escalation between the world’s two largest economies. The war cycle is advancing precisely as expected. The rhetoric becomes more hostile as restrictions become more aggressive. The economic walls will grow higher.

The Pacific Prize

Why is the Pacific Ocean so big? | Live Science

The Taiwan issue is not simply about reunification. That has always been far too simplistic. If Taiwan were merely a political dispute, China would not be spending trillions of yuan to build one of the largest navies on Earth. It would not be launching aircraft carriers into the Pacific. It would not be conducting large-scale naval exercises beyond the first island chain. What we are witnessing is something much larger.

Japan is reporting that China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning and its accompanying strike group recently conducted extensive operations east of the Philippines. Carrier aircraft reportedly carried out roughly 170 takeoffs and landings as the fleet operated throughout the western Pacific. These were not coastal defense exercises. These were blue-water naval operations designed to demonstrate that China intends to project military power far beyond its own shores.

Taiwan sits at the center of what military planners call the First Island Chain, a series of islands stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines. Since the end of World War II, this chain has effectively limited China’s direct access to the broader Pacific. Control of Taiwan would fundamentally alter that equation. Military analysts have openly acknowledged that China’s navy is steadily expanding beyond the First Island Chain and increasingly operating in waters once dominated almost exclusively by the United States and its allies.

2024_10_30_16_56_43_NATO_Considers_Opening_a_Tokyo_Office_to_Have_a_Permanent_Indo_Pacific_Footprint

This is why military planners throughout Asia are becoming increasingly concerned. China is not simply building ships. It is building the capability to operate far from home for extended periods of time. In 2025, Chinese carriers reportedly spent a record amount of time operating beyond the First Island Chain, launching thousands of aircraft sorties as operational experience rapidly increased. These are the actions of a nation preparing for regional power projection, not merely coastal defense.

Japan is expanding defense spending. The Philippines is increasing military cooperation with the United States. Taiwan is rapidly expanding missile production. China continues building carriers, destroyers, submarines, and long-range missile capabilities. Every nation claims it is acting defensively. History shows that when everyone is preparing for war defensively, the risk of conflict rises dramatically.

Our models have warned that 2026 would be a panic-cycle year characterized by rising volatility and escalating geopolitical tensions. We are now watching multiple theaters move simultaneously. Ukraine continues to expand. The Middle East remains unstable. Europe is openly discussing military vulnerability windows extending into 2028 and 2029. Meanwhile, China is steadily pushing farther into the Pacific. None of these events exist in isolation.