Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Understanding the World Economy

An Introduction to Cycles of Confidence

Most people are taught to view the economy through headlines, political debates, and short-term events. Yet beneath the daily noise are long-term cycles that influence markets, governments, business activity, and even society itself.

Join Martin Armstrong for a special educational event designed to introduce attendees to the concept of confidence cycles and how they shape the world around us. This presentation will provide an accessible overview of the theories and observations that have made Martin Armstrong one of the most recognized independent economic thinkers in the world.

This event is not limited to investors, traders, or finance professionals. It is intended for anyone interested in understanding the forces that drive economic change, including students, business owners, retirees, professionals, entrepreneurs, and curious minds seeking a broader perspective on the world economy.

What You’ll Learn:

• • The role confidence plays in economic and political change
• • How cycles influence markets, governments, and society
• • Why economic trends often repeat throughout history
• • The interconnected nature of the global economy
• • The foundations of Martin Armstrong’s approach to analyzing world events
• Important Information:
• • This is an educational event only
• • No financial advice will be provided
• • No market forecasts or investment recommendations will be discussed
• • This event is designed as an introduction to the concepts behind cycles of confidence
• • The event will not be live-streamed
• • Attendance is available exclusively in-person

This event is also an excellent opportunity to introduce friends, family members, or colleagues to Martin Armstrong’s work. If you have ever wanted to share these ideas with someone important in your life, this presentation provides the perfect starting point.

We do not anticipate offering this event again in the foreseeable future. For those interested in gaining a deeper understanding of Martin Armstrong’s theories on the global economy, this may be a unique opportunity.

Learn. Understand. See the Bigger Picture.

Reserve your seat today:
https://armstrongeconomics.ticketspice.com/understanding-world-economy

PRIVATE BLOG – The July Crash?

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

Gold has now fallen below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025, and suddenly everyone is proclaiming the bull market is dead. On June 24, spot gold fell to an intraday low of approximately $3,973.79, breaking below the $4,000 level for the first time in seven months. On June 25, gold remained under pressure, trading around $3,982.49. From its January record high near $5,595 an ounce, gold has now declined more than 28%, approaching the 30% correction our computer models had been pointing toward. Markets move in cycles, not straight lines. A correction of this magnitude frightens the late buyers into dumping their positions at precisely the time our computer indicated this washout would unfold.

During my latest interview with Mining, I warned that gold had become extremely overextended and that a major correction into this time period should surprise no one. I also explained that simply replacing the Federal Reserve chairman would not magically produce lower interest rates if inflation continued to accelerate. The market is now beginning to recognize that reality. Expectations for tighter monetary policy under Kevin Warsh, a stronger U.S. dollar, and reduced fears of an immediate Middle East escalation combined to create the perfect environment for a sharp liquidation.

What most analysts continue to miss is that a correction does not automatically signal the end of a secular bull market. The sovereign debt crisis has not disappeared. Europe’s financial problems have not been solved. Governments everywhere continue borrowing at unsustainable levels while geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Capital moves in waves, and violent corrections are a normal feature of every major bull market. During periods of international uncertainty, it is entirely possible for both gold and the U.S. dollar to strengthen together as capital flees political instability and sovereign debt risk around the world. Those who mistake a cyclical correction for the end of the trend usually discover they sold at exactly the wrong time.

This is why relying on opinion is so dangerous. The computer has no emotion, no political bias, and no personal agenda. It follows the movement of global capital. While everyone was chasing gold near $5,600 in January, the models warned that a significant correction was approaching. Now that fear has returned and commentators are declaring the bull market over after a decline to roughly $3,975, the majority is once again reacting emotionally instead of understanding the cycle. Markets rarely reward the majority. They reward those who recognize the trend beneath the volatility.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge just delivered another reminder that inflation has not been defeated. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, the highest annual reading in three years, after climbing 0.4% during the month alone. Even stripping out food and energy, the so-called “core” PCE increased another 0.3% in May and now stands at 3.4% annually, still nearly double the Fed’s mythical 2% target. This is now the third consecutive month that inflation has accelerated rather than cooled. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased another 0.7% during May despite prices continuing to rise. People are still spending, but they are increasingly financing that spending by drawing down savings rather than enjoying genuine increases in purchasing power.

This is precisely why I have said repeatedly that simply replacing the Fed chairman changes nothing. Kevin Warsh inherits the same Keynesian institution that has governed monetary policy for decades. The politicians want lower interest rates because governments are drowning in debt and every percentage point increase dramatically raises interest costs. But central bankers cannot simply ignore inflation when it is moving back above 4%. Markets continue to fantasize that a new chairman somehow has a magic wand. That is political wishful thinking, not economics.

If inflation continues to reaccelerate, the pressure to raise rates will become overwhelming regardless of who occupies the chairman’s office. The Fed follows its mandate, and inflation above 4% leaves very little room for political fantasies.

Many commentators immediately blamed the increase entirely on higher oil prices during the recent Middle East conflict. Energy certainly contributed, but that explanation is far too simplistic. Core inflation excludes food and energy, yet it also accelerated to its highest level since late 2023. That tells us inflationary pressures have spread throughout the broader economy. Housing, services, transportation, insurance, labor costs, tariffs, and supply-chain disruptions all continue feeding higher prices. This is exactly why I have argued that reducing inflation to a single commodity price misses the broader cyclical forces driving the economy. Once inflation becomes embedded throughout the system, it becomes far more difficult to eliminate than politicians care to admit.

The markets continue to misunderstand another important point. Rising interest rates are not automatically bearish. Historically, rates tend to rise alongside strong capital concentration and expanding markets because money competes for returns. Rates generally collapse during bear markets and recessions when capital desperately seeks safety. We are entering a period where geopolitical instability, sovereign debt problems across Europe, and international capital flight continue funneling money into the United States. That capital flow can support both the U.S. dollar and financial markets even while interest rates remain elevated. The old Keynesian assumption that higher rates automatically destroy markets has repeatedly failed during previous international crises.

The broader issue extends far beyond one inflation report. Governments worldwide have accumulated debt levels that cannot realistically be serviced under permanently elevated interest rates. Every central bank now finds itself trapped between inflation and sovereign debt. Lower rates encourage inflation and currency instability. Higher rates increase government financing costs and expose the insolvency of highly indebted nations. That is why sovereign debt remains the defining issue of this decade. Inflation is not simply about gasoline or groceries. It is the symptom of governments that borrowed far beyond any sustainable level and now face the consequences.

Our models continue to point toward rising volatility into 2026 as the Panic Cycle unfolds. War, capital migration, sovereign debt stress, and declining confidence in government institutions are converging simultaneously. The latest PCE report is simply another confirmation that inflation has not disappeared. It merely paused before beginning its next advance. Those expecting a smooth return to the low-inflation world of the last decade are preparing for a future that no longer exists.

China has now openly declared that it believes it has the legal right to pursue people beyond its own borders under its new Ethnic Unity Law, which takes effect on July 1. Beijing insists the law is “legitimate, lawful, necessary, and feasible,” and argues that every nation has the right to suppress separatism. The legislation extends legal liability to individuals and organizations outside China accused of undermining what Beijing defines as “ethnic unity” or promoting separatism. This is no longer simply domestic legislation. It is a declaration that China intends to extend its legal reach far beyond its own borders.

The key nation to watch is Taiwan. Taipei immediately warned that the law could become another legal weapon against Taiwanese officials, politicians, academics, journalists, business leaders, and anyone Beijing considers supportive of independence. China has steadily expanded its legal framework over the past several years, beginning with sanctions, travel bans, and criminal guidelines aimed at so-called Taiwan separatists. Now it is broadening that authority by explicitly stating that people overseas can also be held accountable. This is another step in a process that has been unfolding piece by piece rather than overnight.

Taiwan has every reason to take this law seriously because Beijing has followed a similar playbook before. After imposing the National Security Law on Hong Kong in 2020, authorities steadily expanded its reach beyond the territory itself. Arrest warrants and bounties were issued for pro-democracy activists living overseas, passports were canceled, assets targeted, and pressure was applied to dissidents residing in Britain, Australia, and elsewhere. Hong Kong has also invoked national security powers against exiled activists abroad and offered financial rewards for information leading to their capture.

This new Ethnic Unity Law appears to follow the same pattern by creating another legal foundation that Beijing could use against Taiwanese politicians, academics, journalists, business leaders, and overseas supporters of Taiwanese independence. The first battle is always legal, the second is political, and only then does it become military. That is why Taiwan remains the critical flashpoint to watch as we move toward the 2027 War Cycle.

People continue looking only at military exercises and naval deployments, but the first stages of every major conflict are often legal, economic, and political. Governments create the legal justification long before they consider military action. Once laws are in place claiming jurisdiction beyond national borders, the political foundation has already been established.

This is why Taiwan remains the market everyone should be watching. The issue is no longer simply whether Beijing intends to reunify with Taiwan. The question is how far China is prepared to project its authority beyond its own borders. As sovereign debt pressures rise, geopolitical tensions intensify, and the global order continues to fracture, Taiwan remains one of the most significant pressure points in the world economy. Capital follows political risk, and our models continue to indicate that this region will remain one of the defining geopolitical stories of this decade.

India’s imports of Russian crude oil have surged to a record high, with Moscow now supplying more than half of the country’s crude oil requirements. According to recent reports, Russian oil accounted for over 50% of India’s imports in June after a temporary US sanctions waiver expired. This development is far more significant than most people realize. It once again demonstrates that governments can impose sanctions, issue political declarations, and threaten economic consequences, but markets ultimately follow economic self-interest.

From the beginning, I argued that sanctions against Russia would not produce the outcome Western policymakers expected. Russia is not a small isolated economy. It is one of the world’s largest commodity producers. It exports oil, natural gas, fertilizers, metals, wheat, and countless other essential resources. The assumption that the world would simply stop buying Russian commodities ignored economic reality. Someone always buys discounted energy. In this case, India has emerged as one of the primary beneficiaries.

Before the Ukraine conflict, Russia supplied only a tiny portion of India’s crude imports. Today it has become India’s dominant supplier. Why? Because India is acting in its own national interest. Western governments may view energy through a geopolitical lens, but developing nations view it through the lens of economic survival. Cheap energy lowers production costs, supports industrial growth, and helps maintain economic competitiveness. India is not going to sacrifice its future to satisfy the foreign policy objectives of Brussels or Washington.

What makes this situation particularly revealing is that Europe itself continues finding indirect ways to consume Russian energy. Russian crude is refined in third countries and re-enters global markets in various forms.

The broader implication concerns the changing structure of the global economy. For decades, the United States and Europe largely dictated the rules of international commerce. That era is changing. Countries such as India, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and others are increasingly pursuing independent policies based on their own interests rather than automatically aligning with Western objectives. India’s continued expansion of Russian oil purchases is part of that larger trend.

What is remarkable is how many policymakers continue measuring success based on announcements rather than outcomes. The objective was supposedly to reduce Russia’s energy revenues. Instead, Russia redirected enormous volumes of crude toward Asia while maintaining a critical role in global commodity markets. India secured discounted supplies. China expanded purchases. New shipping networks emerged. Markets adapted exactly as they always do.

This is one reason our models continue pointing toward rising geopolitical and economic fragmentation into the years ahead. The world is dividing into competing spheres of influence. Nations are becoming less willing to subordinate their economic interests to foreign policy agendas crafted thousands of miles away. India’s record purchases of Russian oil are not simply an energy story. They are a sign of a much larger transformation in the global order. The sanctions era has revealed that governments can issue commands, but they cannot repeal economic reality. Markets always find a way.