Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

PRIVATE BLOG –
The EU on Hospice Waiting to Die: Why the Journey Sometimes Takes Longer

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

A study from the UK has revealed that people may be living longer on paper, but they’re more likely to spend their final years in poor health. Healthy life expectancy plummeted to roughly 60–61 years despite overall life expectancy hovering around 81. In practical terms, this means that a large portion of the population is now living a decade or more in declining health before even reaching retirement.

This decline in quality of life is being driven by a combination of factors that governments continue to treat as separate problems rather than part of a single systemic breakdown. Obesity alone has reached levels where roughly two-thirds of adults in the UK are now overweight or obese, with about 30% classified as obese, a figure that has steadily risen over decades. This is not just about weight, because obesity directly increases the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and even mental health disorders, creating a compounding effect where individuals become progressively sicker over time rather than recovering.

“The UK has the highest levels of obesity in western Europe and there has been a surge in mental ill health, especially among young people,” a data analyst told the BBC, creating “a significant economic cost, with poor health driving people out of the workforce and locking young people out of education, employment and training.”

Mental health is following the same trajectory, particularly among younger generations where roughly one in five adults suffer from common mental health conditions. Rates among those aged 16–24 have climbed sharply over the past decade. The data shows this is not stabilizing but accelerating, with younger people entering adulthood already burdened with anxiety, depression, and other conditions that historically emerged later in life. When you combine this with rising physical health problems, you are looking at a population that is both physically and psychologically weaker than previous generations.

The economic consequences are already becoming evident, as poor health is increasingly removing people from the workforce while preventing younger individuals from entering it in the first place. Reports show growing economic inactivity tied directly to long-term illness, alongside rising numbers of young people not in education, employment, or training. This creates a feedback loop in which a shrinking productive base must support an expanding population that is dealing with chronic health issues, placing further strain on public finances and economic growth.

COVID accelerated this entire process in a way that policymakers are reluctant to fully acknowledge. Health data now shows a persistent decline in reported good health since the pandemic, alongside rising dissatisfaction and long-term illness. You cannot suspend normal life for extended periods without long-term consequences, yet governments continue to frame COVID as a temporary disruption rather than a turning point that altered the trajectory of public health.

At the same time, the cost of living crisis has compounded these issues by reducing access to healthier food, increasing stress, and limiting people’s ability to invest in their own well-being. Surveys show that households remain under pressure from high food and energy costs, with many cutting back on discretionary spending even as inflation moderates. When people are forced to prioritize survival over health, diet quality declines, preventative care is delayed, and stress levels rise, all of which feed directly into both physical and mental deterioration.

There is also the uncomfortable reality that modern food itself has become a contributing factor, with the widespread availability of ultra-processed foods, high sugar consumption, and limited regulatory intervention creating conditions in which unhealthy choices are often the cheapest and most accessible. Policymakers discuss obesity as if it were purely behavioral, yet the data shows long-term structural changes in diet and lifestyle that align closely with rising chronic disease. But it is cheaper to mass produce barely edible junk with a longer shelf life, possibly grown from seeds that were genetically modified to withstand poor weather conditions and pests.

What emerges from all of this is a clear pattern where people are not necessarily dying younger, but they are living longer in a state of declining health, which represents a fundamental deterioration in quality of life. This is the hallmark of a system under stress, where economic pressures, policy decisions, and societal changes converge to produce outcomes that cannot be reversed through simple healthcare spending alone.

Britain’s retail sector has just posted the worst collapse in sales in more than 40 years, and this is precisely the type of economic deterioration our models have been warning would emerge across Europe into 2028. The Confederation of British Industry reported that its retail sales volume balance plunged to -68 in April from -52 in March, marking the lowest reading since the series began in 1983. An astonishing 77% of retailers reported declining sales while only 9% reported increases.

This is the type of collapse normally associated with a major recession or sovereign crisis environment. The mainstream press continues trying to isolate every economic problem into separate headlines, but the reality is that Europe is entering a broad systemic downturn. Consumer confidence is collapsing because households are being crushed simultaneously by inflation, energy costs, taxes, war fears, and declining real economic growth. Britain may no longer be formally inside the European Union, but its economy remains deeply tied to the broader European financial structure.

The CBI survey showed expectations for May falling further to -60, the weakest outlook since the COVID lockdown period in March 2021. That is an extraordinary statistic because it demonstrates businesses themselves see no near-term recovery.

The important detail here is that this collapse is occurring before the full economic consequences of the Middle East conflict have even filtered through the system. Reuters specifically noted that the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sharply increased inflation fears among households. Europe remains highly vulnerable to energy disruptions because politicians deliberately destroyed domestic energy independence under the Net Zero agenda.

Germany shut nuclear plants. Britain reduced North Sea production. Europe sanctioned Russian energy while simultaneously deindustrializing itself with climate regulations. They constructed an economic model dependent on cheap imported energy and permanent globalization, then shattered both pillars at the same time.

Now the consumer is breaking. The CBI itself admitted that “weak consumer confidence was weighing on spending in April.” That phrase understates the seriousness of the situation. Consumers are not merely cautious. They are running out of purchasing power.

Food inflation remains elevated. Energy costs remain structurally high. Mortgage rates across Europe have exploded compared to the zero-rate era. Governments continue raising taxes while simultaneously expanding spending on migration programs, military expenditures, green subsidies, and Ukraine funding.

What people fail to understand is that consumer spending is the final domino in an economic cycle. Manufacturing weakens first, business investment slows second, layoffs begin third, and finally the consumer collapses. Europe is now entering that final phase.

The ECM has been projecting that Europe would enter a depressionary phase into 2028 because confidence in government was collapsing alongside sovereign debt sustainability. This is not merely about economics. It is political. European governments continue behaving as though they can tax, regulate, borrow, and spend infinitely without consequence.

What we are witnessing now is the early-stage consumer retrenchment that typically precedes a much larger sovereign debt crisis. Governments across Europe are already discussing wealth taxes, exit taxes, digital asset registries, CBDCs, and enhanced financial surveillance precisely because they know capital is leaving and growth is evaporating.

Britain’s retailers are now begging the government to lower electricity bills, reduce property taxes, and avoid new employment regulations that increase business costs. Yet the political class across Europe remains completely disconnected from economic reality. Their answer to every crisis is more regulation, more taxation, and more centralized control.

This is exactly why capital has continued flowing toward the United States despite all its own political chaos. International capital always seeks the least-worst alternative during periods of sovereign stress. Europe has become openly hostile toward productivity, investment, industry, and private wealth itself.

The collapse in UK retail activity is not an isolated British story. It is another confirmation that the European depression into 2028 is unfolding exactly on schedule according to the ECM.

The European Commission has now openly published a two-volume study examining “net wealth taxes,” “capital taxes,” and perhaps most alarming of all, “exit taxes.” They are no longer hiding the agenda behind slogans about “fairness” or “solidarity.” The report openly discusses how to tax wealth, how to monitor ownership, how to close compliance gaps, and how to prevent capital from escaping. This is precisely what I have warned was coming as governments across Europe enter the terminal phase of a sovereign debt crisis.

The study was commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union and examines wealth taxation systems across Europe and beyond, including France, Germany, Spain, Norway, Switzerland, and Colombia. The report specifically focuses on recurring wealth taxes, inheritance taxes, capital gains taxes, and exit taxes designed to capture wealth before individuals relocate outside the jurisdiction.

The timing is everything. Europe’s economy is collapsing into what our Economic Confidence Model has projected would become a prolonged depressionary period into 2028. Manufacturing across Germany has been imploding, energy prices remain structurally elevated because of the self-inflicted sanctions war and Net Zero agenda, and capital has been fleeing Europe into the United States for years. The EU knows this. They see the money leaving. They understand that confidence in European governments is collapsing, and instead of reforming policy, they are moving toward containment.

The report openly admits that wealth taxes historically have not generated substantial revenue because the wealthy either legally restructure assets, move wealth offshore, or physically leave the jurisdiction altogether. In essence, they’re admitting capital flight is the central problem.

This is why exit taxes are becoming so important to Brussels. An exit tax is effectively a confiscation mechanism imposed when someone attempts to leave a country or transfer assets abroad. Governments tax unrealized gains before assets are sold. In other words, they tax theoretical paper wealth simply because someone wants to escape the jurisdiction. The report discusses the importance of tracking beneficial ownership, real estate registries, digitalized tax systems, and international information sharing.

That is the real objective here. This is not about “tax fairness.” This is about trapping capital inside Europe before the sovereign debt crisis accelerates. I have warned repeatedly that governments always begin with taxation but eventually transition toward outright restrictions on capital movement. Once governments become desperate enough, taxes alone no longer suffice. They require surveillance, digital tracking, asset registries, CBDCs, and eventually capital controls. Europe is moving down that road faster than anywhere else in the world.

The ECM has consistently shown that Europe faces the greatest structural risk heading into this cycle because Brussels destroyed competitiveness through regulation, climate extremism, and endless war spending. Germany, once the industrial engine of Europe, has seen factories shutting down while energy-intensive industries relocate abroad. France is drowning in debt and social unrest. The UK is outside the EU politically but remains economically tied to the same collapsing European model. Youth unemployment across parts of southern Europe remains catastrophic even before the next recession fully arrives.

Meanwhile, the EU continues funding Ukraine endlessly while demanding military expansion under NATO pressure, despite already carrying unsustainable sovereign debt burdens. They cannot finance pensions, healthcare, migration costs, green subsidies, military spending, and debt servicing simultaneously. The mathematics simply do not work anymore.

This is where the wealth tax discussion enters the picture. The report repeatedly references growing wealth concentration and the desire for “greater roles” for wealth-related taxes in generating revenue. The political class sees private savings as the solution to public insolvency. They do not intend to cut government. They intend to harvest private capital.

We have seen this pattern throughout history. Governments facing debt crises always move against private wealth. Roosevelt confiscated gold in 1933. Capital controls spread across Europe repeatedly throughout the 20th century. Cyprus seized bank deposits in 2013. During every major sovereign crisis, governments eventually redefine ownership rights.

The danger today is that technology now allows governments to track nearly every transaction digitally. The EU report specifically highlights “effective exchange of information on beneficial owners,” asset registration systems, and the “digitalisation of tax administrations.” In plain English, they want total visibility over wealth.

One section states the importance of “effective exchange of information on beneficial owners.” That is bureaucratic language for cross-border financial surveillance. They want governments sharing ownership information internationally so assets cannot disappear outside the system. There is discussion of “real estate and asset registration.” This is why governments worldwide are pushing centralized digital registries. They want a complete inventory of who owns what before the sovereign debt crisis fully erupts. “Effectiveness depends on administrative capacity, data availability, enforcement and international cooperation, including exchange of information.” Again, this is why we are seeing extreme data harvesting measures globally.

People still do not understand where this is heading. They assume wealth taxes only target billionaires. That is how every confiscatory system begins. Then thresholds decline over time because governments discover there are not enough billionaires to finance the welfare state. France’s wealth tax experience already demonstrated this problem. Wealth taxes often drive entrepreneurs, investors, and productive capital out of the country while generating far less revenue than projected. Even the EU study acknowledges design flaws, exemptions, compliance problems, and mobility responses.

This is exactly why our models projected Europe entering a depressionary cycle into 2028 while capital continues concentrating in the United States despite all the political chaos in Washington. Capital always seeks the least-worst alternative during sovereign debt crises. Europe has become hostile toward capital formation itself. They tax productivity, regulate energy, suppress agriculture, destroy industry, and now openly discuss how to prevent wealth from leaving.

The combination of wealth taxes, exit taxes, digital IDs, CBDCs, beneficial ownership registries, and expanding surveillance powers should terrify anyone with assets inside Europe. Once capital controls formally arrive, it will already be too late. Governments never announce confiscation in advance. They implement it during emergencies.

The EU depression into 2028 is not merely an economic downturn. It is a political transformation phase where governments become increasingly authoritarian as confidence collapses. Civil unrest rises, taxation intensifies, and restrictions on movement and capital expand simultaneously. That is precisely what our ECM has been warning about for years.

If you are sitting in Europe waiting for politicians to reverse course, you are gambling with your future. Get your money out of Europe while you still can.

South Korea has now overtaken the United Kingdom to become the world’s eighth-largest stock market. The total market capitalization of Korean equities has exploded more than 45% in 2026 alone to roughly $4.04 trillion, while the UK has barely moved, rising about 3% to $3.99 trillion. What is most revealing is that, as recently as the end of 2024, the UK market was about twice the size of South Korea’s, underscoring just how quickly capital can migrate when the cycle turns.

The benchmark KOSPI has gone vertical, breaking above 6,600 and pushing total market capitalization beyond $4 trillion for the first time. This is not a random rally. It is concentrated, powerful, and driven by a very specific sector. Semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now account for more than 40% of the index, which tells you immediately this is a capital flow into AI infrastructure, not a broad-based economic boom.

Compare that to the FTSE 100, which represents the largest companies listed in London. The UK market remains dominated by financials, energy, and consumer staples. These are legacy sectors. They do not attract speculative capital in the same way that technology does during a cycle shift. The FTSE has gained roughly 4% this year, which is not catastrophic, but it is completely disconnected from where the momentum is flowing globally.

When you step back and look at the historical performance, the contrast becomes even clearer. The KOSPI began with a base value of 100 in 1980 and spent decades struggling to break major psychological barriers like 1,000 and then 2,000. The real acceleration came after 2020, with the index pushing past 3,000 in 2021 and then exploding higher into 2025–2026, where it surged through 4,000, 5,000, and now over 6,500 in rapid succession. That is not normal growth, that is a vertical phase driven by concentrated capital inflows.

The FTSE 100, by contrast, has historically been far more stable and far less dynamic. It represents mature, dividend-heavy companies, and while that provides consistency, it does not produce explosive upside during periods of technological transformation. It is the difference between a capital preservation market and a capital attraction market. The UK has become the former.

This is exactly what the Economic Confidence Model has always shown. Capital does not move randomly, it seeks opportunity, and more importantly, it seeks momentum. When a new technological cycle emerges, whether it was railroads, automobiles, or now artificial intelligence, capital flows toward the regions that dominate that infrastructure. Right now, that is Asia, not Europe.

What is unfolding in Portugal is a perfect example of how the cycle turns quietly before the public even realizes what is taking place. The arms industry there is now expanding at a pace that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago, yet this is precisely what happens when geopolitical tensions rise and governments suddenly rediscover the need for hard power.

According to Deutsche Welle, Portugal’s defense sector is gaining momentum as companies shift toward producing military equipment, drones, and advanced technologies, driven largely by the war in Ukraine and the broader push across Europe to rearm. The country is no longer simply importing defense capabilities, it is trying to build them domestically, which reflects a structural change rather than a temporary response.

You have to understand what this really means. Europe allowed its defense industry to decay for decades under the assumption that war was a relic of the past. Now, suddenly, governments are pouring money into rebuilding capacity, and the private sector is following that capital. Portugal is just one piece of that puzzle, but it is significant because it shows how even smaller economies are being pulled into this broader military buildup.

The numbers confirm the shift. Portugal has already raised defense spending to about €6.12 billion, reaching roughly 2% of GDP ahead of schedule, and is now seeking billions more in EU-backed funding to modernize its military with drones, armored vehicles, and naval systems. This is not defensive housekeeping. This is preparation. Once governments begin allocating capital at this scale, they are not planning for peace.

I have said many times that war is the ultimate driver of technological advancement and capital concentration. That is exactly what you are seeing here. Portugal’s emerging arms industry is not growing in isolation. It is part of a continent-wide shift where governments are trying to rebuild military capacity after decades of neglect. The problem is that you cannot simply flip a switch and create an industrial base overnight. Europe deindustrialized much of its defense sector, and now it faces capacity constraints, shortages, and rising costs just to produce basic military equipment.

Governments are attempting to accelerate production at the same time they are dealing with economic stagnation, energy crises, and rising debt. That combination historically leads to instability, not strength. You cannot sustain long-term military expansion without a strong economic foundation, and Europe has been systematically undermining that foundation with its own policies.

Portugal’s case also highlights the geopolitical alignment taking place behind the curtain. While some European nations are talking about strategic autonomy, Portugal has made it clear it remains committed to NATO and the transatlantic alliance. That tells you this is not about independence. It is about preparing for a broader conflict structure where alliances become critical.

From a cyclical perspective, this aligns perfectly with the convergence we have been tracking. The war cycle and civil unrest cycle are colliding into this 2026–2027 window, and what you are seeing now is the early phase of capital shifting into defense. This is always how it begins. First comes the funding, then the industrial buildup, and finally the political justification. By the time the public fully understands what is happening, the trajectory is already locked in.

Portugal is not becoming a military power overnight, but that is not the point. The point is that even smaller nations are now being drawn into the rearmament cycle. When that happens across an entire continent, you are no longer looking at isolated policy decisions. You are looking at a systemic shift toward confrontation.

They parade through the streets chanting “no kings,” pretending to stand against authority and concentrated power, yet the moment a real monarch steps into the room, they rise to their feet applauding as if royalty itself suddenly became fashionable again. This is not merely hypocrisy, it is a revealing window into how politics operates beneath the surface.

The spectacle surrounding King Charles III being welcomed with cheers and a standing ovation by the very same political faction that markets itself as anti-establishment exposes the contradiction in plain sight. They rail against what they call authoritarianism at home, yet they celebrate it abroad when it suits the narrative. It reflects a deeper pattern I have warned about repeatedly, where ideology is merely a tool and consistency is abandoned the moment it becomes inconvenient.

If you strip away the slogans, what you find is that these movements are not opposed to centralized authority. Quite the opposite. They are deeply in favor of it, provided they are the ones holding the reins. The idea of “no kings” is simply branding. It resonates emotionally, particularly with younger audiences who have been taught to distrust institutions, but in practice, the same people will support unelected bodies, international organizations, and even hereditary monarchies when those entities align with their broader political agenda.

Governments and political movements always gravitate toward structures that consolidate authority. Whether it is a monarchy, a bureaucracy, or a supranational institution, the form does not matter nearly as much as the control it provides. That is why you see politicians condemning “elite power” one day and then celebrating it the next when it comes wrapped in the right symbolism.

The public is told one story while a completely different set of actions unfolds behind the curtain. They are encouraged to oppose “kings” in theory, yet applaud them in practice, because the real objective is not to dismantle hierarchy, but to reshape it.

President Donald Trump’s Blockade will propel a depression in Europe. This may be the time for China to do the same to Taiwan. Trump has told his aides to get ready for a risky, extended blockade of Iran. The computer warned from the outset that this would NOT be a quick in-and-out as Netanyahu told Trump. It’s always his same tactics – assassinate the leadership and the government will fall. Netanyahu is a HIGHLY dangerous psychopath in my opinion. He has NEVER been correct even once. And as this clip from his 2002 testimony before Congress, cheering on the Iraq invasion for weapons that never existed, shows, he was the instigator of the Iraq War and propelled the US into escalating debt, for he does not give a shit about anyone but himself.

Based on the actions of Netanyahu, there is no way that I, as Iran, would now surrender nukes. I would be on high speed to get one up ASAP. That is the only way to prevent another invasion. Pakistan and North Korea have nukes. That is the only reason they are left alone. Iraq was a wake-up call. Without nukes, you are now vulnerable.

US sources are relaying that this will be a drawn-out, Cold War-style conflict, and Trump has expressed frustration with Iran’s latest proposal to end the clash, which has now entered its third month. They are consistent and want a guarantee on permanently ending the fighting, followed by discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and then finally a deal involving Iran’s nuclear program. The computer shows this will begin to heat up from mid-May.