Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

For years, politicians across the Western world have insisted that windmills and solar panels would power the future while reliable energy sources were dismantled in the name of climate policy. Now reality is beginning to intrude. Canada is preparing to unveil a national electricity strategy centered on expanding nuclear power as governments confront a basic problem they ignored for years — electricity demand is rising far faster than their green policies ever anticipated.

Artificial intelligence, data centers, and electrification mandates are dramatically increasing power demand across North America. At the same time, governments closed coal plants, restricted natural gas, and stalled nuclear projects for ideological reasons. The result has been rising electricity prices and growing concern about long-term energy security.

Canada is now quietly acknowledging what engineers and economists have been saying for years. Nuclear power remains one of the few reliable baseload energy sources capable of supporting a modern industrial economy. Several new reactors are already planned or under construction, and the government’s upcoming strategy is expected to accelerate those projects.

Canada is building a new generation of nuclear reactors known as small modular reactors (SMRs). The most important project is the Darlington New Nuclear Project in Ontario. Ontario Power Generation has begun construction of the first BWRX-300 small modular reactor at the Darlington site, with the reactor expected to come online around 2029–2030.

The Darlington project is significant because it is expected to become the first grid-scale SMR operating in a G7 country. The government has approved a full fleet of four SMRs at the site, which together could produce about 1,200 megawatts of electricity — enough to power roughly 1.2 million homes. Each reactor is a GE Hitachi BWRX-300 design that produces around 300 megawatts of power and is smaller and less complex than traditional nuclear plants, which is intended to reduce construction costs and speed up deployment.

At the same time, Canada is completing major refurbishment projects on existing nuclear plants such as the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station. This refurbishment extends the facility’s life for decades, preserves thousands of jobs, and continues to produce reliable baseload electricity.

Beyond individual projects, the Canadian government is preparing to release a national electricity and nuclear strategy to accelerate nuclear development and provide investors with clearer policy direction as electricity demand rises sharply.

This shift exposes the contradiction that has defined Western energy policy. Governments attempted to restructure entire energy systems based on political narratives rather than economic reality. Now they are discovering that the industrial world cannot function without stable, large-scale electricity generation. The return to nuclear is less about environmental policy and more about economic survival.

I will be speaking in Vancouver on March 31 at the 2026 World Outlook Conference. The discussion will be tailored to the Canadian investor, as it is paramount to understand what is on the horizon. The next few years will be volatile to say the least, and the best we can do is to prepare for what is to come. I have refrained from sharing the full scope of the glaring Turning Points and Panic Cycles flashing on Socrates, but I am prepared to give attendees the full story.

The press is reporting that Venezuela is opening its mining sector to American companies, allowing foreign investment to extract gold, diamonds, and rare earth minerals after the National Assembly approved the first step in rewriting the country’s mining laws. The reform extends mining concessions from 20 to 30 years and allows international arbitration in disputes, clearly designed to attract Western capital that had previously been locked out under the old socialist system.

The real story is rare earth minerals and the global race to secure them. Washington has already authorized transactions involving Venezuelan gold through the state mining company Minerven and is working to bring American mining firms into the country. The move comes after the United States began reopening Venezuela’s oil sector to American companies as well, signaling that the real objective is securing access to resources that have become strategically vital.

The deeper issue is that the United States does not control the resources it needs to maintain its technological and military dominance. Rare earth minerals are essential for missiles, fighter jets, radar systems, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. As I have explained before, America’s defense supply chain depends on materials it does not control. That is a serious vulnerability in any geopolitical confrontation.

China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, accounting for the majority of production and refining. In fact, China supplied about 71% of U.S. imports of rare earth compounds and metals in recent years and controls much of the processing capacity for these materials. These minerals are not just another commodity. They are the foundation of modern industrial technology, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and the entire defense sector.

This is why Washington has been quietly pursuing mineral deals around the world. The United States has already secured preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, which include significant deposits of graphite, titanium, lithium, and rare earth metals. Ukraine holds roughly 5% of the world’s critical raw materials, making it strategically important in the mineral race. The mineral agreement between Washington and Kyiv was never just about economic reconstruction. It was about securing long-term access to materials needed for modern industry and military technology.

Japan has also been drawn into this geopolitical struggle. After China restricted rare earth exports in the past, Tokyo began aggressively diversifying its supply chain and securing new mineral partnerships to reduce dependence on Beijing. The entire world is now scrambling to secure access to the materials that underpin modern technology.

Venezuela now enters that equation. The country is believed to possess significant untapped mineral deposits. If these resources are opened to Western investment, it will provide another potential supply source outside of China’s control. That is why this move is important. It is not about reviving Venezuela’s economy. It is about the strategic mineral competition that is quietly reshaping global politics.

Behind every war and every geopolitical confrontation lies the same fundamental issue – resources. Oil dominated the last century. Rare earths and critical minerals will dominate the next. The United States understands that its technological future depends on securing these materials, and that explains the sudden interest in places like Ukraine and now Venezuela.

The public hears about democracy, sanctions, and diplomacy. But the real game is being played beneath the surface. Control the resources and you control the future of industry, defense, and economic power. Venezuela’s coerced decision to open its mineral wealth is just another move on that global chessboard.

The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter.

This sudden deceleration is not a small revision. Data signals that economic momentum was already fading before we entered 2026. Consumer spending was revised down significantly, government spending collapsed due to the 43-day shutdown, and exports also declined. The key measure of domestic demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, slowed to just 1.9%, down from 2.9% in the prior quarter.

For the full year, the U.S. economy grew about 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, confirming that the economy has already been losing momentum. When you look at the quarterly pattern, the shift becomes clear. Growth surged at 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3, only to suddenly collapse to less than 1% as we moved into the final months of the year.

At the same time, inflation has not disappeared. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge shows core inflation running around 3.1% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. That means the economy is now slowing while inflation remains stubbornly elevated.

The labor market is also beginning to reflect the shift. Job growth has slowed significantly, and some reports indicate monthly job losses are beginning to appear as businesses become more cautious heading into 2026. When GDP weakens and employment softens simultaneously, it typically signals that the business cycle is turning.

But the bigger issue moving forward is war. The United States and its allies are now entering a major geopolitical conflict environment with the ongoing confrontation involving Iran. Rising oil prices tied to that conflict are already beginning to ripple through the global economy. Energy shocks historically feed directly into inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth.

That is why the coming quarters could become increasingly volatile. Economic growth is already weakening while inflation remains above target. If energy prices surge due to war or supply disruptions, inflation will rise again as the economy slows further. That is the textbook setup for stagflation.

From a cyclical perspective, this aligns with what the Economic Confidence Model has been warning about. The period into 2026 was always expected to be a turning point as capital flows shift globally amid rising geopolitical tension. War has historically been one of the biggest disruptors of economic growth, and once energy prices rise sharply, the ripple effects quickly spread through transportation, manufacturing, and food prices. In other words, the slowdown we are seeing now may only be the opening stage.

There is a critical failure in the Neocons’ playbook. They assumed that Iran would NOT close the Strait of Hormuz, for they assumed that they would line it with mines and physically close the waterway, which would be suicidal for them as well. Still, they sought out and destroyed several of their mine laying ships. But Iran has been able to close the Strait with just threats. Ships headed to China are passing with no problem and the US is not doing anything about it fearing (1) it would be confrontational with China, and (2) it would cause oil prices to rise even higher. Iran attacks ships selectively. That is the fear tactic that has shut the Strait without mines or Iranian naval ships.

Our greatest problem here is that we DO NOT know what the goal of this war is supposed to be. Trump has said regime change, end nuclear weapons, as well as degrade the Iranian military. As long as he does not clearly state what is the objective, then this leaves the door open to declare victory and exit. If he says it was just to degrade the military, then he can declare victory and end it tomorrow. But why then assassinate the Ayatollah? That made it seem to be the regime change and calling to the people to rise up was in line with that.

Iran has stated that it 400 kg of uranium is under ruble and they have no intention of digging it up. If that is true, then the nuclear argument is off the table. Yet to do either the regime change or the seizure of the nuclear material will necessitate boots on the ground and there is no real support in America for that.

No matter what the truth may be, the perception remains that this is Israel’s war and we have participated in the targeting and killing of the Ayatollah, which was Netanyahu’s personal policy of decapitation. Netanyahu sees as Iran as the Amalek of 1 Samuel 15:2-3 he seems to believe justifies genocide.

“This is what the LORD Almighty says: ‘I will punish the Amalekites for what they did to Israel when they waylaid them as they came up from Egypt. Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys. ‘”

Nearly one-third of Americans expect world to end in their lifetime

Armageddon fears, that were once associated with the crazies within of society, are now commonplace across North America. We also see biblical prophecies behind the decisions of Netanyahu on one side and the Shia Muslims on the other. This is becoming a dominant concern with many viewing the Middle East war as leading to Armageddon.

PRIVATE BLOG – Crash into April?

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QUESTION: Marty, looking at Socrates, it does not show that this release of 400 million barrels of oil will do much. Am I reading this correctly?

ANSWER: The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil into the global market, the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. This is just for show. However, it actually makes things far more vulnerable. This is all predicated on a quick victory with the conquest of Iran. If that assumption is wrong, this will not help.

1. MATHEMATICALLY INSUFFICIENT (won’t even cover 2-3 months of lost supply)
2. STRATEGICALLY STUPID (leaves U.S. vulnerable to future crises)
3. POLITICALLY DESPERATE (election-year panic move)
4. ECONOMICALLY FUTILE (treats symptom, not disease)

Let’s get real. Global oil consumption is about 100 million barrels/day (mb/d). U.S. consumption is about 20 million barrels/day. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz supply affects about 21 million barrels/day (21% of global supply).  Releasing 400 million barrels at the global consumption rate would last 19 days (400M ÷ 21M/day). There is no way this will calm markets in the long term.

As I have been warning since the turn in the ECM in 2024, the US would enter STAGFLATION but Europe would be more of an economic Depression. The Marxist agenda of the EU oppresses the economy and it has posted the lowest economic growth of the major powers in the world. They hatred of the rich and insistance on exploiting them is why the economic growth is pathetic. As I have said, the capitalization of just the NYSE is nore than all the exchanges of Europe, including London, combined.

The Trump administration has wisely invoked the Defense Production Act and had overriden California which shut down offshore oil operations in California.  Trump has wisely addressed oil supply disruption risks and reduce reliance on foreign crude by increasing domestic production. Releasing 400 million barrels is just not a real solution.

The Trump Administration has directed Sable Offshore Corp., an oil and gas company headquartered in Houston, to restore operations at the Santa Ynez Unit and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System off the coast of Santa Barbara. Failing to do so allows Iran to engage in a supply war like the 1970s. Trump is also lifting sanctions on Russia. The best thing to come out of this Iran War is to put a check against Zelensky.

I am still concerned about June/July. While President Trump said “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” on NBC on Saturday, saying that a “very solid” agreement would have to include a commitment by Tehran to abandon nuclear ambitions. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic is open to “any regional initiative that leads to a fair end to the war,” according to an interview published by the UK-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website on Sunday.

Let me cut through the diplomatic bullshit and tell you what’s really happening: Netanyahu is absolutely pushing for regime change in Iran, and Trump is going along with it. But the relationship is more complex than simple puppet-master dynamics.

NETANYAHU’S POSITION has been clear and consistent. He wants the complete destruction of Iranian regime (not just nuclear program, not just military degradation—REGIME CHANGE). He has wanted this for 40+ years (documented, consistent). He has stated this explicitly multiple times in recent months (post-Feb 28 strikes). The first strike was to implement his insane policy of DECAPITATION assuming that would cause the government to collapse assassinating Khamenei and the IRGC leadership.Let’s be clear. That is not “deterrence,” that’s REGIME CHANGE operation and Trump agreed.

TRUMP’S POSITION looking at his public statements, suggests  “maximum pressure,” “they must change behavior.” He has also made occasional regime change hints. His actions are consistent with regime change decapitation strikes, “every weapon” threats, no clear offramp for Iran. This presents the problem of no exit strategy all based on the assumption Netanyahu whispers in his ear that DECAPITATION will succeed. Yet, Trump is also transactional might accept “deal” if Iran capitulates completely, but that does not see likely based on our computer models. Netanyahu absolutely in his ear, but Trump has own motivations (political, ego, strategic)

The real question is: Why is Trump doing this BECAUSE Netanyahu demands it, or are their interests ALIGNED? It appears that Trump and Netanyahu both want regime change, yet for independent motivations. Netanyahu has been pushing Trump further/faster than Trump would go alone.

Netanyahu does have domestic US support he is using against Trump. The Evangelical base (30-40% of Trump’s coalition) are fanatically pro-Israel, see Iran as biblical enemy as the Amalek of 1 Samuel 15:2-3! Then there are the domestic Jewish donors who are also major Republican funding such as Sheldon Adelson’s widow Miriam, others—billions at stake. There is also the AIPAC influence, which is a powerful lobbying group that can make/break candidates. Add to this, the media support, which spins the Neocon agenda and is Pro-Israel amplifying Trump when he’s tough on Iran.

The Byzantine Empire did try to defeat the early Arab-Islamic Caliphates and lost a significant portion of its territory. However, the Empire managed to survive, fight back, and eventually reclaim some of its lost lands. Yet the conflict was not a single, short war but a protracted series of campaigns known as the Arab-Byzantine wars, spanning over four centuries from the 7th to the 11th century. The outcome was a mixture of catastrophic defeat and eventual resurgence. They conquered Constantinople and the last emperor died fighting on the walls trying to save the last remanent of the Roman Empire.

This war is pushing the system over the edge and at stake will indeed be the 2026 Midterm Elections. The vast majority of congressional Republicans are publicly supportive of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran. This does not help matters. My concern is that nobody seems to comprehend that this is NOT the same as Iraq. Saddam was just a head of state. This is a religious war as was the case in Afghanistan. There is no historical precedent for winning such a war when the core is to undermine or destroy a religion.

QUESTION: Marty; I was rereading the Middle East report from the 2023 WEC. You had everything pointing to this starting in 2025. Even your Wave 10 on Islam pointed to 2025. Do you still see this ending bad for Israel and a broadening war? It is obvious, the press is told to stay far away from you because they do not like your computer’s forecast. They treat you like they did Kondratieff because Stalin did like his cyclical forecast either.

HG

1. – Complete withdrawal of all U.S. military forces from the Middle East within 30 days
2. – Immediate lifting of all sanctions on Iran
3. – Payment of $500 billion in compensation

1. – Close the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic
2. – Pursue nuclear weapons development, including possible deployment
3. – Allow China and Russia to establish military bases on Iranian soil\

1. To international shipping nations: Allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz only if they expel U.S. and Israeli diplomats
2. To Azerbaijan: “Expel the Zionists” from its territory or face military consequences—a demand Baku has rejected as a violation of international law.

Talk about destiny: I even grew up at 314 South Lippincott Ave, Maple Shade, NJ.

QUESTION: Marty, I want to thank you for your warning about Blackrock. I took out 90% with the October high and the rest in January when Socrates showed a Panic Cycle Year in 2026. I did not invest in their Ukraine project. I heard because of your advice to stay out they could not raise any money. A BlackRock spokesperson admitted: “Obviously you cannot launch a fund with no money in it”

I can see that this is lining up with the ECM and war. Do you see this getting much worse into 2028?

KC

ANSWER: You are seeing them all preventing withdrawals – Blackrock, Black stone, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl. They were lending at high rates to businesses that are in trouble. About 40% with loans from these people have negative cash flows. I do not see this bottoming before mid 2027.

We are in a global recession that will bottom in August 2028. This war on Iran is braindead. I warned that all the models on crude, gasoline, and natural gas all had Directional Changes for 2025 and were pointing higher. I have also warned that the extreme target for oil by 2028 is $200-$225.

Even our Chaos Model picked 2025 and shows a gap until 2033. The war with Iran comes exactly on target for this economically is far worse that the Ukraine War because it is not just energy flowing through the Hormuz, but fertilizer and this will impact both gasoline as well as food. Trump’s advisors are biased Neocons. They see themselves as all powerful. They never consider the possibility of a loss and certainly never collateral damage. Here is Tony Blair’s apology for listening to Neocons for Iraq.

These people never understand markets and certainly not capital flows. All they see is their tactical objectives and never consider long-term. They are going the same all over again. Israel is getting pummeled. As some point, Netanyahu may push the button for he has no choice.

PRIVATE BLOG – Iran = Vietnam 2.0: Will Middle East War Turn Nuclear?

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