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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

2014 War Cyclew 2011 Conference 300x173

Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

The Plot to Seize Russia_3Dmockup_2 300x225

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Kevin Warsh and the End of the Powell Era

Inflation is a choice': Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh makes his pitch -  Scotsman Guide

Kevin Warsh is now stepping into one of the most difficult jobs at a time when inflation is rising again, energy prices are climbing because of the Middle East conflict, and confidence in central banks remains fragile. What immediately stands out is that Warsh is not another Jerome Powell. He has spent years criticizing the Federal Reserve itself, arguing that many of today’s economic problems were created by central bank policy rather than solved by it.

One of Warsh’s most important positions is his rejection of the idea that inflation was merely the result of supply chain disruptions or temporary events. He has repeatedly argued that excessive government spending and Federal Reserve policy fueled inflation. Reuters summarized his position by noting that Warsh views inflation as a consequence of policy decisions and has been highly critical of the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. That is a significant departure from the excuses that dominated the discussion over the past several years.

What I find interesting is that Warsh appears determined to dismantle many of the communication tools that have defined modern central banking. He has criticized “forward guidance,” questioned the value of constant forecasts, and appears to favor a much less predictable Federal Reserve. Markets have become addicted to every word spoken by central bankers. Investors now spend more time trying to decipher press conferences than studying the underlying economy. Warsh seems to believe that central banks should stop pretending they can micromanage expectations years into the future.

When he was sworn in, Warsh pledged to “lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve” while “learning from past successes and mistakes” and “escaping static frameworks and models.” The Federal Reserve has increasingly become an institution trapped by its own theories. The economy changes while the response remains the same.

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, says he  prefers a meeting that's more like a 'family fight.' ?

The irony is that Trump may have selected someone who agrees with him about the failures of Powell and the Federal Reserve, yet disagrees with him on the solution. Warsh believes the Fed lost credibility because it waited too long to fight inflation. Trump wants growth and lower borrowing costs. Those objectives can coexist for a while, but if inflation remains elevated because of war, energy prices, or government spending, Warsh may find himself making decisions Trump does not like.

The larger issue is that no Fed chairman controls the business cycle. This is where politicians always get it wrong. Trump wanted lower rates. Biden wanted lower rates. Every administration eventually wants lower rates. Yet interest rates ultimately move with confidence and capital flows. The mainstream Keynesian view has always assumed rates are simply a policy tool. History shows something very different. Rates generally rise with strong markets and confidence and decline during bear markets and economic contractions. The Federal Reserve follows the trend far more often than it creates it.

Warsh enters office during what our models have projected as a Panic Cycle year. The international war cycle is turning up, government debt continues expanding, and geopolitical uncertainty is increasing. Investors expecting a magic solution from a new Fed chairman will likely be disappointed. Warsh may reform how the Fed communicates. He may challenge some of the assumptions that dominated the Powell era. But the real issue remains confidence. If confidence in government continues declining while geopolitical tensions continue rising into 2027, then no central banker will be able to prevent the consequences. The Fed does not control the cycle. The cycle controls the Fed.

Will Lebanon Become the Next Gaza?

VP Negotiating Genocide 20250319 1

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said what many leaders will not say publicly. Speaking to Al-Arabiya English, he accused Israel of carrying out a “Holocaust” in Gaza and said: “They already have a bad reputation in the world because of the bombing of Gaza.” He added that Gaza had been “wiped off the face of the earth” and warned that “there is no military solution.” Coming from Lukashenko, the West will dismiss it immediately because they hate the messenger. But that does not erase the condition of Gaza.

The reported Palestinian death toll surpassed 73,000, with more than 173,000 wounded. Save the Children reported in 2025 that more than 20,000 children had been killed. UNICEF said more than 50,000 children had been reportedly killed or injured. Hospitals, schools, homes, roads, water systems, and basic infrastructure were destroyed. This was not a precision operation. Gaza has been completely removed from the map. The Israeli people do NOT support their government and are largely appalled at what Netanyahu has done.

Nearly the entire population of Gaza, roughly 2.1 million people, has been displaced at least once, making it one of the largest displacement crises in modern history. Entire cities were reduced to rubble. Some estimates indicate that well over half of all structures in Gaza were damaged or destroyed.

Netanyahu claimed the goal was to destroy Hamas. That did not happen. Hamas still exists. Analysts have continued to warn that Hamas retained operational capability and would resist disarmament. So what was accomplished? Gaza was destroyed, children were buried, civilians were displaced, and yet the organization Israel claimed it would eliminate remains part of the discussion. That is not victory. You cannot bomb an ideology out of existence.

There has long been speculation surrounding the Ben Gurion Canal project, a proposed alternative to the Suez Canal connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Released documents prove that this plan has been in the works for decades. When Gaza is reduced to ruins and then people begin discussing strategic corridors, reconstruction plans, resorts, ports, and new trade routes, the public naturally asks who benefits. Lukashenko himself criticized what he described as plans to build a resort on land where people were killed. But the main objective is providing the West with a new artery to trade in the Middle East.

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Here are the names of the journalists Israel killed in Gaza | Israel- Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

Revealing the horrors of Gaza is punishable by death. Gaza became the deadliest conflict for reporters ever recorded. The Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Federation of Journalists, Reporters Without Borders, and numerous press freedom organizations have all documented unprecedented losses among media workers. Depending on the methodology used, estimates range from roughly 190 to more than 260 journalists and media workers killed since the war began, the overwhelming majority of them Palestinian. The Costs of War Project described Gaza as the deadliest conflict for journalists in modern history. Many were killed while reporting from hospitals, refugee camps, media tents, and civilian areas. Others died alongside their families in airstrikes.

There are plenty of on-the-ground journalists in every corner of conflict. The percentage of journalists who died reporting on Gaza does not coincide with other conflicts. Rumors have swirled that many of these journalists were deliberately targeted, and let’s be honest, such a concept should not be considered a conspiracy or a far-fetched proposition for a government intent on a scorched-earth policy.

Gaza is no longer the daily story because the cycle has shifted to Iran, Lebanon, and the next war. The public is emotionally exhausted, the cameras move, and the destroyed land remains behind. But history does not forget. The war cycle is not finished. It is expanding. Gaza was not the end of the story. It was a warning of what comes next when leaders believe war is policy and civilians are merely collateral damage. Is Lebanon next?

What concerns me going forward is Lebanon. The negotiations with Iran were reportedly supposed to include broader regional de-escalation, yet Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that Israel intends to maintain freedom of military action in Lebanon and reserves the right to continue operations regardless of any agreement reached elsewhere. If a peace deal leaves Iran standing but the fighting simply shifts north into Lebanon, then peace has not been achieved at all.

Few people seem to remember that the United States spent more than $1 billion constructing what is expected to become the second-largest U.S. embassy complex in the world in Lebanon, a 43-acre fortress that dwarfs most government facilities in the country. The timing and scale of that project have raised questions for years about Washington’s long-term strategic expectations for the region. The cycle continues to suggest that the Middle East is moving through a broader period of instability rather than approaching a lasting settlement. Gaza has been devastated, Iran remains unresolved, and Lebanon increasingly appears positioned as the next potential flashpoint. The danger is that politicians will declare peace while the war simply moves to the next battlefield.

Nationalism Forbidden by EU

Ursula Overthrow Orban 2

 

Hungary’s Viktor Orban represented the most visible challenge to the European Union’s vision of centralized political authority. He rejected migrant quotas, opposed sanctions that damaged European economies, resisted deeper integration, and repeatedly argued that Hungary’s government should answer to Hungarian voters rather than unelected officials in Brussels. That made him a threat. Not because he was unique, but because he demonstrated that a nationalist government could survive repeated attempts to isolate it.

A constitutional amendment has been written specifically to prevent Orban from ever returning to office. Anyone who has served as prime minister for a total of eight years or more “cannot be elected prime minister.” The amendment applies retroactively all the way back to May 2, 1990, counting every year already served as prime minister. Orban has already served roughly twenty years across his various terms in office, making him permanently ineligible the moment the amendment takes effect. If the Hungarian people were to decide four years from now that they wanted Orban back, they would no longer have that choice.

The political establishment is essentially saying that voters are free to choose their leaders, provided they do not choose that leader. For a European Union that constantly lectures others about democracy and the rule of law, rewriting a constitution to retroactively eliminate the most significant nationalist figure in modern Hungarian politics raises profound questions about whether elections are intended to reflect the will of the people or merely ratify outcomes approved by the political class.

The pattern extends far beyond Hungary. Romania’s election was overturned after a nationalist candidate emerged victorious. Marine Le Pen has faced relentless legal battles as her support climbed in France. Germany’s establishment increasingly treats AfD as a political problem to be contained rather than an opposition movement to be debated. In Greece, the debt crisis revealed how quickly democratic outcomes could be discarded when voters challenged the policies demanded by Brussels. Different countries. Different politicians. The same conflict.

The European Union has increasingly come to view nationalism itself as the enemy. Nationalism places loyalty to country above loyalty to institutions. It assumes governments should act in the interests of their own citizens first. Brussels operates from the opposite premise. Power must flow upward toward centralized institutions. National sovereignty becomes an obstacle to integration rather than the foundation of democracy. This is why every major nationalist movement eventually finds itself in conflict with the European establishment.

The sovereign debt crisis, migration crisis, energy crisis, and now the war cycle have all exposed the fault lines beneath the European project. The EU mistakenly thinks it can survive with enough cohesion through coercion, or that confidence can somehow be restored if the vote is suppressed. Removing Orban or any pro-nationalist candidate will not prevent the inevitable collapse of the European Union.

Trump said Netanyahu has “no f—ing judgement.”

Trump breaks with _Netanyahu

QUESTION: I read Trump’s comment to Netanyahu in Axios. You have been the voice of reason. I argued with someone who said you were anti-sematic for criticizing Netanyahu.  They criticized Obama so I asked then you must be a racist. It went right over their head. I know you said before that you had two Jewish uncles who married into your family one on each side. Such people are idiots. My question is do you think this will last?

OB

Sovereign Debt Crisis Middle East 2026

ANSWER: Well, since the latest Israeli poll shows 61% of Israelis want Netanyahu to retire, does that mean 61% of Israelis are anti-sematic? This is a Neocon tactic and anyone who spouts out this BS, one must question their mental capacity to be a free thinker. The EU does the same thing that anyone who does not bad-mouth Putin they call a Putin Supporter. The Neocons always try to prevent any communication with the opposition out of fear there could be a peace deal.

Trump has the midterms and Netanyahu is likely to run for reelection. Netanyahu is being criticized for achieving nothing. He needs a military victory. Trump needs to get the hell out of Iran for the midterms. There is a serious conflict of interest here politically. Trump has at last discovered the real Netanyahu.

Neither Netanyahu nor Zelensky care about the world. Both are psychopaths’ who are only interested in their personal self-interests. The institutional report we produced on the Sovereign Debt Crisis has blown the doors off of what is really going on behind the scenes. I believe that Iran will be able to charge fees to use the Strait of Hurmuz the same as Turkey charges fees for boats and ships using its key waterways, specifically the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. Egypt charges for passage through their Suez Canal as does Panama. Iran, I believe, has agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon. I believe that Iran will have access to $300 billion in reparations for rebuilding infrastructure. Sanctions ill be eventually lifted.

My problem with both Netanyahu and Zelensky is that neither is interested in peace. The alternative  is endless war and the only way to win is genocide – the total destruction of your opponent. Ukraine cannot utterly destroy Russia any more than Israel can obliterate Iran. Neither will accept that because they believe that they can lure in other powers to achieve their goal. Zelensky want NATO to wage war against Russia and has even advocated a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Moscow. Netanyahu needs the US to wage war against Iran and the danger remains that he has nukes and can use them under the pretense that it would be a pre-emptive strike.

2026_03_12_22_52_24_Netanyahu_equates_Iranian_regime_to_ancient_biblical_foe_Middle_East_Monitor

In 2024, in his Knesset speech, Netanyahu said: “I’ve been warning about Iran for 30 years.”  It was reported on March 3rd, during a visit to a site struck by an Iranian missile, Netanyahu stated: “We read in this week’s Torah portion, ‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember—and we act.”

In 1 Samuel 15:2-3, God gives King Saul a specific, direct order to carry out this command. The prophet Samuel relays the message:

“This is what the LORD Almighty says: ‘I will punish the Amalekites for what they did to Israel when they waylaid them as they came up from Egypt. Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys. ‘”

The harshness of the command in 1 Samuel has disturbed Jewish scholars for centuries, leading to various interpretations that move beyond a literal call for genocide. If Netanyahu believes that genocide is the command of God, that is NOT in the self-interest of the United States. He knows you cannot accomplish regime change from the air. This is the very first time when we are in a partnership with another country who is really calling the shots here where the interests of Netanyahu are by no means the same national interest of the United States.

I have tried my best to reveal the real agenda of both Netanyahu and Zelensky. Both are hellbent on trying to create world war to destroy their hated opponents and will say anything to achieve that goal.

To answer you question, I believe that Netanyahu will not yield and I would still expect tensions to rise again especially in August and this may escalate into the first quarter of 2027. I have been trying to keep the US out of this mess. I will probably fail, but nonetheless, I have to give it a shot.

Market Talk – June 16, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 87.00 points or 0.13% to 69,404.50
• Shanghai decreased 4.58 points or -0.11% to 4,091.892
• Hang Seng decreased 348.72 points or -1.40% to 24,493.95
• ASX 200 increased 3.70 points or 0.04% to 8,917.70
• SENSEX increased 544.15 points or 0.71% to 76,808.48
• Nifty50 increased 135.25 points or 0.57% to 23,989.15
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00034 or -0.05% to 0.70694
• NZDUSD increased 0.00127 or 0.22% to 0.58357
• USDJPY increased 0.105 or 0.07% to 160.435
• USDCNY decreased 0.00198 or -0.03% to 6.75719
The above data was collected around 13:41 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 28.79 USD/t oz. or 0.67% to 4,338.47
•  Silver increased 0.179 USD/t. oz. or 0.26% to 70.159
The above data was collected around 13:43 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 63.26 points or 0.75% to 8,447.27
•  FTSE 100 increased 63.59 points or 0.61% to 10,494.21
•  DAX 30 increased 16.40 points or 0.07% to 24,910.41
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00209 or 0.18% to 1.16111
• GBPUSD increased 0.00141 or 0.11% to 1.34279
• USDCHF decreased 0.00166 or -0.21% to 0.79294
The above data was collected around 13:56 EST.

AMERICAS:

US Markets:

  • DJIA advanced by 328.64 points (0.64%) to 51,999.67
  • S&P 500 declined by 42.94 points (-0.57%) to 7,511.35
  • NASDAQ declined by 307.60 points (-1.15%) to 26,376.344
  • Russell 2000 declined by 25.89 points (-0.87%) to 2,939.195

Canada:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 113.94 points (0.32%) to 35,389.58
  • TSX 60 advanced by 5.75 points (0.28%) to 2,069.46

Brazil:

  • Bovespa declined by 804.26 points (-0.47%) to 169,610.87
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 4.834 USD/BBL or -5.99% to 75.916
•  Brent decreased 4.268 USD/BBL or -5.13% to 78.902
•  Natural gas increased 0.0824 USD/MMBtu or 2.62% to 3.2294
•  Gasoline decreased 0.0778 USD/GAL -2.64% to 2.8694
•  Heating oil decreased 0.0917 USD/GAL or -2.81% to 3.1748
The above data was collected around 14:00 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (2.62%), Cocoa (6.48%), Coffee (5.51%) and Platinum (2.85%)
•  Top commodity losers: Methanol (-3.58%), Orange Juice (-5.09%), Brent (-5.13%) and Crude Oil (-5.99%)
The above data was collected around 14:11 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.6480% (+7.06bp), US 2’s 4.05% (-0.027%), US 10’s 4.4290% (-5.2bps); US 30’s 4.93 (-0.050%), Bunds 2.9294% (-2.2bp), France 3.566% (-2.19bp), Italy 3.628% (-5.28bp), Turkey 33.360% (+10.5bp), Greece 3.597% (-2.36bp), Portugal 3.295% (-3.49bp); Spain 3.340% (-4.92bp) and UK Gilts 4.7826% (-3.90bp)
The above data was collected around 14:34 EST.

Netanyahu’s War Is Not Over

Netanyahu Obsession With Iran

There is something that does not add up. If the objective is peace, then why was one of the most contentious parts of the negotiations the demand that hostilities in Lebanon also come to an end? Reports indicate that the U.S.-Iran framework includes de-escalation in Lebanon. Yet almost immediately Israeli officials declared they would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and would continue to reserve the right to act independently. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated plainly Israel would remain in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza regardless of the agreement.

This is where the entire story begins to unravel. Trump has been publicly insisting that Netanyahu will have to accept whatever agreement Washington negotiates, reportedly saying: “I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.” At the very same time, reports emerged that Trump was furious over Israeli actions in Beirut that nearly derailed the negotiations altogether. According to multiple reports, strikes in Lebanon came dangerously close to collapsing the entire framework before it was finalized.

The issue is not Iran. The issue is that Netanyahu appears to have viewed this conflict very differently from Washington. Reports suggest that Netanyahu hoped military pressure would fundamentally weaken Iran’s position throughout the region and perhaps even contribute to regime change. A negotiated settlement that leaves Iran standing, releases frozen assets, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and begins another round of diplomacy was never the outcome many hardliners were seeking. That is why Israeli officials immediately began attacking the agreement while insisting they would maintain military freedom of action in Lebanon.

Netanyahu manipulates Trump 22026_04_06_21_36_32_Netanyahu_warned_Trump_against_ceasefire_in_Sunday_call_report_The_Times_of_

The uncomfortable reality in Washington is that every politician knows exactly how powerful the pro-Israel lobbying network has become. AIPAC has spent decades directing enormous sums into congressional races. Politicians on both sides of the aisle understand the consequences of crossing that machine. Whether one supports Israel or not, pretending this influence does not exist is absurd. Entire careers have been built and destroyed based upon foreign policy positions relating to Israel. The result is that American politicians often place the interests of foreign conflicts ahead of the interests of American taxpayers who will ultimately pay the bill. The growing divide between Trump and Netanyahu demonstrates that even within traditionally pro-Israel circles, there are limits to how much foreign policy can be subordinated to another nation’s strategic objectives.

The Economic Confidence Model and the war cycle never suggested that 2026 would bring peace. Quite the opposite. This is a Panic Cycle year. The international war cycle turns up into 2027, with 2028 bringing economic stress and civil unrest before the major geopolitical turning point into 2029. People keep searching for a treaty that ends the crisis. That is not how these cycles work. The danger comes when political leaders become prisoners of their own narratives. Netanyahu has spent years presenting Iran as the defining threat of our time. Leaders who build their careers on war rarely become the architects of peace. That is why I remain skeptical. The greatest threat to this agreement may not come from Tehran. It may come from those who never wanted a negotiated settlement in the first place.

The Strait of Hormuz May Reopen But the War Cycle Is Not Finished

Strait Hormuz 1

The financial press is celebrating reports that traders are betting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could begin returning to normal by August. Oil prices have fallen sharply on hopes of a U.S.-Iran agreement, and prediction markets are assigning better-than-even odds that vessel traffic will recover during the second half of this year. Yet when you look beneath the headlines, even the traders themselves remain skeptical.

The proposed agreement between Washington and Tehran contains several conditions that sound impressive on paper. Iran has reportedly agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic, some $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets could be released, and a 60-day negotiation period would begin to address sanctions, uranium enrichment, and broader regional security issues. Oil markets immediately celebrated the news because roughly 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The mere prospect of reopening the waterway sent crude prices lower as traders rushed to price in a return to normality. Yet the actual details remain incomplete, portions of the agreement have not been published, and multiple versions of the terms are already circulating.

Kalshi markets still show considerable doubt that traffic will fully normalize anytime soon, and major shipping firms are refusing to return to normal operations until mines are cleared, insurance costs fall, and security can be guaranteed. Reuters reports that many shipping companies believe a complete recovery may take many months, and some estimates extend into 2027 before flows return to pre-war conditions.

r/Conservative - “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!”

The first problem is that reopening the Strait is not as simple as issuing a press release. Reports indicate that mines must still be cleared, security guarantees must be established, and shipping companies remain cautious after months of disruption. Tanker operators, insurers, and cargo firms have all learned that one missile, one drone strike, or one political disagreement can instantly shut down the route again. Commerce may resume, but confidence takes far longer to rebuild than headlines would suggest.

The second issue is that the core dispute has not actually been resolved. The agreement merely opens a negotiation period regarding Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and uranium enrichment. These are the very issues that helped create the crisis in the first place. Israel is already criticizing the arrangement, arguing that it fails to address missiles, regional proxy groups, and broader security concerns. Iranian hardliners are attacking the deal from the opposite direction, claiming Tehran is giving away leverage for uncertain promises. When both sides are unhappy before the ink is dry, that is usually a warning sign rather than a guarantee of peace.

The mistake people continue to make is assuming that reopening a waterway ends a geopolitical crisis. It does not. The Strait of Hormuz is merely a symptom of a much larger conflict that remains unresolved. Roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade passes through this corridor. The war exposed just how fragile the global supply chain has become. Alternative routes have already been developed, exporters have adjusted logistics, and shipping companies have learned the hard way that one political decision can disrupt trillions in commerce. Even if the Strait reopens tomorrow, the distrust remains. Insurance premiums do not instantly collapse. Tanker operators do not suddenly forget that vessels were attacked. Capital does not immediately return to a region once it has been burned.

From the perspective of the Economic Confidence Model and the broader war cycle, this was never about one shipping lane. The arrays have been warning that 2026 is a Panic Cycle year. We have entered a period where geopolitical tensions are expanding, not contracting. The public always wants to believe that one treaty, one summit, or one ceasefire will restore stability. History shows otherwise. The First World War was supposed to be over by Christmas. The Middle East has seen countless ceasefires that merely served as intermissions before the next round of conflict. The forces driving this confrontation remain in place, including regional rivalries, religious tensions, sanctions, energy competition, and the growing split between East and West. Those factors do not disappear because diplomats shake hands.

I do believe shipping traffic will eventually return. Commerce always finds a way because governments can wage war but businesses still need to move goods. Yet do not mistake this as the finale of the conflict. The war cycle points toward increasing geopolitical volatility into 2027. Markets are celebrating the reopening of Hormuz because they are focused on next week’s oil prices. The cycle is looking much further ahead. As long as the underlying disputes remain unresolved, this agreement risks becoming another ceasefire that lasts only until the next catalyst appears.

 

South Africa: The Lights Came Back On — The Economy Did Not

Disastrous power cuts threaten South African economy and rulers -  CSMonitor.com

For years, South Africa’s rolling blackouts became a symbol of national decline. Businesses bought generators. Families planned their lives around power schedules. Factories lost production. Politicians blamed everyone but themselves. Now, after years of crisis, South Africa has achieved something many thought impossible. The country recently passed 300 consecutive days without load-shedding, and Eskom’s energy availability factor has climbed to nearly 66%. Diesel spending has fallen dramatically, and for the first time in years the power grid is no longer the country’s biggest economic problem.

The IMF projects South African GDP growth of just 1.0% in 2026. Even more troubling, real GDP per person has fallen from roughly $5,954 in 2010 to about $5,715 in 2024. After fourteen years, South Africans are approximately 4% poorer on a per-capita basis despite commodity booms, government plans, infrastructure spending, and now an improving electricity system.

This is where governments consistently misunderstand economics. They identify a visible problem and assume solving it will automatically create prosperity. It rarely works that way. South Africa’s blackouts were certainly damaging, but they were never the sole cause of economic stagnation. Weak investment, deteriorating infrastructure, high unemployment, declining productivity, capital flight, and government inefficiency were already undermining growth long before the power crisis reached its peak. The blackouts simply made the deeper problems impossible to ignore.

The labor market tells the real story. Official unemployment has climbed to 32.7%, while youth unemployment has reached an astonishing 45.8%. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, employment reportedly fell by 345,000 jobs. An economy growing at 1% simply cannot absorb a rapidly expanding labor force. Young people entering the workforce find themselves competing for opportunities that often do not exist.

The investment numbers are equally concerning. Gross fixed capital formation stands at just 14.5% of GDP, well below the levels typically seen in emerging economies that experience sustained growth. No country becomes prosperous without investment. Factories, railways, ports, power plants, technology infrastructure, and housing all require capital. When investment remains weak, growth inevitably follows.

Even South Africa’s freight network reveals the problem. Rail volumes have recovered from recent lows, but remain nearly 30% below the levels recorded less than a decade ago. The country may have restored electricity, but moving goods efficiently across the economy remains a challenge. Growth is not merely about producing power. It is about transmitting economic activity throughout an entire system.

What makes South Africa particularly important is that it serves as a warning for many countries facing similar pressures. Around the world, governments are confronting aging infrastructure, rising debt, slowing productivity, demographic challenges, and declining living standards. Politicians continue searching for single solutions to what are fundamentally systemic problems. There is no magic switch that restores prosperity once confidence has been damaged.

The lesson is simple. Electricity matters. Infrastructure matters. But confidence matters more. Capital flows where it feels secure. Investment follows confidence. Jobs follow investment. Living standards follow productivity. South Africa solved the crisis everyone could see. The challenge now is solving the problems that remain hidden beneath the surface.

The lights came back on. The harder task is reigniting economic confidence.

Market Talk – June 15, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 3,297.46 points or 4.99% to 69,317.50
• Shanghai increased 64.959 points or 1.61% to 4,096.472
• Hang Seng increased 124.57 points or 0.50% to 24,842.67
• ASX 200 increased 110.00 points or 1.25% to 8,914.00
• SENSEX increased 736.38 points or 0.97% to 76,264.33
• Nifty50 increased 231.00 points or 0.98% to 23,853.90
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.0029 or 0.41% to 0.70765
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00051 or -0.09% to 0.58289
• USDJPY increased 0.036 or 0.02% to 160.265
• USDCNY decreased 0.0041 or -0.06% to 6.75931
The above data was collected around 14:15 EST.
Precious Metals:
•  Gold increased 102.22 USD/t oz. or 2.42% to 4,324.22
•  Silver increased 2.343 USD/t. oz. or 3.46% to 70.104
The above data was collected around 14:17 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day today:
•  CAC 40 increased 33.14 points or 0.40% to 8,384.01
•  FTSE 100 decreased 41.10 points or -0.39% to 10,430.62
•  DAX 30 increased 258.71 points or 1.05% to 24,894.01
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00318 or 0.27% to 1.16002
• GBPUSD increased 0.00214 or 0.16% to 1.34256
• USDCHF decreased 0.00334 or -0.42% to 0.79370
The above data was collected around 14:22 EST.

AMERICAS:

US Markets:

  • DJIA advanced by 468.77 points (0.92%) to 51,671.03
  • S&P 500 advanced by 122.83 points (1.65%) to 7,554.29
  • NASDAQ advanced by 795.10 points (3.07%) to 26,683.941
  • Russell 2000 advanced by 21.10 points (0.72%) to 2,965.087

Canada:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 337.79 points (0.97%) to 35,275.64
  • TSX 60 advanced by 13.26 points (0.65%) to 2,063.71

Brazil:

  • Bovespa declined by 717.53 points (-0.42%) to 170,415.13
ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
•  Crude Oil decreased 4.291 USD/BBL or -5.06% to 80.589
•  Brent decreased 4.224 USD/BBL or -4.84% to 83.106
•  Natural gas increased 0.0271 USD/MMBtu or 0.87% to 3.1471
•  Gasoline decreased 0.1064 USD/GAL -3.49% to 2.9434
•  Heating oil decreased 0.1355 USD/GAL or -3.98% to 3.2689
The above data was collected around 14:27 EST.
•  Top commodity gainers: Silver (3.46%), Cocoa (3.27%), Platinum (3.74%) and Palladium (4.92%)
•  Top commodity losers: Bitumen (-5.55%), Orange Juice (-5.98%), Methanol (-7.95%) and Crude Oil (-5.06%)
The above data was collected around 14:33 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.5770% (-5.98bp), US 2’s 4.07% (-0.023%), US 10’s 4.4730% (-1.6bps); US 30’s 4.97 (+0.001%), Bunds 2.9697% (-2.96bp), France 3.588% (-5.86bp), Italy 3.681% (-5.25bp), Turkey 33.195% (+181.5bp), Greece 3.624% (-6.4bp), Portugal 3.339% (-4.8bp); Spain 3.389% (-3.5bp) and UK Gilts 4.8254% (-0.86bp)
The above data was collected around 14:34 EST.

Britain Prioritizes War on Speech as the Economy Crumbles

I have said many times that governments in decline always become more concerned with controlling what people say than solving the problems people are complaining about. Britain appears to be following that historical pattern. Reports showing roughly 12,000 arrests annually linked to online communications have ignited a growing backlash against Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the political establishment.

Thirty people are arrested every single day over words. Yet, someone can commit murder on camera and that is overlooked if they are a non-citizen. Non-citizens can violently assault cops on camera. Rape cases have multiplied under the new two-tiered justice system under Starmer. These are FACTS. Sorry if FACTS hurt your feelings.

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Henry Nowak, Christianity, and the Fate of the West - CultureWatch

The Henry Nowak case became a symbol of rage after video footage showed the dying teenager pleading for help while officers focused on allegations made by his attacker, who had accused him of racism. The police arrested Nowak who bled out and died in handcuffs. Cruel injustice shattered the government’s narrative on hate speech. The people have been forced to see the truth, and a growing portion of the population now sees WHY the government demands silence.

Starmer’s approval ratings continue to deteriorate as voters watch economic stagnation, record migration levels, rising crime concerns, and growing restrictions on speech converge at the same time. Civil unrest is growing in Britain as the Nowak case has propelled the cycle of declining confidence.

The timing could not be worse for the government. Britain is struggling with more than £3 trillion in national debt. Economic growth remains weak. Productivity has stagnated for more than a decade. Living standards have failed to keep pace with inflation. The National Health Service is under constant pressure. Crime remains a growing concern in many communities. Against this backdrop, many Britons are asking why the political class appears more focused on monitoring speech than addressing the economic decline unfolding around them.

(Above: Police threaten to arrest a partially deaf elderly man for hate speech after he asks an immigrant to speak up)

The government has lost control of its carefully constructed narrative. If citizens can be arrested for comments, memes, or controversial opinions posted online, then free speech does not exist. It is forbidden. Take it a step further and question WHY they must silence the public. The video footage of cops arresting a man bleeding out, pleading for help, explained it all.

The issue extends far beyond Britain. Across Europe we are witnessing a steady expansion of laws regulating speech, online content, and digital communications. Governments justify these measures as necessary to combat misinformation, extremism, or hate speech. Critics argue that such powers inevitably expand beyond their original purpose.

What concerns me most is that public trust is evaporating. Governments survive on confidence. Once confidence disappears, every institution comes under scrutiny. Britain is entering a period of economic stress, political polarization, and rising civil unrest. Attempts to suppress debate have ignited the growing fire of resentment. The stronger the pressure applied to public opinion, the greater the reaction eventually becomes.