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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

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Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

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The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Economic Warfare – US v Spain

Trade War

Trade has increasingly become the weapon of choice for politicians who cannot resolve disputes through diplomacy. Now we see tensions erupting between the United States and Spain after Madrid refused to allow American forces to use joint bases for operations related to Iran. Washington responded by threatening to cut off trade entirely with Spain. This type of reaction illustrates the dangerous trend that I have warned about for years where politicians increasingly treat trade as a geopolitical weapon.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly condemned Israel and the US for “playing Russian roulette with millions of lives” and called the strikes “unjustifiable.” “Spain has absolutely nothing that we need,” President Trump responded, noting he told the Treasury Secretary to “cut off all dealings with Spain.”

Trade was originally intended to bind nations together economically so that war became less attractive. Adam Smith understood this centuries ago. When nations rely upon each other economically, they have a strong incentive to maintain peace. The moment governments begin using trade as a punishment tool, the entire framework collapses. We saw this repeatedly in the 20th century when sanctions and trade barriers escalated conflicts rather than resolving them. History shows that once trade becomes weaponized, it rarely stops with a single country.

Spain’s refusal to allow its bases to be used reflects Europe’s growing discomfort with the escalation of conflicts abroad. Yet responding with threats to sever trade does nothing to solve the dispute. Instead, it drags the entire European Union into the matter since Spain cannot be isolated from the EU’s trade system.

Trade is tied directly to capital flows. When capital moves into the United States seeking safety or investment opportunities, the trade deficit expands automatically as a balancing mechanism. Attempting to manipulate trade through threats or sanctions does not change the underlying economic forces driving capital movement around the world.

Weaponizing trade also accelerates fragmentation in the global economy. Nations begin forming blocs, bypassing one another with alternative financial systems, payment networks, and supply chains. We have already seen this process unfolding as countries search for ways to avoid sanctions and political interference in commerce. The more trade is politicized, the faster this fragmentation accelerates.

What we are witnessing is not simply a dispute between Washington and Madrid. It is part of a broader shift where governments are increasingly willing to use economic systems as tools of coercion. The problem is that once this door is opened, every nation eventually adopts the same strategy.

Europe Is Building a Digital Identity System for 450 Million People

The European Union is quietly constructing what may become one of the most sweeping digital identity systems ever attempted. Under new legislation, every EU member state must provide citizens with a government-approved “European Digital Identity Wallet” by 2026. This system will allow people to store official documents, verify identity, access government services, sign legal contracts, and potentially interact with financial institutions through a single digital platform. It is being marketed as a modernization effort designed to make life easier for citizens navigating an increasingly digital economy.

Supporters claim the digital wallet will simply replace physical paperwork. Instead of carrying passports, driver’s licenses, or other credentials, individuals will be able to verify their identity online with a government-issued digital key. The European Commission argues that this will streamline bureaucracy and allow citizens to interact with both public and private services more efficiently across all 27 member states.

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Yet the implications extend far beyond administrative convenience. Once identity becomes centralized within a digital framework controlled or approved by government authorities, participation in everyday life increasingly depends on that system. Access to banking, employment verification, healthcare services, travel documentation, and legal contracts can all be integrated into the same identity infrastructure. What begins as a convenience quickly becomes a gateway through which access to modern society is managed.

Governments have always maintained population registries in one form or another. What makes digital identity systems fundamentally different is the speed and scale at which they operate. When identification becomes digitized and interconnected across borders, the ability to monitor economic and social activity expands dramatically. Identity verification can occur instantly, records can be updated in real time, and information can be shared between institutions with unprecedented efficiency.

This development becomes even more significant when viewed alongside other technological initiatives currently underway in Europe. The European Central Bank continues to explore the creation of a digital euro, a central bank digital currency that would exist entirely within electronic financial systems. If digital identity platforms and digital currency systems eventually intersect, financial activity and identity verification could become closely linked within the same infrastructure.

Proponents emphasize security and convenience, but critics argue that centralized identity systems create vulnerabilities of their own. Large databases containing personal information become attractive targets for cyberattacks. More importantly, the consolidation of identity into a single digital framework gives authorities significant influence over how individuals interact with economic systems. Access to services, verification processes, and regulatory compliance can all be mediated through the digital identity network.

Europe’s digital identity wallet represents a major step toward integrating identification, financial systems, and digital services across an entire continent. Whether it ultimately functions as a tool of convenience or evolves into something far more intrusive will depend on how these systems are governed and how widely they are integrated into everyday life. What is clear is that the infrastructure for a new form of digital administration is being built now, and its long-term implications will extend well beyond simplifying paperwork.

Biometric Databases: Governments Building the Infrastructure of Surveillance

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Governments around the world are rapidly expanding biometric identification systems, quietly building databases that contain some of the most personal information a human being possesses. Fingerprints, facial scans, iris patterns, and even voice recognition are increasingly being collected and stored in centralized systems. What was once limited to criminal investigations is now becoming a standard feature of everyday identification.

Biometric systems are attractive to governments because they tie identity directly to the human body. Unlike passwords or identification cards, fingerprints and facial features cannot be forgotten, lost, or easily changed. Authorities argue that this makes biometric verification more secure and more efficient for everything from border control to banking access. Airports already rely heavily on facial recognition technology, while banks and financial apps increasingly require biometric verification for account access.

Border control is one of the fastest-growing areas of biometric expansion. The European Union has begun implementing its Entry/Exit System, which replaces traditional passport stamps with biometric records. Travelers entering or leaving the Schengen Area will have their fingerprints and facial images recorded and stored in a centralized database. These systems are designed to track travel movements more accurately and identify individuals who overstay visas.

Mexico recently approved plans for a national biometric identity card that will include fingerprints and iris scans stored in a central database. Authorities say the program will help combat crime and identity fraud. Critics argue that such systems concentrate enormous amounts of personal information in government-controlled databases that could be misused or accessed without proper safeguards.

The expansion of biometric systems is occurring alongside the development of digital identity frameworks and increasingly digitized financial infrastructure. When biometric verification becomes the standard method of confirming identity, access to banking services, government programs, employment verification, and travel documentation can all be tied to the same authentication systems. Identity verification shifts from something you carry in your wallet to something embedded in your physical characteristics.

Large biometric databases introduce their own risks. They become highly valuable targets for cyberattacks, as breaches could expose sensitive personal information that cannot be replaced like a password or credit card number. Unlike traditional identification methods, biometric traits cannot simply be reset once compromised. A stolen fingerprint or facial recognition template could theoretically be misused indefinitely.

As biometric identification systems expand, governments gain the ability to track individuals across multiple aspects of life. Border crossings, financial transactions, employment records, and access to services can all be tied to a single biometric identity profile. When these systems are interconnected, they create an infrastructure capable of monitoring activity on a scale that would have been unimaginable only a few decades ago.

Technology itself is not inherently oppressive, but its implementation often determines its consequences. Biometric identification may improve efficiency in certain situations, yet the rapid expansion of centralized biometric databases raises fundamental questions about privacy, autonomy, and the balance of power between individuals and the institutions that manage these systems.

Market Talk – March 4, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 2,033.51 points or -3.61% to 54,245.54
• Shanghai decreased 40.202 points or -0.98% to 4,082.474
• Hang Seng decreased 518.60 points or -2.01% to 25,249.48
• ASX 200 decreased 176.10 points or -1.94% to 8,901.20
• SENSEX decreased 1,122.66 points or -1.40% to 79,116.19
• Nifty50 decreased 385.20 points or -1.55% to 24,480.50
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD increased 0.00361 or 0.51% to 0.70720
• NZDUSD increased 0.00415 or 0.70% to 0.59319
• USDJPY decreased 0.778 or -0.49% to 156.947
• USDCNY decreased 0.02832 or -0.41% to 6.89025
The above data was collected around 11:50 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold increased 57.9 USD/t oz. or 1.14% to 5,146.75
• Silver increased 1.692 USD/t. oz. or 2.06% to 83.672
The above data was collected around 11:52 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
• CAC 40 increased 63.89 points or 0.79% to 8,167.73
• FTSE 100 increased 83.52 points or 0.80% to 10,567.65
• DAX 30 increased 414.71 points or 1.74% to 24,205.36
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00239 or 0.21% to 1.16386
• GBPUSD increased 0.00147 or 0.11% to 1.33693
• USDCHF decreased 0.00221 or -0.28% to 0.77980
The above data was collected around 11:54 EST.
AMERICAS:

US/AMERICAS:

  • Dow advanced by 238.14 points (+0.49%) to 48,739.41

  • S&P 500 advanced by 52.87 points (+0.78%) to 6,869.50

  • NASDAQ advanced by 290.79 points (+1.29%) to 22,807.484

  • Russell 2000 advanced by 27.66 points (+1.06%) to 2,636.012

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 157.92 points (+0.47%) to 33,942.86

  • TSX 60 advanced by 9.10 points (+0.47%) to 1,960.05

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced by 2,261.57 points (+1.24%) to 185,366.44

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a mixed day today:
• Crude Oil decreased 0.451 USD/BBL or -0.61% to 74.109
• Brent decreased 0.333 USD/BBL or -0.41% to 81.067
• Natural gas decreased 0.1384 USD/MMBtu or -4.53% to 2.9156
• Gasoline increased 0.0129 USD/GAL or 0.52% to 2.4861
• Heating oil increased 0.0447 USD/GAL or 1.40% to 3.2316
The above data was collected around 11:58 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Milk (10.60%), Platinum (4.08%), Silicon (3.86%) and Orange Juice (4.22%)
• Top commodity losers: Lithium (-4.35%), Bitumen (-2.30%), Natural Gas (-4.53%) and Oat (-5.91%)
The above data was collected around 12:06 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.1180% (-1.49bp), US 2’s 3.53% (+0.019%), US 10’s 4.0730% (+0.1bps); US 30’s 4.72 (+0.009%), Bunds 2.7570% (-1.82bp), France 3.3480% (-3.54bp), Italy 3.4290% (-4.73bp), Turkey 31.180% (+236bp), Greece 3.424% (-6.5bp), Portugal 3.147% (-3.5bp); Spain 3.198% (+1.2bp) and UK Gilts 4.3760% (-3.15bp)
The above data was collected around 12:10 EST.

Great Nations Do Not Fight Endless Wars

Neocon Endless Wars

“Great nations do not fight endless wars,” Donald Trump said during his campaign when highlighting his “Americas First” message. Trump explicitly promised to maintain peace and keep American troops out of foreign wars. American blood has been shed in the Middle East once more amid Operation Epic Fury. Could this escalating war cause MAGA to fracture?

“We are not going to war with Iran. We are going to make sure they never have a nuclear weapon,” Trump once said. I’ve mentioned that I was particularly impressed with Donald Trump after visiting Mar-a-Lago. He was the first politician to voice genuine concern over American lives lost fighting endless wars. “After 19 years, it is time for them to police their own country. Bring our soldiers back home but closely watch what is going on and strike with a thunder like never before, if necessary!” he posted in 2020. Trump later vowed to bring our troops home by Christmas of that year.

The man who once remorsefully spoke of dreading watching mothers mourning their sons and daughters has been compromised, infiltrated by the neocons. He admitted that the US should have never been in Iraq or Afghanistan. He did not troops in Syria. Trump clearly acknowledged that the Middle East has endless generations of feuding and rivalry that cannot be stopped. “Peace in the Middle East” cannot be attained through warfare, and truthfully, it simply cannot be attained because of the deep rooted ideology that has been passed on throughout thousands of years.

The neocons fantasized of a 6-week war in Iraq back in 2003, but US troops remained on the ground until December 2011. The strike on Iran is expected to last “four to give weeks,” according to Washington officials who say they are on a “clear, decisive mission.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said it will take “some time” but “not years…not an endless war.”

Americans voted for peace and nationalism after four years of globalist policies. Trump has shot himself in the foot. Exactly on target with the ECM, 2026 is emerging as a major geopolitical turning point. The model has been warning that this year would mark a shift into a broader phase of instability. What we are witnessing is not is cyclical.

The computer is indicating that pressures will intensify into 2027, where we face a Panic Cycle that historically coincides with sudden escalation or an external shock event. Panic Cycles do not require full-scale world war but they dramatically increase the probability of geopolitical confrontation and capital flight. The risk is that regional conflicts merge, drawing in larger powers either directly or through proxies.

That escalation phase then carries forward into 2028, which stands as a Yearly Panic Cycle, which is a far more significant inflection point. When Panic Cycles align at both the shorter and longer time frames, the probability of systemic disruption rises sharply. This is where sovereign debt stress, currency instability, military confrontation, and political realignment can converge.

The key takeaway: 2026 is the pivot. 2027 introduces volatility and escalation risk. 2028 represents the potential systemic break.

Iran’s Geography – Mountain Fortress And Deserts

Topographic map of Iran with the main topographical features ...

When analysts talk about Iran, they too often reduce it to politics, nukes, or ideology. But any real understanding of the strategic challenge must begin with geography. Iran is not Iraq; it is not Afghanistan. It is a vast land mass defined by mountain ranges that have shaped its history, defense, and resistance to outside powers for millennia.

Iran covers roughly 1.65 million square kilometers, making it more than three times the size of Iraq and significantly larger than Afghanistan. Its internal geography isn’t open plains, but a series of rugged, interconnected mountain systems with high interior basins and plateaus wedged between them. The two dominant ranges, the Zagros in the west and the Alborz in the north, surround the country’s heartland, rise above 3,000 meters, and in places top 4,000 meters, creating what military theorists have called a mountain fortress

Afghanistan is frequently cited as the quintessential “graveyard of empires,” and its Hindu Kush mountains create an extraordinarily hostile combat environment. But even Afghanistan’s mountains are more accessible valleys and corridors. Iran’s mountains differ in scale and in their relationship to population centers. Iran’s population is concentrated in mountainous basins, not distant from the terrain that conceals them. Cities like Tehran, nestled under the Alborz, and countless towns embedded in the Zagros foothills, are naturally insulated. This gives defenders the ability to move, regroup, and conceal logistics under terrain that challenges air and ground surveillance.

Contrast that with Iraq, where the terrain quickly transitions to flat plains like the Tigris-Euphrates basin, which historically have facilitated rapid warfare. Iraq’s internal highlands exist, but they are limited and do not envelop critical centers. That is why during the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion, coalition forces could maneuver long distances rapidly. In Iran, such maneuver corridors are constrained by elevation, narrow passes, and terrain that favors defensive preparations and ambush.

Terrain matters because it dictates strategy. In Afghanistan, invaders struggled precisely because the rugged landscape broke lines of communication and allowed insurgents to melt into valleys and mountainsides. Iran’s mountains are broader and more extensive, giving defenders even more strategic options: natural choke points, deep interior lines of retreat, and countless niches for irregular or asymmetric resistance. Iran’s military planners understand this well, which is why defensive tunnel networks and surface-to-air missile sites have been deployed to exploit the topography.

Historically, the mountains of Iran have served as a barrier to sovereignty. They helped defend against Arab, Mongol, Ottoman, and Russian incursions over centuries. They served as the backbone of resistance during the Iran–Iraq War, where Iranian forces leveraged rugged terrain to negate some of Iraq’s technical advantages.

So when policymakers today speculate about quick strikes and a six-week regime decapitation, they are ignoring a fundamental constant: mountains favor the defender.

Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act

Wealth Tax

Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna believe it would be “fair” to confiscate trillions from wealthy Americans to redistribute as they see fit. The Make Billionaires Pay Their Fair Share Act would impose a 5% annual tax on the wealth of America’s roughly 938 billionaires and is projected to raise about $4.4 trillion over ten years.

Sanders declared, “In a democratic society, we cannot tolerate 60 percent of our people living paycheck to paycheck while 938 billionaires have become $1.5 trillion richer,” arguing that the “corrupt tax code” favors the ultra-wealthy. Khanna added that “we can tax billionaires a modest amount to make sure everyone has a fair chance.” Whenever policy is driven by moral outrage rather than economic structure, you must step back and examine the unintended consequences.

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A wealth tax of this magnitude targets assets, not income. That means taxing unrealized gains including paper value in stocks, private companies, real estate, and other holdings. History has shown that such taxes often trigger capital flight or relocation of high-net-worth individuals. Europe tried wealth taxes repeatedly and abandoned many of them after discovering they raised less revenue than projected while discouraging investment. Capital moves where it is treated best.

When confidence declines, redistribution becomes politically attractive. But redistribution does not create growth. It reallocates it. The real danger is not the $4.4 trillion number. It is the precedent. Once you redefine wealth as a taxable asset base regardless of liquidity, you fundamentally alter property rights. Markets function on stability and predictability and uncertainty is what drives capital away.

This proposal is unlikely to pass in its current form. Bernie will fossilize before his socialist dreams come true. Yet, ideas that were once considered extreme are now up for mainstream debate. The premise sounds good to voters on paper. Sanders and Khanna are offering “a $3,000 direct payment to every man, woman, and child in a household making $150,000 or less—$12,000 for a family of four. But as those in New York City are learning under Mamdani, tax policies eventually target EVERYONE. Socialistic policies do result in equality—in poverty—as government’s appetite for spending is insatiable.

Market Talk – March 3, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 1,778.19 points or -3.06% to 56,279.05
• Shanghai decreased 59.915 points or -1.43% to 4,122.676
• Hang Seng decreased 291.77 points or -1.12% to 25,768.08
• ASX 200 decreased 123.60 points or -1.34% to 9,077.30
• SENSEX closed
• Nifty50 closed
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00714 or -1.01% to 0.70220
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00589 or -0.99% to 0.58821
• USDJPY increased 0.27 or 0.17% to 157.669
• USDCNY increased 0.0207 or 0.30% to 6.92169
The above data was collected around 11:45 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold decreased 212.31 USD/t oz. or -3.99% to 5,110.38
• Silver decreased 6.365 USD/t. oz. or -7.13% to 82.916
The above data was collected around 11:50 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
• CAC 40 decreased 290.48 points or -3.46% to 8,103.84
• FTSE 100 decreased 295.98 points or -2.75% to 10,484.13
• DAX 30 decreased 847.35 points or -3.44% to 23,790.65
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.0101 or -0.86% to 1.15868
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00916 or -0.68% to 1.33165
• USDCHF increased 0.00436 or 0.56% to 0.78367
The above data was collected around 12:18 EST.
NORTH AMERICA:

US/AMERICAS:

  • Dow declined by 403.51 points (-0.83%) to 48,501.27

  • S&P 500 declined by 64.99 points (-0.94%) to 6,816.63

  • NASDAQ declined by 232.17 points (-1.02%) to 22,516.691

  • Russell 2000 declined by 47.59 points (-1.79%) to 2,608.357

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined by 756.33 points (-2.19%) to 33,784.94

  • TSX 60 declined by 35.38 points (-1.78%) to 1,950.95

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined by 6,543.71 points (-3.46%) to 182,763.31

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a green day today:
• Crude Oil increased 4.991 USD/BBL or 7.01% to 76.221
• Brent increased 5.471 USD/BBL or 7.04% to 83.211
• Natural gas increased 0.1806 USD/MMBtu or 6.10% to 3.1406
• Gasoline increased 0.0982 USD/GAL or 4.12% to 2.4793
• Heating oil increased 0.361 USD/GAL or 12.45% to 3.2614
The above data was collected around 12:19 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (12.45%), Brent (7.04%), Methanol (6.56%) and Crude Oil (7.01%)
• Top commodity losers: Lithium (-6.67%), Platinum (-10.96%), Palladium (-7.58%) and Silver (-7.13%)
The above data was collected around 12:40 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.1330% (+6.82bp), US 2’s 3.51% (+0.029%), US 10’s 4.0680% (+2.8bps); US 30’s 4.71 (+0.031%), Bunds 2.7542% (+4.61bp), France 3.3730% (+7.47bp), Italy 3.4940% (+12.87bp), Turkey 30.470% (-13.5bp), Greece 3.476% (+14.2bp), Portugal 3.161% (+8.7bp); Spain 3.204% (+7bp) and UK Gilts 4.4080% (+9.74bp)
The above data was collected around 12:42 EST.

An Iranian Victory is Different from an American Victory

Irans Iron Fist

QUESTION: Do you see any possibility that Iran can win?

Jeb

ANSWER: NO, in the conventional sense. The strategy of Iran is completely different from that of the US. It understands that Trump thinks he will be able to overthrow the regime and this will be short and sweet. They know they cannot win against the United States in that sense. They cannot send balistic missiles to attack NYC or LA. The greatest threat here is that they try to hurt the West by attacking the oil facilities in the Middle East. They know Trump has midterms and scandals to deal with like Epstein. They also know that Americans do not support a prolonged Neocon war. This most likely translates into dragging things out knowing that Trump may have bit off more than he can chew listening to the Neocons.

Iran Map R

Iran is not a flat piece of land like Iraq. It is mountainous. They also know that a ground assault will be challenging and perhaps more costly in lives than Iraq. Iran mentality is not the same insofar as victory. It is more about surviving, which to them would be a victory.

china_rail_link_to_iran

Attacking the oil facilities of the other Middle Eastern states will have a great impact on the West than attacking Israel which they also do not expect to defeat. If they can create enough chaos so that ships stay in ports, that also would be a victory to Iran. What you don’t want to see happen is damaging the railway for oil to China. China is the largest oil importer. That would then threaten their national security.

 

Martin Armstrong – LIVE In Vancouver! Tickets on Sale NOW!

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We are pleased to announce upcoming in-person events in Vancouver for you!

Hosted by Mike Campbell, the 2026 World Outlook Conference will feature a full day of in-person events on March 31, 2026. Martin Armstrong himself will be live on stage that evening. Each session is designed to build on the other, giving attendees both practical tools and a strategic perspective at a critical moment in global markets.

Advanced Trading Training with Erwin Pletsch (8:00 am – 12:00 pm | Westin Bayshore Hotel)

This morning session is built for active investors and traders who want to sharpen execution and timing. Erwin Pletsch will walk through how to interpret reversals, directional changes, volatility spikes, and capital flow shifts using the same cyclical framework that underpins Armstrong’s work. Learn how to identify high-risk turning points, how to recognize false breakouts, and how to manage exposure in vertical markets. This is focused on real-world strategy in an environment where volatility is accelerating, and traditional indicators are failing.

Understanding the Economic Confidence Model with Erwin Pletsch (1:00 pm – 4:00 pm | Westin Bayshore Hotel)

The afternoon session explains the architecture behind the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Attendees will gain clarity on how the 8.6-year cycle operates, how public and private waves alternate, and how political change and economic instability align with measurable timing arrays. This session connects the dots between war cycles, sovereign debt crises, currency realignments, and civil unrest. It is designed for those who want to understand the “why” behind global shifts and the structural timing that drives them.

An Evening with Martin Armstrong Live (6:30 pm | Simon Fraser University Downtown Campus)

The day concludes with Martin Armstrong in person. This live discussion with Michael Campbell, who many of you will remember from past World Economic Conferences, will address the broader challenges facing the Western world. Explore topics such as the sovereign debt crisis, inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, NATO tensions, capital migration, and the transformation of monetary systems. Armstrong will speak candidly about where we stand in the cycle and what that means as we approach the next major turning points.

Together, these three sessions provide attendees with tactical strategy in the morning, structural economic understanding in the afternoon, and big-picture geopolitical and financial forecasting in the evening.

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The 2026 World Outlook Financial Conference will be more than just a conference. It will be a full immersion into the models shaping the global outlook.

Click the button below to learn more about webinars with Erwin Pletsch:

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Click on the button below to learn more about the 2026 World Outlook Financial Conference:

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