Posted Apr 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
We are staring in the face of a serious food crisis in Europe as food prices rise continuously, and with further draconian COVID measures within the EU, they are bringing the food supply chains to a standstill. Our models have been warned that this 8.6-year cyclical wave into 2024 will be one of commodity inflation due to SHORTAGES rather than speculative demand. All the indications that the world is heading for a serious food price crisis are in play. The Food Price Index (FFPI) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) averaged 107.5 points in December 2020, an increase of 2.3 points (2.2%) compared to November 2020, which represents an increase for the seventh consecutive month.
With the exception of sugar, all sub-indices of the FFPI recorded slight gains in December, with the sub-index for vegetable oil again rising the most, followed by that for dairy products, meat, and cereals. For 2020 as a whole, the FFPI averaged 97.9 points, a three-year high, 2.9 points (3.1%) higher than in 2019, but still well below its 2011 high of 131.9 points. It is also interesting that the FFPI in 2002 was still 53.1 points. It only increased significantly from the financial crisis of 2007/08, only to then level off in the 90-point range. Since May 2020 it has increased by 18%.
Our models project that the upward trend in the FFPI will intensify going into 2024. With the coronavirus mutating, as we warned ALL viruses do, as such, we have these various strains from Africa, Brazil, UK, and even California, are inspiring politicians to use this as an opportunity to restrict the population even further. These corona measures have extended to the food supply chains, disrupting them just as we see in electronics. For example, the German Fruit Trade Association sees the supply of fruit and vegetables from abroad is at a substantial risk whereby imports are suspended. The reason is the tightening of the corona entry regulation by the federal government. The tightening of the lockdown in Europe is beginning to restrict the supply chains reducing the food supply.
Then there is talk that a cyber attack would have particularly destructive and dangerous effects on food security, not to mention so much more. The danger of cyber attacks on the German power grid is already being choreographed by the World Economic Forum, which will also take down the banking sector in addition to the food supply. Curiously, there was the same type of meeting in October 2019 laying out the response to a virus. Do they have premonitions of the future, or is there a devious plan to reduce the population and CO2 cleverly pulling off mass genocide as some now believe? Such conspiracy theories emerge whenever you have secret meetings and groups of elites who pontificate from above to the lower beings, who they consider the Great Unwashed.
What is clear is that if we see a significant food shortage, that will also lead to major social unrest and political upheaval would be the result. The mismanagement of the EU government may in fact be their undoing. After all, in the course of the current crisis mismanagement as people have lost jobs and told to stay at home or else, their purchasing power has also decreased simultaneously. This is the worst of all possible outcomes and it is why I question are the leaders really this stupid, or are they devious?
The world is by no means prepared for a food crisis. In major cities, the crisis becomes paramount. In Germany, for example, the VAT stands at 19% for basic food and other everyday items. The European high income-taxes and drastically high VAT taxes further reduce the purchasing power of the common citizen. Add to that the problem of distributing food in a crisis in cities. It has long been realized that even cities like New York have at best a 7-day food supply. A crisis that becomes prolonged will result in a collapse of civil order.
Naturally, the government will blame speculators for driving up food prices rather than their own policies. Speculators only follow the trend — they never make a trend. There is not enough speculative capital to convert any market from a bearish trend into a bull market. Additionally, what tends to support conspiracy theories is that now Bill Gates is the largest owner of farmland in the United States. He also had all the health organizations in his pocket from the WHO to the United States CDC on top of having an interest in every pharmaceutical company, which is getting $12 per dose in addition to pushing meat alternatives and pushing climate change with the goal of zero CO2.
There is no question that the upward trend in prices has been set in motion by the coronavirus restrictions. There are plenty of videos of farmers who have to plow under their crops or kill livestock because they could not get their product to market. Still, governments will blame speculators pointing to the liberalization of commodity futures in the USA, which took place in the 1990s, enabling financial companies to enter the market on a large scale. While they will point to the speculators, they also buy the risk from farmers selling forward their crops, allowing the food production to increase. Indeed, futures contracts are one of the oldest instruments and date back to Babylonian times where such contracts have survived.
Governments are already starting to blame the speculators arguing that even back in 2002, 11 times the actual available amount of wheat was traded here. Look at 2011, the ratio of trades to the supply was 73 times the actually existing amount. These speculative transactions with food are inherently driven by actual supply and demand. Governments point to algorithms of the computers that dominate trading lead to increasing fluctuations. Totally ignored has been that we have lost more than 100,000 farms between 2011 and 2018; 12,000 of those between 2017 and 2018 alone. The headline in Time Magazine: “‘They’re Trying to Wipe Us Off the Map.’ Small American Farmers Are Nearing Extinction.” (NOVEMBER 27, 2019). Between taxing the rich and over-regulation, small farmers have become an endangered species as Bill Gates buys up all the land.
As the economic instability unleashed by these politicians and their draconian measures over the coronavirus continues, they will further exacerbate the risk of a total collapse of the supply chains which will include food as well as goods accelerating inflation caused by a decline in supply.
Meanwhile, there is a rush to vaccinate everyone against a disease that is no more lethal than the flu. The number of deaths with COVID has been so exaggerated that either our politicians are the stupidest people in the entire world, or they are the most devious. During the Spanish Flu in 1918, the death toll was about 50 million. However, the population was 1.6 billion. That worked out to 3.125%. Total, the world population is about 7.8 billion even a death count of 2 million is only 0.02564%. This is by no means justifiable to destroy the world economy.
The mainstream press simply cheers on the lockdowns and terrorizes the public. It is starting to surface that vaccinations will not prevent someone from contracting COVID, and may even endanger them more as one of the new strains devastates the population, while the pharmaceutical companies are immunity from any liability. At Nuremberg, all world leaders agreed to ban any such medical experiments on the population that had not been tested previously on animals. The vaccines being injected into people were never tested on even rats or mice.